行 业 研 究 华福证券 农林牧渔 2025 年 03 月 16 日 白鸡出栏"断档" ，短期价格上行 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：猪价震荡运行，2 月三方能繁环比转负/缓增。1）上周猪价 震荡上调。上旬养殖企业出栏节奏相对平缓，散户低价惜售，供应压力相 对缓和，猪价小幅上调，3 月 14 日全国生猪均价为 14.57 元/公斤，周环比 +0.12 元/公斤。2）冻品库存率继续回升。当前处于猪肉消费淡季，短期消 费端缺乏明显利好。上周样本屠企日均宰杀量为14.52万头，周环比+3.26%。 冻品市场方面，冻品出库缓慢，同时终端需求疲软导致分割品被动入库的 现象存在，冻品库存率继续上升。上周行业冻品库存率达 16.06%，周环比 +0.48pct。3）生猪均重继续回升。上周肥标价差高位回落，175/200 公斤生 猪与标猪价差 0.80/1.61 元/斤，周环比-0.16/-0.19 元/斤。市场大猪出栏积极 性提升，均重继续上移。上周生猪出栏均重 127.92kg，周环比+0.86kg。展 望后市，卓创/钢联样本企业 3 月出栏计划环比+13%/+11%，出栏继续增长， 叠加生猪均重上行，供 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [7][24]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 10.07 billion RMB for the fiscal year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.15 billion RMB, also up by 19.5%, meeting expectations [2][7]. - The company increased its dividend payout ratio to 45%, up by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, signaling confidence in its financial health [2]. Financial Performance - The adult apparel segment generated revenues of 4.29 billion RMB and 3.09 billion RMB for footwear and apparel respectively in 2024, with growth rates of 22% and 15% year-on-year, driven by increased sales volume [4]. - The children's apparel segment saw a revenue increase of 19.5% to 2.34 billion RMB, with footwear and apparel growing by 18% and 23% respectively, indicating strong market demand [4]. - The company's gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 41.5% in 2024, supported by effective cost control and pricing strategies [6]. Operational Insights - As of the end of 2024, the company operated 5,750 adult apparel stores and 2,548 children's apparel stores, with a 10% increase in sales for both segments in Q3 and Q4 [5]. - The company has introduced innovative retail formats, including 10th generation and super stores, which are expected to enhance brand image and inventory management [5]. - E-commerce revenue reached 2.61 billion RMB in 2024, growing by 12.2% year-on-year, with online exclusive products accounting for 83.6% of sales [5]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.30 billion RMB, 1.50 billion RMB, and 1.72 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 13%, 15%, and 15% [7][13]. - The current stock price corresponds to a 7x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, reinforcing the "Buy" rating [7].

美 CPI 数据出炉，降息预期交易较弱 T Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固收定期研究 2025 年 3 月 16 日 ——海外宏观周报 ➢ 利率：美国CPI走弱但对债市刺激有限。 【美债】本周（20250308-20250314）周三，美国CPI数据公布，2 月CPI同比增长2.8%，预估为2.9%，前值为3%；核心 CPI当月上涨 0.2%，同比上涨 3.1%，低于预期的月度涨幅 0.3% 和年度涨幅 3.2%。但本次温和通胀数据对债市刺激作用小于预期，当日，10年 期国债利率在短暂下行再次回到消息前水平，股市走势亦大致相似， 短暂反弹后午后重新走低。这意味着投资者对贸易战的担忧要更有持 续性，高频数据受其滞后性对交易的推动作用进一步弱化，后续应更 侧重于对关税边际变动的交易。【英国10年期国债】利率上升 14.65bp，欧洲主要经济体仍延续上周抛售格局，德法债券长升短 降，降息预期持续，曲线继续走陡。 ➢ 权益： 主要经济体周五均有所反弹，或受左侧布局美股资金扰动。 关税反复下【美股】几乎全周下跌，11日在特朗普在社交媒体上称， 将对加拿大进口的钢铝产品加征25%关税，令 ...

投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：猪价震荡运行，2 月三方能繁环比转负/缓增。1）上周猪价 震荡上调。上旬养殖企业出栏节奏相对平缓，散户低价惜售，供应压力相 对缓和，猪价小幅上调，3 月 14 日全国生猪均价为 14.57 元/公斤，周环比 +0.12 元/公斤。2）冻品库存率继续回升。当前处于猪肉消费淡季，短期消 费端缺乏明显利好。上周样本屠企日均宰杀量为14.52万头，周环比+3.26%。 冻品市场方面，冻品出库缓慢，同时终端需求疲软导致分割品被动入库的 现象存在，冻品库存率继续上升。上周行业冻品库存率达 16.06%，周环比 +0.48pct。3）生猪均重继续回升。上周肥标价差高位回落，175/200 公斤生 猪与标猪价差 0.80/1.61 元/斤，周环比-0.16/-0.19 元/斤。市场大猪出栏积极 性提升，均重继续上移。上周生猪出栏均重 127.92kg，周环比+0.86kg。展 望后市，卓创/钢联样本企业 3 月出栏计划环比+13%/+11%，出栏继续增长， 叠加生猪均重上行，供应压力下短期猪价或偏弱运行。2 月三方样本能繁 环比转负/微增，钢联/涌益/卓创能繁环比+0.06%/- ...

行 业 研 究 华福证券 国防军工 2025 年 03 月 16 日 国防军工 军工本周观点：继续乐观 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 本周，申万军工指数（801740）上涨 2.57% ，同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.59%， 相对超额 0.98pct，延续了上周估值修复趋势。 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周 2025 年政府工作报告全文正式公布，其中"深海科技"作为新兴产业 被首次提及，带动相关标的跑出明显超额；同时在两会现场，全国政协委 员、中核集团聚变领域首席科学家段旭如指出"我国核聚变技术已从过去 的跟跑到并跑，再到部分技术达到国际领先水平，目前已位于国际第一方 阵，与国际同步处于科学研究向实验堆工程验证过渡的关键阶段"。我们 认为，新技术、新方向或已成为十五五期间不可忽视的投资主线。 3 月 7 日，习主席出席十四届全国人大三次会议解放军和武警部队代表团 全体会议时，强调"实现我军建设"十四五"规划圆满收官，对如期实现 建军一百年奋斗目标具有重要意义"、"要加紧解决规划执行中的堵点卡 点问题"。3 月 14 日，国防部例行新闻发布会上，张晓刚大校强调了"我 军建设"十四五"规划已进入爬坡过坎、突围冲刺 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that all six sub-sectors of the pharmaceutical index recorded positive returns, indicating a strong performance in the market [2] - According to the "2025 AI Era Health Sleep White Paper" by iResearch, 64% of adults only manage to maintain a minimum of 6 hours of sleep, with average sleep duration decreasing by 5% compared to 2024, necessitating innovative solutions in sleep technology [3][7] - AI smart mattresses are emerging as a new category to address sleep issues, featuring three main advantages: medical-grade monitoring and intervention, full-home smart integration, and chronic disease warning and health management [8][9] Group 2 - The pharmaceutical sector has shown significant recovery, driven by the strong performance of AI in the medical field, with the AI medical index in Hong Kong rising by 35.57% and the A-share smart medical index increasing by 22.33% since the beginning of 2025 [20] - The report notes that nearly 70% of consumers are willing to purchase AI smart mattresses, with the global market expected to reach $1.8 billion in 2024 and grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7% from 2025 to 2030 [8][9] - The report discusses the impact of the DRG/DIP payment reform on the healthcare system, which is expected to reshape the medical insurance landscape and create a new tiered health insurance model in China [25][26]

行 业 研 究 华福证券 煤炭 2025 年 03 月 16 日 产地煤价大涨，估值修复可期 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 3 月 14 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 681 元/吨， 周环比-7 元/吨。产地价格大涨，内蒙古、山西、陕西坑口价周环比分 别+8.4%、+11.4%、+10.2%。晋陕蒙三省煤矿开工率为 82%，周环比 基本持平。本周电厂日耗大跌，电厂库存小涨、秦港库存小跌；非电 方面，甲醇开工率微跌、尿素开工率小跌，仍处于历史同期偏高水平， 截至 3 月 13 日，甲醇开工率为 86%，周环比-0.3pct，年同比+2.9pct； 截至 3 月 13 日，尿素开工率为 87.8%，周环比-1.3pct，年同比+2.2pct。 焦煤 截至 3 月 14 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1380 元/吨，周环比-10 元/ 吨，产地价格持平。铁水产量微涨，样本钢厂煤焦库存微涨。本周焦 炭价格小跌、螺纹钢价格微跌，截至 3 月 14 日，山西临汾一级冶金焦 出厂价 1350 元/吨，周环比-50 元/吨，螺纹钢现货价格 3300 元，周环 比-20 元/吨，焦炭第十 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][16] Core Insights - The application of 3C equipment in the assembly of humanoid robots presents significant growth potential, as the production process resembles that of consumer electronics rather than automotive manufacturing [3][4] - Companies such as Bozhong Precision, Tianzhun Technology, Qiangrui Technology, Bojie Co., Lingyun Optical, and OptoTech are actively involved in the humanoid robot assembly and related core components [3] - Apple is increasing its investment in robotics technology, with plans to launch a desktop robot by 2026-2027, indicating a strategic shift towards smarter consumer electronics [4][5] Summary by Sections 3C Equipment in Robotics - The report highlights the broad application space for 3C equipment in the assembly of humanoid robots, with several companies already making strategic moves in this area [3] - Specific companies mentioned include: - Bozhong Precision: Engaged in humanoid robot assembly and core components - Tianzhun Technology: Promoting its first intelligent controller for the humanoid robot industry - Qiangrui Technology: Focusing on core components and testing equipment for robots - Bojie Co.: Holds a 24% stake in Erzhi Robotics, a developer of industrial robots - Lingyun Optical: Provides key data services for intelligent training in humanoid robots - OptoTech: Supplies products and technologies for the production of humanoid robots [3] Apple's Robotics Investment - Apple is reportedly ramping up its robotics research and development, with a new desktop robot expected to be mass-produced by 2026-2027, showcasing its commitment to enhancing user experience through intelligent devices [4][5] Foldable Screen Technology - The report discusses Apple's potential entry into the foldable screen market, with expected shipments of 8 to 10 million units for its first foldable iPhone in 2026, which could stimulate consumer demand and expand market opportunities [5][6] - The use of 3D printing technology in foldable screens is highlighted, with companies like Honor and OPPO achieving significant breakthroughs in manufacturing techniques [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][70]. Core Insights - The electric bicycle trade-in program has shown significant results, with 1.664 million units sold by March 11, 2025, surpassing the total for 2024 by 120.4% [3][11]. - The online sales of robotic vacuum cleaners in January-February 2025 reached 1.916 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, with sales volume of 587,500 units, up 58% year-on-year [3][13]. Summary by Sections Electric Bicycle Trade-in Program - The trade-in program has resulted in 1.664 million electric bicycles being sold, with a total subsidy of 1 billion yuan, averaging 600 yuan per person, leading to new car sales of 4.51 billion yuan [3][11]. - The number of participating stores increased to 47,000, with an average sales boost of 96,000 yuan per store [11][12]. Robotic Vacuum Cleaner Sales - The online sales of robotic vacuum cleaners showed a strong performance, with a total sales amount of 1.916 billion yuan and an average price of 3,261 yuan, reflecting a 9% year-on-year increase [3][13]. - Leading brands like Ecovacs and Roborock saw significant increases in their market shares, with Ecovacs achieving a 27% market share and Roborock reaching 25% [13]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major home appliance companies benefiting from the trade-in program, including Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, and TCL Electronics [5][17]. - The pet industry is highlighted as a resilient sector, with recommendations to consider companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [5][17]. - The report anticipates a recovery in demand for small appliances and branded apparel in 2026, suggesting attention to leading brands in these categories [5][17]. Market Performance - The home appliance sector saw an overall increase of 1.7% this week, with specific segments like white goods and kitchen appliances performing particularly well [4][21]. - Raw material prices for copper and aluminum increased by 0.98% and 0.74% respectively compared to the previous week [4][21].

行 华福证券 食品饮料 2025 年 03 月 16 日 业 研 究 食品饮料 复苏预期持续强化，白酒进入估值修复阶段 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【白酒】春节整体基本面或处于底部待反转区间，同时节后白酒企业密集 停止发货，预计停货对价格的支撑在短期内即可显现，后续价格预期积极， 需求端复苏或缓释销售端压力。白酒作为顺周期板块，预期带动估值修复 往往先于基本面，估值具备较强安全边际和配置属性。建议关注可攻可守 的山西汾酒，保价控量、具备降维打击、市占率提升能力的茅台、五粮液 以及受益于婚宴回补的古井贡酒、今世缘、迎驾贡酒。 【啤酒】重点推荐高端化核心标的青岛啤酒、提效改革叠加大单品逻辑的 燕京啤酒。 【软饮料】建议关注：1）功能饮料赛道龙头且逐步探索出第二增长曲线的 东鹏饮料；2）基本面具备积极预期的香飘飘。 【预调酒】百润股份作为预调酒行业龙头企业，公司历史行情通常为大单 品所驱动的 PE 扩张，行情较快，操作上更适合左侧布局，目前公司威士忌 已正式上市，当前公司 25 年 PE 为 37 倍上下，我们认为具备较大赔率。 【乳制品】重点推荐利润导向明显的全国乳企巨头伊利股份，关注其产品 结构优化带来 ...