Market Overview - Institutional funds show fluctuating behavior, with a reduction in outflow momentum in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board. Although there is a phase of outflow, the net outflow slope for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is gentler compared to the ChiNext and the entire A-share market. Retail investor inflows remain relatively stable, with significant net inflows into the ChiNext compared to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [5][9][10] Market Capitalization and Valuation Style - The small-cap style represented by the CSI 2000 has seen synchronized net inflows from both institutional and retail investors, with institutional inflows being more stable. In contrast, institutional funds have continued to experience slight outflows from high-valuation styles, while retail investors have significantly increased their inflows into these high-valuation stocks [9][10][15] Major Industry Style - Institutional funds have shown repeated behavior, with cyclical manufacturing becoming a structural highlight. As of December 26, institutional funds were in a sustained net inflow into cyclical manufacturing, only turning to net outflow on December 30, indicating its relative resilience. Retail investors have also shown consistent net inflows into cyclical manufacturing, further highlighting its short-term structural appeal [15][19] Primary Industry Fund Flow Upstream Resources - Among upstream resources, non-ferrous metals remain a key focus for speculation, with coal receiving cumulative net inflows from both institutional and retail investors. Institutional funds have shown fluctuating behavior towards basic chemicals and non-ferrous metals, with a brief recovery after December 31 before continuing to flow out [23][24] Midstream Materials & Manufacturing - Institutional funds have shown a net inflow trend in midstream manufacturing, resonating with retail investor behavior. The net inflow rate for institutional funds in the defense and military sector is currently greater than that of retail investors, indicating strong institutional support for the military sector in the short term [27][28] Downstream Essential Consumption - In the downstream essential consumption sector, biopharmaceuticals are the focal point for fund allocation. Institutional funds saw a significant inflow on January 5, followed by a short-term outflow, before turning back to inflows after January 7. The net inflow rate for biopharmaceuticals is approaching zero, indicating increasing consensus between institutional and retail investors [31][32] Downstream Discretionary Consumption - In the downstream discretionary consumption sector, both institutional and retail funds have shown continuous net inflows into light industry manufacturing, with institutional investors enhancing their allocation in this area. The net inflow rate for light industry manufacturing is currently in negative territory, indicating strong institutional support [44][45] TMT Sector - In the TMT sector, institutional investment in the media sector has increased, while funds in the electronics and communications sectors have shown significant volatility. Institutional funds significantly increased their allocation to media around December 31, indicating stronger buying power compared to retail investors [48][49] Financial Sector - In the financial sector, both institutional and retail funds have shown net inflows into banks, while the non-bank financial sector has experienced significant volatility. Institutional funds increased their allocation to banks on January 5, but the net outflow from non-bank financials has accelerated [55][56] Support Services - In the support services sector, both institutional and retail funds have accumulated net inflows into comprehensive and public utilities. The latest values for the net inflow rate indicate that retail investor buying power remains stronger than that of institutional investors [66][67] Leverage Fund Overview - The margin financing balance has reached a new high, with the average market guarantee ratio continuing to rise. As of January 7, the margin financing balance was approximately 2.6 trillion yuan, with liquidity remaining ample. The average guarantee ratio is at 286.52%, indicating a tight leverage structure in the short term [69][70]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking it as the first coverage [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic ALD equipment manufacturer with a strategic focus on semiconductor business development, which is expected to accelerate [6][10]. - The semiconductor business is experiencing rapid growth, with a significant increase in orders, particularly from NAND and DRAM sectors, indicating a strong market position [6][27]. - The photovoltaic business is positioned to benefit from a recovery in market conditions, with the company maintaining a leading market share in ALD products for solar cells [6][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was established in 2015 and has developed a product system centered on ALD technology, expanding into semiconductor equipment since 2018 [6][10]. - It has become a leader in the domestic market for ALD technology applied in photovoltaic cell production, continuously leading in market share and technological advancements [6][12]. Semiconductor Business - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to grow significantly, with the company focusing on ALD and CVD technologies to meet increasing demand [6][36]. - The company has successfully developed and industrialized key ALD and CVD equipment, establishing partnerships with major domestic manufacturers [12][19]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company signed semiconductor orders worth 1.483 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97% [6][27]. Photovoltaic Business - The company has maintained its position as the top domestic supplier of ALD products in the photovoltaic sector, with expectations for market recovery driven by declining costs and increasing demand [6][10]. - The company is actively developing new battery technologies, including TOPCon and perovskite cells, which are expected to lead the next generation of solar technology [6][12]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 26.19 billion yuan, 26.92 billion yuan, and 37.21 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -3%, 3%, and 38% [6][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 3.12 billion yuan, 4.25 billion yuan, and 7.36 billion yuan for the same period, reflecting significant growth [6][10]. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the expansion of its semiconductor business and the recovery of the photovoltaic market, leading to a favorable investment outlook [6][10].

拟收购及安盾消防科技，协同升级驱动新增长 ——公司点评报告 工程机械 国际扩张成效显著》2025-10-15 2、《2024 年业绩稳健增长，订单高 增成长可期》2025-04-26 执业证书编号：S0740519080001 Email：wangke03@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 1,009.04 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,003.72 | | 市价(元) | 6.97 | | 市值(百万元) | 7,033.03 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 6,995.94 | 海伦哲（300201.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2026 年 01 月 08 日 | 买入（维持） 评级： | | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：王可 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 1,352 | 1, ...

Core Insights - The report discusses the dual nature of the OCI (Other Comprehensive Income) option in the context of the tax adjustments for insurance companies transitioning to new accounting standards, indicating that the impact on cash flow from tax retroactivity is limited [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Tax Adjustment Overview - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice regarding the tax treatment for the transition to new insurance contract standards, effective from 2026, allowing companies to smooth out tax differences over five years [3][6]. - The overall impact of this tax adjustment on listed insurance companies is deemed limited, as most have already implemented the new standards since early 2023 [3][4]. Profitability and Tax Rates - Listed insurance companies have seen record high profits, with pre-tax profits in the first three quarters of 2025 exceeding the total for 2024, while actual tax rates have remained low, indicating a disconnect between tax obligations and operational performance [4][5]. - The average effective tax rates from 2020 to Q3 2025 were 10%, 8%, -1%, -6%, 12%, and 17%, with some companies reporting negative tax rates in certain years [4]. Impact of New Accounting Standards - The core difference in profits under the old and new accounting standards is attributed to the 750 curve, which has declined, affecting net profit levels, particularly for life insurance companies [5]. - The new standards provide an OCI option that mitigates the impact of interest rate declines on net profit, but it also removes the tax shield previously available under the old standards [5]. Cash Flow Implications - The tax adjustments are expected to have a minimal impact on operating cash flows, with the average effect on listed insurance companies estimated at 2.27%, while companies like Xinhua and China Life may experience a more significant impact of around 14% [6]. - The choice of how to account for retained earnings from the new standards will influence the actual cash flow effects, with options to either include them in the taxable income for 2026 or spread them over five years [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring major listed insurance companies such as China Life, Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, Xinhua Insurance, and China Property & Casualty Insurance for potential investment opportunities [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Century Huatong (002602.SZ) for the first time [1]. Core Insights - Century Huatong has transformed from an automotive parts manufacturer to a leading player in the internet gaming sector, achieving record-high performance in 2025 with revenue of 27.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.30% [6][19]. - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 4.36 billion yuan, reflecting a 142% increase compared to the same period in 2024, indicating improved profitability efficiency [6][19]. - The revenue structure has shifted significantly, with mobile games accounting for 84.7% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, and overseas revenue surpassing domestic revenue for the first time, reaching 52.06% [6][27]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2023A: 13,285 - 2024A: 22,620 - 2025E: 38,204 - 2026E: 48,799 - 2027E: 53,679 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: 16% - 2024A: 70% - 2025E: 69% - 2026E: 28% - 2027E: 10% [1] - Net profit (in million yuan): - 2023A: 524 - 2024A: 1,213 - 2025E: 5,721 - 2026E: 7,988 - 2027E: 9,755 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: 108% - 2024A: 132% - 2025E: 372% - 2026E: 40% - 2027E: 22% [1] Business Development - Century Huatong has undergone three phases of evolution, transitioning from automotive parts to internet gaming, and has successfully lifted risk warnings, marking a new development stage [12][14]. - The subsidiary, Diandian Interactive, has become a core growth engine, with revenue increasing from 3.74 billion yuan in 2022 to 14.96 billion yuan in 2024, and accounting for 76% of the group's total revenue in the first half of 2025 [6][70]. - The company has consistently launched successful new products, with titles like "Endless Winter" and "Kingshot" achieving significant market recognition and revenue [6][73]. Market Trends - The Chinese gaming market is recovering, with total sales revenue expected to reach 350.79 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.68% [28]. - The user base for gaming in China is projected to reach 683 million by 2025, providing a solid foundation for revenue growth [29]. - The mobile gaming segment dominates the market, accounting for 73.29% of total revenue, while client games follow with a 22.28% share [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [2] Core Insights - The four categories of retail loans (mortgages, credit cards, consumer loans, and business loans) collectively constitute household liabilities, each with distinct collateral types, duration structures, and policy influences. The report aims to establish a risk framework for these retail assets and assess their impact on banking operations in the future [2][4] - Under stress testing, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for mortgages, credit cards, and consumer loans are projected to increase by 11, 12, and 20 basis points respectively in 2026, while the growth in non-performing amounts remains manageable. The overall quality of corporate assets is expected to continue improving, indicating a stable banking sector [2][4] - Retail asset risks are deemed controllable, with policies expected to maintain stability in the near term [2] Summary by Sections Retail Asset Analysis Framework: Collateral Types + Duration Structure + Policy Impact - The overall NPL ratio for retail loans of listed banks is estimated at 1.27% in the first half of 2025, slightly above the corporate NPL ratio of 1.26%, but the increase in NPL ratios is stabilizing. The composition of existing NPLs is 63% corporate and 37% retail, with business loans and mortgages showing higher proportions of both existing and newly added NPLs [2][12] - The report establishes a risk analysis framework for retail assets, highlighting the differences in collateral types, duration structures, and policy impacts among the four categories of retail loans [2][4] Consumer Loans: "High-Risk" Assets - The relationship between consumer loans and consumption trends is closely aligned, with notable deviations occurring during strict property purchase restrictions and regulatory cycles for online loans. The market structure for consumer credit (excluding credit cards and mortgages) shows that listed banks hold over 51.5% of the market, while non-listed banks account for 17% and other players for 31% [2][4] - The risk logic for consumer credit indicates that risk pricing is primarily determined by interest rates, which can be categorized into four tiers based on risk levels. The report estimates that 4.4% of consumer loans fall into the "high-risk" category, with commercial banks' high-risk consumer loans representing only 0.6% of their total consumer loans [2][4] Mortgage Loans: Risk Sources and International Comparisons - The primary sources of mortgage risk include negative cash flow and high loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, with 1.2% of respondents reporting monthly incomes below their mortgage payments. The report anticipates that the current high LTV portion, which constitutes 2.9% of total mortgage balances, will not necessarily lead to increased NPLs [2][4] - International comparisons indicate that mortgage NPL ratios in most countries remain below 2%, suggesting that the risks in the domestic market are manageable [2][4] Business Loans: High-Risk Assets - The report estimates that approximately 2 trillion yuan of high-risk business loans were outstanding at the end of 2021, with nearly one-third of these high-risk assets already exposed. The peak of risk exposure is expected in 2024 and the first half of 2025, with NPL ratios projected to rise by 18 basis points to 1.96% under stress testing conditions [2][4] Credit Cards: Early NPL Exposure - Credit cards have historically shown early exposure to NPLs, with the NPL ratio at 2.44% in the first half of 2025. The report notes that the net increase in credit card NPLs has significantly decreased, indicating that credit cards are not currently a major pressure point for banks [2][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests two main investment lines for bank stocks: focusing on regional banks with strong certainty and advantages, particularly in areas like Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chengdu, Shandong, and Fujian, and recommending large banks with high dividend yields such as Agricultural Bank, Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank [2][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance, excluding share-based payment expenses, showed significant year-on-year growth, with interconnect chip revenue reaching a new high [7][11] - The company is positioned as a leader in memory interface chips, with rapid growth in AI and accelerated penetration of DDR5 technology expected to drive future growth [11] Financial Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.632 billion yuan, up 67% year-on-year [8] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 1.424 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57%, while net profit was 470 million yuan, up 23% year-on-year [8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 63.3%, an increase of 5 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company expects to achieve net profits of 2.1 billion yuan, 3.4 billion yuan, and 4.2 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 68, 43, and 35 [11] Product and Market Developments - Q3 2025 saw interconnect chip revenue reach 1.371 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62%, with a gross margin of 65.7% [9] - The company has transitioned its stock appreciation rights to restricted stock to mitigate the negative impact of share-based payments on profits [9] - The DDR5 memory interface chip continues to evolve, with the third generation RCD chip sales surpassing the second generation for the first time [9][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding" [2] Core Viewpoints - The tax adjustment for listed insurance companies has a limited overall impact, primarily affecting cash flow rather than profit and loss statements or balance sheets [5][10] - The new accounting standards provide insurance companies with an OCI option, which reduces the impact of interest rate fluctuations on net profit [5] - The average effective tax rate for listed insurance companies has been low, with rates of 10%, 8%, -1%, -6%, 12%, and 17% from 2020 to Q3 2025, indicating a disconnect between tax burdens and actual operating performance [5][12] - The estimated taxable profit difference for listed companies under the new and old standards is projected to be 42 billion in 2023 and 93 billion in 2024, with a significant portion of this difference being attributable to insurance contracts [5][18] Summary by Relevant Sections Tax Adjustment Impact - The tax adjustment is expected to have a minimal effect on operating cash flow, with an average impact of 2.27% across listed insurance companies [5][18] - Specific companies like New China Life and China Life may experience a more significant impact, estimated at around 14% for New China Life [5][18] Financial Performance - The listed insurance companies have seen record high pre-tax profits in the first three quarters of 2025, exceeding the total profits of 2024 [11] - The actual income tax paid has not kept pace with rising profits, indicating a potential for future tax liabilities [12] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Life (A/H), Ping An (A/H), China Pacific Insurance (A/H), New China Life (A/H), and China Property & Casualty Insurance (A/H) for investment opportunities [5]

证券研究报告 日期：2026年1月5日 【中泰电子】2026 CES前瞻 端侧AI蓄势待发 分析师： 王芳 S0740521120002，杨旭 S0740521120001，洪嘉琳 S0740524090003 1 主题演讲 | 厂 商 | 会议主题 | 亮 点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 英伟达 | NVIDIA CEO主旨演讲 | 英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋将介绍英伟达与合作伙伴的突破性技术进展 ，预计将介绍 | | | | Rubin平台最新进度以及NVLink与ASIC生态系合作进展 | | AMD | CES开幕主题演讲 | AMD首席执行官苏姿丰将将深入探讨AMD CPU、GPU、自行调适计算技术、AI软件与解决方案 | | | | 并揭露最新Zen 6架构及AI 等相关解决方案 ，预计将释出MI400系列最新信息 PC平台产品线 ， | | 英特尔 | 英特尔 CES 2026 主题演讲 | 主题演讲将由英特尔客户端计算事业部CCG总经理Jim Johnson主持 将重点阐述英特尔AI PC战 ， | | | 略 | Ultra "Panther ，预计将首发酷睿 第3代 ...

浪潮软件：数字政府解决方案领先厂商，多领域数字化业务布局 IT 服务Ⅱ 浪潮软件（600756.SH） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2026 年 01 月 05 日 | 公司盈利预测及估值 | 增持（首次） | 评级： | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,553 | 1,870 | 1,645 | 1,567 | 1,540 | 分析师：苏仪 | 增长率 | 23% | -27% | -12% | -5% | -2% | yoy% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 91 | 14 | -22 | 1 | 22 | 执业证书编号：S0740520060001 | 增长率 | 43% | -85% | -262% | 104% | 2,146% | yoy% | | Email：suyi@zts.com.cn | 每股收益（元） | 0 ...