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立讯精密:苹果2024FQ3财报点评:iPhone表现好于预期,关注AI OS迭代对手机放量的催化
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-08-04 06:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Luxshare Precision [3][9]. Core Views - The report highlights that Apple's FY24Q3 performance exceeded market expectations, with revenue of $85.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and an EPS of $1.4, reflecting a 11.1% increase [2][10]. - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for Luxshare Precision as a core supplier in Apple's supply chain, driven by the anticipated demand from AI product integration and the upcoming iPhone 16 series [3][20]. - The report projects Luxshare's net profit for 2024 and 2025 to be 13.716 billion yuan and 17.547 billion yuan, respectively, with a target price of 56.35 yuan based on a 23x PE ratio for 2025 [3][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Data and Valuation - For FY24E, total revenue is projected at 231,905.46 million yuan, with a growth rate of 20.35%. The net profit is expected to be 10,952.66 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 25.23% [4][26]. - EPS is forecasted to be 1.54 yuan for FY24E, with a P/E ratio of 22.37 [4][26]. Product Performance - iPhone revenue for FY24Q3 was $39.3 billion, a decrease of 0.9% year-on-year, but showed positive growth when excluding currency impacts. The iPad saw a 24% year-on-year increase in revenue, driven by new AI-driven products [11][10]. - The services segment achieved revenue of $24.2 billion, a 14% increase year-on-year, indicating strong growth potential from AI integration [11][10]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that Apple's revenue growth will maintain a similar trajectory in FY24Q4, with service revenue expected to continue double-digit growth [17][18]. - The report projects that by 2025, iPhone sales could reach 255 million units, representing an 11.4% year-on-year increase, supported by the ongoing AI integration and product iterations [18][20]. Investment Recommendation - The report recommends focusing on Luxshare Precision as a key player in the Apple supply chain, with expectations of robust growth in mobile assembly and module businesses due to increased demand from AI-driven products [20][22].
立讯精密:苹果2024FQ3财报点评:iPhone表现好于预期,关注AIOS迭代对手机放量的催化
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-08-03 10:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luxshare Precision (立讯精密) with a target price of 56.35 CNY over a 6-month period [1][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Luxshare Precision is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for iPhones driven by Apple Intelligence, with projected net profits of 13.716 billion CNY for 2024 and 17.547 billion CNY for 2025, reflecting growth rates of 25% and 28% respectively [8][25]. - The anticipated shipment volume for the iPhone 16 series is estimated to reach 58-60 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 23% [25]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential in the automotive sector, with expected revenue growth of nearly 50% due to collaborations with key clients [25]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY24, the total revenue is projected to be 279.1 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 20.35% [10]. - The net profit for FY24 is forecasted at 13.716 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 25.23% [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.91 CNY for FY24 [10]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the integration of AI in Apple's products will catalyze a new replacement cycle for iPhones, potentially increasing the installed base and market share [20][21]. - The report projects that the iPhone sales volume for 2025 could reach 255 million units, reflecting an 11.4% year-on-year increase [21]. Business Segments - In the mobile assembly business, Luxshare is expected to benefit from the demand for the iPhone 16 series, with significant contributions to net profit growth from this segment [25]. - The module business is projected to see revenue growth driven by increased market share with major clients, expected to contribute an additional 27.8 billion CNY in revenue for FY24 [25]. - The report also notes that the communication and data center sectors are expected to grow by 30-40% this year, driven by strong demand in server business [25].
传媒互联网行业月报:WAIC顺利落幕,暑期端手游新品竞争激烈
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-08-02 09:30
[Table_Main] 行业研究|可选消费|媒体Ⅱ 证券研究报告 媒体Ⅱ行业周报、月报 2024 年 08 月 02 日 [Table_Title] WAIC 顺利落幕,暑期端手游新品竞争激烈 ——传媒互联网行业月报(2024.7.1-2024.7.31) [Table_Summary] 报告要点: 市场表现 月度涨跌情况(2024.7.1-2024.7.31,下同):传媒行业(申万)下跌 1.36%,排名子行业第 17 名,同期沪深 300 跌 0.57%,上证指数跌 0.97%,创业板指涨 0.28%。 重点板块跟踪 人工智能:WAIC 顺利召开,产业端欣欣向荣,OpenAI 发布 GPT-4o mini。海外 Meta 发布 3D Gen AI 模型和 Llama 3.1 开源大语言模 型,多模态模型拓展至 3D 生成,OpenAI 发布 AI 模型 GPT-4o mini, 并向部分付费订阅用户开放 GPT-4o 语音模式,在应用落地端持续努 力。国内,商汤发布首个"可控"人物视频生成大模型 Vimi;快手文 生图"可图"开源,"可灵"上线网页版,构建完善的多模态生成模型 生态;应用端,智谱 AI ...
传媒互联网行业月报(2024.7.1-2024.7.31):WAIC顺利落幕,暑期端手游新品竞争激烈
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-08-02 08:03
行业务党|可选消费|媒体 II 媒体 ll 行业周报、月报 证券所究报告 2024 年 08 月 02 日 WAIC 顺利落幕,毒病病手將新品竞争激烈 ——传媒互联网行业月报 (2024.7.1-2024.7.31) 摄仓卖点: ● 月度添跌㎡况 (2024.7.1-2024.7.31, 下同): 传媒行业 (中方) 下跌 1.36%,排名子行业家 17 名,同期沪深 300 跌 0.57%,上证将数跌 0.97%,创业板 指示 0.28%。 ● 人工有能:WAIC 顺利名开,产业减欣欣向栄,OpenAI 复本 GPT-4o mini。海外 Meta 发布 3D Gen Al 模型称 Llama 3.1 开源大话言模 型,多模态模型花质至 3D 生态,OpenAI 发布 AI 模型 GPT-4o mini, 并向部分付费订阅用户开放 GPT-4o 济奇模式,在应用落地站持续努 力。国内,奇汤发布言个"可控"人勃视频生成大楼型 Vimi:铁手文 生困 "可困" 开源,"可买" 上线问页版,构建免者的多候态生点模型 生态:应用站,有诸 AI 发布说频生态工具"济彩"。后续查点催化方 商,9月,阿里巴巴将狼出 AI ...
市场复盘:指数震荡回调,航天逆市走强
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-08-02 00:30
[Table_Title] 每日复盘 证券研究报告 20240801 市场复盘:指数震荡回调,航天逆市走强 报告要点: 2024 年 8 月 1 日指数震荡回调,航天逆市走强。上证指数下跌 0.22%,深证成指下跌 0.92%,创业板指下跌 1.31%。市场成交额 7865.09 亿元,较上一交易日减少 1215.57 亿元。全市场 2169 只个股上涨,2858 只 个股下跌。 风格上看,大部分市场风格下跌。周期、消费、金融、成长风格均出现 不同程度下跌,消费风格跌幅最大,稳定风格上涨;非基金重仓股指数小幅 上涨,基金重仓股指数均大幅下跌;价值风格表现优于成长,中小盘风格表 现优于大盘。 分行业看,30 个中信一级行业普遍下跌;表现相对靠前的是:建筑 (0.74%),国防军工(0.57%),交通运输(0.52%);表现相对靠后的是: 食品饮料(-2.25%),房地产(-2.15%),电力设备及新能源(-1.32%)。概 念板块方面,多数概念板块下跌,商业航天、高铁、低空经济等大幅上涨; 央企煤炭、白酒、炒股软件等大幅走低。 资金筹码方面,主力资金 8 月 1 日净流出 167.05 亿元。其中超大单净 流出 ...
水羊股份:2024年半年报点评:24H1利润承压,EDB持续沉淀品牌资产
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-08-02 00:30
[Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|家庭与个人用品 证券研究报告 [Table_TargetPrice] 水羊股份(300740)公司点评报告 2024 年 08 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 24H1 利润承压,EDB 持续沉淀品牌资产 [Table_Invest]买入|维持 ——水羊股份(300740) 2024 年半年报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件: 公司发布 2024 年半年度报告。 点评: 销售费用高投放叠加投资收益变动致利润承压,产品结构优化带动毛 利率提升 24H1 公司实现营业收入 22.93 亿元,同比增长 0.14%,实现归属母公司净 利润 1.06 亿元,同比下降 25.74%,实现扣非归母净利润 1.19 亿元,同比 下降 19.07%。利润承压主要系公司聚焦品牌资产建设,加大了主要品牌的 品牌种草、市场投放等相关费用支出以及远期外汇合约到期影响投资收益 所致。盈利能力方面,24H1 公司毛利率为 61.48%,同比明显提升 4.57pct, 净利率为 4.77%,同比下降 1.64pct。费用端来看,24H1 公司销售费用率 为 46.84%,同比 ...
市场复盘:市场放量大涨,消费风格领涨
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-08-01 03:00
Market Overview - On July 31, 2024, the market experienced a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.37%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.51. The total market turnover reached 908.066 billion yuan, an increase of 304.561 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. A total of 5,048 stocks rose while 254 stocks fell [2][12]. Market Style and Sector Performance - All market styles saw a general increase, with cyclical, consumer, financial, and growth styles rising significantly, while stable styles experienced a slight decline. The non-fund heavy stock index outperformed the fund heavy stock index, and the growth style outperformed the value style. Small and mid-cap stocks also outperformed large-cap stocks [2][17]. - Among the 30 first-level industries of CITIC, all showed an upward trend. The top-performing sectors included consumer services (5.26%), comprehensive finance (5.06%), and pharmaceuticals (4.66%). Conversely, the banking sector (-0.29%), electric power and public utilities (-0.25%), and construction (0.89%) lagged behind [2][17]. Fund Flow Performance - On July 31, 2024, the main funds saw a net inflow of 16.652 billion yuan, with large orders contributing 12.896 billion yuan and small orders continuing to see a net outflow of 0.598 billion yuan. Northbound funds also experienced a significant net inflow of 19.580 billion yuan, with the Shanghai Stock Connect contributing 11.363 billion yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Connect 8.217 billion yuan [20][21]. ETF Fund Flow Performance - On July 31, 2024, most ETFs, including the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, saw an increase in trading volume compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes for various ETFs were as follows: 2.485 billion yuan for the Shanghai 50 ETF, 5.353 billion yuan for the CSI 300 ETF, and 2.878 billion yuan for the CSI 1000 ETF, with notable changes in trading volumes [3][24]. Global Market Performance - On July 30, 2024, European stock indices showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX rising by 0.49% and the UK's FTSE 100 declining by 0.22%. In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.50%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.50% and 1.28%, respectively. Asian markets generally rose on July 31, with the Hang Seng Index up by 2.01% and the Nikkei 225 by 1.49% [25][26].
水井坊2024年中报点评:Q2业绩增30%,高档品提速
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-07-31 10:00
[Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 水井坊(600779)公司点评报告 2024 年 07 月 30 日 [Table_Title]Q2 业绩增 30%,高档品提速 ——水井坊 2024 年中报点评 [Table_Summary] 报告要点: 事件 公司公告 2024 年中报。2024H1,公司实现总收入 17.19 亿元(+12.57%), 归母净利 2.42 亿元(+19.55%),扣非归母净利 2.28 亿元(+13.88%)。 2024Q2,公司实现总收入 7.85 亿元(+16.62%),归母净利 0.56 亿元 (+29.60%),扣非归母净利 0.74 亿元(+74.42%)。 Q2 高档产品增长加速,平均单价同、环比提升 1)24H1 酒类收入同比+6.50%。24H1,公司酒类收入 16.14 亿元,同比 +6.50%,24Q2 酒类收入同比+11.19%。 2)Q2 产品结构优化,平均单价同增 10.42%。24H1,公司白酒销量 0.37 万千升,同比+5.31%,单价 216.09 元/500ML,同比+1.13%;24Q2,公司 白酒销量 0 ...
均胜电子:公司点评报告:国际化企业盈利提升,智能化大厂持续向前
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-07-31 10:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 20.02 CNY, indicating an expected upside from the current price of 14.33 CNY over the next six months [6][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 27.98 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 638 million CNY, up 34.14% year-on-year [2]. - The company has successfully integrated its global operations, leading to improved profitability, with an overall gross margin increase of 2.4 percentage points to approximately 15.8% in the first half of 2024 [3]. - The company is actively expanding its customer base in the electric and intelligent vehicle market, with a total new order value of approximately 50.4 billion CNY in the first half of 2024 [4]. - The company is advancing in the intelligent automotive sector, developing comprehensive solutions in cockpit, intelligent driving, and vehicle-road-cloud integration, with significant partnerships established with major chip manufacturers [5]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 56.40 billion CNY, 59.40 billion CNY, and 64.68 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 1.42 billion CNY, 1.81 billion CNY, and 2.17 billion CNY for the same years [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.01 CNY, 1.29 CNY, and 1.54 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.84, 11.60, and 9.69 [6][12].
市场复盘:三大指数收跌,小盘风格走高
Guoyuan Securities· 2024-07-31 00:00
Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market showed mixed performance across different styles, with financial and growth styles slightly up, while cyclical, consumer, and stable styles declined [25][62]. - Among the 30 first-level industries, real estate (up 1.72%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (up 1.36%), and consumer services (up 0.76%) performed relatively well, while oil and petrochemicals (down 2.54%), home appliances (down 2.12%), and coal (down 1.79%) lagged behind [25][62]. - The report highlights that the main funds experienced a net outflow of 117.14 billion yuan on July 30, with large orders contributing significantly to this outflow [26][65]. Group 2 - The report notes that the ETF trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, with notable inflows into the HuShen 300 ETF, which saw a net inflow of 27.84 billion yuan [47][26]. - The report provides detailed trading volumes for various ETFs, indicating significant increases in trading activity for several major ETFs, including the HuShen 300 ETF and the CSI 500 ETF [47][26]. - The report also mentions that the Northbound funds experienced a net outflow of 24.45 billion yuan on July 30, with the Shanghai Stock Connect contributing a net outflow of 18.16 billion yuan [7][66]. Group 3 - The report states that the major global indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.12% and the S&P 500 up 0.08% on July 29 [50][71]. - The report highlights that the Asian markets also had varied performances, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.37% and the Nikkei 225 Index up 0.15% [4][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring global market trends as they can impact domestic market performance and investor sentiment [71].