农林牧渔 农业行业周报 同步大市-A(维持) 建议关注生猪养殖股的预期差机会 ·农林牧渔 ·沪深300 资料来源：最闻 2024 年 11 月 7 日 行业研究/行业周报 本周（10 月 28 日-11 月 3 日）沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为-1.68%，农林牧渔 板块涨跌幅为+1.27%，板块排名第 10，子行业中种子、水产养殖、果蔬加 工、动物保健、畜禽饲料表现位居前五。 本周（10 月 28 日-11 月 3 日）猪价环比下跌。根据跟踪的重点省市猪 价 来 看 ， 截 至 11 月 1 日 ， 四 川 / 广 东 / 河 南 外 三 元 生 猪 均 价 分 别 为 17.29/18.45/17.12 元/公斤，环比上周分别-1.98%/-2.38%/-1.44%；平均猪肉价 格为 24.44 元/公斤，环比上周下跌 0.93%；仔猪平均批发价格 25.29 元/公 斤，环比下跌 1.79%；二元母猪平均价格为 32.50 元/公斤，环比上周下跌 0.06%；自繁自养利润为 284.19 元/头，外购仔猪养殖利润为-32.88 元/头。 截至 11 月 1 日，白羽肉鸡周度价格为 7.64 元/公斤，环比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company Lao Baigan Jiu (600559.SH) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated effective cost control, leading to continuous profit improvement. For the first three quarters of 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 556 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.0%, while operating revenue was 4.088 billion yuan, up 6.29% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, with products priced above 100 yuan showing significant growth. The revenue from products priced above 100 yuan increased by 15.71% year-on-year [1] - The company is strategically enhancing its market share in mid-to-high-priced products within its local market, which is expected to provide further growth opportunities [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.088 billion yuan, with a net profit of 556 million yuan, reflecting a 33.0% increase year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 66.21%, with a net profit margin of 13.61%, indicating an improvement in profitability [1] - The company forecasts net profits of 831 million yuan, 967 million yuan, and 1.093 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.91 yuan, 1.06 yuan, and 1.19 yuan [2][1] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected operating revenue for 2024 is 5.699 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.4% [2] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 831 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [2] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 30.1 in 2023 to 24.1 in 2024, indicating a more attractive valuation [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yongtai Energy is "Accumulate-A" [4] Core Views - The company has shown a steady increase in electricity generation and sales, with a year-on-year increase of 11.27% in power generation and 11.35% in on-grid electricity [1] - The coal business has experienced a decrease in gross profit, but the electricity segment has compensated for this with an increase in gross profit [1][3] - The company is progressing with capacity expansion and resource acquisition projects, including the planned production of 3 million tons of coal from the Haizetang coal mine by June 2026 [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 22.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.464 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.85% [2] - The basic earnings per share (EPS) for the same period was 0.0660 yuan, down 9.71% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal decreased by 17.64% to 716.74 yuan per ton, while the cost per ton was 350.08 yuan, resulting in a gross profit margin of 51.16% [3] Future Projections - The company expects EPS to be 0.09, 0.11, and 0.14 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.9, 14.0, and 11.0 [4] - The company maintains a development strategy focused on coal and electricity, with an emphasis on energy storage as a growth area [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 13.81% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with total revenue reaching 55.13 billion yuan and a net profit of 20.06 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.19% [4][5]. - Despite a slowdown in growth in Q3 due to weak demand during the holiday season, the company’s mid-to-high-end liquor sales remain stable, indicating potential for future growth [5][6]. - The company is focusing on its "Dongcang" series, which is expected to continue gaining traction as consumer preferences shift towards higher-end products [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a net profit margin of 36.37%, slightly down from the previous quarter but still showing an improvement year-on-year [6]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 75.84%, up by 2.88 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the growth in mid-to-high-end liquor products [6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 3.39 yuan, with expected net profits of 27.14 billion yuan, 31.42 billion yuan, and 36.54 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][9]. Market and Product Analysis - In Q3 2024, the company’s revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 12.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.12%, while revenue from ordinary liquor decreased by 9.16% [5]. - The company’s revenue from domestic markets was 11.16 billion yuan, up 6.85% year-on-year, indicating a solid domestic market presence [5]. - The company has been expanding its market presence in surrounding areas while maintaining a strong foothold in its home province [6].

Election Outcome and Political Landscape - Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election, defeating Democratic candidate Harris, leading to a Republican majority in the Senate and potential control of the House[1] - The shift in voter demographics, particularly among Latino and Black male voters, contributed to Trump's victory, influenced by high inflation during the Democratic administration[1] Economic Policies and Projections - Trump's fiscal policies may lead to a projected federal deficit of 9.6% by FY 2035, excluding impacts from war, pandemic, and recession[1] - Proposed policies include reducing corporate tax rates to 15% for domestic production, extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and increasing tariffs on Chinese imports by 60%[1] Market Reactions and Asset Performance - On November 6, 30-year Treasury futures fell by 0.06%, while 10-year Treasury futures remained stable; the Shanghai Composite Index dipped 0.09%[1] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a significant decline of 2.23%, and the onshore USD/CNY exchange rate depreciated to approximately 7.16, with a volatility of 554 basis points[1] Global Market Implications - Trump's election is expected to tighten supply-side effects, benefiting U.S. stock markets due to lower corporate taxes and growth policies, particularly for small-cap and cyclical sectors[1] - Increased fiscal deficits and high tariffs may lead to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, while oil prices are anticipated to drop due to relaxed domestic energy regulations[1] Impact on A-shares and Hong Kong Market - A potential slowdown in Fed rate cuts could lead to capital outflows from A-shares, negatively affecting technology and consumer sectors[1] - Hong Kong stocks, heavily reliant on foreign capital, may face liquidity and valuation pressures, particularly in technology and finance sectors[1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-B" [1] Core Views - The price of valine is expected to stabilize, and attention should be paid to the volume of new product releases [1] - The company reported a revenue of 1.539 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.82%, but a net profit of 170 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 46.9% [1] - The average price of valine and myo-inositol in Q3 2024 was 13.66 yuan/kg and 46.86 yuan/kg, respectively, showing declines of 8.25% and 20.83% from Q2 2024 [1] - The demand for valine remains strong, with an expected production volume of 180,000 to 190,000 tons in 2024 [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to reach 2.281 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [2] - Net profit is expected to decline to 234 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 48.0% [2] - The gross margin is forecasted to be 29.5% in 2024, down from 40.5% in 2023 [2] - The diluted EPS for 2024 is estimated at 0.94 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 37.1 [2] Financial Ratios and Projections - The company’s ROE is projected to be 10.8% in 2024, with a gradual increase to 15.5% by 2026 [2] - The net profit margin is expected to be 10.2% in 2024, decreasing from 23.2% in 2023 [2] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 2.027 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.286 billion yuan by 2026 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 800 million yuan in Q3 2024, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.71% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.79%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 181 million yuan, down 9.84% year-on-year but up 9.06% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The export volume remained stable quarter-on-quarter, with an increase in the proportion of high-end products. In Q3 2024, China's cumulative export of lubricant additives was 69,500 tons, up 4.08% quarter-on-quarter, with an average export price of 20,234 yuan per ton, up 3.96% [4] - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a decrease in raw material costs, improving the company's profit quality. The average price of Brent crude oil in Q3 2024 was 76.39 USD per barrel, down 10.16% quarter-on-quarter, while the company's gross margin improved to 36.72%, up 0.75 percentage points [4] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 708 million, 879 million, and 967 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these years are 18.3, 14.7, and 13.4 times based on the market capitalization of 12.9 billion yuan as of November 5 [5] - The company’s revenue for 2024 is expected to be 3.154 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.0%. The net profit for the same year is projected to be 708 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [6]

研究早观点 2024 年 11 月 6 日 星期三 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 【行业评论】化学原料：新材料周报（241028-1101）-六部门发布《可 再生能源指导意见》，多政策出台支持合成生物发展 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-----------|----------| | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | 上证指数 | 3,386.99 | 2.32 | | 深证成指 | 11,006.94 | 3.22 | | 沪深 300 | 4,044.57 | 2.53 | | 中小板指 | 6,812.08 | 2.44 | | 创业板指 | 2,289.84 | 4.75 | | 科创 50 | 996.17 | 4.35 | 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【山证新材料】华秦科技 2024 年三季报点评-业绩稳健订单充沛，产 品条线储备丰富 【今日要点】 【行业评论】电子：山西证券电子行业周跟踪-苹果三季度业绩超预期， 海外厂商 AI 资本开支继续高企 【行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the communication industry [1]. Core Insights - North American cloud vendors continue to see a quarter-on-quarter increase in capital expenditures, with significant growth expected in 5G-A investments [1][3]. - Major tech companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are leveraging AI to enhance their cloud services, leading to substantial increases in their capital expenditures [1][2][3]. - The demand for optical modules is expected to benefit directly from the AI capital expenditure boom, with significant growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Viewpoint and Investment Suggestions - North American tech giants have reported significant AI-driven growth in their cloud businesses, with Microsoft projecting annualized AI revenue to reach $10 billion in Q4 [3][14]. - Amazon's Q3 capital expenditure was $21.3 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 88% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30% [1][15]. - Google reported a Q3 capital expenditure of $13 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 63% [2][16]. - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI servers, optical modules, and 5G-A technologies [1][19]. 2. Market Overview - The overall market experienced a decline during the week of October 28 to November 1, 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.84% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.55% [5][20]. - The communication sector saw a drop of 3.28%, while the entrepreneurial board fell by 5.14% [5][20]. 3. Industry Trends - Huawei is actively promoting 5G-A products, supported by government initiatives to encourage 5G-A construction and applications [4][18]. - The report highlights the expected significant growth in 5G-A investments by 2025, driven by increased demand from operators [4][18]. 4. Company News - Companies such as Industrial Fulian, Unisplendour, and Inspur Information are recommended for their involvement in AI servers, while optical module companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and New Yisheng are also highlighted [4][19]. - The report notes that the optical module market is expected to see sales growth of over 60% in 2024, with continued strong performance in 2025 [2][16].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Accumulate-A" based on expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by 5%-15% [10]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a 32.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 13.25 billion yuan, and a remarkable 2078.7% increase in net profit [2][10]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery in the market and its refined management strategies, particularly in the automotive, gateway, payment, and PC sectors [3][10]. - The introduction of new products and platforms, such as the industrial smart brand Baowita, is expected to enhance the company's market value and expand its service offerings [8][9]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.4% [2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 17.93%, slightly down by 0.44 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 2.84 percentage points to 2.62% [2][4]. - The company anticipates a recovery in profitability, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 expected to grow significantly, reaching 5.26 billion yuan in 2024, a 479.5% increase year-on-year [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company maintains a leading position in the global cellular IoT module market, with a market share of 36.5% in Q2 2024, driven by strong demand from China and India [3]. - The focus on edge AI applications and the development of intelligent modules and IoT platforms is expected to unlock new growth opportunities [9]. - The company is actively collaborating with Qualcomm to launch new AI intelligent module products, enhancing its capabilities in various industrial applications [9].