华福证券 行业研 国防军工 军工本周观点：准备反攻 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 本周，国防军工指数下跌 2.78% ，同期沪深 300 指数下跌 2.6%，相对超 额-0.18pct，接连上周继续呈现回调状态，但整体走向趋于相对平稳，我们 仍旧维持上周观点，军工板块投资逻辑将从主题热度转为基本面驱动阶段， 后续静待行业需求传导落地。 细分主题领域，本周中国航空运输协会通航业务部、无人机工作委员会主 任孙卫国在论坛上透露，中央空管委即将在合肥、杭州、深圳、苏州、成 都、重庆六个城市开展 eVTOL 试点，我们认为，试点城市的确立或会加速 带动相关项目落地，看好后续低空经济细分板块表现。 资金层面，本周融资买入额相较上周有所降低，表明短期杠杆类资金对军 工行业偏好热度略有下降；被动资金也呈现小幅净流出情况，但考虑到军 工行业 2024Q4-2025 的强需求恢复预期，后续不排除重现融资买入额上升 及被动资金净流入趋势的可能。 估值层面，截至 11 月 22 日，申万军工指数五年维度看，当前市盈率 TTM （剔除负值）59.9 倍，分位数 77.56%，尽管现估值分位数处于十四五时期 以来偏高水平，但考虑到三季报披 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" for the next 6-12 months, indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% [20]. Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is experiencing strong sales driven by policy incentives, with a notable increase in retail and wholesale figures for passenger vehicles in November [2][3]. - The report emphasizes a short-term focus on automotive parts companies with robotics layouts and a long-term outlook on complete vehicle manufacturers [2][3]. - The report suggests that the market sentiment peaked post-Guangzhou Auto Show but remains optimistic due to strong sales data, indicating limited adjustment space [2][3]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The automotive index fell by 2.2% this week, ranking 20th out of 31 sectors [2]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.106 million units from November 1-17, a year-on-year increase of 30% [2]. - Wholesale figures for passenger vehicles were 1.271 million units, up 37% year-on-year [2]. Industry Changes - Over 2 million applications for vehicle scrappage and replacement subsidies have been submitted as of November 18 [2]. - Tesla's Optimus robot is projected to be priced between $20,000 and $30,000, with an annual production target exceeding 1 million units [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, Seres, Li Auto, and BYD for their strong fundamentals and potential for significant trading opportunities [3][4]. - For automotive parts, focus on companies with robotics initiatives, as the market for autonomous driving is expected to expand significantly by 2025 [3][11]. Strategy and Focus - The report advises prioritizing leading vehicle manufacturers and automotive parts companies involved in robotics [4]. - The anticipated growth in the autonomous driving sector and the introduction of Tesla's robots are seen as catalysts for investment opportunities [3][10].

电子 2024 年 11 月 24 日 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 分析师： 陈海进(S0210524060003) chj30590@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 徐巡(S0210524060004) xx30511@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 谢文嘉(S0210124040078) xwj30510@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 李雅文(S0210124040076) lyw30508@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、Rokid 发布 AR 眼镜，华为 Mate 系列将于下周 上市——消费电子系列跟踪——2024.11.23 2、维谛展望 MW 级 GPU 机柜，打开互联、散热 技术想象空间-海外科技周跟踪——2024.11.23 3、ChatGPT周访问量突破9 亿，"精度感知"Scaling Law 再引关注-算力周跟踪——2024.11.20 华福证券 电子 重申自主可控，关注国产替代新动态-半导体周跟 踪 投资要点： 四大指数涨跌互现。（1）全行业指数：本周（1118-1122）申万半导 体指数/恒生科技指数继续下行，分别-0.34%/-2.2%，费 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [5]. Core Insights - The cancellation of ordinary residential standards in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is expected to reduce transaction costs in the second-hand housing market, leading to a recovery in sales [1][2]. - The current market recovery is anticipated to progress through phases of alleviated liquidity pressure, continued supply contraction, stabilization of housing prices, and a resurgence in sales and construction activities [2]. Sales Review (11.17-11.23) - A total of 22,000 new homes were sold across 34 monitored cities, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6%. Cumulatively, 807,000 homes have been sold in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 26.4% [3][13]. - Sales in first-tier cities reached 7,166 units, up 2.5% from the previous week, while second-tier cities saw sales of 12,569 units, an increase of 18.7%. In contrast, third-tier cities experienced a decline of 33.2%, with sales of 1,882 units [3][14]. Land Supply (11.10-11.16) - The planned construction area for residential land across 100 cities was 2,257 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 34,908 million square meters in 2024, down 33.1% year-on-year. The supply-demand ratio stands at 1.59 [34][35]. - The average land listing price across 100 cities was 3,444 yuan per square meter, with a recent four-week average of 4,673 yuan per square meter, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 11.3% but a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [37][38]. Land Transactions (11.10-11.16) - The total planned construction area for residential land transactions was 1,124 million square meters, with a cumulative total of 21,935 million square meters in 2024, down 23.9% year-on-year [51][54]. - The average transaction price for residential land across 100 cities was 6,309 yuan per square meter, showing a slight decrease of 0.4% week-on-week but a significant year-on-year increase of 53.7% [54][55].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" relative to the market, maintaining this rating for the next year [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates that while there are short-term pressures on volume and price in the liquor sector, the long-term outlook remains positive, with potential for valuation recovery if fiscal policies exceed expectations [12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting individual stocks with strong growth potential within the beverage sector, particularly in high-end products and innovative categories [17][19]. Summary by Category Liquor - Short-term volume and price pressures are expected, with overall demand remaining subdued. The report anticipates that Q4 and the beginning of the new year will continue to face challenges, but a turning point may be on the horizon due to collective pressure release in Q3 [10][12]. - Recommended stocks include Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, with a focus on maintaining core product prices [12]. Beer - The beer sector is projected to see stable sales in 2024, with growth driven by high-end product strategies. Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer are highlighted as key recommendations [16][15]. Soft Drinks - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in functional beverages, such as Dongpeng Beverage, and those with positive fundamentals like Xiangpiaopiao [19][17]. Ready-to-Drink Alcohol - The ready-to-drink alcohol sector is expected to grow steadily, with Baijiu Holdings recommended as a leading player due to its strong market position and upcoming product launches [21]. Dairy Products - The report recommends Yili Group, emphasizing its focus on profit margins and product structure optimization [23][22]. Snacks - Companies like Three Squirrels and Jin Zai Food are highlighted for their growth potential in emerging channels and new product launches [37][34]. Seasoning & Catering - Anqi Yeast and Zhongju Gaoxin are recommended for their strong domestic performance and overseas growth potential, with expectations for improved profitability in Q4 [30][31]. Baking Supply Chain - Hai Rong Technology is recommended for its overseas expansion plans and expected growth in 2024 [33]. Sugar Alternatives - Companies like Rhein Biotech and Huakang are suggested for their strong market positions in natural sweeteners, which are expected to see increased demand [39]. Catering - Recommendations include Tongqinglou and Yum China, focusing on their collaborative growth strategies and innovative supply chains [42][40]. Pet Industry - Companies like Zhongchong and Petty are highlighted for their strong export performance and market positioning [45][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [4] Core Views - The report highlights significant price increases in folic acid, with a weekly rise of approximately 60%, driven by supply constraints and low inventory levels among distributors [1] - The commencement of the second phase of the Gule Refining and Chemical Integration Project, with a total investment of 71.1 billion yuan, is expected to enhance the industrial chain and promote high-end, intelligent, and green development in the petrochemical sector [1] - The report identifies several investment themes, including the competitiveness of domestic tire manufacturers, the potential recovery in consumer electronics, and the resilience of certain cyclical industries [2][3][5] Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Sector Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.91%, while the basic chemical index decreased by 0.47% this week [16] - The top-performing sub-industries included viscose (up 8.81%) and membrane materials (up 4.6%), while the worst performers included nylon (-3.42%) and coatings (-3.29%) [18] 2. Key Industry Dynamics - Folic acid prices surged, with current market quotes rising to 380-400 yuan/kg, compared to 200 yuan/kg the previous week [1] - The Gule Refining and Chemical Integration Project is set to provide 5 million tons of raw materials annually upon completion in 2030 [1] 3. Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Domestic tire manufacturers are becoming increasingly competitive, with companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire recommended for attention [5] - Investment Theme 2: The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, with upstream material companies like Dongcai Technology and Stik highlighted as potential beneficiaries [2] - Investment Theme 3: The phosphorous chemical industry is tightening due to environmental policies, with companies like Yuntianhua and Chuanheng Co. recommended [3] - Investment Theme 4: Leading chemical companies are expected to benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence, with firms like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng suggested for investment [5] - Investment Theme 5: Supply disruptions in vitamin products, particularly vitamins A and E, are creating investment opportunities in companies like Zhejiang Medicine [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent drop in coal prices is not a cause for pessimism, as demand is expected to stabilize with the onset of colder weather and increased electricity consumption [2]. - The coal supply is under pressure due to strict capacity controls and environmental regulations, leading to a potential long-term scarcity of resources [2]. - The report suggests that coal remains a critical energy source, with resilient demand expected despite macroeconomic challenges and the growth of renewable energy [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 0.88%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.72 percentage points [14]. - Year-to-date, the coal index has increased by 3.08%, while the Shanghai Composite has risen by 12.67% [14]. 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of November 22, 2024, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 824 CNY/ton, down 13 CNY/ton week-on-week [27]. - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 84.2%, reflecting a slight increase [27]. 2.2 Annual Long-term Contract Prices - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 699 CNY/ton, unchanged month-on-month but down 14 CNY/ton year-on-year [29]. 2.3 Spot Prices - Domestic coal prices have seen minor declines, with the Inner Mongolia price at 697 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton week-on-week [33]. - The price for Shanxi weakly sticky coal is 700 CNY/ton, down 7 CNY/ton week-on-week [33]. 2.4 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 2.4.1 Supply - The operating rate of coal mines in the three provinces is 84.2%, with Inner Mongolia at 91.2% and Shaanxi at 92.3% [51]. 2.4.2 Demand - Daily coal consumption by six major power plants increased to 81.4 million tons, up 5 million tons week-on-week [53]. 2.4.3 Inventory Management - The inventory of coal production enterprises is 14.048 million tons, down 3.2 million tons week-on-week [71]. 3. Coking Coal - The price for coking coal remains stable, with the main coking coal price at 1640 CNY/ton as of November 22, 2024 [2]. - The report indicates that coking coal prices are expected to remain stable due to policy support and slight increases in production rates [2]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [2]. - Companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration and those with production growth potential are also highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical sector [4]. Core Insights - The commercial health insurance sector is expected to experience rapid growth due to recent policy catalysts and the need for improved data sharing among stakeholders [1][30]. - The pharmaceutical sector has shown resilience, with the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.2 percentage points in the recent week [2][34]. - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: innovation, recovery, and policy support, which are crucial for long-term investment strategies in the pharmaceutical industry [2][9]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index fell by 2.4% during the week of November 18-22, 2024, while the year-to-date decline is 10.4%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 23.0 percentage points [34]. - Notable stock performances included Dae Oriental (+50.00%), Hotgen Biotech (+43.37%), and Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical (+21.92%) [46]. Commercial Health Insurance - The growth rate of premium income and expenditure in commercial health insurance has slowed since 2020, with premium income accounting for 10.2% of total health expenditure in 2022, while expenditure was only 4.2% [17][30]. - The report highlights the significant gap in development levels of domestic commercial health insurance compared to international standards, particularly in terms of insurance depth and density [28][30]. - Recent policy developments are expected to address data sharing issues, which have hindered the precise pricing and design of health insurance products [30]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests increasing allocations to the pharmaceutical sector, anticipating excess returns post semi-annual reports [9]. - Key investment themes include: - **Innovation**: Focus on innovative drugs and medical devices, with a clear path to profitability for several companies by 2025 [2][9]. - **Recovery**: Anticipated recovery in medical device demand and consumer healthcare spending [2][9]. - **Policy Support**: Government policies favoring high-dividend companies and encouraging mergers and acquisitions in the sector [2][9]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends a focus on companies such as Kangfang Biopharma, Yunding New Medicine, and Yifang Biopharma for potential investment opportunities [3][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility sector [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in electricity consumption growth in October, with a total electricity consumption of 774.2 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, down 4.2 percentage points from September [2][17] - China's offshore wind power has reached a cumulative installed capacity of 39.1 million kW, maintaining its position as the global leader, with expectations to exceed 45 million kW by the end of the year [2][31] - Emerging solid waste recycling technologies are maturing, with an estimated 1.7 billion tons of industrial solid waste being utilized in the first three quarters of the year [2][36] Summary by Sections Market Review - From November 18 to November 22, the electricity and environmental sectors saw declines of 0.71% and 0.07%, respectively, while the water and gas sectors increased by 0.22% and 0.52% [11][12] Industry Insights - October's electricity consumption growth has slowed, with the first, second, and third industries growing by 5.1%, 2.7%, and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively [17][18] - The average temperature in October was 11.7°C, which is 1.0°C higher than the historical average, contributing to the decline in electricity demand [18] - The offshore wind power sector is projected to reach a total installed capacity of 200 million kW by 2030, with an estimated total investment of approximately 2.6 trillion yuan [31][47] Industry Dynamics - The report notes that Zhejiang province added 10.37 million kW of wind and solar power capacity in the first ten months of the year, marking a significant milestone [44] - The report also mentions the approval of 97 fixed asset investment projects by the National Development and Reform Commission, totaling an investment of 916 billion yuan [44] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the water and electricity sectors, such as Changjiang Electric Power and Qianyuan Electric Power, while being cautious with others like Guotou Power and Huaneng Hydropower [2] - In the solid waste sector, companies like Yongxing Co., Sanfeng Environment, and Huanlan Environment are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [3]. Core Insights - The paper industry is expected to see a short-term price boost for white cardboard due to production cuts and price increases by leading companies, indicating a potential recovery in industry profitability [2][3]. - The Ministry of Commerce has introduced policies to support the growth of cross-border e-commerce, which is anticipated to benefit the light industry [3][4]. - The home furnishing sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, supported by government subsidies and improving real estate data [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market, with a decline of 0.46% compared to a 2.6% drop in the CSI 300 index [15]. - The entertainment products sector index increased by 3.12%, while the paper and packaging sectors saw slight declines [15][23]. 2. Home Furnishing - As of November 10, 2024, nationwide subsidies for home furnishing products have reached 10.38 million units for kitchen and bathroom products and 8.2 million units for furniture [2]. - In October, furniture retail sales grew by 16.9% year-on-year, significantly faster than the previous month [2]. - The report maintains a positive outlook for the home furnishing industry, driven by domestic consumption recovery and improved real estate data [2][4]. 3. Paper Industry - As of November 22, 2024, prices for various paper products showed slight increases, with white cardboard up by 5 yuan/ton and boxboard up by 11 yuan/ton [2]. - Major companies in the white cardboard sector have announced price increases, indicating a potential short-term price boost and recovery in profitability [2][3]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with integrated operations and strong supply chains, such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [2][3]. 4. Export Chain - The Ministry of Commerce has issued policies to stabilize foreign trade, emphasizing the development of new business models like cross-border e-commerce [3][4]. - In October, exports of various light industry products showed positive growth, with insulated cups and pet snacks increasing by 21% and 27% year-on-year, respectively [4]. 5. Packaging - The report highlights ongoing consolidation in the metal packaging sector, with recommendations for companies like Shengxing and Aori Jin [4]. - The paper packaging sector is advised to focus on leading companies in consumer electronics packaging and pulp molding [4].