华利集团（300979.SZ） 纺织制造 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 30 日 业绩靓丽符合预期，期待新客户放量 ——华利集团 24Q3 点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing strong growth driven by the expansion of overseas channels and the orderly advancement of new visualization products. The company reported a revenue of 2.012 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 451 million yuan, up 16.70% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is focusing on enhancing its sales management and expanding its product offerings in the visualization segment, which is expected to contribute to future revenue growth. The company is also actively exploring upgrades and improvements to its disposable endoscope products [1][2] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 1,980 million yuan - 2023A: 2,411 million yuan - 2024E: 2,939 million yuan - 2025E: 3,603 million yuan - 2026E: 4,450 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 2% (2022), 22% (2023), 22% (2024), 23% (2025), 23% (2026) [1] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 331 million yuan - 2023A: 486 million yuan - 2024E: 598 million yuan - 2025E: 744 million yuan - 2026E: 919 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 2% (2022), 47% (2023), 23% (2024), 24% (2025), 23% (2026) [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 1.76 yuan - 2023A: 2.59 yuan - 2024E: 3.18 yuan - 2025E: 3.96 yuan - 2026E: 4.89 yuan [1] - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E ratios: 41.0 (2022), 27.9 (2023), 22.7 (2024), 18.2 (2025), 14.8 (2026) - P/B ratios: 4.2 (2022), 3.8 (2023), 3.3 (2024), 2.8 (2025), 2.4 (2026) [1] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of October 29, 2024, was 72.20 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 13.56 billion yuan [1] - The company has maintained a stable gross margin of 67.64%, with a year-on-year increase of 23.06% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a Q3 gross margin improvement, continuing its focus on high-end product development and edge AI integration [1] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 55.5 billion, 65.6 billion, and 75.6 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 19, 16, and 14 times [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 51.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, and a net profit of 3.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 16.69 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%, and a net profit of 1.05 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 41.0% [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 21.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5 percentage points, but improved by 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Market and Product Development - The company maintained its smartphone shipment volume at over 25 million units in Q3 2024, with a global market share of approximately 8% [1] - The company is focusing on high-end product development, having launched the second generation of its flagship foldable phone series, PHANTOM V Fold2 and V Flip2, featuring new TECNO AI capabilities [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that new product launches and holiday promotions will drive sales growth in Q4 2024, with declining raw material prices expected to further enhance gross margins [1]

Core Insights - The report indicates a weakening momentum in the real estate sector, with mixed signals in various high-frequency data points observed from October 21 to October 28, 2024 [2]. Production Analysis - The national blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.46 percentage points week-on-week, but decreased by 3.97 percentage points year-on-year. In Tangshan, the operating rate fell by 0.98 percentage points week-on-week and 16.60 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The operating rate for automotive steel tires showed mixed results, with a week-on-week increase of 1.78 percentage points for full steel tires but a decrease of 0.08 percentage points for semi-steel tires [2]. - The overall operating rate for chemical fiber production increased, with PX operating rate rising by 2.10 percentage points week-on-week [2]. Demand Analysis - The sales area of commercial housing showed a slight week-on-week increase of 0.06% as of October 28, with first and second-tier cities rising by 9.28% and 6.38% respectively, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 20.45% [2]. - Land transaction area decreased by 12.47% week-on-week, with first-tier cities increasing by 154.73% while second and third-tier cities declined by 6.45% and 18.23% respectively [2]. - The average land premium rate across 100 major cities was 2.66%, down by 4.62 percentage points from the previous week [2]. - Passenger car wholesale daily average sales increased by 14.50% week-on-week to 92,400 units, but showed a year-on-year decline of 7.70% [2]. Price Analysis - Food prices exhibited mixed trends, with wholesale prices for lamb, eggs, and chicken rising by 0.52%, 0.66%, and 1.17% respectively, while pork and beef prices fell by 0.89% and 0.03% [2]. - Commodity prices generally declined, with Brent crude oil futures down by 3.86% week-on-week and WTI crude oil futures down by 4.51% [2]. - The industrial product price index showed mixed results, with the Nanhua Industrial Product Index rising by 1.05% week-on-week [2]. - The exchange rate of the RMB depreciated slightly, with the USD/RMB rate increasing by 0.22% to 7.13 [2].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the semiconductor industry, particularly highlighting AMD's strong performance in the data center segment [1]. Core Insights - AMD's Q3 2024 performance exceeded market expectations, driven by significant growth in the data center business, which saw a year-over-year increase of 122% [4][17]. - The company is experiencing robust demand for its AI chips, with projected annual revenue exceeding $5 billion, up from a previous estimate of $4.5 billion [5][29]. - AMD's new product launches, including the MI325X GPU and the fifth-generation EPYC processors, are expected to enhance its competitive position in the market [44][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Q3 2024 Financial Performance - AMD reported Q3 2024 revenue of $6.819 billion, a year-over-year increase of 18% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17%, surpassing market expectations of $6.71 billion [2][8]. - The data center business generated $3.549 billion, marking a 122% year-over-year growth and a 25% quarter-over-quarter increase [17][29]. - Net profit for the quarter was $771 million, reflecting a 158% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 50% [2][4]. 2. Business Segment Performance - **Data Center Business**: Revenue reached $3.549 billion, accounting for 52% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 122% [17][29]. - **Client Business**: Revenue was $1.881 billion, up 29% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for both new and legacy processors [31][34]. - **Gaming Business**: Revenue fell to $462 million, down 69% year-over-year, primarily due to weak demand for semi-custom products [34][37]. - **Embedded Business**: Revenue was $927 million, down 25% year-over-year but up 8% quarter-over-quarter, indicating a recovery in terminal market demand [37][39]. 3. Business Developments - AMD is accelerating the deployment of its MI300X AI chips, with significant adoption by major cloud service providers like Microsoft and Meta [5][29]. - The company has acquired ZT Systems, enhancing its capabilities in AI infrastructure [5][29]. - Upcoming product launches include the MI325X GPU and the fifth-generation EPYC processors, which are expected to outperform competitors in terms of performance and efficiency [44][48].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved record high performance in Q3, with semiconductor equipment production ramping up [1] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic semiconductor equipment provider, benefiting significantly from the trend of localization [4] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 20.353 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.51%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.463 billion yuan, up 54.72% year-on-year [3] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 14.688 billion yuan - 2023A: 22.079 billion yuan - 2024E: 30.095 billion yuan - 2025E: 39.640 billion yuan - 2026E: 49.436 billion yuan [1] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 2.353 billion yuan - 2023A: 3.899 billion yuan - 2024E: 5.895 billion yuan - 2025E: 7.788 billion yuan - 2026E: 8.837 billion yuan [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 4.41 yuan - 2023A: 7.31 yuan - 2024E: 11.06 yuan - 2025E: 14.61 yuan - 2026E: 16.58 yuan [1] - **Gross Margin and Net Margin**: - Q3 2024 gross margin was 42.26%, up 5.89 percentage points year-on-year, while net margin was 20.95%, up 3.42 percentage points year-on-year [3] Business Segment Performance - The semiconductor equipment segment saw a significant revenue increase, contributing to overall performance growth [3] - The company's electronic process equipment revenue for H1 2024 was 11.396 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.07%, accounting for 92.39% of total revenue [3] - The company successfully developed several high-end equipment with independent intellectual property rights, enhancing its product matrix and expanding its process coverage [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company captured over 8% of the domestic wafer fab equipment capital expenditure, indicating a strong position in the market [4] - The company continues to deepen customer needs and expand innovation boundaries, which is expected to drive future growth [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chengdu Bank is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - Chengdu Bank's Q3 2024 report indicates a stabilization and recovery in net interest margin, leading to a slight increase in net profit growth to 10.8%. The bank's asset quality remains excellent, with a low non-performing loan ratio of 0.66% [2][6][13]. Summary by Sections Q3 Report Overview - The net interest margin has stabilized and increased, contributing to a positive turnaround in net interest income growth, which rose by 1.8% quarter-on-quarter. The cumulative year-on-year revenue growth decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 3.2% due to a decline in wealth management scale [2][6][15]. Net Interest Income - In Q3, the net interest margin increased by 2 basis points to 1.59%, primarily due to a decrease in the cost of liabilities. The annualized net interest income growth turned positive, reflecting a 5.75 percentage point improvement from the previous quarter [9][10]. Asset and Liability Growth and Structure - Chengdu Bank's loan issuance in Q3 was robust, with a total loan issuance of 14.6 billion yuan, maintaining a similar level to the previous year. Personal loans showed a notable increase, with a quarter-on-quarter rise of 2.25 billion yuan [9][10]. Asset Quality - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.66%, stable compared to the previous quarter. The provision coverage ratio increased to 497.36%, indicating a solid buffer against potential loan losses [13][14]. Other Financial Metrics - The bank's core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improved, reaching 8.40% in Q3 2024, reflecting a positive trend in capital management [15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.80X for 2024E, 0.70X for 2025E, and 0.62X for 2026E, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 4.60X for 2024E, 4.25X for 2025E, and 3.87X for 2026E. The bank's operations are expected to remain stable, with a strong focus on retail and infrastructure [16][19].

报告摘要 生产：主要开工率涨跌互现。高炉开工率涨跌不一：截至上周五，全国高炉开工率周 环比上升 0.46 个百分点，月初至今同比下降 3.97 个百分点，唐山高炉开工率周环比 下降 0.98 个百分点，月初至今同比下降 16.60 个百分点。汽车轮胎开工率涨跌互现： 截至上周四，汽车全钢胎开工率周环比上升 1.78 个百分点，月初至今同比下降 4.51 个百分点，半钢胎开工率周环比下降 0.08 个百分点，月初至今同比下降 0.94 个百分 点。化纤生产开工率整体上行：截至上周四，PX 开工率周环比上升 2.10 个百分点， PTA 开工率、涤纶长丝（江浙地区）开工率周环比维持不变。 需求：房地销售涨跌互现。商品房销售面积整体上行：截至 10 月 28 日，30 大中城 市商品房成交面积周环比上升 0.06%。其中一、二线城市均有所上升，周环比分别上 升 9.28%、6.38%，三线城市下降 20.45%。土地成交面积整体下行：截至上周日， 100 大中城市成交土地面积 1216.25 万平方米，周环比下降 12.47%，其中一线城市 土地成交面积上升 154.73%，二、三线城市土地成交面积均有所下降，周环 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huabei Mining (600985.SH) [1] Core Views - The company has achieved basic production capacity for anhydrous ethanol, but Q3 coal price decline has pressured performance [1] - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in production and sales, with a focus on the long-term growth potential of the company due to the increasing value-added in the industrial chain [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 56.786 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.96%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.139 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.17% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 19.470 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.45%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.42% [1] - The report projects operating revenues for 2024-2026 to be 69.048 billion, 71.524 billion, and 73.337 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 5.010 billion, 5.393 billion, and 5.679 billion yuan [1] Production and Sales - In Q3 2024, the company’s coal production was 4.36 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.30%, while coal sales reached 4.36 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.50% [1] - The average coal price in Q3 was 1,115 yuan per ton, with a gross profit of 558 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease [1] Valuation Metrics - The report provides a projected P/E ratio of 8.3 for 2024, 7.7 for 2025, and 7.3 for 2026, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [1] - The projected P/B ratio is 1.0 for 2024, and 0.9 for both 2025 and 2026, suggesting potential undervaluation [1] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is projected to be 11.418 billion yuan in 2024, down from 13.031 billion yuan in 2023 [2] - The report indicates a decrease in net profit margins, with projections of 6.9% for 2024 and 7.2% for 2025 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2][4] Core Views - The company experienced revenue pressure in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 6.39%, resulting in a total revenue of 946 million yuan. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 258 million yuan, down 16.80% year-on-year [1][2] - The acquisition of Danish company SGM is expected to accelerate the company's expansion into overseas markets, enhancing its overall market competitiveness and potentially increasing revenue and performance [2][3] - The company is focusing on increasing its R&D investment, with R&D expenses rising by 151.80% year-on-year, which is expected to improve product quality and market share in the long term [1][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 1,305 million yuan, with a projected revenue of 1,275 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2%. The net profit for 2023 was 366 million yuan, with an expected net profit of 367 million yuan for 2024 [1][3] - The company's gross profit margin has been improving, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin proprietary brands [1][2] Growth Potential - The company is expected to see a revenue growth rate of 19% in 2025 and 15% in 2026, with net profit projections of 463 million yuan and 536 million yuan respectively [1][3] - The acquisition of SGM is anticipated to enhance the company's product portfolio and brand matrix, meeting diverse market demands and expanding its market presence [2][3] Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic stage lighting equipment market, with expectations for continued market share growth due to increasing demand in the global performance market [2][3]