Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the continuation of policies for the replacement of old electric vehicles in the new energy vehicle sector until 2026, with a focus on the need for 230GWh of energy storage in India by 2030 to support its non-fossil energy goals [1][20] - The report emphasizes the significant growth in energy storage projects in Shanxi Province, with a record increase in the number of projects and total capacity [21] - The report notes the introduction of a compensation mechanism for energy storage capacity in Gansu Province, which will support the development of new energy storage technologies [23] - The report discusses the anticipated large-scale application of sodium batteries by CATL starting in 2026, aimed at reducing reliance on lithium resources [13] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - CATL plans to apply sodium batteries in various fields from 2026 to reduce dependence on lithium [7][13] - The report forecasts a potential increase in performance and valuation for lithium battery companies over the next two years, recommending companies like CATL and EVE Energy [7] - The report tracks the performance of the battery industry index, noting a decline of 2.58% [11] Energy Storage Sector - India requires 230GWh of energy storage by 2030 to support its 500GW non-fossil energy target [20] - In November, Shanxi Province recorded a significant increase in energy storage project approvals, with 118 projects totaling over 50GWh [21] - Gansu Province has established a compensation mechanism for energy storage capacity, set at 330 RMB/kW per year [23] Power Equipment Sector - The report indicates support from government agencies for distributed independent storage and grid-replacement storage [25] - The report mentions the introduction of a single capacity pricing system for new energy consumption [25] Photovoltaic Sector - The report notes stable prices for silicon materials and an increase in silicon wafer prices, with expectations of limited market transactions due to high costs [29] - The report highlights the impact of rising silver prices on battery production costs, which may affect the pricing of photovoltaic components [29] Wind Power Sector - The report discusses ongoing projects in offshore wind power, indicating a robust growth outlook for domestic offshore wind installations [29]

Core Insights - The report highlights the "Davis Double Click Strategy," which involves buying stocks with low price-to-earnings (PE) ratios that have growth potential, and selling them once their growth is realized, leading to a multiplier effect on returns [3] - The "Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy" has achieved an annualized return of 29.42% since 2010, with a year-to-date absolute return of 67.17% and an excess return of 36.79% over the benchmark index [9][10] - The "Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio" is constructed based on investor preference factors, showing a stable historical excess return of 20.92% relative to the CSI 300 index this year [12][16] Group 1: Davis Double Click Strategy - The strategy has generated a back-tested annualized return of 26.45% from 2010 to 2017, outperforming the benchmark by 21.08% [3][7] - In 2025, the strategy's cumulative absolute return is reported at 55.89%, exceeding the CSI 500 index by 25.50% [7][10] - The strategy's performance is characterized by stability, with excess returns exceeding 11% in each of the seven complete years during the back-test period [3][7] Group 2: Net Profit Discontinuity Strategy - This strategy focuses on stocks that show a significant upward price gap on the first trading day after earnings announcements, indicating market approval of the earnings report [9][10] - The strategy has achieved a cumulative absolute return of 67.17% in the current year, with an excess return of 36.79% over the benchmark index [10][11] - Historical performance shows that the strategy has an annualized return of 29.42% and a stable excess return of 26.22% over the benchmark since its inception [9][10] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The portfolio is designed based on investor preferences, including GARP, growth, and value investors, aiming to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability [12][16] - The portfolio has shown a relative excess return of 20.92% against the CSI 300 index this year, with a monthly excess return of 2.58% [12][16] - The strategy's performance is supported by a historical back-test that indicates stable excess returns [12][16]

- Model Name: Timing System Model; Model Construction Idea: The model uses the distance between the long-term moving average (120 days) and the short-term moving average (20 days) to distinguish the overall market environment[2][6][11] - Model Construction Process: The model calculates the distance between the 20-day moving average and the 120-day moving average. The latest data shows the 20-day moving average at 6298 points and the 120-day moving average at 6090 points. The difference between the two lines is 3.41%, and the absolute value of the distance continues to be greater than 3%, indicating that the market is in an upward trend[2][6][11] - Model Evaluation: The model effectively identifies the market's upward trend, providing a positive signal for market timing[2][6][11] - Model Name: Industry Trend Allocation Model; Model Construction Idea: The model identifies industry trends and allocates based on medium-term reversal expectations and sector performance[2][5][7] - Model Construction Process: The model signals to focus on service consumption sectors such as tourism and media based on medium-term reversal expectations. The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on AI applications and commercial aerospace. The industry trend model shows that the communication, industrial metals, and energy storage sectors continue their upward trend[2][5][7] - Model Evaluation: The model provides clear guidance on sector allocation, helping investors to focus on promising sectors[2][5][7] - Model Name: Position Management Model; Model Construction Idea: The model suggests stock allocation based on valuation indicators and short-term trends[5][7] - Model Construction Process: The model uses the PE and PB ratios of the WIND All A Index. The PE ratio is near the 90th percentile, indicating a relatively high valuation, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, indicating a moderate level. Based on these indicators and short-term trends, the model suggests an 80% stock allocation for absolute return products[5][7] - Model Evaluation: The model provides a balanced approach to stock allocation, considering both valuation and market trends[5][7] Model Backtest Results - Timing System Model, Moving Average Distance: 3.41%[2][6][11] - Timing System Model, Market Trend Line: 6262 points[2][6][11] - Timing System Model, Profit Effect: 2.71%[2][6][11] - Position Management Model, PE Ratio: 90th percentile[5][7] - Position Management Model, PB Ratio: 50th percentile[5][7] - Position Management Model, Stock Allocation: 80%[5][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the coal industry, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Huanneng, Yancoal, China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others [5]. Core Insights - The coal market is experiencing a supply-demand tug-of-war, leading to continued price fluctuations. Recent supply constraints and increasing terminal demand have resulted in a slight recovery in port coal prices. However, as coal mines resume production after the New Year, supply is expected to stabilize, while demand is anticipated to strengthen due to colder weather [8][9]. - The report suggests a strategy of buying on dips, focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, as well as those with significant production capacity growth potential. Key recommendations include China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, and Yancoal, among others [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Business Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of dividend policies and growth prospects for listed companies in the coal sector [13][15]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - The report tracks coal price indices, noting that the price of thermal coal at the port has shown a week-on-week increase of 6 CNY/ton, while year-on-year comparisons indicate a decline [9][10]. 3. Coal Inventory Tracking - As of December 31, 2025, the inventory at the Bohai Rim ports was reported at 28.366 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.43% [8]. 4. Downstream Performance of the Coal Industry - The report highlights that the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces reached 6.116 million tons, marking a 12.78% increase compared to the end of November [8][9]. 5. Weekly Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector has seen significant price movements, with individual stocks reflecting the overall market trends. The report provides detailed performance metrics for key companies [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to enter an explosive growth phase over the next two years, driven by technological breakthroughs and policy incentives. The demand for launch services and satellite networking is anticipated to increase significantly, supported by the U.S. "America First" space policy and China's advancements in rocket launch capabilities [9][21] - The establishment of a dedicated regulatory body, the "Commercial Aerospace Administration," and the rapid acceptance of Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO indicate accelerated policy and capital support for the commercial aerospace sector [11][22] - The integration of artificial intelligence with commercial aerospace is transforming "space computing" from a concept into a commercial reality, enhancing demand for satellite manufacturing and launch services [12][23] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry comprises 142 listed companies with a total market value of 32,882.43 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 28,949.45 billion CNY [3] Key Developments - The successful launch of the "Fengyun-4C" satellite and the "Long March 7" rocket demonstrates China's growing capabilities in aerospace technology [14][30] - The first operational 30 MW pure hydrogen gas turbine marks a significant milestone in aviation equipment, showcasing advancements in green energy technology [13][28] Market Performance - The defense and military industry index rose by 3.05%, ranking second among 31 major industry sectors, with a current PE(TTM) of 78.4 times [41][48] Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies in the missile and military electronics sector include Hongyuan Electronics, Torch Electronics, and Macro Electronics [24] - In the aerospace engine sector, companies like Aero Engine Corporation of China and supporting firms such as Yingliu Co. and Aerospace Technology are highlighted [25] - For military trade, key players include AVIC Chengfei, AVIC Shenyang, and AVIC Xi'an [26] - In the new domain construction, companies like Guolian Aviation and Superjet Co. are suggested for investment in commercial aerospace [27]

A H 股市场周度观察（12 月第 5 周） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 03 日 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 是结构性切换？》2025-08-10 2、《A H 股市场周度观察（8 月第 1 周）》2025-08-04 内容目录 | A H 股市场周度观察（12月第 5 周） . | | --- | | 一、Ａ股: | | 二、港股： | | 风险捉示 … | 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 - 2 - 3、《7 月政治局会议对市场影响几 何？》2025-08-03 分析师：徐驰 报告摘要 一、A 股： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：张文宇 【市场走势】本周 A 股市场表现分化，主要宽基指数涨跌不一。上证指数微涨 0.13%， 但深证成指、创业板指和北证 50 均有所下跌，其中北证 50 跌幅最大，下跌 1.55%。 风格指数方面，中盘价值和小盘成长表现较好。行业方面，综合金融、石油石化和国 防军工领涨，而商贸零 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [4][9] Core Insights - The daily consumption of Douyin's comic dramas has surpassed 20 million yuan, indicating a significant growth trend in the industry. The total daily consumption across major platforms like Douyin, Kuaishou, and Baidu has reached approximately 30 million yuan, approaching the consumption levels of live-action short dramas [6] - The report highlights the competitive landscape, with major platforms like Baidu and NetEase launching their own comic drama applications, intensifying competition in the market. Baidu's independent comic drama app "Youmanju" was launched on December 26, while NetEase's "Lingyang" announced a new comic drama mini-program on Kuaishou [6] - The report notes a substantial increase in female-oriented comic dramas, with 243 new titles added in December, marking a 183% month-on-month growth. However, the report also points out that there is still a lack of breakout hits in this category [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry consists of 130 listed companies with a total market value of approximately 1716.49 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 1590.11 billion yuan [2] Market Trends - The comic drama content type is expanding, with AI-driven productions gaining traction. The report anticipates that the consumption scale of comic dramas may catch up to or even exceed that of live-action short dramas [6] - The competition among platforms is expected to intensify, with various production companies rapidly acquiring IP resources and talent [6] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong comic IP reserves and strategic partnerships in comic drama production, such as Rongxin Culture and Zhongwen Online. It also suggests monitoring companies involved in IP sourcing and AI technology [6]

Report Summary - The report focuses on the possible adjustment path of the term structure of interest-bearing bonds in 2026, analyzing local government bond issuance plans and related influencing factors [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - There is currently no evidence of changes in local government bond issuance terms from the plans of individual provinces; the adjustment space for general bonds is limited, and special bonds need adjustment, but the terms of special bonds for replacing implicit debts have always been long; historically, the issuance terms were adjusted downward after local government bonds "soared" in October 2023, but the current situation is different; in terms of national debt supply, the terms of general national debt have significantly shortened, and special national debt is the key focus [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Shandong's 2026 First Batch of Local Bond Issuance Plan - On December 26, Shandong announced its first batch of local bond issuance plans for 2026, with a total of 72.381 billion yuan of special bonds to be issued on January 5, 2026, with a weighted average term of 21 years. Among them, the new special bonds are 46.772 billion yuan, and the proportions of 10Y, 15Y, and 30Y are 16.2%, 25.3%, and 48.5% respectively; the refinancing special bonds for replacing implicit debts are 25.609 billion yuan, and the proportions of 10Y, 15Y, and 30Y are 6.6%, 47.0%, and 46.4% respectively. Compared with the first quarter of 2025, the term structure is relatively similar [2] Term Structure of Local Bond Issuance Plans of Announced Provinces - As of December 30, 24 regions have announced their local bond issuance plans for the first quarter or January of 2026, with a total amount of 1.88 trillion yuan. Some regions have reduced ultra-long-term varieties in their issuance plans compared with the first quarter of 2025. Local government general bonds have a relatively stable overall issuance term and limited adjustment space, while the terms of new, implicit debt replacement, and special refinancing special bonds have significantly lengthened in the past five years and have some adjustment space [2] Factors Affecting Local Bond Issuance Terms - In 2023, the weighted average issuance term of overall government bonds decreased, with the proportion of bonds over 10Y decreasing. The local bond issuance spread is a key indicator. Since June 2021, the average issuance spread of local bonds has significantly declined, but it increased in October 2023, and the issuance terms of general and special bonds decreased. In terms of national debt supply, the terms of general national debt have significantly shortened in recent years, while special national debt is the main provider of ultra-long bonds [2][3]

2025 年债市启示录：框架的贫穷 证券研究报告/固收专题报告 2025 年 12 月 30 日 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525070001 Email：yanly@zts.com.cn 分析师：游勇 执业证书编号：S0740524070004 Email：youyong@zts.com.cn Email：suht@zts.com.cn 1、《近期波动溯源，跨年行情如何演 绎？》2025-12-21 2 、《 当 下 债 市 热 点 问 题 探 讨 》 2025-12-21 跌》2025-12-16 报告摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 分析师：严伶怡 2025 年过去了，但市场似乎较多人并未意识到，今年其实是比 2017 年更"难受"的一 年。从中债总全价指数看，今年虽然跌幅不及"熊市天花板"的 2017 年（-4.26%），但 市场的几个表现上看可能都"更差"。第一，2017 年存单收益率较高，不少人在年初就 开始用存单"躺平"，但 2024 年底市场对债券投资的要求都是"从交易获得收益"；第二， ...

Core Insights - The report projects a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, emphasizing a coordinated approach to promote consumption and expand investment to ensure a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][4] - China's exports are expected to maintain resilience, with a projected growth of 3.4% in 2026, supported by factors such as re-export trade and the gradual impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade [3][4] - Manufacturing investment is anticipated to recover slightly from 1% in 2025 to around 2% in 2026, driven by resilient exports and continued policy support for advanced manufacturing [4] Economic Outlook - The real estate sector is expected to see a decline in sales area by approximately 5% in 2026, but the direct drag on the economy from real estate investment is expected to lessen, with a projected decline of around 11% compared to 16% in 2025 [5] - Expanding domestic demand is identified as a crucial pathway to achieve the 5% GDP growth target, with a focus on promoting consumption and investment [5][6] - Consumer sentiment is expected to recover gradually, with government support for consumption projected to remain at least at the 300 billion level seen in 2025 [5][6] Investment and Policy - Infrastructure investment is forecasted to rebound from a decline of about 1% in 2025 to an increase of 8% in 2026, supported by previously announced policies [6] - The report indicates a moderate recovery in consumer prices, with PPI expected to improve from -2.6% in 2025 to -1.2% in 2026, and CPI from 0.0% to 0.5% [6] - Fiscal policy is projected to remain supportive, with a broad deficit expected to increase from approximately 11.86 trillion to 12.45 trillion, reflecting a slight rise in the broad deficit ratio [7][8]