煤机业务再创新高，新能源汽车业务持续 突破 证券研究报告-年报点评 买入(维持) 专用机械 分析师：刘智 登记编码：S0730520110001 liuzhi@ccnew.com021-50586775 市场数据(2025-03-31) | 收盘价(元) | 15.85 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 18.01/10.67 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 3,887.31 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.29 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 282.99 | 个股相对沪深 300 指数表现 -27% -20% -14% -7% -1% 6% 12% 18% 2024.04 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 郑煤机 沪深300 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 相关报告 《郑煤机(601717)季报点评：三季报增速小幅 放 缓 ， 煤 机 结 构 优 化 业 绩 稳 健 增 长 》 2024-11-06 《郑煤机(601717)公司深度分析：中报快速增 长，煤机、汽车零部件双轮驱动》2024-09-12 《郑煤机(601717)年报点评：煤机业务稳健增 长，汽车零部件盈 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a potential increase in stock price relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [6][18]. Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by falling prices of potassium and lithium, but there are expectations for a recovery in the future [3][4]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue of 15.134 billion yuan, down 29.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.663 billion yuan, down 41.07% year-on-year [3][6]. - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to show a positive turnaround, with expected net profit growth of 20.97% to 28.47% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 15.134 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.663 billion yuan, down 41.07% year-on-year [3][6]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride fell by 13.76% to 2506.57 yuan/ton, while sales volume decreased by 16.56% to 4.6728 million tons [3]. - The average selling price of lithium carbonate dropped by 56.26% to 74,000 yuan/ton, despite a sales volume increase of 10.51% to 41,600 tons [3]. Market Outlook - The potassium chloride market is expected to gradually recover due to stable demand and supply constraints from major producers [4][5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a potential increase in potassium fertilizer prices as the spring farming season approaches [5]. Production Capacity and Cost Advantages - The company has a potassium chloride production capacity of 5 million tons per year, leading the domestic market with approximately 35% market share [3]. - The lithium carbonate production capacity is currently 40,000 tons per year, with plans to expand to 43,000 tons in 2025, leveraging cost advantages from its salt lake resources [6]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 1.04 yuan and 1.18 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.93 and 14.07 based on the closing price of 16.56 yuan [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a projected increase in stock price relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [1][11][18]. Core Views - The company reported a significant year-on-year increase in net profit for Q4, continuing its high dividend policy. Total revenue for 2024 was 595.61 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.55% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 49.89 billion yuan, down 1.26% year-on-year. However, the net profit after deducting non-recurring items increased by 1.71% year-on-year [5][11]. - The company’s packaging meat products segment achieved a historical high in profit per ton, with a sales revenue of 247.88 billion yuan, down 6.16% year-on-year, but operating profit increased by 6.8% [11]. - The fresh products segment showed signs of recovery, with Q4 revenue and net profit both increasing significantly, indicating a turnaround in sales performance [11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Data - Closing price: 26.97 yuan - Market capitalization: 934.27 billion yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 4.42 [1]. Financial Performance - 2024 total revenue: 595.61 billion yuan, down 0.55% year-on-year - 2024 net profit: 49.89 billion yuan, down 1.26% year-on-year - Q4 revenue: 156.03 billion yuan, up 13.46% year-on-year - Q4 net profit: 11.85 billion yuan, up 63.27% year-on-year [5][11]. Profitability Metrics - Gross margin: 17.69% - Return on equity (diluted): 23.62% - Operating cash flow per share: 2.43 yuan [1][11]. Future Projections - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 57.51 billion yuan, 59.31 billion yuan, and 61.76 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.66 yuan, 1.71 yuan, and 1.78 yuan [11][12].

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：Wind,中原证券 -17% -12% -7% -2% 4% 9% 14% 19% 2024.04 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | 上证指数 | | 3,348.44 | 0.38 | | | 深证成指 | | 10,503.66 | -0.01 | | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,887.68 | 0.01 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | | 中证 | 100 | 3,725.52 | -0.09 | | | 中证 | 500 | 5,89 ...

资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -17% -12% -7% -2% 4% 9% 14% 19% 2024.04 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,335.75 | -0.46 | 深证成指 | 10,504.33 | -0.97 | | | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | 沪深 | 300 | 3,887.31 | -0.71 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | 中证 | 100 | 3,728.92 | -0.72 | | 中证 | 500 | 5,857.77 | -0.98 | 中证 | 1000 | 6,116.76 | 0.33 | | 国证 | 2000 | 7,801.23 | 0.58 ...

《计算机行业月报：国内算力投入明显加 快，平台企业借势积极入局》 2025-03-13 《计算机行业深度分析：三大要素齐发力， AI 应用步入全面加速期》 2025-03-07 《计算机行业月报：DeepSeek-R1 带来 AI 技术突破，持续关注 GPT-5 的推出进程》 2025-02-13 计算机 分析师：唐月 登记编码：S0730512030001 tangyue@ccnew.com 021-50586737 概况 ——计算机行业深度分析 证券研究报告-行业深度分析 强于大市(维持) 计算机相对沪深 300 指数表现 相关报告 联系人：李智 投资要点： 算力包括了计算、传输、存储三个方面的能力。算力基础设施是 数字基础设施的重要组成部分，是数字经济时代的新型生产力。 风险提示：国际局势的不确定性；下游企业削减开支。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第 1 页 / 共 55 页 AI 时代下，算力产业的发展趋势及河南 发布日期：2025 年 03 月 31 日 -26% -16% -5% 5% 16% 26% 37% 47% 2024.04 20 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [3][15]. Core Views - The company achieved an operating revenue of 86.804 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.814 billion yuan, up 0.83% year-on-year [7][15]. - The company’s average on-grid electricity price in 2024 was 0.416 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a decrease of 1.57% year-on-year, while the average market transaction price was approximately 0.3869 yuan per kilowatt-hour, down 3.85% year-on-year [8][10]. - The company managed to increase its total power generation to approximately 242.181 billion kilowatt-hours, a growth of 6.08% compared to 2023 [8][10]. - The company plans to conduct 19 major overhauls in 2025, with a total overhaul duration of approximately 713 days in 2024, which is a reduction of about 207 days from 2023 [9][10]. - The company’s financing costs have decreased, and the cash dividend ratio has been continuously improved, with a proposed dividend of 4.797 billion yuan for 2024, raising the dividend ratio to 44.36% [14][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 86.804 billion yuan, with a net profit of 10.814 billion yuan, reflecting stable growth despite market price fluctuations [7][8]. - The company’s financial expenses decreased by 9.40% year-on-year to 5.133 billion yuan in 2024 [14]. Power Generation and Capacity - The company operates 28 nuclear power units with a total power generation of approximately 242.181 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a 6.08% increase from the previous year [8][10]. - The company’s total installed capacity reached 43.814 million kilowatts, accounting for 45.02% of the national total for operational and under-construction nuclear power units [13][10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see net profits of 10.968 billion yuan, 11.688 billion yuan, and 13.215 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.22, 0.23, and 0.26 yuan [15][16]. - The company’s market transaction electricity volume is projected to increase, which may impact the average electricity price in 2025 [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a projected increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [33]. Core Views - The company achieved an operating revenue of 86.804 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.814 billion yuan, up 0.83% year-on-year [7][16]. - The average on-grid electricity price for the company in 2024 was 0.416 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a decrease of 1.57% compared to the previous year, while the average market transaction price fell by 3.85% to approximately 0.3869 yuan per kilowatt-hour [8][10]. - The company managed to increase its total power generation to approximately 242.181 billion kilowatt-hours, a growth of 6.08% year-on-year, with significant contributions from its subsidiaries [8][10]. - The company is in a phase of large-scale nuclear power station construction, with a total installed capacity of 43.814 million kilowatts, accounting for 45.02% of the national total [11][13]. - The company plans to increase its cash dividend to 4.797 billion yuan for 2024, raising the dividend payout ratio to 44.36% [14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total operating revenue of 86.804 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 10.814 billion yuan, reflecting stable growth despite market challenges [7][16]. - The company’s financial expenses decreased by 9.40% year-on-year to 5.133 billion yuan, aided by lower debt financing costs [14]. Market Position and Growth - The company’s nuclear power generation capacity is expected to grow, with new units coming online and ongoing projects in development [10][11]. - The company’s market share in the national on-grid electricity generation reached 54.38% in 2024, highlighting its significant role in the industry [10]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 10.968 billion yuan, 11.688 billion yuan, and 13.215 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.22, 0.23, and 0.26 yuan [15][16]. - The anticipated decline in market electricity prices in the Guangdong and Guangxi regions may impact the company’s average electricity price in 2025, but the overall power generation volume is expected to maintain an upward trend [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the electrical equipment sector [4]. Core Insights - The electrical equipment sector outperformed the CSI 300 index in March, with an increase of 0.86% compared to the index's 0.65% [4]. - The manufacturing PMI returned to a growth zone at 50.2% in February 2025, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing sentiment [4][19]. - The sector's valuation is expected to continue recovering, with the PE (TTM) at 35.27 times and PB (LF) at 2.82 times, both near historical medians [4]. - The demand for electrical equipment is anticipated to rise due to the acceleration of domestic power grid construction and the growth in electricity consumption driven by AI, big data, and cloud computing [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The electrical equipment index rose 0.86% in March, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.21 percentage points [8]. - Among the sub-sectors, the transmission and distribution equipment and distribution equipment showed strong performance, while the motor and power electronics sectors experienced declines [8]. Macroeconomic Overview - In January-February 2025, the industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with fixed asset investment growing by 4.1% [19]. - The manufacturing PMI increased by 1.1 percentage points to 50.2%, indicating improved market demand [20]. Electrical Equipment Sector Power Operation - Total electricity consumption in January-February 2025 was 15,564 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [31]. - The total installed capacity of power generation reached 3,400 million kW, a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [32]. Industry Chain - As of March 28, 2025, the price of cold-rolled oriented silicon steel remained stable at 15,950 yuan/ton, while copper and silver prices increased by 4.70% and 8.39%, respectively [52]. - The export value of transformers in January-February 2025 was $1.207 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45.60% [53]. Power Grid Tendering - In March 2025, the State Grid Company conducted two tenders for distribution network materials and 10kV transformer equipment [72].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the electrical equipment sector [4]. Core Viewpoints - The electrical equipment sector outperformed the CSI 300 index in March, with an increase of 0.86% compared to the CSI 300's 0.65% [4][8]. - The manufacturing PMI returned to a growth zone at 50.2% in February 2025, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing sentiment [4][19]. - The sector's valuation is expected to continue recovering, with the PE (TTM) at 35.27 times and PB (LF) at 2.82 times, both near historical medians [4][52]. - The demand for electrical equipment is anticipated to rise due to the acceleration of domestic grid construction and the growth in electricity consumption driven by AI, big data, cloud computing, and 5G [4][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The electrical equipment index ranked 18th among CITIC's primary industries in terms of performance, with notable increases in the transmission and distribution equipment sectors [8][15]. 2. Macroeconomic Overview - In January-February 2025, fixed asset investment reached 52,619 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [19][20]. - The manufacturing PMI rose by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved market demand [19][20]. 3. Electrical Equipment 3.1. Power Operation - Total electricity consumption in January-February 2025 was 15,564 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [31]. - The installed capacity of power generation reached 3,400 million kW, a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [32]. 3.2. Industry Chain - As of March 28, 2025, the price of cold-rolled oriented silicon steel remained stable at 15,950 yuan/ton, while copper and silver prices saw significant increases [52][53]. - The export value of transformers in January-February 2025 was 1.207 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 45.6% [53]. 3.3. Grid Tendering Situation - In March 2025, the State Grid Company conducted two tenders for distribution network materials and transformers [72][75]. 4. Regional Situation - In February 2025, Henan province's electricity generation was 30.063 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.11% [77]. 5. Industry Dynamics - The National Energy Administration released guidelines for energy industry standards in 2025, focusing on supporting high-quality energy development [80].