Core Viewpoints - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued the "Guidelines for Market Value Management of Listed Companies," which encourages listed companies to enhance their investment value through mergers and acquisitions, cash dividends, and other legal methods [3] - The guidelines emphasize the need for listed companies to focus on their core business, improve operational efficiency, and profitability, while also encouraging the formulation of medium- and long-term dividend plans [3] - State-owned cultural enterprises are expected to benefit from these policies due to their abundant cash reserves and resource advantages, which could lead to increased competitiveness through resource integration and mergers [3] Industry Analysis - The guidelines specifically target major index component companies, such as those in the CSI 300 and CSI A500 indices, requiring them to establish market value management systems [3] - Long-term undervalued companies are also required to develop valuation enhancement plans [3] - State-owned cultural enterprises are highlighted for their potential to leverage policy support to accelerate resource integration and enhance their competitive position in the industry [3] Investment Opportunities - State-owned cultural enterprises with strong cash reserves and resource advantages are seen as attractive investment opportunities [3] - Private media companies that have already disclosed external mergers and acquisitions are also recommended for attention [3]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry maintains an **Overweight** rating [1] Core Views - The Chinese traditional medicine industry is experiencing a **slight recovery in terminal demand**, with expectations of a turning point in 2025 [3][5] - The industry's performance is under **short-term pressure**, but **operational quality is improving steadily** [5][12] - **OTC (Over-the-Counter) companies** show resilience, with slight improvements in Q3 2024 [18] - **Cost pressures** from rising raw material prices are expected to ease starting in 2025, leading to a recovery in gross margins [20][25] Key Company Performance - **Huaren Sanjiu (华润三九)**: Maintains a **Buy** rating with EPS projections of 2.61 (2024E), 3.02 (2025E), and 3.47 (2026E) [2] - **Dong-E-E-Jiao (东阿阿胶)**: Rated **Buy** with EPS expected to grow from 2.33 (2024E) to 3.43 (2026E) [2] - **Taiji Group (太极集团)**: Also rated **Buy**, with EPS forecasts of 1.32 (2024E), 1.56 (2025E), and 1.81 (2026E) [2] - **Tongrentang (同仁堂)**: Rated **Buy**, with EPS projections of 1.43 (2024E), 1.67 (2025E), and 1.87 (2026E) [2] - **Fangsheng Pharmaceutical (方盛制药)**: Rated **Buy**, with EPS expected to rise from 0.65 (2024E) to 0.91 (2026E) [2] Industry Financial Performance - **Revenue**: Total revenue for 63 traditional medicine companies in Q3 2024 was **260.8 billion yuan**, a **3.25% YoY decline** [5][12] - **Net Profit**: Non-GAAP net profit was **27.6 billion yuan**, down **8.59% YoY** [5][12] - **Gross Margin**: The industry's gross margin was **42.19%**, a **2.51pp YoY decline**, primarily due to rising raw material costs [5][12] - **Operating Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow was **19.43 billion yuan**, a **17.59% YoY decline** [5][12] Operational Efficiency - **Sales Expense Ratio**: The median sales expense ratio for the industry was **31.9%**, a **1.5pp YoY decline**, reflecting improved cost control [25] - **Accounts Receivable**: Accounts receivable as a percentage of total revenue was **32.8%**, showing a slight improvement in Q3 2024 [27] - **Inventory Turnover**: Inventory turnover improved, with inventory as a percentage of total assets at **13.0%** [27] Market Trends - **Retail Pharmacy Market**: The retail pharmacy market size (including drugs and non-drugs) in China was **384.8 billion yuan** for Jan-Sep 2024, a **2.2% YoY decline** [33] - **Monthly Recovery**: The market showed signs of recovery in July-September 2024, with **0.9% YoY growth in September** [33] - **OTC Segment**: OTC companies demonstrated resilience, with median revenue and non-GAAP net profit growth of **-0.1% and +4.2%** respectively in Q3 2024 [18] Future Outlook - **2025 Recovery**: The industry is expected to return to **normalized growth** in 2025, with easing cost pressures and improving gross margins [6][20] - **Key Investment Themes**: Focus on **state-owned enterprise reform** (e.g., Huaren Sanjiu, Dong-E-E-Jiao) and **companies with strong operational trends** (e.g., Fangsheng Pharmaceutical, Zuoli Pharmaceutical) [6]

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Jianghai Capacitor (002484 SZ) [2][4] Core Views - Q3 2024 performance under pressure due to weak downstream demand, but strong growth momentum in three key areas: aluminum electrolytic capacitors, film capacitors, and supercapacitors [3] - Significant progress in new energy and AI fields, with MLPC (AI server key component) achieving major breakthroughs, indicating substantial future growth potential [3] - Revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 1 175 million, down 9 94% YoY and 10 48% QoQ, with net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 147 million, down 20 98% YoY and 30 2% QoQ [3] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 25 27%, down 0 63 ppts YoY and 0 75 ppts QoQ, while net margin was 12 57%, down 1 79 ppts YoY and 3 67 ppts QoQ [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecast for 2024/2025/2026: RMB 5 308/6 211/7 298 million, with YoY growth of 10%/17%/18% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders forecast for 2024/2025/2026: RMB 719/903/1 094 million, with YoY growth of 2%/26%/21% [2] - EPS forecast for 2024/2025/2026: RMB 0 85/1 06/1 29 [2] - P/E ratios for 2024/2025/2026: 19 2x/15 3x/12 6x [2] Business Highlights - Jianghai Capacitor is one of the few global companies engaged in R&D, manufacturing, and sales of three major types of capacitors, with products widely used in smart home appliances, 5G communication, photovoltaic and wind power, energy storage, rail transit, data and image processing, industrial automation, and robotics [3] - The company has formed strategic alliances through international cooperation and rapidly entered the automotive sector, particularly in electric vehicles [3] - In the aluminum electrolytic capacitor sector, the company is consolidating and expanding its market share in industrial control, new energy, and automotive fields, while advancing MLPC and hybrid capacitors in high-end markets [3] - In the film capacitor sector, the company is focusing on new energy and electric vehicle applications, accelerating capacity expansion and technological upgrades to meet rapidly growing customer demand [3] - In the supercapacitor sector, the company is contributing solutions to global grid intelligence transformation, comprehensive energy storage, energy conservation, and green manufacturing [3] Valuation and Recommendations - Based on the closing price on 2024/11/18, the company's P/E ratios for 2024/2025/2026 are 19x/15x/13x, supporting the maintained "Buy" rating [4]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry maintains an **Overweight** rating [1] Core Views - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with sales area and sales amount improving in October 2024, driven by policy relaxation and market confidence restoration [6][19] - Investment in the real estate sector continues to decline, with new construction starts falling, while completion data shows a slight improvement [7][33] - Funding sources for real estate developers have shown a slight recovery, with expectations of further improvement due to policy support [8][37] - Policy relaxation continues, with housing prices showing a year-on-year decline, but the pace of decline is expected to stabilize [38] Key Company Performance - **Poly Development**: Current stock price is 10.11 yuan, with EPS expected to grow from 1.53 in 2022 to 1.27 in 2026, and a **Buy** rating [2] - **China Merchants Property Operation & Service**: Current stock price is 10.95 yuan, with EPS expected to grow from 0.56 in 2022 to 1.19 in 2026, and a **Buy** rating [2] - **China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services**: Current stock price is 30.75 yuan, with EPS expected to grow from 0.97 in 2022 to 2.23 in 2026, and a **Buy** rating [2] - **Poly Property**: Current stock price is 31.30 yuan, with EPS expected to grow from 2.01 in 2022 to 3.93 in 2026, and a **Buy** rating [3] Industry Macro Data Summary - From January to October 2024, the sales area of commercial housing was 77,930 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%, with residential sales area down by 17.7% [15] - The sales amount of commercial housing was 7,685.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%, with residential sales amount down by 22.0% [15] - National real estate development investment was 8,630.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, with residential investment down by 10.4% [15] Sales Recovery and Policy Impact - Sales area and sales amount in October 2024 showed significant improvement, with sales area up by 1.3 percentage points and sales amount up by 1.8 percentage points compared to September 2024 [19] - Policy relaxation, including lower mortgage rates and relaxed purchase restrictions, has contributed to the recovery in sales [19] Investment and Construction Trends - Real estate investment in January-October 2024 decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, with new construction starts down by 22.6% and completion area down by 23.9% [33] - Despite the decline in investment, the completion area showed a slight improvement, rising by 0.5 percentage points compared to September 2024 [33] Funding Sources and Future Outlook - Funding sources for real estate developers improved slightly, with a 0.8 percentage point increase in the growth rate of funds received compared to September 2024 [37] - Policy support, including increased credit quotas for project financing, is expected to further improve funding conditions [37] Policy Relaxation and Housing Prices - Housing prices continue to decline year-on-year, but the pace of decline is expected to stabilize due to ongoing policy relaxation [38] - The central government's policy stance of "stabilizing the market" is expected to support a gradual recovery in housing prices [38] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong performance and high safety margins, particularly those operating in first- and second-tier cities [45] - Key companies to watch include **Binjiang Group**, **Chengdu Hi-Tech**, **China Merchants Shekou**, **Huafa Group**, and **Poly Development** [45] - In the Hong Kong market, companies like **Beike**, **Greentown China**, **Yuexiu Property**, and **China Resources Land** are recommended [45]

分析师：何佳烨 执业证书编号：S0740523060002 Email：hejy01@zts.com.cn 2024 年 11 月 15 日，财政部、国家税务总局发布《关于调整出口退税政策的公告》， 自 2024 年 12 月 1 日起，取消铝材、铜材以及化学改性的动、植物或微生物油、脂等 产品出口退税，将部分成品油、光伏、电池、部分非金属矿物制品的出口退税率由 13% 下调至 9%。其中，取消出口退税的涉铝编码共计 24 个，几乎涵盖了国内主要铝型材、 铝板带箔、铝制条杆等铝材产品。 相关报告 资产配置框架系列报告： 1 重新认识美林时钟 ——大类资产配置框架研究系列 1 我国从 1985 年开始实行出口退税政策，为促进我国外贸保稳提质注入强劲信心和动 力，出口退税为中国成为并保持世界货物贸易第一大国的地位，发挥了重要的作用。 出口退税是指国家对出口企业或出口货物实行的一种税收优惠政策，其目的是为了鼓 励出口、提高国际市场竞争力。具体来说，出口退税主要涉及退还或免除在出口商品 生产和流通过程中已缴纳的增值税和消费税。通过对 2007 年出口退税政策变化前后 各一年的相关铝材月度出口量进行回顾，我们发现出口退 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The Bald Hill mine has entered a closure and maintenance phase, impacting lithium supply [1] - Domestic policies continue to support the market, with expected price elasticity for minor metals, particularly in rare earths, tin, antimony, and tungsten [1] - Short-term demand for rare earths is gradually recovering, with increasing uncertainty on the supply side, leading to a price rebound [1] - Antimony prices are expected to rise due to tight supply and high demand in the photovoltaic sector [1] - Tin prices are anticipated to increase as semiconductor demand recovers and photovoltaic sector remains strong [1] Market Review - The small metal prices have shown divergence this week, with lithium carbonate prices increasing by 5.26% to 80,000 CNY/ton [1] - The domestic price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreased by 0.94% to 420,000 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide fell by 2.86% [1] - Tin prices on SHFE decreased by 6.61% and LME tin fell by 10.21% [1] - Antimony ingot prices decreased by 0.68%, while antimony concentrate prices remained stable [1] Demand Trends - The photovoltaic sector is entering a peak season, with domestic new installations in September 2024 reaching 20.89 GW, a year-on-year increase of 32% [1] - In the new energy vehicle sector, production and sales in October reached 1.463 million and 1.43 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 48% and 49.6% [1] - Battery production in October totaled 113.1 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 1.6% and a year-on-year increase of 45.5% [1] - The production of cathode materials in October was 298,800 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.39% [1] Lithium Market - Lithium prices have rebounded, with the main contract price increasing by 0.90% to 78,300 CNY/ton [1] - The domestic price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 80,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a 5.26% increase [1] - The supply side shows a weekly production of 14,507 tons of lithium carbonate, with social inventory decreasing [1] - The Bald Hill mine's closure signals potential further production cuts as lithium prices decline [1] Rare Earth Market - The uncertainty in Myanmar's supply continues, with expectations for gradual price increases in rare earths [1] - The domestic price of dysprosium oxide is 1.7 million CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 2.86% [1] - The price of antimony concentrate remains stable at 125,000 CNY/ton, while antimony ingot prices are at 146,900 CNY/ton [1] Tin Market - Tin prices are expected to trend upwards due to recovering demand and supply constraints [1] - SHFE tin prices closed at 243,500 CNY/ton, down 6.61% from the previous week [1] - The import volume of tin ore in September was 7,873 tons, a decrease of 9% month-on-month [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for key companies in the pharmaceutical sector, including WuXi AppTec, China Resources Sanjiu, Dong-E E-Jiao, Xianju Pharmaceutical, and others [2][4][38]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector's performance is closely tied to market trends, with a recommendation to shift focus towards 2025. The report notes that the sector has experienced a decline of 3.92% this week, underperforming the broader market [3][15]. - The recent release of the medical insurance fund prepayment policy is expected to alleviate some financial pressures on medical institutions, enhancing their sustainability and operational efficiency [17][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with improving fundamentals, particularly those in high-growth or turnaround situations, as the market transitions towards 2025 [3][15]. Summary by Sections Key Company Performance - WuXi AppTec: 2024E EPS forecast at 3.41, PE ratio at 15.51, rated "Buy" [2]. - China Resources Sanjiu: 2024E EPS forecast at 2.57, PE ratio at 18.73, rated "Buy" [2]. - Dong-E E-Jiao: 2024E EPS forecast at 2.25, PE ratio at 25.89, rated "Buy" [2]. - Xianju Pharmaceutical: 2024E EPS forecast at 0.69, PE ratio at 18.28, rated "Buy" [2]. - Other companies such as Kangfang Biotech and Aier Eye Hospital also received "Buy" ratings with positive EPS forecasts [2]. Market Dynamics - The pharmaceutical sector has seen a year-to-date return of -9.8%, significantly underperforming the CSI 300 index, which has a return of 15.7% [23]. - All sub-sectors within pharmaceuticals experienced declines this week, with medical services down 5.51% and chemical pharmaceuticals down 4.08% [5][23]. Valuation Metrics - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 23.8x PE based on 2024 earnings forecasts, with a premium of 19% over the broader A-share market [27]. - Using TTM valuation, the sector stands at 27.7x PE, below its historical average of 35.3x PE, indicating potential undervaluation [27]. Individual Stock Performance - Notable performers include Nuotai Biological, which saw a monthly increase of 11.68% and a weekly increase of 3.16% [37][38]. - The average performance of recommended stocks was a monthly increase of 3.88%, outperforming the pharmaceutical sector by 2.26% [37].

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】电子王芳：多款 AI 眼镜发布，端侧百花 齐放 证券研究报告/晨会聚焦 2024 年 11 月 18 日 分析师：戴志锋 今日预览 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 【电子】王芳：多款 AI 眼镜发布，端侧百花齐放 晨报内容回顾 1、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】非银戴 志锋：市值管理指引正式稿：总体内 容与征求稿保持一致，持续推动提升 上市公司质量》2024-11-17 2、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收肖 雨："特朗普交易"或进一步分化—— 10 月美国通胀数据点评》2024-11-14 3、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】 固收 肖雨：如何评价区域再融资能力？》 2024-11-13 研究分享>> 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 研究分享 【电子】王芳：多款 AI 眼镜发布，端侧百花齐放 电子指数-3.77%，建议关注 AI 端侧创新&并购重组方向。 本周（2024/11/11-2024/11/15）市场有所回调，沪深 300 指数-3.29%，上证综指-3.24%，深证成 指-3.7%，创业板指数-3.36%，中 ...

多款 AI 眼镜发布，端侧百花齐放 电子 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2024 年 11 月 17 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

1 证券研究报告：大宗商品观察系列 中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 全球制造业PMI跟踪：10月回暖 谢鸿鹤（ SAC证书编号：S0740517080003 ） 安永超（ SAC证书编号：S0740522090002 ） 2024年11月17日 42 40 -0.15 0 9-0 6 0 9-10 10-0 2 10-0 6 10-10 11-0 2 11-0 6 11-10 12-0 2 12-0 6 全球制造业景气（vs.库存周期）刻度：低位震荡 10月全球制造业PMI (J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI)指数录得49.4，环比回升0.7个百分点，仍处于收缩区间。若以2023年1月份为启动点，目前本轮周期累计 运行22个月，在全球主要经济体逆周期调节等政策，尤其是新兴市场的拉动下，下滑趋势有所放缓并出现低位震荡。 图表： 全球制造业PMI指数与库存周期滤波图 60 全球制造业摩根大通PMI 库存周期（即基钦周期，滤波数据，40个月，右轴） 库存周期象限分界 0.15 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...