【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：国有大型银行资本补充的 历史复盘及推演 证券研究报告/晨会聚焦 2024 年 10 月 17 日 分析师：戴志锋 今日预览 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 【银行】戴志锋：专题 | 国有大型银行资本补充的历史复盘及推演 晨报内容回顾 1、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴 志锋：前瞻｜上市银行 2024 三季报 展望与预测：息差企稳，利润增速边 际回升》2024-10-16 2、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴 志锋：银行角度看 9 月社融：政府债 继续支撑，未来取决于政策实施效果》 2024-10-15 3、《【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收肖 雨：滞涨之后，转债会补涨吗？》 2024-10-13 今日重点>> 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 今日重点 【银行】戴志锋：专题 | 国有大型银行资本补充的历史复盘及推演 核心要点：1、六大行主要有三轮集中股权融资历史以及陆续进行的定向增发，其中定增价格 均不低于 1 倍 PB。2、静态测算若六家大行核心一级资本充足率均提升 1 个点，则共需补充资本 1.0 ...

1 中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 | AI 驱动消费电子迭代升级，重视果链 2 0 2 4 . 1 0 . 1 7 ● ● 冯胜 中泰研究所所长助理&先进产业研究首席 执业证书编号：S0740519050004 ● ● ● ● ● ● 设备及材料布局机遇 2 核心观点 p 创新驱动消费电子周期复苏，AI 接力行业成长。消费电子周期主要由创新驱动，在当前传统PC、手机均进入存量市场的背景下，AI技 术不断成熟，相关应用逐步落地，各大海内外厂商开始推出AI手机、AI PC引领换机潮流。根据Wind，2024Q2全球智能手机出货量为 2.85亿部，同比+8%；全球 PC 市场2024Q1-Q2全球PC出货量分别为5980万台、6490万台，同比增速已经回正。消费电子行业有望迎 来新一轮复苏周期。 p AI驱动硬件升级，苹果新品有望开启换新浪潮。根据《AI手机白皮书》，新一代 AI手机在屏幕、影像设备的升级有望带来硬件升级和 成本提升，并带来平均销售价格（ASP）的提升。苹果公司最新发布的iPhone 16 将搭载Apple Intelligenc ...

证券研究报告 2024年10月17日 【中泰电子】AI全视角-科技大厂财报专题丨ASML 24Q3点评：需求放缓拖累订单，AI创新推动成长 分析师：王芳 S0740521120002，杨旭 S0740521120001，游凡 S0740522120002 1 目 录 一 、Q3收入超指引，订单显著不及预期 1.1 业绩表现：24Q3营收创历史新高，业绩同环比增长超预期 1.2 业绩指引：24Q4营收环增21%，下修25年营收指引上限 1.3 新增订单：复苏放缓&EUV需求推迟等因素拖累表现 1.4 营收结构：预计25年来自中国区营收占比下滑至20% 二、24Q3业绩交流会要点 三、全球唯一EUV供应商，仍受益AI强劲需求 四、投资建议&风险提示 2 1.1 业绩表现：24Q3营收创历史新高，业绩同环比增长超预期 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|-------|----------|--------------|----------|------------| | \n单位；亿欧元 | 实际 | \n YoY | 24Q3 \n ...

重点公司基本状况 评级： 增持（维持） 简称 股价 EPS PE 评级 （元） 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 江苏银行 8.79 1.60 1.69 1.69 1.87 2.00 5.49 5.20 5.20 4.70 4.40 买入 渝农商行 5.72 0.89 0.94 1.01 1.06 1.11 6.43 6.09 5.65 5.38 5.15 买入 沪农商行 8.09 1.14 1.26 1.32 1.38 1.44 7.10 6.42 5.04 4.82 4.62 增持 招商银行 38.50 5.26 5.63 5.75 5.81 5.87 7.32 6.84 5.80 5.74 5.68 增持 农业银行 4.92 0.69 0.72 0.75 0.74 0.75 7.13 6.83 6.56 6.65 6.56 增持 备注：最新股价对应 2024/10/15 收盘价 分析师：戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 分析师：邓美君 执业证书编号：S07 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - Anta Sports demonstrates resilience during the downturn, with expectations for a bottoming out in sales during the National Day holiday period, which exceeded expectations [2] - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates across its various brands, with a notable performance from the main brand and a healthy inventory level [2][3] - The report anticipates that e-commerce sales will outperform offline sales, continuing a trend of over 20% growth [2] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 53,651 million - 2023A: 62,356 million (growth rate: 16%) - 2024E: 70,710 million (growth rate: 13%) - 2025E: 79,308 million (growth rate: 12%) - 2026E: 88,319 million (growth rate: 11%) [2][3] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 7,590 million - 2023A: 10,236 million (growth rate: 35%) - 2024E: 13,530 million (growth rate: 32%) - 2025E: 14,166 million (growth rate: 5%) - 2026E: 15,974 million (growth rate: 13%) [2][3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 2.68 - 2023A: 3.62 - 2024E: 4.78 - 2025E: 5.01 - 2026E: 5.65 [2][3] - **Cash Flow**: - 2023A: 6.94 - 2024E: 3.75 - 2025E: 4.67 - 2026E: 5.91 [2][3] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 24% - 2024E: 23% - 2025E: 20% - 2026E: 18% [2][3] Market Position and Strategy - Anta Sports is focusing on multi-brand operations to cover segmented users and enhance domestic product capabilities, capitalizing on emerging sports trends [2] - The company is expected to continue improving its channel reform and customer targeting strategies, particularly through the Super Anta and Champion stores [2][3] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining stable discount levels and improving online sales channels [2][3]

【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】银行戴志锋：前瞻｜上市银行 2024 三季报展望与预测： 息差企稳，利润增速边际回升 证券研究报告 2024 年 10 月 16 日 [Table_Industry] [T[分Taa析bbl师lee__：TMi戴tlea志]in锋] 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 电话： [b_Suy 今日预览 Email： 今日重点>> 【银行】戴志锋：前瞻｜上市银行 2024 三季报展望与预测：息差企稳， 利润增速边际回升 研究分享>> 【计算机】苏仪：财政政策密集发布，建议关注财税 IT、网安、信创等 领域——近期政策点评 欢迎关注中泰研究所订阅号 晨报内容回顾： 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 晨会聚焦 今日重点 【银行】戴志锋：前瞻｜上市银行 2024 三季报展望与预测：息差企稳，利润增速边际回升 核心观点：1、预计前三季度上市银行营收-2.4%（VS 1H24 -2.2%），利润+0.6%（VS 1H24 +0.4%）.2、 息差：禁止手工补息在 3 季度形成支撑，预计息差环比回升 0.9bp。3、规模：实体需求弱，信贷增 速延续下行趋势，预计上市银行前三季度信贷增速为 8.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [1][14]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on its core magnetic materials business, with profitability expected to stabilize after a challenging period due to declining rare earth prices and intensified industry competition [1]. - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue at 3.81 billion yuan, down 17.7% year-on-year, and net profit at 189 million yuan, down 48.5% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights that the company is optimizing its operations and scaling back on its electric vehicle motor drive system business, which has been consistently losing money [1]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s revenue is projected to decrease from 5.87 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.31 billion yuan in 2024, before recovering to 6.40 billion yuan in 2025 and 7.78 billion yuan in 2026 [1][11]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit is expected to decline from 448 million yuan in 2023 to 325 million yuan in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 379 million yuan in 2025 and 454 million yuan in 2026 [1][11]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to drop from 0.55 yuan in 2023 to 0.40 yuan in 2024, before increasing to 0.46 yuan in 2025 and 0.55 yuan in 2026 [1][11]. - **Cash Flow**: The company is expected to experience negative cash flow from operating activities in 2024, with a forecast of -173 million yuan, followed by a positive cash flow of 891 million yuan in 2025 [10][11]. Market and Industry Context - The report notes that the average price of domestic praseodymium-neodymium oxide has decreased significantly, impacting the company's product pricing and sales [1]. - Despite the challenges, the company is expanding its production capacity and market reach, particularly in the high-performance neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet materials sector, with a notable increase in sales in the home appliance market [1].

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