江 研究早观点 2024 年 10 月 30 日 星期三 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 【行业评论】化学原料：新材料周报（241021-1025）-风电企业签署《自 律公约》，英威达己二胺工厂停止关停 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------|----------| | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | | 3,286.41 | -1.08 | | | 10,543.33 | -1.33 | | 300 | 3,924.65 | -1.00 | | | 6,564.15 | -0.62 | | | 2,177.31 | -2.32 | | 50 | 975.37 | -1.13 | 指数 上证指数 深证成指 沪深 中小板指 创业板指 科创 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【山证新股】新股周报（1028-1101）：新股首日涨幅维持高位，二级 市场空间仍受压缩 【行业评论】通信：山西证券通信行业周观点：智谱发布 AutoGLM 催化 agent ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the new materials sector [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector has shown strong performance, with the new materials index increasing by 6.96%, outperforming the ChiNext index which rose by 4.97% [1]. - Wind power companies have signed a self-discipline convention, which is expected to support prices in the sector. The consensus among 12 wind turbine manufacturers aims to resist vicious low-price competition, potentially improving supply dynamics and alleviating the downward trend in wind turbine prices [1]. - The demand for wind power remains robust, with domestic project bids for wind turbine manufacturers reaching 76.59 GW in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 97.40% [1]. - The report suggests focusing on the wind power industry chain, highlighting companies such as "Times New Material" and "Meijia Xincai" as potential investment opportunities [1]. Market Performance - The new materials sector has experienced significant gains across various sub-sectors over the past week, including: - Synthetic biology index up by 8.84% - Semiconductor materials up by 16.03% - Electronic chemicals up by 7.58% - Degradable plastics up by 6.61% - Industrial gases up by 9.28% - Battery chemicals up by 16.99% [1][12]. Industry Data Tracking - The report includes price tracking for various chemical raw materials, with notable prices such as: - Valine at 12,600 CNY/ton (unchanged) - Arginine at 30,000 CNY/ton (unchanged) - Tryptophan at 54,500 CNY/ton (unchanged) - Methionine at 19,950 CNY/ton (down 0.99%) [1]. - Prices for biodegradable materials such as PLA (injection grade) are at 18,800 CNY/ton (unchanged) and PBS at 20,500 CNY/ton (unchanged) [1]. Industry News - The report notes that BASF has postponed the resumption of VE and VA production, and the market regulatory authority is supporting the development of the synthetic biology industry [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth and continuous improvement in profitability, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 2.67% and a net profit increase of 5.48% for the first three quarters of 2024 [2][3] - The company aims to enhance its operational efficiency by focusing on improving its profit margins, achieving a gross margin increase of 0.42 percentage points to 29.71% and a net margin increase of 0.4 percentage points to 15.02% [3] - As a core supplier in the aerospace control systems sector, the company is expected to benefit from the high demand in the aerospace industry driven by increased defense spending and the rapid development of civil aviation [3] Financial Data and Valuation - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 42.10 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.29 billion yuan [2] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.61, 0.68, and 0.77 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 39.8, 35.5, and 31.5 [3] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 150.32 billion yuan in 2022 to 189.46 billion yuan by 2026, indicating a solid growth trajectory [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6]. Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 18.12% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 3.047 billion yuan [3][4]. - The net profit for the same period increased by 18.77% year-on-year, amounting to 670 million yuan [3][4]. - The company is accelerating its layout in the new energy vehicle (NEV) aftermarket business, planning to invest up to 900 million yuan to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary focused on automotive aftermarket technical services and NEV-specific detection equipment [2][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 42.21% and a net margin of 23.50%, with a slight decrease in gross margin compared to the previous year [4]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) was reported at 10.03%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.77 percentage points [4]. - The revenue from the automotive technical services segment reached 2.591 billion yuan, accounting for 85.03% of total revenue, while the equipment manufacturing segment generated 456 million yuan, making up 14.97% [4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the growing trend of R&D investment in the automotive industry, particularly in the context of the development of new energy and intelligent connected vehicles [6]. - The projected net profits for the years 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 951 million yuan, 1.098 billion yuan, and 1.291 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [6][8]. - The establishment of the new subsidiary is anticipated to enhance the company's core competitiveness and open new growth avenues in the automotive aftermarket services [5][6].

Industry Rating - The report maintains a **Leading Market-A** rating for the communication industry [1] Core Views - **AutoGLM by Zhipu AI** introduces a new era of human-computer interaction, enabling tasks like ordering food, sending messages, and writing reviews through a self-evolving framework WEBRL [1] - **AI agents** are evolving rapidly, with capabilities extending to IoT, smart glasses, XR, and smart home devices, driving demand for local NPU upgrades [1] - **CPO (Co-Packaged Optics)** is gaining attention as a key technology for future optical communication, with leading optical module manufacturers expected to play a significant role in the CPO supply chain [1][12] Market Performance - The communication sector saw a **3.03% increase** in the Shenwan Communication Index, outperforming major indices like the Shenzhen Component Index (+2.53%) and the Shanghai Composite Index (+1.17%) [15] - **Controller sector** led the gains with a **20.4% weekly increase**, followed by optical cable and submarine cable (+7.6%) and wireless RF (+7.5%) [15] - Top-performing stocks included **Changguang Huaxin (+21.02%)**, **Zhongtian Technology (+11.75%)**, and **Cambridge Technology (+11.34%)** [15] Key Companies to Watch - **Edge IoT**: Companies like Quectel, Fibocom, and Meig Smart are highlighted for their potential in the IoT agent space [14] - **CPO**: Key players include **InnoLight**, **Eoptolink**, and **TFC Optical**, which are expected to benefit from the CPO evolution [14] - **Satellite Internet**: Companies like **Shanghai Hanxun** and **Tianyin Electromechanical** are noted for their advancements in satellite communication [14] AI and Agent Development - **AI agents** are advancing to Level 3 AI capabilities, enabling tool usage and complex problem-solving, which is expected to drive sustained growth in AI infrastructure investment [11] - **Zhipu AI's AutoGLM** is a significant development, with potential applications in IoT and multi-modal AI, combining edge and cloud agent capabilities [1] CPO Technology - **CPO** is seen as a solution to challenges in high-speed data transmission, with **NVIDIA** expected to launch its first CPO-based switch in 2025 [12] - Leading optical module manufacturers are expected to maintain their importance in the CPO supply chain due to their expertise in silicon photonics and customer understanding [12] Global Trends - **Marvell** announced price increases across its product lines due to surging AI demand, effective January 2025 [34] - **Microsoft** significantly increased its orders for NVIDIA's GB200 chips, becoming the largest customer for Blackwell architecture GPUs [34] - **Intel** and **Samsung** are exploring collaboration in the foundry business, potentially reshaping the semiconductor supply chain [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the new materials sector [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector has shown strong performance, with the new materials index increasing by 6.96%, outperforming the ChiNext index which rose by 4.97% [1]. - The wind power industry is experiencing a positive shift as 12 wind turbine manufacturers signed a self-discipline convention to combat price competition, which is expected to stabilize prices [1]. - The demand for wind power is robust, with a significant increase in project wins, indicating a potential recovery in industry profitability [1]. Market Performance - The new materials sector saw various sub-sectors perform well, including: - Synthetic biology index up by 8.84% - Semiconductor materials up by 16.03% - Electronic chemicals up by 7.58% - Degradable plastics up by 6.61% - Industrial gases up by 9.28% - Battery chemicals up by 16.99% [1][12]. Industry Chain Data Tracking - The report includes price tracking for various chemical raw materials, indicating stability or slight changes in prices for amino acids, biodegradable materials, vitamins, and industrial gases [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the wind power industry supply chain, highlighting specific companies such as "Shidai New Materials" and "Maijia Xincai" as potential investment opportunities [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on expected performance [2][4]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for OLED materials, with a significant growth in revenue and profit expected due to the expansion of OLED technology into various applications [3][4]. - The company has successfully achieved stable mass production of Red Prime and Green Host materials, with new products like Red Host expected to enter mass production soon [3][4]. - The financial forecasts for the company show a substantial increase in earnings per share (EPS) from 0.48 in 2024 to 1.09 in 2026, reflecting strong growth potential [2][4]. Market Performance - As of October 2024, the company's stock closed at 21.11 yuan, with a year-to-date high of 25.35 yuan and a low of 13.62 yuan [1]. - The company achieved a market capitalization of 84.95 billion yuan, with a circulating A-share market value of 37.75 billion yuan [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 356 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 79.91%, and a net profit of 130 million yuan, up 131.70% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 66.39%, an increase of 2.79 percentage points compared to the previous year, driven by product iterations and scale effects [3][4]. - The net profit margin improved to 36.43%, reflecting a decrease in expense ratios due to rapid revenue growth [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of OLED technology in consumer electronics, with major panel manufacturers investing in new production lines [3][4]. - The financial projections indicate a strong growth trajectory, with revenues expected to reach 546 million yuan in 2024 and 1.16 billion yuan by 2026 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the electronics industry [4][45]. Core Insights - The overall market saw an increase during the week of October 21-25, 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.17%, Shenzhen Component Index by 2.53%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.00% [12][14]. - Nvidia has refined its Blackwell product line, with the B300 series expected to start shipping in Q2 to Q3 of 2025, reflecting confidence from large cloud service providers in future AI applications [4][42]. - Huawei officially launched its native HarmonyOS NEXT, marking a significant step towards self-controlled operating systems in China, with over 1 billion devices in the Harmony ecosystem [4][42]. - Tesla reported Q3 2024 revenues of $25.182 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, with significant growth in energy revenue [4][42]. Market Overview - The overall market performance for the week included a 2.14% increase in the Shenwan Electronics Index and a 4.68% rise in the Wind Semiconductor Index [12][14]. - The top-performing sectors included discrete devices (+9.29%), optical optoelectronics (+6.63%), and other electronics (+5.98%) [12][14]. Company Performance - Notable stock performances included Fulede (+129.62%), Lierda (+126.91%), and Hualing Co. (+88.45%) [20]. - Companies like Lexin Technology and Zhaoyi Innovation reported significant revenue growth in Q3 2024, with increases of 49.96% and 42.83% respectively [4][3]. Industry News - Nvidia's product line adjustments are expected to cater to the performance needs of large cloud service providers, indicating a strategic focus on AI applications [4][42]. - The semiconductor industry anticipates a rebound in wafer shipments in 2025, driven by increasing demand from AI and advanced manufacturing applications [42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue and profit in Q3 2024, with a revenue of 15.04 billion yuan, up 11.86% year-on-year and 4.99% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.56 billion yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.57% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.43% [2][3]. - The company is experiencing significant growth in automotive electronics and energy storage, with revenues in these segments increasing by 90.7% year-on-year [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 41.95 billion yuan, a 14.13% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.24 billion yuan, up 30.71% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross profit margin has been steadily improving, with a projected gross margin of 35.4% for 2024 [4][6]. - The company’s operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 4.58 billion yuan in Q3 2024, compared to 2.94 billion yuan in Q3 2023 [3][6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 8.87 billion yuan, 11.20 billion yuan, and 14.14 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.10 yuan, 1.39 yuan, and 1.75 yuan for the same years [4][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.8 for 2024, decreasing to 16.2 by 2026 [4][6]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.5 in 2024 to 2.6 in 2026 [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue growth due to the recovery of orders from sports brands, continuous progress in new customer collaborations, and a steady increase in market share with major clients [3][4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.511 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.39%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.843 billion yuan, up 24.32% year-on-year [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was 17.511 billion yuan, with quarterly revenues of 4.765 billion, 6.707 billion, and 6.039 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth rates of 30.15%, 20.83%, and 18.50% respectively [1][3] - The company sold 163 million pairs of shoes in the same period, a year-on-year increase of 20.36%, with an average selling price of approximately 107 yuan per pair, up 2.1% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 increased by 2.5 percentage points to 27.8%, with quarterly margins of 28.4%, 28.1%, and 27.0% [2] - The net profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 16.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, although Q3 saw a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points [2] - The company’s operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 was 4.251 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.55% [2] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 3.34, 3.91, and 4.50 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.7, 17.7, and 15.4 based on the closing price of 69.33 yuan on October 28 [3][4]