Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Wantushi AI Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Wantushi AI model evaluates indices based on their potential upward probability and selects ETFs with favorable characteristics for investment[6] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assigns a score to indices based on their upward probability. Indices with scores above 0.8 are selected[6] 2. For each selected index, the corresponding ETFs are identified[6] 3. Among these ETFs, those with a 30-day average daily trading volume exceeding 30 million RMB are retained[6] 4. Finally, the ETF with the lowest IOPV premium rate for each index is chosen[6] - **Model Evaluation**: The model systematically filters ETFs based on liquidity and valuation metrics, ensuring a focus on high-quality investment options[6] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Wantushi AI Model - **Index Code: 932000 (CSI)** - Upward Probability: 93.52% - Selected ETF: 159552 (CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399006 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 93.37% - Selected ETF: 159977 (Tianhong ChiNext ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399673 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 92.49% - Selected ETF: 159682 (ChiNext 50 ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399850 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 90.15% - Selected ETF: 159350 (Shenzhen 50 ETF by Fuguo)[7] - **Index Code: 000852 (SH)** - Upward Probability: 85.86% - Selected ETF: 159680 (1000 Enhanced ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399303 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 85.82% - Selected ETF: 159628 (Guozheng 2000 ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399293 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 85.03% - Selected ETF: 159814 (ChiNext Large Cap ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399330 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 84.81% - Selected ETF: 159901 (Shenzhen 100 ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 399296 (SZ)** - Upward Probability: 84.46% - Selected ETF: 159967 (ChiNext Growth ETF)[7] - **Index Code: 000905 (SH)** - Upward Probability: 83.23% - Selected ETF: 510580 (CSI 500 ETF by E Fund)[7] - **Index Code: 000906 (SH)** - Upward Probability: 81.05% - Selected ETF: 515800 (800 ETF)[7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [2] Core Insights - The average duration gap in the insurance industry is approximately -7 years, with a trend of widening expected post-2024, particularly in the life insurance sector [5][21] - Large insurance companies generally maintain a duration gap around -5 years, while small to medium-sized insurers exhibit a widening gap, indicating a disparity in asset-liability management [5][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of managing duration gaps to mitigate interest rate risks and reinvestment risks, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [5][21] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction: Duration Gap in Insurance Asset-Liability Matching - Duration gap refers to the difference between asset duration and liability duration, categorized into various types [9] - The report highlights the increasing duration gap due to the issuance of long-term savings products by life insurers [9][10] 2. Calculation of Duration Gap and Industry Data Statistics - The average duration gap for life insurance companies from 2020 to 2022 was -6.67 years, -6.57 years, and -6.28 years, respectively [21] - The report identifies a trend where over 65% of companies have seen their duration gaps widen, with many experiencing an increase of over 2 years [23][26] 3. Significance and Measures for Duration Gap Management - Effective duration gap management is crucial for balancing asset-liability management in insurance companies [5] - Suggested measures to narrow the duration gap include increasing allocations to long-term bonds, developing long-term equity investments, and adjusting product structures to enhance liability duration [5][21] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like New China Life, Ping An, AIA, China Life, China Pacific, and PICC, which are well-positioned to benefit from the dual dividend attributes of insurance stocks [5][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 78% year-on-year in the first three quarters, driven by industry recovery and strong alpha performance [5] - The company is focusing on new product lines, which are expected to contribute positively to future performance [11] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 905 million, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 40 million, a year-on-year decrease of 71% [7] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 499 million, a year-on-year increase of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 22 million, down 75% year-on-year but up 17% quarter-on-quarter [6][7] - The company recorded a significant inventory impairment of 58 million in H1 2025, impacting profitability [8] Product Development - The company is expanding its NOR Flash product line into high-capacity products, which are expected to benefit from the growing demand in edge AI applications [10] - The MCU segment continues to gain market share, with the company leveraging advanced embedded Flash technology to reduce costs and improve competitiveness [10] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1,804 million in 2024, 2,194 million in 2025, and 2,742 million in 2026, with growth rates of 60% and 22% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [5][12] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 208 million, with a PE ratio of 50.4, indicating potential for earnings growth as new products are launched [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Changshu Bank [1] Core Views - Changshu Bank's revenue and profit continue to show double-digit growth, with a 5.5 percentage point increase in the dividend payout ratio [6][21] - The bank's operating income for 2025 is projected to be 12,465 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.0% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 3,280 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.5% [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Changshu Bank's revenue increased by 10.1% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 13.6% [6] - Net interest income grew by 0.8% year-on-year, and non-interest income surged by 57.2% [6] - The annualized net interest margin decreased by 10 basis points to 2.45% [6] Asset and Liability Management - The bank's credit demand remains weak, with new loans in Q2 2025 totaling 1.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.86 billion yuan year-on-year [6] - Total deposits increased by 1.7 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2.49 billion yuan [6] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.76%, with a slight increase in the overdue rate to 1.62% [20] - The provision coverage ratio stands at 489.32%, indicating strong asset quality management [20] Dividend Policy - The interim dividend for 2025 is set at 0.15 yuan per share, totaling 497 million yuan, which is 25.27% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [6][21] Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 6.56, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.85 [1] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 14.31% in 2025 [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][5][36]. Core Insights - The company is a leading manufacturer of electronic wire harnesses, with products widely used in new energy vehicles and the low-altitude economy, indicating strong growth potential [5][6][29]. - Revenue and profit are expected to grow steadily in 2024, driven by new product launches and strengthened partnerships with domestic brands [5][13]. - The company has successfully expanded into the European and North American markets, with overseas revenue exceeding 50% for the first time in 2024 [5][6][24]. - The low-altitude economy, particularly through partnerships in the eVTOL sector, presents significant future growth opportunities [5][29][36]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was established in 1998 and specializes in the R&D, production, and sales of various wire harness components and injection-molded integrated parts, covering over 300 series and 3,000 models [5][9][19]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue of 2.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 400 million yuan for 2024, representing year-on-year growth of 13.69% and 14.28%, respectively [5][13][24]. - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is expected to reach 3.06 billion yuan, 3.61 billion yuan, and 4.15 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 510 million yuan, 610 million yuan, and 720 million yuan [3][38]. Market Trends - The automotive wire harness market is projected to grow significantly, with the average value of wire harnesses in new energy vehicles potentially increasing to 5,000-6,000 yuan per vehicle [5][24][22]. - The global eVTOL market is expected to grow from 1.2 billion USD in 2023 to 23.4 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 52% [5][35][36]. Competitive Position - The company is positioned favorably against competitors, with a slightly higher valuation compared to industry averages, reflecting its growth potential in the eVTOL sector [5][38][42].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holdings" [2][6] Core Insights - The brain-computer interface (BCI) industry is entering a phase of accelerated growth due to strong policy support, with key technological breakthroughs expected by 2027 and a robust industrial ecosystem anticipated by 2030 [5][6] - The report emphasizes the development of both hardware and software components, with non-invasive devices likely to achieve commercialization first, while invasive devices will provide high precision for medical applications [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry comprises 494 listed companies with a total market value of 73,522.83 billion and a circulating market value of 66,271.42 billion [2] Policy Support - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued implementation opinions to promote innovation in the BCI industry, aiming to establish advanced technology, industrial, and standard systems by 2027 [5] Technological Development - Hardware advancements include the development of various electrode types and integrated signal processing systems, while software improvements focus on enhancing signal decoding and device control accuracy [5] - The report highlights the importance of developing auxiliary devices and surgical robots to improve precision in BCI applications [5] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with rapid advancements in non-invasive product development, such as Chengyitong, Xiangyu Medical, and Weisi Medical, among others [5]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Floating Frequency Fourier Transform Model **Construction Idea**: The model aims to overcome the limitations of traditional Fourier analysis by introducing floating frequencies, which adapt to real-world market dynamics such as macroeconomic changes and capital structure shifts[64][65][66] **Construction Process**: 1. **Filtering**: Use Butterworth filter to remove high-frequency noise and retain trend data. The filter is applied to the logarithmic weekly closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, with cutoff frequency set at 0.1 and sampling frequency at 1.0[65][67] 2. **Frequency and Amplitude Selection**: Perform discrete fast Fourier transform on filtered data to extract amplitude and phase information. Key frequencies are identified based on amplitude peaks, e.g., 94.1 weeks, 80.5 weeks, and 62.6 weeks[75][78] 3. **Waveform Reconstruction**: Combine selected frequencies and amplitudes to reconstruct the market trend curve. The reconstructed curve includes direct current components and sinusoidal terms with specific frequencies and initial phases[68][78] **Evaluation**: The floating frequency approach improves prediction accuracy by preserving real-world frequency characteristics and reducing extrapolation errors[64][65][66] - **Model Name**: Dual Optimization Floating Frequency Fourier Transform Model **Construction Idea**: Enhance the floating frequency Fourier transform by optimizing both amplitude and frequency to better fit market trends and improve prediction accuracy[85][86][87] **Construction Process**: 1. **Inner Optimization**: Use non-linear least squares to optimize amplitude values (sin and cos terms) for given initial frequency values. Frequencies are combined with the top two amplitudes from Fourier transform results to form a fitting curve[87][88] 2. **Outer Optimization**: Apply particle swarm optimization to determine the best floating frequencies (e.g., 39.02 weeks, 19.17 weeks, and 8.13 weeks). Training data spans 10 years (2014-2024), and the model is validated using 2024-2025 data[87][88][100] **Evaluation**: The dual optimization method significantly improves trend accuracy compared to simple floating frequency models, especially in capturing major market movements[85][86][100] Model Backtesting Results - **Floating Frequency Fourier Transform Model**: - Key frequencies: 94.1 weeks, 80.5 weeks, 62.6 weeks[78][80][81] - Observed discrepancies in certain periods, e.g., 2014-2015 and 2017-2019, indicating limitations in amplitude selection methods[81] - **Dual Optimization Floating Frequency Fourier Transform Model**: - Optimized frequencies: 39.02 weeks, 19.17 weeks, 8.13 weeks[100] - Improved accuracy in major trend predictions, e.g., capturing relative highs in September 2021[100] - Future predictions: Long-term upward trend from 2024 to 2027, with key oscillations in August 2025 and August 2026[102][103] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Harmonic Sine Wave Factor **Construction Idea**: Simulate price movements using harmonic sine waves to replicate Elliott Wave patterns[39][42] **Construction Process**: - Formula: $y(n) = 4*sin(0.00125n)+2*sin(0.01n)+1*sin(0.04n)+0.5*sin(0.16n)$ - Variables: $n$ represents time, $y(n)$ represents price index - Frequency structure: Base frequency 0.00125, harmonic frequencies follow $2^k$ relationship (k=-3,0,2,4) - Amplitude decay: Coefficients follow $2^{-m}$ rule (m=-1,0,1,2)[39][42] **Evaluation**: Successfully replicates 5-3 wave patterns described in Elliott Wave theory, providing a mathematical basis for wave analysis[39][42] - **Factor Name**: Pletcher Fibonacci Wave Factor **Construction Idea**: Introduce quasi-periodic characteristics by incorporating non-harmonic frequencies into wave simulation[50][51] **Construction Process**: - Formula: $y(n) = 4*sin(0.00125n)+sin(0.01n)+1/2*sin(0.04n)+1/4*sin(0.17n)+1/8*sin(0.72n)+1/16*sin(0.305n)$ - Frequency relationships: Some frequencies maintain harmonic relationships (e.g., 0.00125, 0.01, 0.04), while others exhibit non-harmonic relationships (e.g., 0.17, 0.72, 0.305)[50][51] **Evaluation**: Captures floating frequency characteristics and quasi-periodic behavior, aligning with real-world market dynamics[50][51] Factor Backtesting Results - **Harmonic Sine Wave Factor**: - Successfully replicates Elliott Wave patterns, including 5-3 wave structures[39][42] - **Pletcher Fibonacci Wave Factor**: - Demonstrates quasi-periodic behavior, reflecting floating frequency characteristics in market data[50][51]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the electronic sector, with the top five industries in the North Exchange showing notable growth rates, particularly electronics at 20.78% [3][4] - The report indicates a thriving environment for new stock listings and approvals, with a total of 16 companies successfully passing the review process this year, and a record number of inquiries and registrations [5][4] - The North Exchange's new stock, Dingjia Precision, experienced a remarkable first-day surge of 479.12%, reflecting high investor enthusiasm and participation [4][5] Market Overview - As of August 1, 2025, the North Exchange had 269 constituent stocks with an average market capitalization of 3.113 billion [3] - The North Exchange 50 Index showed a slight increase of 0.07%, closing at 1419.61 points, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, ChiNext Index, and Sci-Tech 50 Index had varied performances [3] - Daily average trading volume increased by 28.75% to 27.929 billion, with a turnover rate of 6.44%, up by 1.23 percentage points from the previous period [3] Industry Performance - The top five performing industries during the reporting period were electronics, pharmaceuticals, machinery, textiles, and construction, with respective growth rates of 20.78%, 11.01%, 6.06%, 4.99%, and 4.80% [3] - The report emphasizes the ongoing high-quality expansion of the North Exchange, with a focus on specialized and innovative small giant enterprises [5] New Listings and Approvals - In the reporting period, one new stock was issued, and 65 companies were inquired by the North Exchange, with five companies registered and two companies approved for listing [4] - The report notes that the first-day performance of new stocks has consistently exceeded 150% this year, indicating a strong market for new listings [4][5] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as data centers, robotics, semiconductors, consumer goods, and military information technology for potential investment opportunities [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is a key strategic player in the renewable energy sector under the Shankao Group, focusing on the green transformation of its business model, particularly in kitchen waste treatment and heating [2][3]. - The company has returned to a growth trajectory since 2021, with significant revenue increases following its strategic pivot towards environmental and green energy sectors [4][19]. - The demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is expected to grow significantly, driven by global carbon reduction initiatives, positioning the company favorably within this expanding market [8][58]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, originally established as Sichuan Meiya Silk (Group) Co., Ltd., has undergone multiple ownership changes and strategic pivots, ultimately focusing on renewable energy and environmental services [3][12]. - Following a major restructuring in 2020, the company shifted its focus to kitchen waste resource utilization, becoming the only listed company in China primarily engaged in this sector [3][19]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 827 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 138.33% [4][19]. - In 2024, despite a reduction in trading volume, the company achieved a 47.3% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders [21]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenues of 434 million yuan, reflecting a 4.21% year-on-year growth, with net profit reaching 28.27 million yuan, up 222.23% [21][30]. Market Dynamics - Used cooking oil (UCO) is a critical raw material for SAF, with China accounting for over 60% of global UCO supply, highlighting its strategic importance in the SAF production chain [5][45]. - The global demand for SAF is projected to increase significantly, with various countries implementing policies to boost its usage in aviation fuels [8][59]. Operational Capacity - The company has established a robust operational capacity in kitchen waste treatment, with a daily processing capacity of 4,380 tons as of the end of 2024, with plans to expand to 8,000-10,000 tons [9][68]. - The company employs a heavy asset operation model, maintaining a high debt ratio of over 70%, which is typical for the industry [9][71]. Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 104 million yuan, 179 million yuan, and 299 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 31.2, 18.1, and 10.8 [1][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3][32]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth logic of the energy drink industry from both macro and micro perspectives, highlighting the importance of channel strategies and operational expenses in driving market share and profitability [5][6]. - The analysis of Monster's historical performance indicates that significant increases in operational expenses often correlate with substantial profit growth in subsequent years, driven by channel transformations [5][9]. - The report suggests that Eastroc Beverage's investment in freezer displays is expected to enhance market share and sales efficiency in the long term, despite short-term cost increases [6][28]. Summary by Sections Review of Monster - Monster experienced four instances of over 50% year-on-year growth in operational expenses since 2000, with subsequent profit growth typically exceeding revenue growth [5][9]. - In 2006, Monster's market share in the U.S. energy drink market reached 23.4%, with a significant increase in sales driven by strategic partnerships and product offerings [10][17]. - By 2008, Monster surpassed Red Bull in market share, achieving a 29.2% share in convenience stores and gas stations, leading to a 93.21% increase in net profit the following year [15][20]. Eastroc Beverage - In the first half of 2025, Eastroc Beverage's sales expenses increased by 37.27% to 1.682 billion yuan, primarily due to a 61.20% rise in channel promotion expenses from freezer investments [28][29]. - The report anticipates that the freezer investments will enhance product visibility and sales efficiency, potentially increasing market share by 20-30% [31][32]. - The long-term outlook for Eastroc is positive, with expectations of improved profitability and market share through strategic channel enhancements [6][28].