| 总股本(百万股) | 85.95 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 60.15 | | 市价(元) | 105.77 | | 市值(百万元) | 9,090.69 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 6,361.99 | 光芯片国产化有望加快，CW 硅光光源持续投入 半导体 源杰科技（688498.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 15 日 | 评级： 增持（下调） | | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：陈宁玉 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 283 | 144 | 252 | 449 | 646 | | | 增长率 | yoy% | 22% | -49% | 74% | 78% | 44% | | 执业证书编号：S0740517020004 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 100 | 19 | -6 | 105 | 185 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Shandong Fiberglass, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance in the next 6 to 12 months [1][3]. Core Views - The company turned a profit in Q4 2024, with expectations for performance to stabilize and recover due to price recovery in the fiberglass market [1][3]. - The fiberglass industry is experiencing a bottoming out phase, with gradual price recovery expected as supply-demand dynamics improve [3]. - The company is actively working on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, which are anticipated to enhance profitability in the fiberglass segment [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2,006 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9% [1][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -99 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline compared to the previous year [1][3]. - For Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 520 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.9% [3]. Future Projections - The company expects a net profit of 44 million yuan in 2025, a substantial recovery from the previous year's losses [1][3]. - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 2,393 million yuan, with a growth rate of 19% year-on-year [1][3]. - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit, reaching 169 million yuan by 2027 [1][3]. Industry Dynamics - The fiberglass market is showing signs of recovery, with price increases observed in early 2025 [3]. - The company is enhancing its production capabilities, including the digital upgrade of its production lines, which is expected to improve efficiency and reduce costs [3]. - The demand for fiberglass products in sectors such as home appliances, wind power, and automotive is stabilizing, contributing to a more favorable market environment [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the AI packaging sector, with significant revenue growth projected in the coming years [4][13] - The company has achieved record-high revenue in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [6][10] - The company is heavily investing in advanced packaging technologies, which is expected to drive future growth despite current profit declines due to high R&D expenses [8][12] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 238.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and a net profit of 6.8 billion yuan, up 300% [6][10] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 68 billion yuan, marking a record high for a single quarter, but net profit decreased by 46% year-on-year [6][10] - The company's gross margin improved to 14.8%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 2.8%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 22,269 million yuan, 2024A: 23,882 million yuan, 2025E: 26,857 million yuan, 2026E: 29,356 million yuan, and 2027E: 32,542 million yuan [4] - Net profit forecasts are: 2023A: 169 million yuan, 2024A: 678 million yuan, 2025E: 1,048 million yuan, 2026E: 1,436 million yuan, and 2027E: 1,605 million yuan [4] R&D and Technological Advancements - The company is actively developing advanced packaging technologies, with R&D expenses reaching 8.5% of revenue, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [8][12] - The company has established deep partnerships with leading firms like AMD, enhancing its revenue potential through advanced packaging solutions [9][10] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is the largest packaging supplier for AMD, handling over 80% of its orders, which provides a strong revenue base [10] - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 26.5 billion yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 10.96% compared to 2024, which is above the industry growth rate [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [25]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.267 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.75% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 953 million yuan, down 33.49% year-on-year [4][6]. - The company is facing intense market competition, with a decline in demand due to weakened real estate and infrastructure investments, leading to a challenging operating environment [5][6]. - The company is actively pursuing international expansion, with overseas revenue reaching 358 million yuan, a growth of 26.65% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in its international strategy [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecast: - 2023A: Revenue of 6.378 billion yuan, net profit of 1.432 billion yuan - 2024A: Revenue of 6.267 billion yuan, net profit of 953 million yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 6.583 billion yuan, net profit of 1.025 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 6.929 billion yuan, net profit of 1.105 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue of 7.311 billion yuan, net profit of 1.220 billion yuan [3][6]. - Profitability Metrics: - Gross margin for 2024 is reported at 41.72%, a decrease of 2.59 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. - The company aims for a revenue target of 6.580 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 5% increase year-on-year [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its product categories and enhancing its marketing strategies to adapt to market changes and competition [5][6]. - The company has implemented significant cash dividends, distributing 1.00 yuan per share in the first half of 2024 and planning to distribute 5.00 yuan per share for the full year, totaling 943 million yuan, which reflects its strong cash flow and low debt ratio [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [15]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit significantly from the cyclical upturn in the sewing industry, with a projected revenue growth of 15% in 2024 and a substantial increase in net profit by 51% [4][9]. - The company has successfully implemented a "focus on explosive products" strategy, enhancing its market share and brand competitiveness through technological advancements and strategic partnerships [6][10]. - The global sewing equipment market is experiencing a recovery, with notable growth in both domestic and international demand, particularly in emerging markets [8][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 60.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.11%, and a net profit of 8.12 billion yuan, up 50.86% [4]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 13.87 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.21% year-on-year growth, with net profit reaching 1.93 billion yuan, a 53.03% increase [4]. Growth Drivers - The company’s industrial sewing machine sales reached 2.1211 million units in 2024, marking an 8.10% increase, with revenue from this segment at 5.264 billion yuan, up 14.69% [10]. - The company has signed contracts with 10 world-class benchmark clients, further promoting its high-end market expansion [6]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 32.76%, an increase of 4.34 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 13.57%, up 3.37 percentage points [6]. - The company’s R&D expenses were 488 million yuan in 2024, a 23.67% increase, reflecting its commitment to innovation and product development [7]. Market Outlook - The global sewing machinery export value reached 3.424 billion USD in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.39%, indicating a recovery to near 2022 levels [8]. - The domestic market for industrial sewing equipment is estimated to have grown by 27% in 2024, with a total sales volume of approximately 2.35 million units [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [8]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high in quarterly revenue, with a 49.7% year-on-year increase in 2024, reaching 1.86 billion yuan, and a net profit of 226 million yuan, up 38% year-on-year [5][6]. - The growth in the suspension spring business is notable, with a 60.2% increase in revenue from suspension system components, contributing significantly to overall performance [5]. - The company is advancing its global strategy, with investments in production bases in Germany, Mexico, and Morocco, aiming to enhance market share and operational capacity [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 1.24 billion yuan in 2023, 1.86 billion yuan in 2024 (40% growth), 2.31 billion yuan in 2025 (50% growth), and continuing to grow to 3.37 billion yuan by 2027 [3][5]. - The net profit is forecasted to increase from 164 million yuan in 2023 to 438 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 46% in 2023 and 38% in 2024 [3][5]. - The company's gross margin for Q4 2024 was reported at 27.12%, showing a slight year-on-year decline but an increase from the previous quarter, indicating improved operational efficiency [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests adjusting the net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 284 million yuan and 356 million yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 438 million yuan, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [5][6]. - The expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the upcoming years are projected to decrease from 30.9 in 2023 to 11.6 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [3][5].

油电转型低点已过，看好出口增量及新能源扭亏贡献利润弹性 乘用车 长安汽车（000625.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 15 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：何俊艺 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 151,298 | 159,733 | 191,680 | 243,705 | 292,446 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | 25% | 6% | 20% | 27% | 20% | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020004 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 11,327 | 7,321 | 9,135 | 10,684 | 12,875 | | Email：hejy02@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | 45% | -35% | 25% | 17% | 21% | | | | 每股收益（元） | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The REITs index decreased by 1.18% this week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.87% and the CSI 500 Index dropped by 4.52% [6][19]. - The report highlights a correlation between REITs and various bond indices, with REITs showing a correlation of -0.08 with 10-year government bonds and 0.27 with the Shanghai Composite Index [19]. - Recent market activity includes announcements of dividends from several REITs and the initiation of inquiries for new REITs, indicating ongoing market engagement [12][18]. Industry Overview - The industry consists of 64 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1871.44 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 858.19 billion yuan [2]. - The trading volume for REITs increased this week, with a total trading amount of 29.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.6% increase [9]. Market Performance - This week, 40 REITs experienced price increases, while 24 saw declines, with the largest gain being 6.45% for the Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT and the largest drop being 5.06% for the Hongtu Yantian Port REIT [23]. - The report notes that the REITs market is characterized by a strong correlation with the corresponding stock sectors, particularly in the logistics and consumption sectors [28][30].

证券研究报告 信用业务周报 美关税政策对全球资产有何影响？ 2025年4月14日 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 • 一、如何看待美关税政策对全球资产影响？ 3 • 4月2日美国总统特朗普提出"对等关税"政策，并表态将大幅提升对华商品征税水平。本轮事件对于全 球金融市场影响较大，上周美债、黄金等资产也遭受了一定程度的短期大幅抛售。 • 周初黄金下跌或与流动性造成的抛压相关。上周五美股跌幅较大，部分机构可能被要求补足保证金而 抛售黄金用于补足流动性。但是，特朗普政策冲击下，宏观因素支持黄金上涨：第一，强关税带来的 强衰退预期使得实际利率下行，黄金保值需求上升。第二，宏观不确定性上升，支持黄金避险属性。 第三，"美国优先"主义或使得美元信用下滑，而黄金作为超越主权的全球资产，将受益于美元信用收 缩。故流动性危机告一段落后，金价持续补涨并刷新新高。美债方面，近期经济数据公布，且伴随特 朗普政策持续发酵，美债收益率上行。一方面，强关税预期带动美国通胀预期上行，驱动 ...

| 预计关税影响有限，期待阿迪放量 | | --- | ——华利集团 24 快报点评 纺织制造 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 Email：zouwj@zts.com.cn 基本状况 | 总股本(百万股) | 1,167.00 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,166.99 | | 市价(元) | 56.14 | | 市值(百万元) | 65,515.38 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 65,514.95 | 1、《收入符合预期，阿迪放量可期》 2025-03-14 放量》2024-10-30 2024-08-23 华利集团（300979.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 14 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E ...