江 研究早观点 2024 年 10 月 31 日 星期四 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 【山证纺服】南山智尚 2024Q3 季报点评-3 季度精纺呢绒面料业务承压， 锦纶业务预计 11 月试生产 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-----------|----------| | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | | 3,266.24 | -0.61 | | | 10,530.85 | -0.12 | | 300 | 3,889.45 | -0.90 | | | 6,567.33 | 0.05 | | | 2,151.51 | -1.18 | | 50 | 958.82 | -1.70 | 指数 上证指数 深证成指 沪深 中小板指 创业板指 科创 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【山证非银】行业周报（20241021-20241027）-收益凭证办法落地， 关注业绩披露期超预期可能 【山证机械】思维列控（603508.SH）2024 年三季报点评-Q3 业绩 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Kingsoft Office (688111.SH) [1][2] Core Views - The personal subscription business shows steady growth, while the institutional subscription business faces short-term pressure due to the ongoing SaaS transformation [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 3.627 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.90%, and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, up 16.41% year-on-year [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.214 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.53%, and a net profit of 318 million yuan, up 8.33% year-on-year [1][2] - The personal office service subscription revenue for Q3 2024 was 762 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.24%, driven by continuous upgrades of WPS AI 2.0 [2] - Institutional subscription and service revenue for Q3 2024 was 248 million yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.02% year-on-year, attributed to the limited revenue recognition during the SaaS transformation [2] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 85.47%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points year-on-year [2] Research and Development - R&D expenses reached 454 million yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.54%, reflecting the company's commitment to enhancing AI and collaborative office solutions [2][3] Future Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2024-2026 to 3.22, 3.96, and 4.88 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 80.30, 65.35, and 52.96 [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add-A" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, driven by a significant increase in orders and project acceptance. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 906 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.83%, and a net profit of 328 million yuan, up 33.98% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing demand for stock updates and technological upgrades in the rail transit equipment sector, with a stable industry landscape supporting sustainable revenue growth [3][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 347 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.16%, and a net profit of 138 million yuan, up 94.21% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 64.73%, an increase of 2.19 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 39.7%, up 3.95 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 246 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.13% [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 537 million yuan, 645 million yuan, and 769 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 30.2%, 20.3%, and 19.1% [3][6]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 1.41 yuan, 1.69 yuan, and 2.02 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.8, 13.9, and 11.7 [3][6]. Market Position and Product Demand - The company holds a market share of over 49% for its LKJ system, with a significant replacement demand expected as the lifecycle of existing systems approaches its end [1][2]. - The railway safety business and high-speed rail segments are also anticipated to maintain growth, supported by increasing demand for product upgrades and technological advancements [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 6-12 months [3][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 was 1.163 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.52%. However, Q3 saw a slight decline in revenue, primarily due to pressure on domestic consumption affecting the fine woolen fabric segment [1][3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing the added value of its products through functional research and development in fine woolen fabrics, which is expected to maintain an upward trend in profit margins [1][4]. - The nylon project is anticipated to achieve large-scale trial production in November, which will begin customer validation and gradually lead to sales [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 125 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.83%. The quarterly net profits were 37 million, 45 million, and 42 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 15.37%, 0.22%, and -1.00% respectively [1][3]. - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 33.45%, with quarterly margins of 32.83%, 34.59%, and 32.80% [2][4]. - The company’s operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 was 31 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 252.96% [2][4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.58, 0.65, and 0.73 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.6, 15.8, and 14.0 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market" for the non-bank financial industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the benchmark index by more than 10% [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in the performance of several securities firms due to improved liquidity in the secondary market and rising asset prices, with notable profit increases of 203.85% for Hongta Securities and 63.10% for Shichuang Securities [13]. - The introduction of the "Securities Company Income Certificate Issuance Management Measures" is expected to standardize the issuance of income certificates, enhancing the ability of higher-rated securities firms to expand their balance sheets and meet investor asset allocation needs [12][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the clear positioning of income certificates and the implementation of classified management to control risks. The new regulations will limit the balance of income certificates based on the previous year's classification results, with A/B/C class balances not exceeding 60%/50%/40% of the company's net capital [12][26]. 2. Market Review - Major indices experienced varying degrees of increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.17%, the CSI 300 by 0.79%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.00%. The total A-share trading volume reached 9.55 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 1.91 trillion yuan, reflecting a 14.49% increase [18][14]. 3. Key Industry Data Tracking - As of October 25, the market's pledged shares totaled 3,346.73 million shares, accounting for 4.17% of the total equity. The margin trading balance was 1.66 trillion yuan, up 3.30% from the previous period [22]. - In September 2024, new fund issuance reached 870.88 billion shares, a 65.69% increase, with equity funds accounting for 251.50 billion shares, marking a 375.07% rise [23]. - The bond market saw the total price index increase by 2.67% since the beginning of the year, with the 10-year government bond yield at 2.15%, down 40.62 basis points [23]. 4. Regulatory Policies and Industry Dynamics - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration of log futures and options, aiming to ensure their smooth launch and operation [26]. - The new management measures for income certificates are expected to fill a regulatory gap and promote the proper use of debt financing tools by securities firms [12][26]. 5. Key Announcements from Listed Companies - Several securities firms reported their third-quarter results, with Shichuang Securities achieving a revenue of 1.853 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.81%, and a net profit growth of 63.10% [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the non-bank financial industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The introduction of the "Management Measures for the Issuance of Income Certificates by Securities Companies" by the China Securities Association on October 25 clarifies the positioning of income certificates as debt financing tools for securities companies, emphasizing risk control through classified management [8][18]. - The report highlights the potential for significant earnings growth among securities firms due to improved liquidity in the secondary market and rising asset prices, with notable increases in net profits for companies like Hongta Securities and Shichuang Securities [9][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of the newly implemented income certificate management measures, which are expected to enhance the operational capabilities of higher-rated securities firms and meet investor asset allocation needs [8]. 2. Market Review - Major indices experienced varying degrees of increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.17%, the CSI 300 by 0.79%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.00% during the week [12]. - The A-share trading volume reached 9.55 trillion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 1.91 trillion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 14.49% [12]. 3. Key Industry Data Tracking - As of October 25, the market's pledged shares totaled 3,346.73 million shares, accounting for 4.17% of the total share capital, while the margin trading balance stood at 1.66 trillion yuan, up 3.30% from the previous period [15]. - In September 2024, new fund issuance reached 870.88 billion shares, marking a 65.69% increase, with equity funds accounting for 251.50 billion shares, a staggering 375.07% increase [15]. 4. Regulatory Policies and Industry Dynamics - The report notes the approval of original wood futures and options by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, which aims to ensure a smooth launch and stable operation of these financial instruments [18]. - The income certificate issuance management measures are expected to fill a regulatory gap and standardize the use of debt financing tools in the industry [18]. 5. Key Announcements from Listed Companies - Notable earnings reports include: - Ruida Futures: Revenue of 1.669 billion yuan, up 104.66% year-on-year [18]. - Guoyuan Securities: Revenue of 5.055 billion yuan, up 2.46% year-on-year [18]. - Dongfang Fortune: Revenue of 7.304 billion yuan, down 13.96% year-on-year [18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next 6-12 months [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant profit growth, with a revenue of 1.087 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.48%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.422 billion yuan, up 15.10% year-on-year [1]. - The company benefits from favorable water conditions in its operational regions, which has positively impacted its electricity generation and pricing [1]. - Future capacity expansion is anticipated due to a recent capital increase in the Yalong River Hydropower project, which is expected to enhance the company's installed capacity [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.87 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.422 billion yuan, and a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.9133 yuan [1]. - The company’s revenue for Q3 2024 was 4.83 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 39.8% [1]. - The average on-grid electricity price for the company was 0.217 yuan/kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.93% [1]. - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.04 yuan, 1.12 yuan, and 1.20 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.2, 15.0, and 14.1 [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its stable operational performance, with ongoing projects likely to contribute to further profit growth. The company has a low debt ratio, which is on a declining trend, indicating financial stability [1]. - The capital increase in the Yalong River Hydropower project is projected to support future growth in installed capacity, enhancing the company's long-term prospects [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate - A" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company specializes in precision optics and is experiencing accelerated growth in its semiconductor business [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 375 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.33%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.54% to 24.49 million yuan [1]. - The semiconductor sector is expected to grow significantly, with a reported 46.12% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2023 [1]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a record quarterly revenue of 134 million yuan, up 11.25% year-on-year and 3.04% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 8.92 million yuan, a 15.76% increase year-on-year but a 21.0% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company’s basic earnings per share (EPS) for Q3 2024 was 0.46 yuan, with a net asset return rate of 2.11% [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 43 million yuan, 82 million yuan, and 154 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.81 yuan, 1.54 yuan, and 2.91 yuan [1]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024-2026 are 232.1, 121.0, and 64.2 respectively [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading provider of advanced precision optical solutions, focusing on sectors such as semiconductors, life sciences, and medical applications [1]. - The company aims to become a global leader in high-end optical technology innovation applications, leveraging its integrated system development capabilities [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for Wanhua Chemical [2][5][8] Core Views - Wanhua Chemical's revenue for Q3 2024 was 505.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.48%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29.41% year-on-year due to rising raw material costs and declining product prices [3][4] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 143.2 billion, 157.45 billion, and 187.68 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.56, 5.01, and 5.98 yuan [1][5] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, Wanhua Chemical achieved a revenue of 1,476.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.35%, while the net profit was 110.93 billion yuan, down 12.67% [2][3] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 15.38%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company reported a diluted EPS of 3.53 yuan and a return on equity (ROE) of 12.11% as of September 2024 [1][5] Sales and Volume - The sales volume of polyurethane products increased by 14.21% year-on-year, with revenue from this segment reaching 542.45 billion yuan, up 8.32% [3][4] - The petrochemical segment saw a revenue increase of 19.49% year-on-year, although the sales volume decreased by 58.76% [3][4] Cost and Pricing - The average price of pure benzene increased by 13.46% year-on-year, impacting the company's cost structure [3][4] - The report notes that the prices of major products have generally declined, leading to a contraction in industry chain profits [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry (601001 SH) [1] Core Views - The company's coal production and sales have remained stable, with a slight decrease in sales revenue but an increase in gross profit margin for the coal business [1] - The company's financial health is robust, with a significant reduction in debt ratio and financial expenses, and a strong cash position [1] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio and has potential for growth through asset injections and new resource acquisitions [1] Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2024, the company reported a total operating revenue of 11 234 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0 19% year-over-year [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 2 151 billion yuan, down 0 62% year-over-year, while non-GAAP net profit increased by 0 88% [1] - The company's coal production reached 25 7941 million tons, up 1 47% year-over-year, and coal sales were 22 0696 million tons, down 0 3% [1] - The average selling price per ton of coal was 494 21 yuan, with a cost of 261 85 yuan per ton, resulting in a gross profit margin of 47 02%, up 0 33 percentage points [1] Future Outlook - The company plans to produce 34 5 million tons of coal and sell 29 4 million tons in 2024, which is expected to be achieved based on Q3 performance [1] - The report forecasts EPS (diluted) for 2024-2026 to be 1 98, 2 04, and 2 09 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8 0, 7 8, and 7 6 times [1] Financial Ratios and Valuation - The company's ROE for the first nine months of 2024 was 12 3%, down 1 83 percentage points year-over-year [1] - The P/E ratio for 2024 is estimated at 8 0 times, with a P/B ratio of 1 4 times [1] - The company's net profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 21 6% in 2024 [2]