Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company is facing short-term operational pressure, but the duty-free business continues to expand [1][10]. - The company operates 79 large retail stores across seven major economic regions in China, actively expanding its footprint in shopping centers and outlets [10]. - The report projects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 111 billion, 122 billion, and 131 billion respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -9.3%, 9.8%, and 7.6% [10]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.464 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.61%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 134 million yuan, an increase of 2.53% [5][6]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 38.29%, down 1.09 percentage points from the previous year [6][8]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 8.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.27% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 40.17% [6][10]. Business Segment Analysis - By business segment in the first three quarters of 2024, department store revenue was 3.242 billion yuan (down 15.45%), shopping center revenue was 2.254 billion yuan (down 1.58%), outlet revenue was 1.650 billion yuan (up 4.37%), specialty store revenue was 1.078 billion yuan (down 4.97%), and duty-free revenue was 204 million yuan (up 68.62%) [7][11]. - Regionally, South China saw revenue of 312 million yuan (up 13.64%), Northeast China 365 million yuan (up 7.91%), East China 455 million yuan (down 2.93%), and Southwest China 1.753 billion yuan (down 14.75%) [7][12]. Expense and Profitability Analysis - The company's expense ratio increased by 2.63 percentage points in Q3 2024, with a sales expense ratio of 16.35% and a management expense ratio of 13.02% [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 134 million yuan, with a significant drop in non-recurring net profit by 70.54% [8][10]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report estimates earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 to be 0.47 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25-30 times for 2025, leading to a reasonable value range of 15.63 to 18.75 yuan per share [10][15]. - The company is expected to maintain a net profit margin of around 4.9% to 6.4% over the next few years, with a return on equity projected to rise from 2.7% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2026 [15][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Oracle (ORCL.N) is "Outperform" [5] Core Views - The report highlights steady quarterly growth, driven by cloud and licensing business momentum. For FY2025 Q1, revenue reached $13.307 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.86%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at $2.929 billion, up 21.03% year-on-year [5][8] - The cloud and licensing revenue for FY2025 Q1 was $11.389 billion, representing a 9.97% increase year-on-year and accounting for 85.59% of total revenue [5][8] - The report emphasizes that acquisitions will be a significant part of the company's strategy, with a current 29% stake in Ampere Computing Holdings LLC [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2023, total revenue was $49.954 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17.7%. The projected revenues for FY2024, FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are $52.961 billion, $58.571 billion, $66.524 billion, and $77.187 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 6.0%, 10.6%, 13.6%, and 16.0% [7][8] - Net profit for FY2023 was $8.503 billion, with projections of $10.467 billion, $11.899 billion, $13.940 billion, and $16.544 billion for the following years, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 26.6%, 23.1%, 13.7%, and 17.1% [7][8] - The report forecasts an EPS of $3.13 for FY2023, increasing to $3.80, $4.29, $5.03, and $5.97 in the subsequent years [7][8] Business Segment Breakdown - The cloud and licensing segment is expected to generate revenues of $44.464 billion in FY2024, with a year-on-year growth of 8.22%, and projected to reach $68.181 billion by FY2027 [10] - Hardware revenue is projected to decline slightly in FY2024 to $3.066 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.35%, but expected to recover to $3.250 billion by FY2027 [10] - Service revenue is expected to be $5.431 billion in FY2024, with a slight decline of 2.91%, but projected to grow to $5.756 billion by FY2027 [10]

[Table_AuthorInfo] | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------| | 股票数据 | | | 1 [ 1 T 月 ab 1 l 3 e 日 _S 收 t 盘 o 价 ck （ In H f K o D ] ） | 7.06 | | 52 周股价波动（HKD） | 4.01-7.55 | | 总股本（亿股） | 43.19 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元 HKD ） | 312/312 | | 相关研究 | | | [ 《 T 统 a 一 bl 企 e_ 业 R 中 e 国 p （ o 0 r 2 t 2 In 0） fo 半 ] 续维持良好成长性，盈利能力大幅修复》 2024.08.11 | 年报点评：饮料继 | | 《2023 年年报点评：盈利能力&分红提升，期 待 24 年收入增速复苏》 2024.03.08 | | | 《单三季度 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company's profitability remains robust, with significant loan growth and stable net interest margin. The ratio of overdue loans and loans under scrutiny has decreased quarter-on-quarter, leading to the maintenance of the "Outperform the Market" rating [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue growth rate was -1.39%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company grew by -0.69%. In Q3 2024, revenue increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and net profit increased by 1.2% year-on-year, showing improvement compared to Q2 2024 [3] - The net increase in loans for Q3 2024 was 174.4 billion, with retail loans increasing by 73.9 billion and corporate loans increasing by 82.2 billion. Year-on-year growth rates for retail and corporate loans were 8.2% and 6.5%, respectively [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for Q3 2024 was 1.32%, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter. The provision coverage ratio was 203.87%, indicating sufficient risk coverage. The proportion of loans under scrutiny decreased by 8 basis points to 1.58%, and overdue loans decreased by 6 basis points to 1.39% [4] Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.28%, remaining stable. In Q3 2024, the net interest margin was 1.23%, a decrease of 2 basis points quarter-on-quarter. The yield on interest-earning assets decreased by 7 basis points, while the cost of interest-bearing liabilities decreased by 17 basis points, indicating a favorable trend in funding costs [4] Valuation and Forecast - The forecasted EPS for 2024-2026 is 1.1, 1.12, and 1.15 yuan, with net profit growth rates of -3.56%, 1.42%, and 2.81%, respectively. The reasonable value based on the DDM model is 9.2 yuan, and the PB-ROE model gives a 2024E PB valuation of 0.65 times, leading to a reasonable value range of 8.47-9.2 yuan [5][6]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/商业贸易/卖场与超市 证券研究报告 家家悦（603708）公司季报点评 2024 年 11 月 14 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------|----------------| | 股票数据 | | | 11 [ Table_StockInfo 月 14 日收盘价（元） ] | 10.63 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 7.40-15.08 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 638/599 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 6786/6372 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《 1H24 收入增 3% 净利降 9% | ，内蒙古盈利释 | | 放》 2024.09.21 | | | 《 1Q24 收入增 6% 净利增 7% | ，供应链变革初 | | 显成效》 2024.05.30 | | 市 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Views - In October, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 52.9%, an increase of 15 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The production of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.379 million units, a year-on-year increase of 49.9% and a month-on-month increase of 12.6%. Retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.196 million units, up 56.7% year-on-year and 6.4% month-on-month. Wholesale sales reached 1.369 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 55.2% and a month-on-month increase of 11.2% [2][3]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In October, major manufacturers' new energy vehicle deliveries included BYD with 500,500 units (up 66.2% year-on-year), SAIC with 157,100 units (up 51.08%), and others like Li Auto and NIO showing increases of 27.3% and 30.5% respectively [3]. Battery Production and Installation - The production of power and other batteries in October grew by 36.8%, with a total output of 113.1 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 45.5%. The installation of power batteries reached 59.2 GWh, up 51.0% year-on-year [3]. Key Battery Developments - LG Energy signed a long-term supply agreement for 50.5 GWh of batteries with Mercedes-Benz, while CATL entered a strategic partnership with Taiyuan Heavy Industry. Additionally, LG Energy secured two contracts with Ford for a total of 109 GWh of battery supply starting in 2026 [4]. Solid-State Battery Technology Updates - The first domestic solid-state lithium battery production line has commenced operations, with several companies, including Renault and Jiangxi Yili, advancing their solid-state battery projects. Notably, a new solid-state battery product was jointly launched by Tablue New Energy and Changan Automobile [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining focus on domestic lithium battery manufacturers' bidding situations and continues to recommend companies like Xian Dao Intelligent, Hangke Technology, and others that collaborate with quality battery manufacturers [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a clear policy shift, with domestic demand gradually stabilizing, suggesting that current investments should balance supply-side and demand-side considerations, focusing on two main directions: recovery sectors and emerging sectors [2]. - Key areas of focus include industrial gases, engineering machinery, automation, and new technologies such as humanoid robots and photovoltaic equipment [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Sector Review - The mechanical sector's overall valuation is at the 51.10% percentile historically, with a PE ratio of 36.99x and a PB ratio of 2.35x as of November 8, 2024 [6]. - The overall holding ratio for the mechanical sector is 2.18%, with significant holdings in service robots and 3C equipment [6]. 2. Policy Shift - Continuous fiscal policies are being implemented to support the real estate market and local government debt resolution, with significant increases in local government debt resources [15]. - The report highlights the importance of counter-cyclical fiscal policies and the stabilization of the real estate market [15]. 3. Investment Strategy Recovery Sectors - **Industrial Gases**: The market is expected to see a rebound in both volume and price, with liquid gas prices stabilizing [2]. - **Engineering Machinery**: Domestic sales are showing signs of recovery due to counter-cyclical policies, with excavator sales in September 2024 increasing by 10.8% year-on-year [17]. - **Automation**: Demand is gradually recovering, with a shift in focus towards traditional industries and 3C sectors [25]. Emerging Sectors - **New Technologies**: Focus on humanoid robots, digital printing, and photovoltaic technologies, with recommendations for companies like Honghua Digital and Greentech [3]. - **New Markets**: Emphasis on global competitiveness in industrial products, particularly in oil and gas equipment and high-altitude work platforms [3]. 4. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies within the mechanical sector, highlighting their market positions and growth potential [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The report highlights significant improvements in profitability, with a 69.27% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters of 2024, despite a 6.21% decline in revenue [5][6] - The company has effectively reduced costs and improved efficiency, leading to a gross margin increase of 10.35 percentage points in the pharmaceutical intermediates and raw materials segment [5] - The report anticipates revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 120.24 billion, 128.25 billion, and 138.36 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 85.93 billion yuan and a net profit of 9.55 billion yuan [5] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 39.69%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.81 percentage points [6] - The net profit margin for the same period was 13.96%, up by 5.25 percentage points year-on-year [6] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its integrated supply chain for raw materials and formulations, with new products added to its portfolio [7] - It has successfully improved its research and development capabilities, with a notable increase in the number of approved projects [7] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is 11.73 billion yuan for 2024, with expected growth rates of 69.5%, 17.5%, and 15.4% for the following years [8][11] - The report provides a valuation range for the company, estimating a reasonable value between 15.41 and 19.52 yuan per share based on a P/E ratio of 15-19x for 2025 [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Merchants Bank (CMB) [1][3] Core Views - CMB's Q3 2024 net profit attributable to parent company turned positive, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [4] - Asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.94%, unchanged from the previous quarter [4] - Net interest margin (NIM) narrowed, with Q3 2024 NIM at 1.92%, up 1bp from the previous quarter [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 0.6% [4] - Core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increased by 1.36 percentage points year-on-year to 14.73% [4] - Provision coverage ratio was 432.15%, down 2.27 percentage points from the previous quarter [4] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 5.74, 5.92, and 6.16 yuan, respectively [5] - The reasonable value range for CMB is estimated to be 40.48-46.88 yuan, based on DDM and PB-ROE models [5] Industry Comparison - CMB's 2024E PB ratio is 1.00x, higher than the industry average of 0.48x [7] - The average ROE for comparable companies in 2023 was 9.92%, while CMB's ROE was 16.55% [7] Key Financial Metrics - Net interest income for 2024E is projected to be 210.521 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.93% [16] - Loan growth for 2024E is expected to be 3.85%, while deposit growth is projected at 7.00% [16] - The cost-to-income ratio for 2024E is forecasted to be 29.50%, down from 32.96% in 2023 [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the aviation industry, indicating expected returns above the market benchmark by over 10% [29]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is entering a favorable demand-supply cycle, which has historically driven stock performance upward [1]. - Domestic air travel demand has shown resilience, with passenger turnover exceeding pre-pandemic levels, indicating a strong recovery trend [5]. - The supply side is facing constraints due to slow aircraft deliveries and an aging fleet, which will limit capacity expansion in the coming years [10][13][16]. Summary by Sections Demand - Domestic air travel demand has recovered significantly, with passenger turnover reaching 708.9 billion passenger-kilometers in December 2023, surpassing 2019 levels by 6.2% [5]. - International routes are also seeing accelerated recovery as countries ease visa restrictions, with expectations for further demand growth as group travel resumes [8]. Supply - The introduction of new aircraft is slowing down due to supply chain issues and the impact of the pandemic, leading to a cautious approach in capacity expansion [10][13]. - The average age of aircraft in major airlines is high, with Air China having an average age of 9.36 years, which may necessitate the retirement of older planes in the near future [16]. Short-term and Long-term Recommendations - Short-term focus should be on smaller airlines, while long-term investment is recommended in airlines with strong network capabilities, such as Air China, which has a well-structured domestic route network [21].