行业研究报告 发布时间:2024年6月27日 新能源博弈胜者为王,智能化与车路云开辟新方向 ——2024下半年汽车行业投资策略 分析师:杨为敩 执业证书编号:S0020521060001 联系人: 刘乐 联系电话:021-5109-7188 报告要点 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 汽车行业发展沿经典的生命周期曲线演进,当前国内新能源车与传统车周期重叠进入成长后期和振荡期阶 段,后续沿两个方向发展:一是原有曲线寻找新出路,体现在出海、并购和品牌化方面;另一方向则是开 辟新成长曲线,体现在自动驾驶、人形机器人和eVTOL方面。 花开两朵,各表一枝 1)汽车产业的发展脉络一直都很清晰。至2008年前后,传统燃油车第一曲线基本进入成长后期和震荡期阶段。 2009年后都是在包括宏观和产业政策的推动下波动振荡 2)与经典产业生命周期曲线指引的趋势一样,震荡期开始寻求第二曲线。因此2009年"十城千辆"推动新能 源车发展。但由于政策推动,智能电动车发展节奏快,到当前为止已经进入成长后期和震荡期阶段,与国内进 入衰退期的传统燃油车一起开始成长曲线中后期的发展模式:(1)在原有曲线上出海、并购、品牌化垄断提 升行业集中 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 13.51/15.99/18.88 billion yuan for 2024-2026, and expects the company's revenue to grow by 22.22%/18.36%/18.04% respectively [19][30] Core Views - The company is a leader in the domestic self-lubricating bearing industry, with a strong customer base and a focus on high-end markets [14][15] - The company's automotive and engineering machinery bearing business is stable, and the humanoid robot business is emerging, with potential for future sales growth [19][30] - The company's product strength is nationally leading, with a deep and solid customer base, and it has entered the global supply system of well-known manufacturers such as Caterpillar and Volvo [15][30] - The company is accelerating the incubation of humanoid robot projects, which is expected to cultivate new performance growth points [15][30] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved operating income of 1.105 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.18%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 242 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 137.26% [7] - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin improved marginally in 2023, and the expense ratio remained stable overall [7] - The company's R&D investment reached 49.67 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 12.09% [7] - The company's ROE is expected to be 16.35%/17.95%/19.45% in 2024-2026, and EPS is expected to be 0.95/1.17/1.45 yuan [19][30] Industry Outlook - The global bearing industry is expected to grow steadily, with the market size reaching 279.8 billion USD by 2032, with a compound growth rate of 8% [30][41] - China's bearing industry is gradually entering a period of development opportunities, with the output of bearings reaching 27.5 billion sets in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 6.18% [30][41] - The sliding bearing application field will be further expanded, and the industry is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend [30][41] Business Structure - The metal-plastic polymer self-lubricating coiled bearing business accounts for 33.07% of the revenue, and the metal-based self-lubricating bearing business accounts for 19.77% of the revenue [7][17] - The company's products are widely used in engineering machinery, automobiles, energy (traditional and renewable), port machinery, plastic machinery, agricultural machinery and other industries [14][30]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near future [18]. Core Insights - The company, Yindu Co., Ltd., specializes in commercial kitchen equipment and has established a global market presence, exporting to over 80 countries and regions. The company has set up 31 overseas warehouses, with over 90% of its revenue coming from international markets [9][18]. - The company's revenue and net profit have shown steady growth, with a CAGR of 11.3% and 14.5% from 2019 to 2023, respectively. In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 630 million yuan and net profit of 165 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.6% and 68.8% [10][19]. - New product launches, such as the "Universal Steamer Oven" and "Smart French Fry Robot," are expected to create new growth curves for the company. The company is also expanding its marketing network globally to enhance brand visibility [11][19][20]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 30.77 billion yuan, 35.27 billion yuan, and 39.94 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.99%, 14.65%, and 13.22%. Net profits are expected to be 6.34 billion yuan, 7.71 billion yuan, and 9.27 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 24.09%, 21.65%, and 20.25% [16][20]. - The report highlights the company's earnings per share (EPS) projections of 1.51 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 2.20 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.46, 16.82, and 13.99 [16][20].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company focuses on commercial kitchen equipment and has a global market presence, with over 90% of its revenue coming from international markets [1][16]. - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a CAGR of 11.3% for revenue and 14.5% for net profit from 2019 to 2023 [1][6]. - New product launches, such as the "Universal Steam Oven" and "Smart French Fry Robot," are expected to create new growth trajectories [1][36]. - The company has set ambitious growth targets for revenue and net profit from 2024 to 2026, reflecting confidence in its long-term development [1][36]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in April 2003, the company specializes in the R&D, production, and sales of commercial kitchen equipment, primarily under its own brand supplemented by ODM models [1][16]. - The company has established a global presence, exporting to over 80 countries and regions, and has set up 31 overseas warehouses to enhance customer service [1][16]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 630 million and 165 million yuan respectively in Q1 2024, marking year-on-year growth of 5.6% and 68.8% [1][6]. - The gross margin has been recovering since Q4 2023, indicating potential for continued improvement in profitability [1][6]. Product Development - The company is launching innovative products aimed at enhancing automation in the kitchen, which are expected to penetrate the chain restaurant market effectively [1][36]. - The "Smart French Fry Robot" has completed initial orders for customer validation and is set to enhance its functionality [1][36]. Market Strategy - The company continues to implement its "85 Country Plan" to expand its brand presence globally and is also developing a production base in Thailand to meet overseas demand [1][36]. Investment Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 30.77 billion, 35.27 billion, and 39.94 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.99%, 14.65%, and 13.22% respectively [1][7]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 6.34 billion, 7.71 billion, and 9.27 billion yuan, with growth rates of 24.09%, 21.65%, and 20.25% respectively [1][7].

Investment Rating - The investment ratings for key companies in the industrial sector include "Buy" for Jiangsu Leili and "Hold" for Wuzhou Xinchun, Wan Feng Aowei, and others [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the expected mass production of humanoid robots, particularly from Tesla, which is anticipated to lead the market with a potential annual production of 100 million units by 2025 [22][24]. - The outdoor power equipment (OPE) market is projected to grow due to favorable policies and technological innovations, with a focus on lithium battery-powered products and robotic lawn mowers as significant growth drivers [2][3]. - The low-altitude economy is set to expand, with eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) vehicles emerging as a key component, supported by government policies and market demand [3][4]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus, is expected to achieve mass production by 2025, with a target price below $20,000, significantly expanding market potential [22][24]. - Domestic and international manufacturers are expected to deliver humanoid robots in bulk by 2024-2025, focusing on common core components such as motors and sensors [22][23]. - Key suppliers for Tesla's humanoid robot components include Jiangsu Leili for motors and Wuzhou Xinchun for planetary roller screws [22][23]. Outdoor Power Equipment (OPE) - The OPE market is characterized by a shift towards lithium battery technology and a growing demand for robotic lawn mowers, with exports expected to rise in 2024 [2][3]. - The market is projected to reach a scale of hundreds of billions, driven by environmental policies and technological advancements [2][3]. - Companies to watch include Xiaofeng Holdings, a leader in lithium battery OPE, and others like Greebo and Su Meida, which are enhancing their brand influence [2]. Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is anticipated to unlock a trillion-dollar market, with eVTOL vehicles at the forefront due to their safety, environmental benefits, and economic viability [3][4]. - The development of eVTOL is supported by government policies and a growing interest in urban air mobility solutions [3][4]. - Key players in the eVTOL market include Yihang Intelligent and Wan Feng Aowei, both of which are making significant advancements in this sector [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [43]. Core Insights - Wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China increased by 6% year-on-year, with a total of 1,020.3 million units sold in the year to date, suggesting that the annual sales target remains achievable [2][18]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached nearly 50% in early June, indicating a strong growth trajectory for the NEV segment [4]. - Tesla is reportedly working on its "Master Plan Part 4," which may focus on autonomous driving, robotics, and artificial intelligence, aligning with the industry's shift towards smart and connected vehicles [4][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - From June 1 to June 16, 2024, wholesale sales of passenger vehicles were 619,000 units, a 20% decrease year-on-year, but stable compared to the previous month [2][18]. - The cumulative retail sales for the year reached 870.7 million units, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase [18]. 2. New Energy Vehicle Insights - Retail sales of new energy vehicles during the same period were 314,000 units, a 14% increase year-on-year, with cumulative sales of 3.569 million units, up 32% year-on-year [18]. - The wholesale of new energy vehicles reached 335,000 units, marking a 28% increase year-on-year [18]. 3. Industry Developments - The automotive industry is entering a new growth phase, with a focus on smart and connected vehicles, as highlighted by the advancements in Tesla's autonomous driving technology [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the "trade-in" policy for stimulating demand in the passenger vehicle market, particularly for NEVs and quality state-owned enterprises [5]. 4. Stock Performance - The automotive sector index rose by 0.34% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.64 percentage points [11]. - Notable stock performances included increases of 13.5% for Seres and 9.7% for BAIC BluePark in the passenger vehicle segment [11][15]. 5. Key News Highlights - Lightyear Zhihang completed a significant financing round to enhance its smart driving solutions [25]. - The launch of the Lantu FREE 318, a range-extended hybrid vehicle, showcases the industry's shift towards more advanced vehicle technologies [26]. - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between BAIC Group and CATL to enhance their collaboration in the new energy sector [28].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, BYD, based on its strong market position and growth potential in the new energy vehicle sector [2][4]. Core Insights - BYD is a leading player in the domestic new energy vehicle market, with a comprehensive supply chain and production capacity of 4.75 million vehicles domestically and 1.1 million vehicles overseas [2][25]. - The company has achieved a full price range layout and is investing heavily in research and development, which supports its brand enhancement and market competitiveness [2][10]. - BYD is expected to experience a peak in overseas production by 2024, with factories in Uzbekistan, Thailand, and Brazil set to commence operations, facilitating its global expansion [2][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Founded in 1995, BYD has evolved from a battery manufacturer to a comprehensive new energy vehicle producer, establishing a full industry chain from raw materials to vehicle sales [2][10]. - The company has a significant technological edge in battery technology and has been a pioneer in the electric vehicle sector [2][10]. 2. Cost and Technology Strategy - BYD has integrated its supply chain to maintain pricing power in the market segment below 200,000 yuan, while also developing advanced technologies such as the Blade Battery and the e-platform 3.0EVO [2][10][17]. - The company has established a strong technology pool that includes various disruptive technologies, enhancing its product offerings across different market segments [2][10]. 3. Global Expansion - BYD is actively expanding its production capacity overseas, with a focus on regions like Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and South America, supported by new factories and a fleet of large automobile transport ships [2][25]. - The company has already begun production in its joint venture factory in Uzbekistan and plans to launch additional factories in Thailand and Brazil by the second half of 2024 [2][25]. 4. Financial Projections - The report forecasts significant growth in net profit for BYD, estimating net profits of 39.48 billion yuan, 54.83 billion yuan, and 68.42 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][3]. - The projected earnings per share for the same period are 13.56 yuan, 18.83 yuan, and 23.50 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios indicating a favorable valuation [2][3]. 5. Sales and Distribution Network - BYD has expanded its distribution network to approximately 4,099 outlets, with an average sales volume of 176.4 vehicles per store in the first quarter of 2024, leading the industry in sales efficiency [2][28]. - The company employs a multi-channel strategy, combining traditional dealership models with direct sales to enhance customer reach and service quality [2][28].

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 15.39 CNY [3][9]. Core Insights - The company has a strong position in the tin and indium industries, being the largest producer and processor of tin in China and holding the world's largest indium resource [2][3]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 42.36 billion CNY, a decrease of 18.54% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 4.61% to 1.41 billion CNY [2][10]. - The company expects a revenue of 40.3 billion CNY in 2024, with total non-ferrous metal production projected at 348,600 tons [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a comprehensive industrial layout involving exploration, mining, smelting, and deep processing of metals like tin, copper, zinc, and indium [2]. - It has maintained the highest tin production and sales globally since 2005, with a market share of 47.92% in the domestic market and 22.92% globally in 2023 [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.4 billion CNY, down 24.47% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 22.09% to 326 million CNY [2]. - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 9.15%, with a net margin of 3.60% [8]. Production and Sales - In 2023, tin ingot production reached 65,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 42.61%, contributing 10.98 billion CNY to total revenue [2]. - The company’s production capacity includes 80,000 tons/year for tin smelting and 12,500 tons/year for cathode copper [2]. Market Trends - Global tin supply is expected to remain inelastic, while demand from emerging industries like photovoltaics and electric vehicles is projected to grow [3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in solder demand as the semiconductor cycle stabilizes, highlighting tin's role as "electronic glue" [9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the integration of the tin industry chain and the development of deep processing capabilities [7]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 predict net profits of 2.07 billion CNY, 2.30 billion CNY, and 2.61 billion CNY, respectively [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" rating to the telecommunications and electronics industry, considering the sustained high prosperity of the sector driven by AI, 5.5G, and satellite communications [3][10]. Core Insights - The telecommunications sector experienced a weekly increase of 1.28% from June 17 to June 21, 2024, while the broader market indices saw declines [3][10]. - The highest increase among sub-sectors was in communication cables and accessories, which rose by 4.18%, while communication application value-added services saw the largest decline at 2.96% [12][13]. - Notable individual stock performances included Cheng Tian Wei Ye with a 25.02% increase, followed by ST Peng Bo and ST Jiu You with increases of 23.77% and 22.94%, respectively [14]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The overall market sentiment for the telecommunications sector remains positive, with a notable increase in the communication index despite declines in major stock indices [10]. - The report highlights the strong performance of specific sub-sectors, particularly communication cables and accessories, indicating a robust demand in this area [12][13]. Key Developments - The 3GPP Release 18 standard was officially frozen, marking a significant milestone in the evolution of 5G technology, which is expected to enhance network performance and pave the way for 5G-A technologies [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of 5G-A as a key technology for expanding the capabilities of 5G and facilitating the transition to 6G [4]. Market Projections - LightCounting projects that the optical module market will exceed $2.6 billion in Q2 2024, driven by strong demand from major cloud service providers [19]. - The report also notes that the DCIM market is expected to reach a value of $6.3 billion by 2030, highlighting the growing importance of data center infrastructure management [21][22]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies within the computing power supply chain and satellite internet sectors, recommending specific stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Hai Ge Communication [5].

Monetary Policy Insights - The recent discussions at the Lujiazui Forum suggest price controls may be aimed at quelling market expectations for future quantitative easing (QE) amid failed interest rate cut expectations, indicating a hawkish stance on monetary policy[4]. - Despite the hawkish appearance, the actual monetary policy remains accommodative, with the R007 rate returning to its lowest level since October 2022, signaling a shift towards easing[4]. - The central bank's potential reduction or exit from the MLF tool could indicate a future focus on direct government bond purchases, diminishing the role of MLF[4]. Economic Trends - Current macroeconomic stability is supported by a global inventory cycle, but the potential decline of this cycle is a critical variable to monitor[5]. - Manufacturing investment growth has declined for two consecutive months, suggesting limited upward momentum for the economy in the near term[4]. - The risk-off sentiment in major asset classes reflects the lack of conditions for a trend reversal, compounded by the belief that policies will not remain passive[4]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - In the context of liquidity constraints, a risk-off approach is recommended, with a preference for interest rate bonds as superior assets[5]. - Equity markets may show limited performance due to unresolved credit issuance issues, but opportunities exist in sectors like exports and environmental protection[5]. - For credit markets, there is potential for city investment credit to reach historical lows in credit spreads, although real estate credit remains uncertain[5]. Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index stands at 2998.14, while the Shenzhen Component Index is at 9064.84, indicating current market performance levels[6]. - The ongoing trend in interest rate bonds suggests sustained market activity, with a neutral duration strategy advised while being cautious with long-term bonds[5].