Core Insights - The report discusses the dual nature of the OCI (Other Comprehensive Income) option in the context of the tax adjustments for insurance companies transitioning to new accounting standards, indicating that the impact on cash flow from tax retroactivity is limited [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Tax Adjustment Overview - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice regarding the tax treatment for the transition to new insurance contract standards, effective from 2026, allowing companies to smooth out tax differences over five years [3][6]. - The overall impact of this tax adjustment on listed insurance companies is deemed limited, as most have already implemented the new standards since early 2023 [3][4]. Profitability and Tax Rates - Listed insurance companies have seen record high profits, with pre-tax profits in the first three quarters of 2025 exceeding the total for 2024, while actual tax rates have remained low, indicating a disconnect between tax obligations and operational performance [4][5]. - The average effective tax rates from 2020 to Q3 2025 were 10%, 8%, -1%, -6%, 12%, and 17%, with some companies reporting negative tax rates in certain years [4]. Impact of New Accounting Standards - The core difference in profits under the old and new accounting standards is attributed to the 750 curve, which has declined, affecting net profit levels, particularly for life insurance companies [5]. - The new standards provide an OCI option that mitigates the impact of interest rate declines on net profit, but it also removes the tax shield previously available under the old standards [5]. Cash Flow Implications - The tax adjustments are expected to have a minimal impact on operating cash flows, with the average effect on listed insurance companies estimated at 2.27%, while companies like Xinhua and China Life may experience a more significant impact of around 14% [6]. - The choice of how to account for retained earnings from the new standards will influence the actual cash flow effects, with options to either include them in the taxable income for 2026 or spread them over five years [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring major listed insurance companies such as China Life, Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, Xinhua Insurance, and China Property & Casualty Insurance for potential investment opportunities [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Century Huatong (002602.SZ) for the first time [1]. Core Insights - Century Huatong has transformed from an automotive parts manufacturer to a leading player in the internet gaming sector, achieving record-high performance in 2025 with revenue of 27.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.30% [6][19]. - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 4.36 billion yuan, reflecting a 142% increase compared to the same period in 2024, indicating improved profitability efficiency [6][19]. - The revenue structure has shifted significantly, with mobile games accounting for 84.7% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, and overseas revenue surpassing domestic revenue for the first time, reaching 52.06% [6][27]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2023A: 13,285 - 2024A: 22,620 - 2025E: 38,204 - 2026E: 48,799 - 2027E: 53,679 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: 16% - 2024A: 70% - 2025E: 69% - 2026E: 28% - 2027E: 10% [1] - Net profit (in million yuan): - 2023A: 524 - 2024A: 1,213 - 2025E: 5,721 - 2026E: 7,988 - 2027E: 9,755 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2023A: 108% - 2024A: 132% - 2025E: 372% - 2026E: 40% - 2027E: 22% [1] Business Development - Century Huatong has undergone three phases of evolution, transitioning from automotive parts to internet gaming, and has successfully lifted risk warnings, marking a new development stage [12][14]. - The subsidiary, Diandian Interactive, has become a core growth engine, with revenue increasing from 3.74 billion yuan in 2022 to 14.96 billion yuan in 2024, and accounting for 76% of the group's total revenue in the first half of 2025 [6][70]. - The company has consistently launched successful new products, with titles like "Endless Winter" and "Kingshot" achieving significant market recognition and revenue [6][73]. Market Trends - The Chinese gaming market is recovering, with total sales revenue expected to reach 350.79 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.68% [28]. - The user base for gaming in China is projected to reach 683 million by 2025, providing a solid foundation for revenue growth [29]. - The mobile gaming segment dominates the market, accounting for 73.29% of total revenue, while client games follow with a 22.28% share [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [2] Core Insights - The four categories of retail loans (mortgages, credit cards, consumer loans, and business loans) collectively constitute household liabilities, each with distinct collateral types, duration structures, and policy influences. The report aims to establish a risk framework for these retail assets and assess their impact on banking operations in the future [2][4] - Under stress testing, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for mortgages, credit cards, and consumer loans are projected to increase by 11, 12, and 20 basis points respectively in 2026, while the growth in non-performing amounts remains manageable. The overall quality of corporate assets is expected to continue improving, indicating a stable banking sector [2][4] - Retail asset risks are deemed controllable, with policies expected to maintain stability in the near term [2] Summary by Sections Retail Asset Analysis Framework: Collateral Types + Duration Structure + Policy Impact - The overall NPL ratio for retail loans of listed banks is estimated at 1.27% in the first half of 2025, slightly above the corporate NPL ratio of 1.26%, but the increase in NPL ratios is stabilizing. The composition of existing NPLs is 63% corporate and 37% retail, with business loans and mortgages showing higher proportions of both existing and newly added NPLs [2][12] - The report establishes a risk analysis framework for retail assets, highlighting the differences in collateral types, duration structures, and policy impacts among the four categories of retail loans [2][4] Consumer Loans: "High-Risk" Assets - The relationship between consumer loans and consumption trends is closely aligned, with notable deviations occurring during strict property purchase restrictions and regulatory cycles for online loans. The market structure for consumer credit (excluding credit cards and mortgages) shows that listed banks hold over 51.5% of the market, while non-listed banks account for 17% and other players for 31% [2][4] - The risk logic for consumer credit indicates that risk pricing is primarily determined by interest rates, which can be categorized into four tiers based on risk levels. The report estimates that 4.4% of consumer loans fall into the "high-risk" category, with commercial banks' high-risk consumer loans representing only 0.6% of their total consumer loans [2][4] Mortgage Loans: Risk Sources and International Comparisons - The primary sources of mortgage risk include negative cash flow and high loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, with 1.2% of respondents reporting monthly incomes below their mortgage payments. The report anticipates that the current high LTV portion, which constitutes 2.9% of total mortgage balances, will not necessarily lead to increased NPLs [2][4] - International comparisons indicate that mortgage NPL ratios in most countries remain below 2%, suggesting that the risks in the domestic market are manageable [2][4] Business Loans: High-Risk Assets - The report estimates that approximately 2 trillion yuan of high-risk business loans were outstanding at the end of 2021, with nearly one-third of these high-risk assets already exposed. The peak of risk exposure is expected in 2024 and the first half of 2025, with NPL ratios projected to rise by 18 basis points to 1.96% under stress testing conditions [2][4] Credit Cards: Early NPL Exposure - Credit cards have historically shown early exposure to NPLs, with the NPL ratio at 2.44% in the first half of 2025. The report notes that the net increase in credit card NPLs has significantly decreased, indicating that credit cards are not currently a major pressure point for banks [2][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests two main investment lines for bank stocks: focusing on regional banks with strong certainty and advantages, particularly in areas like Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chengdu, Shandong, and Fujian, and recommending large banks with high dividend yields such as Agricultural Bank, Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank [2][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance, excluding share-based payment expenses, showed significant year-on-year growth, with interconnect chip revenue reaching a new high [7][11] - The company is positioned as a leader in memory interface chips, with rapid growth in AI and accelerated penetration of DDR5 technology expected to drive future growth [11] Financial Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.632 billion yuan, up 67% year-on-year [8] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 1.424 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57%, while net profit was 470 million yuan, up 23% year-on-year [8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 63.3%, an increase of 5 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company expects to achieve net profits of 2.1 billion yuan, 3.4 billion yuan, and 4.2 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 68, 43, and 35 [11] Product and Market Developments - Q3 2025 saw interconnect chip revenue reach 1.371 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62%, with a gross margin of 65.7% [9] - The company has transitioned its stock appreciation rights to restricted stock to mitigate the negative impact of share-based payments on profits [9] - The DDR5 memory interface chip continues to evolve, with the third generation RCD chip sales surpassing the second generation for the first time [9][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding" [2] Core Viewpoints - The tax adjustment for listed insurance companies has a limited overall impact, primarily affecting cash flow rather than profit and loss statements or balance sheets [5][10] - The new accounting standards provide insurance companies with an OCI option, which reduces the impact of interest rate fluctuations on net profit [5] - The average effective tax rate for listed insurance companies has been low, with rates of 10%, 8%, -1%, -6%, 12%, and 17% from 2020 to Q3 2025, indicating a disconnect between tax burdens and actual operating performance [5][12] - The estimated taxable profit difference for listed companies under the new and old standards is projected to be 42 billion in 2023 and 93 billion in 2024, with a significant portion of this difference being attributable to insurance contracts [5][18] Summary by Relevant Sections Tax Adjustment Impact - The tax adjustment is expected to have a minimal effect on operating cash flow, with an average impact of 2.27% across listed insurance companies [5][18] - Specific companies like New China Life and China Life may experience a more significant impact, estimated at around 14% for New China Life [5][18] Financial Performance - The listed insurance companies have seen record high pre-tax profits in the first three quarters of 2025, exceeding the total profits of 2024 [11] - The actual income tax paid has not kept pace with rising profits, indicating a potential for future tax liabilities [12] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China Life (A/H), Ping An (A/H), China Pacific Insurance (A/H), New China Life (A/H), and China Property & Casualty Insurance (A/H) for investment opportunities [5]

证券研究报告 日期：2026年1月5日 【中泰电子】2026 CES前瞻 端侧AI蓄势待发 分析师： 王芳 S0740521120002，杨旭 S0740521120001，洪嘉琳 S0740524090003 1 主题演讲 | 厂 商 | 会议主题 | 亮 点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 英伟达 | NVIDIA CEO主旨演讲 | 英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋将介绍英伟达与合作伙伴的突破性技术进展 ，预计将介绍 | | | | Rubin平台最新进度以及NVLink与ASIC生态系合作进展 | | AMD | CES开幕主题演讲 | AMD首席执行官苏姿丰将将深入探讨AMD CPU、GPU、自行调适计算技术、AI软件与解决方案 | | | | 并揭露最新Zen 6架构及AI 等相关解决方案 ，预计将释出MI400系列最新信息 PC平台产品线 ， | | 英特尔 | 英特尔 CES 2026 主题演讲 | 主题演讲将由英特尔客户端计算事业部CCG总经理Jim Johnson主持 将重点阐述英特尔AI PC战 ， | | | 略 | Ultra "Panther ，预计将首发酷睿 第3代 ...

浪潮软件：数字政府解决方案领先厂商，多领域数字化业务布局 IT 服务Ⅱ 浪潮软件（600756.SH） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2026 年 01 月 05 日 | 公司盈利预测及估值 | 增持（首次） | 评级： | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 2,553 | 1,870 | 1,645 | 1,567 | 1,540 | 分析师：苏仪 | 增长率 | 23% | -27% | -12% | -5% | -2% | yoy% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 91 | 14 | -22 | 1 | 22 | 执业证书编号：S0740520060001 | 增长率 | 43% | -85% | -262% | 104% | 2,146% | yoy% | | Email：suyi@zts.com.cn | 每股收益（元） | 0 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report predicts that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will slowly rebound to near zero in the first half of 2026, with the AR-gap and Phillips curve models indicating a mild recovery in PPI year-on-year, although the support from macro variables is weaker than the momentum of inflation itself [7][19]. - Beneficiary sectors during the historical periods when PPI rises from negative to positive include non-ferrous metals, real estate, building materials, machinery, electricity, home appliances, agriculture, coal, electronics, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals [7][21]. - The liquidity-sensitive mode of major assets indicates that market sentiment has reached the upper range of historical thresholds, leading to a decrease in the explanatory power of sentiment on equity asset gains, suggesting a potential decline in momentum driven by sentiment [7][39]. Group 2: Inflation and Beneficiary Sectors - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy has led to market expectations of "price recovery," which helps to change the deflationary mindset, although the upward space for inflation is constrained by demand [19]. - Historical analysis shows that during periods when PPI rises from the bottom to near zero, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, real estate, building materials, machinery, steel, electricity, and public utilities exhibit significant positive marginal impacts on overall equity markets [21][27]. - The report identifies that the structural opportunities in the consumer sector are present, while the dividend sector faces both profit and valuation pressures [7][27]. Group 3: Macro and Funding Perspectives - The macro liquidity environment is characterized by a "price soft and volume stable" pattern, with marginal recovery in base currency issuance but still relying on rapid declines in interest rates to improve the overall funding situation [46]. - Global macro liquidity is also showing marginal recovery, primarily driven by strong expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to significant capital inflows into the Hong Kong stock market [46][48]. - The report notes that the recent surge in new applications for equity funds indicates a warming market sentiment, with expectations that major funds will concentrate their investments around the end of the first quarter of 2026 [53][60]. Group 4: Style Allocation - The report indicates that the information ratio for dividend and consumer sectors continues to decline, with no reversal signals currently, while the information ratio for cyclical sectors is rapidly strengthening, suggesting a shift in focus towards growth sectors to capture momentum gains [74]. - The growth sector's net value is approaching previous highs, but there is still significant room for the information ratio to rise, indicating a potential for better performance in this area [74].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the AI computing demand, with its comprehensive layout in copper, optical, thermal, and power management solutions [5][6] - The company's communication business is projected to grow robustly, with a revenue forecast of 183.6 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 19.6% from 2022 to 2024 [5][22] - The company is well-positioned to capture growth opportunities in the AI sector, particularly in data centers, where demand for high-speed interconnects is increasing [6][11] Summary by Sections Communication Business Overview - The company has a strong technical foundation and a full-stack layout in the data center business, covering high-speed interconnects, thermal management, power management, and complete machine manufacturing [15] - The communication business revenue was 128.3 billion yuan in 2022, with a significant increase attributed to the consolidation of Huiju Technology [22] Copper Interconnect - The demand for high-speed copper cables and connectors is expected to grow, driven by increasing bandwidth requirements from platforms like NVIDIA's NVLink [25] - The company has developed advanced copper cable solutions, including 224G and 448G products, which are in mass production and pre-research stages with major clients [47][48] Optical Interconnect - The company has a complete product line for optical modules and is actively advancing LPO/CPO technologies, which are expected to drive growth in the optical interconnect market [57] - The demand for optical modules is projected to increase significantly, with the market for 800G and 1.6T modules expected to reach 166 billion and 248 billion USD by 2026 and 2027, respectively [61] Thermal Management - The company has launched a complete set of liquid cooling solutions, with products already in mass production, and is exploring advanced technologies like microchannel cooling [10][11] Power Management - The company has achieved comprehensive power management solutions for intelligent computing centers, with products including cabinet power supplies and modular power supplies entering large-scale production [17]

Core Insights - The report discusses the potential continuation of the technology sector as a market focus at the beginning of the year, highlighting a mixed performance in the A-share market during the last trading week of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a slight increase of 0.13% while other indices experienced declines [3][4] - The technology sector demonstrated strong performance throughout 2025, with an annual increase of 43.57%, significantly outperforming other indices such as the CSI 300 (17.66%) and advanced manufacturing (36.56%) [4] - Despite a slowdown in momentum during the fourth quarter, the technology sector is expected to maintain some level of continuity due to high market risk appetite, reasonable valuation levels, strong performance in the US AI sector, and expectations of global liquidity easing [4] Market Analysis - The A-share market showed a weak overall trend with increased trading volume but a decline in the number of profitable stocks, indicating a structural adjustment phase as the year-end approached [3] - The technology index led the market in performance for six out of twelve months, with specific themes like optical modules, aerospace technology, AI computing, nuclear fusion, humanoid robots, and 6G showing annual gains exceeding 80% [4] - The report suggests that the current market environment presents opportunities for strategic investments in technology, particularly in sectors with strong narratives and catalysts [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals and potential for growth, such as robotics, sports, and non-bank financials, while advising caution in crowded sectors like commercial aerospace [5] - The robotics sector is highlighted as a priority for investment due to its clear long-term narrative, low crowding, and high elasticity, making it a core focus for the upcoming spring market [5] - The sports sector is identified as having significant potential for consumer spending growth leading up to the Spring Festival [5]