Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - On September 18, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut, adjusting the federal funds rate to 4.75-5.00%, marking the first cut in four years[6] - The median forecast in the dot plot indicates two more rate cuts are expected within the year[6] - Economic projections show an upward revision of the unemployment rate and a downward revision of PCE inflation, with labor market concerns taking precedence over inflation[6] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut announcement, major U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones down 0.25%, S&P 500 down 0.29%, and Nasdaq down 0.31%[10] - The U.S. dollar index initially dropped but later recovered, closing down 0.07% at 100.94[9] - Gold prices surged to a new high of $2,625 per ounce on September 20, driven by the Fed's rate cut and geopolitical tensions[14] Group 3: Domestic Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed a smoother trading logic, benefiting from the Fed's rate cut, with the Hang Seng Index rising 5.12%[11] - The onshore and offshore RMB appreciated significantly, closing at 7.0417 and 7.0517 against the USD, respectively[12] - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield fell to 2.0450%, reflecting the impact of the Fed's unexpected rate cut on domestic policy space[11] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China maintained the 1-year LPR at 3.35% and the 5-year LPR at 3.85% on September 20, indicating a cautious approach to further rate cuts[15] - From January to August, China's general fiscal revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, totaling 14.78 trillion yuan, while general fiscal expenditure increased by 1.5%[18]

Group 1: Middle East Situation - The escalation of the Israel-Lebanon conflict has intensified, with Israel conducting airstrikes against Hezbollah targets, marking a shift from defensive to offensive operations[6] - Lebanon's economic crisis is severe, with a CPI increase of 1.97% month-on-month and 35.37% year-on-year as of July[6] - Trade between China and Lebanon saw a total import-export value of $1.55 billion from January to August, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year, with China's exports to Lebanon accounting for only 0.06% of total exports[6] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%, indicating a shift to a more accommodative monetary policy[8] - U.S. existing home sales fell to an annualized rate of 3.86 million in August, a 2.5% decrease month-on-month, marking the lowest level in nearly 10 months[10] - Retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.1% month-on-month in August, reflecting a slight recovery in consumer demand[12] Group 3: Global Economic Trends - The European Commission's new team reflects a focus on "de-risking" in defense and technology sectors, with the UK maintaining its interest rate at 5%[15] - Japan's CPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year in August, with exports growing at a slower rate of 5.6% compared to the previous 10.2%[17] - The global liquidity environment is improving, with the Chicago Fed's adjusted national financial conditions index at -0.53, indicating a more accommodative financial landscape[25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 61.60 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a performance turning point as it gradually implements its projects, particularly in the automotive electronics sector, which is anticipated to grow rapidly [3][5]. - Despite facing pressure on profits due to high R&D investments and macroeconomic factors affecting gross margins, the company is well-positioned for future growth as new products are launched and demand recovers [4][5]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections are as follows: - 2022A: 4,022 million CNY - 2023A: 4,678 million CNY (growth rate of 16.3%) - 2024E: 5,776 million CNY (growth rate of 23.5%) - 2025E: 7,290 million CNY (growth rate of 26.2%) - 2026E: 9,172 million CNY (growth rate of 25.8%) [1][6] - Net profit forecasts indicate a recovery starting in 2025: - 2022A: 235 million CNY - 2023A: -217 million CNY - 2024E: -141 million CNY - 2025E: 117 million CNY - 2026E: 334 million CNY [1][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to improve significantly by 2026, reaching 2.78 CNY [1][6]. Business Development - The company is focusing on key technology areas such as intelligent driving, body domain control, and new energy, with significant R&D investments impacting current profits [3][4]. - The automotive electronics business is expected to see rapid growth due to the successful launch of various products, including intelligent driving solutions and central computing platforms [3][4]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leader in automotive electronics, with a comprehensive product line and substantial technological accumulation, indicating a broad future growth potential as R&D investments yield results [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 28.51 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company has recently won a significant IDC project with a major internet giant, which is expected to boost its IDC business growth, particularly in the North China market [2]. - The company is a leading third-party IDC provider in China, leveraging resources from the Baowu Group to enhance its IDC operations and expand its industrial robot and AI business segments [5]. - The company has launched a fully self-controlled PLC product line, marking a significant advancement in domestic industrial control systems [2][3]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing upgrade of smart manufacturing in the industry, with a comprehensive product matrix in industrial software and hardware [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 12,916 million CNY in 2023 to 24,023 million CNY in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25% [1]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 2,554 million CNY in 2023 to 4,664 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of around 28% [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 0.89 CNY in 2023 to 1.62 CNY in 2026 [1]. - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) of around 21% over the forecast period [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its IDC business, with a focus on green energy and sustainable practices, aiming for 100% renewable energy usage by 2030 [2]. - The company is enhancing its capabilities in AI computing services to support the development of large models and AI applications [2]. - The company is also focusing on the industrial robot market, having recently increased its stake in a robotics firm to enter the high-end heavy-duty robot market [3].

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：专题测算：上市银行的个人经营贷：高风险 占比低 证券研究报告 2024 年 9 月 23 日 [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbl师lee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 电话： [b_Suy 今日预览 Email： 今日重点>> 【银行】戴志锋：专题测算：上市银行的个人经营贷：高风险占比低 【政策】杨畅：增值税降幅收窄 研究分享>> 【非银】蒋峤：券商风控指标规定点评：较意见稿修订幅度不大，适度优化 资本空间 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 【固收】肖雨：美联储开启宽松周期——全球大类资产跟踪 20240921 【科技】孙行臻：工信部明确 2027 年改造目标，国产工业软件迎发展良机 晨报内容回顾： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 晨会聚焦 今日重点 ►【银行】戴志锋：专题测算：上市银行的个人经营贷：高风险占比低 戴志锋｜中泰银行业首席 S0740517030004 核心要点：1、概况：过去四年个人经营贷规模翻倍至 24 万亿；样本银行不良率下降 58bp 至 1.26%，但自 2023 下半年以来有抬升趋势，国 ...

、 增值税降幅收窄 ——当前经济与政策思考 证券研究报告/宏观策略专题报告 2024 年 09 月 22 日 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | [Table_Title] 分析师：杨畅 | [ 投资要点 Table_Summary ] | | 执业证书编号： S0740519090004 | ◼ 8 月财政数据：增值税累计同比降幅继续收窄，央地支出相对平稳，土地出让收入延续 | | 电话： 021-20315708 | 回落 | | Email ： yangchang@zts.com.cn | 住户与企业同步少增；存款同比多增 | | | ◼ 8 ...

美联储超预期降息，大宗板块集体走高 行业-市场走势对比 行业评级：增持（维持） 投资要点 ◼ 【本周关键词】：美联储超预期降息 50BP、黄金 ETF 持仓量继续上升 ◼ 投资建议：趋势的延续，维持行业"增持"评级 1）贵金属：本周，美联储超预期降息 50BP，海外黄金 ETF 持仓走高，金价持续刷 新历史新高，中长期看，美国远端国债实际收益率处于 2%左右历史高位，高利率下 美国经济压力逐步显现，随着全球信用格局重塑，贵金属价格将保持长期上行趋势。 2）大宗金属：本周，海外降息落地，流动性宽松叠加旺季带动，主要金属延续去库 趋势，整体价格有所提振。在长期供需格局重塑背景下，大宗金属价格进一步下行的 空间有限，行业有望维持长期高景气，尤其是铜铝更是如此。 ◼ 行情回顾：大宗金属整体回升：1）周内，LME 铜、铝、铅、锌、锡、镍本周涨跌幅 为 2.5%、0.5%、0.0%、-1.1%、1.2%、3.5%，SHFE 铜、铝、铅、锌、锡、镍的涨 跌幅为 2.5%、1.6%、-0.7%、1.4%、1.7%、1.0%；2）COMEX 黄金收于 2646.20 美元/盎司，环比上涨 1.36%，SHFE 黄金收于 590 ...

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】化工孙颖：2024Q2 收入盈利同比略增，资本开支已连续 3 个季度负增 证券研究报告 2024 年 9 月 22 日 [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbll师ee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email： 【固收】肖雨：转债后市怎么看？ 【固收】肖雨：曲线形态如何影响信用组合收益？ 【医药】祝嘉琦：P-CAB：开启抑酸新时代，打造消化创新生态 【化工】孙颖：2024Q2 收入盈利同比略增，资本开支已连续 3 个季度负 增——基础化工行业 2024 年半年报总结 【建材】孙颖：顺周期探底修复，关注药玻等成长性兑现 研究分享>> 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 【宏观】张德礼：财政收入与支出增速双回落——2024 年 8 月财政数据 解读 【固收】肖雨：银行大幅增持，基金减持政金债——8 月中债登、上清所 托管数据点评 【计算机】闻学臣：历史低位，静待基本面拐点 晨报内容回顾： 电话： 今日重点>> [b_Suy 今日预览 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 晨会聚焦 今日重点 ►【固收】肖雨：转债后市怎么看？ 肖雨｜ 中泰固收 ...

中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 1 | 证券研究报告 | 顺周期探底修复，关注药玻等成长性兑现 ——2024年建材行业中报总结 2024 . 9 . 2 2 分析师：孙颖 博士 建材&化工首席 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 Email：sunying@zts.com.cn 分析师 刘铭政 执业证书编号：S0740524070003 Email：liumz01@zts.com.cn 分析师：聂磊 建材&化工联席首席 执业证书编号：S0740521120003 Email：nielei@zts.com.cn 投资观点 24H1地产端进一步承压，季度拆分来看建材各细分板块出现一些结构分化：随着信用减值压力逐步消退以及渠道结构优化等调整， 24Q2品牌建材板块盈利水平季度环比略有改善；水泥板块随着行业错峰力度加大，复价后板块盈利季度环比也有所修复；而对应 竣工端的浮法玻璃随着需求渐进下滑，供需矛盾开始暴露，板块盈利季度环比开始趋弱。玻纤板块量增价跌盈利承压，但随着复价 的推进以及出口景气回升，24Q2板块盈利降幅有所收窄，季度环比改善明显。药玻板块格局优异，在产品 ...

[评Ta级ble：_M增ai持n] （维持） 分析师：孙行臻 执业证书编号：S0740524030002 工信部再发重要设备更新指引文件，明确 2027 年改造目标。2024 年 9 月 20 日， 工信部发布了《工业重点行业领域设备更新和技术改造指南》，明确了工业软件和 工业网络设备的更新目标，旨在增强产业链供应链的韧性和安全性。政策目标为：1） 工业软件：到 2027 年将更新约 200 万套工业软件和 80 万台套工业操作系统，覆盖 石油、化工、航空、船舶等关键行业，提升供应链韧性。2）工业网络设备：将实现 80%规模以上制造企业网络化改造，部署超 100 万台边缘设备，并实施超 2 万个 "5G+工业互联网"项目。 Email：sunxz@zts.com.cn [基Ta本ble状_P况rofit] 上市公司数 332 行业总市值(亿元) 26914.97 行业流通市值(亿元) 14856.90 国家政策频出扶持工业软件更新，多地积极响应，目标逐级细化。2024 年以来，国 家多部委密集出台一系列政策，推动工业软件和设备的更新换代。工信部等 7 部委 发布的方案明确了到 2027 年的目标，包括工业设备 ...