Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Jiangsu Guoxin [4][6]. Core Views - Jiangsu Guoxin operates in dual sectors of energy and finance, benefiting from synergies between the two. The company has transitioned from shipbuilding to energy and trust services, with significant profit contributions from its financial segment [1][3]. - The company has a strong growth trajectory in thermal power generation, with substantial installed capacity and ongoing projects expected to drive future earnings [2][36]. - The financial segment, primarily through Jiangsu Trust, has shown robust performance, contributing significantly to overall profitability [3][76]. Summary by Sections 1. Energy and Finance Dual Business Model - Jiangsu Guoxin has transformed its core business from shipbuilding to energy and finance, with energy assets accounting for 64.31% and financial assets for 34.34% of total assets as of 2023 [1][18]. - The company reported a remarkable 3014% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2023, driven by falling coal prices and operational efficiencies [1][24]. 2. High Growth in Thermal Power Generation - As of 1H24, Jiangsu Guoxin has 15.45 GW of operational thermal power capacity and 5 GW under construction, positioning it as a leader in the province [2][36]. - The company’s thermal power plants are strategically located in Jiangsu, a major electricity consumption province, ensuring high utilization rates [46][51]. 3. Financial Segment as a Profit Anchor - Jiangsu Trust, the main financial arm, has maintained a leading position in Jiangsu, with total assets of 4310.33 billion yuan and a net profit of 25.43 billion yuan in 2023, representing 78.24% of the company's total profit [3][76]. - Investment income from Jiangsu Bank and Lianan Life Insurance is a core revenue source, contributing 20.26 billion yuan to Jiangsu Trust's profits in 2023 [3][76]. 4. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts revenues of 351.85 billion yuan, 413.28 billion yuan, and 469.82 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits projected at 29.90 billion yuan, 35.23 billion yuan, and 40.58 billion yuan [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Shanghai Laishi [1][3]. Core Views - The blood products industry is highly concentrated, benefiting leading companies. The top six companies account for 70%-80% of domestic plasma collection, indicating a favorable environment for leading firms [1][2]. - The company has a strong position in the industry with 44 plasma collection stations and a collection volume of 1,500 tons in 2023, ranking it among the top players [1][2]. - Haier Group's acquisition of a 20% stake in the company is expected to enhance its long-term development through synergies with Haier's health sector [1][2]. - The extension of the exclusive agency agreement with Grifols for ten years provides strong certainty for the company's agency business [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Shanghai Laishi is a well-established blood products company, with a history dating back to 1988. It has expanded through mergers and acquisitions and currently operates five production bases [1][15]. - The company produces a wide range of blood products, including 12 varieties, and is the second-largest in the industry [1][15]. 2. Industry Dynamics - The blood products market in China is growing, with a market size exceeding 500 billion yuan. The market is expected to reach approximately 600 billion yuan by 2024 [1][34]. - The industry has high barriers to entry, with no new blood product manufacturers approved since 2001, leading to a concentrated market [1][34]. 3. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 7.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%, while net profit was 1.779 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.4% [2][22]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 0.35 yuan, with a net profit growth rate of 30% [2][22]. 4. Product and Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue is primarily derived from its own products and the agency business for Grifols' albumin products. In 2023, agency albumin revenue was 3.5 billion yuan, a 28% increase [1][26]. - The gross margin for self-produced products is higher than that of agency products, with self-produced albumin having a gross margin of 46.2% in 2024H1 [1][56]. 5. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in plasma collection and profitability, supported by Haier Group's strategic involvement and the extension of agency agreements [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the power equipment and new energy industry, highlighting strong performance in the wind power sector and ongoing opportunities in energy storage projects [2][3]. Core Insights - The electric vehicle market remains robust, with a significant increase in sales driven by trade-in policies, while lithium mining capacity is entering a clearing cycle [3][15]. - The photovoltaic sector is seeing price stabilization and recovery, supported by new regulations from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that tighten production capacity requirements [20][21]. - The wind power sector is experiencing a price rebound for onshore wind turbines, with a notable procurement project from State Power Investment Corporation [31][32]. - The energy storage segment is witnessing increased competition, with major players like Sungrow Power securing significant overseas contracts [37][38]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - The electric vehicle market's retail sales reached 2.261 million units in October, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% and a month-on-month increase of 7.2% [15]. - New energy vehicle sales were 1.196 million units, up 56.7% year-on-year and 6.4% month-on-month, with a penetration rate rising to 53.0% [15][16]. 2. New Energy Generation Sector 2.1 Photovoltaic Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released new manufacturing standards that impose stricter energy consumption requirements for new and expanded production capacities [20][21]. - The minimum component cost increased to 0.690 yuan/W in November, indicating a clear policy direction to stabilize and uplift prices [22]. 2.2 Wind Power Sector - The State Power Investment Corporation's procurement project for 7.2GW of onshore wind turbines indicates a recovery in turbine prices, with average bids around 1550 yuan/kW [31][32]. 3. Energy Storage Sector - Sungrow Power signed a 4.4GWh energy storage agreement in the UK, marking a significant expansion in overseas markets [37][38]. - The global energy storage cell shipments reached 202.3GWh in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 42.8% [39]. 4. Power Equipment and Industrial Control Sector - In October, the total investment in power grid projects was 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.12% but a month-on-month decrease of 20.25% [47]. - The Southern Power Grid's second batch of framework bidding projects totaled 6.825 billion yuan [48]. 5. Hydrogen Energy Sector - The government continues to support hydrogen vehicle initiatives, with new projects approved and significant orders for electrolysis systems secured by Sungrow Hydrogen [63][65]. - The fiscal budget for hydrogen vehicle demonstration applications is approximately 1.625 billion yuan, indicating strong government backing for the sector [63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Insights - The demand for live pigs is recovering, leading to a strong upward trend in pig prices. As of November 24, the average pig price reached 16.49 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.43 yuan/kg week-on-week [1][11] - The white feather broiler market is expected to improve due to strong restocking activity and rising chick prices, with the chick price reaching 4.47 yuan/bird, up 7.71% week-on-week [2][41] - The seed industry is experiencing significant advancements, with a national seed conference highlighting the successful implementation of seed revitalization actions, achieving a supply guarantee capacity of 75% [3][53] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The overall pig price has shown a strong upward trend, with a notable increase in market sentiment as temperatures drop and consumption rises. The average weight of pigs traded is 126.73 kg, up 0.27 kg from the previous week [1][28] - The utilization rate of fattening pens across 17 provinces averaged 44.24%, a decrease of 1.76 percentage points from the previous ten days [1][11] - The report anticipates a rebound in pig prices during the year-end peak season due to limited supply growth and cautious restocking [1][35] 2. White Feather Broilers - The restocking activity is strong, with chick prices at a high level, indicating a positive supply-demand outlook. The average price for white feather broilers is 7.71 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.92% [2][41] - The report notes that the impact of flight restrictions and avian influenza has led to a significant decline in the breeding stock, which is expected to affect the market positively in the coming months [2][42] 3. Seed Industry - The national seed conference showcased the achievements of the seed revitalization initiative, with significant breakthroughs in breeding innovation and a solid supply guarantee capacity [3][53] - The report emphasizes the ongoing push for the commercialization of genetically modified varieties, which is expected to expand market opportunities and improve industry concentration [3][54]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The launch of the Chinese version of the o1 reasoning model by DeepSeek and the overseas breakthroughs in quantum computing are significant developments in the computer industry [2][26] - DeepSeek's new reasoning model, DeepSeek-R1-Lite, showcases performance comparable to o1-preview in complex reasoning tasks, with a focus on long reasoning times leading to higher accuracy [17][18] - Major advancements in quantum computing include Microsoft's introduction of a commercial quantum computer with 24 logical qubits and Google's development of an AI-driven quantum error decoder, AlphaQubit, which reduces errors by 30% compared to traditional methods [26][32] Summary by Sections 1. Launch of Chinese Version o1 and DeepSeek's New Model - DeepSeek released the DeepSeek-R1-Lite model, which utilizes reinforcement learning and can handle reasoning chains of up to tens of thousands of words, achieving results similar to o1-preview in various complex tasks [17][18] - The model is still in iterative development, with a planned open-source release and API deployment capabilities [25] 2. Overseas Quantum Computing Breakthroughs 2.1 Record-Breaking Logical Qubits - Microsoft and Atom Computing launched a quantum computer with 24 logical qubits, breaking previous records and planning to deliver a full quantum computing suite by 2025 [26][28] 2.2 AI-Driven Quantum Error Correction - Google DeepMind's AlphaQubit significantly improves quantum error correction, achieving a 30% reduction in errors compared to traditional methods [32] 2.3 NVIDIA's Quantum Collaborations - NVIDIA announced four major collaborations in quantum computing, including partnerships with Google Quantum AI and IonQ, aimed at enhancing quantum processing capabilities [34][36] 3. AI Data Updates - During the period from November 15 to November 21, 2024, ChatGPT's daily downloads fluctuated but surpassed 1.6 million, while domestic applications like Wenxin Yiyan and Kimi showed stable performance [4][39]

Investment Rating - The steel industry maintains a "Follow the Market" rating, indicating a stable outlook relative to the broader market [3]. Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with supply-demand fundamentals showing stability but lacking improvement, leading to a bearish outlook [2][14]. - The profitability of steel mills remains resilient despite a slight decline in operating rates, supported by stable margins in rebar and hot-rolled steel [16]. - The upcoming winter storage season is expected to influence raw material inventory levels and market dynamics [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - The steel market is showing strong fluctuations, with the black commodity prices experiencing volatility due to external factors like the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations [14]. - Daily average pig iron production slightly decreased to 2.358 million tons, while steel production increased by 0.9% week-on-week but decreased by 4.47% year-on-year [14][15]. - Steel consumption showed a week-on-week increase of 0.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.68%, indicating some resilience in construction materials [14]. 2. Weekly Review 2.1 Industry Performance - The steel industry outperformed the broader market, with a decline of 1.13% compared to a 2.60% drop in the CSI 300 index [19]. - The current PE (TTM) for the steel industry is 24.40, and the PB (LF) is 0.94, indicating a mid-range valuation among industries [19]. 2.2 Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the steel sector include Guangda Special Materials (+22.59%) and Wujin Stainless Steel (+9.64%), while Shagang Group saw a significant decline of -18.59% [19]. 3. Current Events 3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - The Chinese government has initiated a 6 trillion yuan local government debt limit, with some provinces already starting to issue bonds [50]. - Economic indicators suggest a positive trend, with retail sales and industrial output showing growth [51]. - The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are expected to maintain cautious monetary policies, impacting global economic conditions [52][53]. 4. Steel and Product Production - The operating rates for blast furnaces and electric furnaces have decreased, with the average daily pig iron output slightly down [15]. - The production of major steel products reached 8.693 million tons, with a notable increase in wire rods and hot-rolled products [14]. 5. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 25.59 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% week-on-week, while port inventories remain high at 153.19 million tons [15]. 6. Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The operating rate of coking coal mines is at 90.93%, with inventories increasing, indicating a stable supply chain [15]. 7. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand - Coking coal and coke inventories have risen, reflecting adjustments in production and market demand [15]. 8. Market Outlook - The steel industry is expected to navigate a phase of strong expectations versus weak realities in the fourth quarter, with a focus on policy support for demand expansion [17].

Market Insights - The market continues to adjust, with the overall A-share market down by 2.08%. The trading volume increased from 1.796 trillion yuan on Monday to 1.832 trillion yuan on Friday, indicating a narrowing of previous trading volumes but not the main reason for the adjustment [2][14][15] - Major indices have experienced two consecutive weeks of decline, with the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices suffering heavier losses compared to the CSI Dividend index. The technology and financial real estate sectors faced significant setbacks, while cyclical and advanced manufacturing sectors saw smaller declines [2][14][15] - Geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and North Korea's military threats, have suppressed market risk appetite. The market is currently in a policy and earnings vacuum, making it susceptible to external disturbances [2][14][15] Market Observation - The stock-bond yield spread has risen to 1.21%, positioned between +1 and +2 standard deviations, with a decrease in the valuation dispersion coefficient by 8.6% [3][22] - Market sentiment has contracted, with the five-dimensional market sentiment index decreasing by 35.9% to 32.9. The industry rotation intensity has increased, indicating a preference for small-cap stocks, particularly in lithium battery electrolyte and state-owned enterprises [3][23] - Trading volume has decreased, with textile and apparel, banking, and basic chemicals showing a higher proportion of bullish stocks. There are potential alpha opportunities within the basic chemicals, public utilities, and automotive sectors [3][26] Industry Highlights - The 2024 World Internet Conference was held in Wuzhen, focusing on artificial intelligence, which is a key driver of new productive forces. Investment opportunities are suggested across the AI industry chain, from upstream chip manufacturing to downstream applications [4][45] - The Shanghai Municipal Transportation Commission issued a plan to enhance low-altitude flight service management, which is expected to benefit the low-altitude economy. Investment opportunities are highlighted in low-altitude aircraft manufacturing and related infrastructure [4][46] - New regulations in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector aim to optimize supply-side dynamics, encouraging technological innovation and quality improvement while addressing overcapacity challenges [4][47] Industry Configuration - The report suggests focusing on mergers and acquisitions, debt restructuring, sustained demand growth, and turnaround opportunities in the current market vacuum. Structural opportunities remain due to significant trading volumes [4][50] - Increased policy support for mergers and acquisitions is anticipated, promoting industry integration and market capitalization management [4][50] - The third-quarter earnings report period has concluded, leading to a performance vacuum. Attention is drawn to sectors like non-bank financials, electronics, and machinery that may experience demand growth and potential recovery in the real estate and power equipment sectors [4][50]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current economic policies between China and the US are highly uncertain, suggesting that this may not be the optimal window for recovery or liquidity trading [3][4][5] - Long-term trends suggest an expansion in the service sector while traditional manufacturing may contract, with initiatives like "self-control" and the Belt and Road Initiative expected to accelerate [3][4] - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on central state-owned enterprises, the Belt and Road Initiative, O2O (Online to Offline), semiconductor equipment, and military industry, while mid-term attention is directed towards AI applications [3][4] Group 2 - In October, industrial enterprises exhibited a simultaneous decline in both volume and price, with industrial added value year-on-year at 5.3%, down 0.1 percentage points, and PPI year-on-year at -2.9%, also down 0.1 percentage points [10][11] - The mining sector's prices have significantly declined due to overseas commodity price influences, while the upstream raw material processing industry shows a mixed performance with reduced volume but increased prices in non-ferrous smelting and pharmaceutical manufacturing [10][11] - The report highlights that the overall PPI drag from downstream consumer prices is relatively light, with a notable decline in the growth rate of public utility industrial added value [10][11] Group 3 - The market review indicates a divergence in market performance, with defensive strategies currently favored [12][21] - The broad market indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.91%, and the ChiNext, CSI 300, and SSE 50 showing deeper losses [14][15] - From an industry perspective, cyclical sectors experienced relatively minor declines, while technology, consumption, financial real estate, and medical healthcare sectors faced deeper losses [21][22] Group 4 - The report notes that foreign capital futures positions are showing divergence, with net short positions in IC and IM converging while IF and IH remain stable [30][34] - The upcoming week is expected to focus on the US PCE price index and China's PMI, which are critical indicators for market sentiment [35][36]

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 行 业 研 究 日 行 业 定 期 研 究 有色金属行业周报（11.18-11.24） 有色金属 2024 年 11 月 24 日 强于大市(维持评级) 地缘局势再度紧张，周内金价明显走强 投资要点： ➢ 贵金属：地缘局势再度紧张，周内金价明显走强。特朗普赢得美 国大选，市场担心特朗普提议的关税和移民可能会重新引发通胀，周 内随地缘局势再度紧张，俄罗斯发射洲际弹道导弹，朝鲜军队提升至 战备状态，避险情绪提振周内金价大涨。从经济层面来看，美国11月 费城联储制造业指数-5.5，低于预期的8，前值10.3。短期来看，特朗 普交易仍未完全消退，市场对未来经济滞涨担忧仍在，预计贵金属价 格震荡为主；中长期角度来看，全球主要经济体货币政策方向明确， 东欧及朝鲜半岛等地缘冲突仍将凸显贵金属避险属性，贵金属中长期 配置价值不改。个股：黄金建议关注中金黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄 金、赤峰黄金，低估弹性关注株冶集团和玉龙股份，其他关注银泰黄 金、湖南黄金及招金矿业；白银建议关注兴业银锡、银泰黄金、盛达 资源。 ➢ 工业金属：宏观扰动加剧波动，供需紧缺支撑氧化铝价格 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Insights - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 3663.52 points, down 0.17% week-on-week. Among six sub-industries, the semiconductor materials index fell by 3.08%, while the organic silicon materials index rose by 1.07% [1][11] - The global foldable smartphone market is expected to grow by 22% year-on-year in 2024, significantly outpacing the overall smartphone market growth of 5.8%. This growth is driven by improvements in design, durability, and functionality, despite high average prices [2][36] - Shanghai Pulit has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Guangzhou Lianmao and Shanghai Lunai New Materials to develop and mass-produce LCP film products for applications in electronic communications, AI servers, and new energy vehicles [2][33] Summary by Sections Overall Market Review - The Wind New Materials Index and various sub-indices experienced fluctuations, with notable declines in semiconductor and display device materials indices, while organic silicon and lithium battery indices showed slight increases [1][11] Key Company Weekly Review - Top gainers included Aok Shares (30.8%), Pulit (22.44%), and Silicon Treasure (17.96%), while top losers included Blue Sky Technology (-9.16%) and Shandong Heda (-8.65%) [28][30] Recent Industry Hotspots - Pulit signed a cooperation agreement for LCP film production [33] - Chemical giants Solvay and SABIC announced capacity expansions for polyphenylsulfone and ULTEM™ resin, respectively, to meet growing demand in various sectors [34] - Jiurich New Materials has commenced trial production of a new photolithography resin project with an annual capacity of 4500 tons [33]