行 业 研 究 3 月信贷、社融超预期，M1 增速回升 投资要点： 3 月信贷、社融数据超预期 当月新增社融 5.89 万亿元，同比多增 1.05 万亿元。3 月末存量社融同 比增长 8.4%，增速环比提升 0.2pct，为近一年来最高。 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 从社融增量结构来看，社融同比多增主要来自贷款和直接融资的贡献。 3 月信贷"开门红"顺利收官，信贷增量超预期，社融口径人民币贷 款新增 3.83 万亿元，同比多增 5358 亿元。政府债继续保持较快的发 行节奏，3 月直接融资新增 1.43 万亿元，其中政府债新增 1.48 万亿元， 同比多增 1.02 万亿元。 银行 2025 年 04 月 14 日 企业短贷支撑信贷同比多增 3 月是传统信贷投放大月，实体信贷需求旺盛，贷款同比多增主要来 自企业短贷贡献。企业贷款新增 2.84 万亿元，同比多增 5000 亿元。 其中，企业中长期贷款新增 15800 亿元，增量与上年同期基本持平； 企业短贷新增 14400 亿元，同比多增 4600 亿元。票据融资减少 1986 亿元，银行将更多信贷投放额度向实体企业倾斜。 居民信贷增量与上年同期基本持平。3 月居 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [5][18]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 6.901 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 574 million, representing a 14% increase [3][5]. - The report highlights significant growth in overseas orders, with foreign sales projected to reach 1.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 68%, while domestic sales are expected to decline by 11% due to pressures in the renewable energy sector [4]. - The company is actively expanding its global production capacity and enhancing its AIDC modular product competitiveness, with a notable increase in orders for data center solutions [4][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.102 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a net profit of 171 million, remaining stable compared to the previous quarter [3]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected to be 24.3%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is expected to be 8.3%, up by 0.7 percentage points [3]. - The overall sales order for the group in 2024 is anticipated to be 8.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.63%, with a backlog of 6.5 billion at the end of 2024, up 35% year-on-year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s net profit is forecasted to reach 740 million in 2025, 1.07 billion in 2026, and 1.51 billion in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20, 14, and 10 times [5][7].

Group 1 - The report focuses on a theme investment database aimed at screening high-quality price-volume patterns and capturing the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][8] - The database emphasizes two aspects: quantifying four types of patterns for high-odds theme opportunities and constructing trading heat indicators to grasp the peak rhythm of popular themes, with recent additions to observe the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][8] - The current issue highlights the number of theme indices showing different patterns: 17 indices showing bottoming patterns, 21 indices breaking out, 0 in main rising patterns, and 5 in acceleration patterns, with a focus on downstream consumer sectors [11] Group 2 - The trading heat for humanoid robots and Deepseek themes has cooled, with leading stocks adjusting below their 60-day moving average (MA60) [3][16] - As of April 11, 2025, the trading heat for humanoid robots has dropped to 50%, with Changsheng Bearing's closing price being 1.8% below MA60; for Deepseek, the trading heat has decreased to 43%, with Daily Interaction's closing price being 12.5% below MA60 [3][16]

行 业 汽车 2025 年 04 月 13 日 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 汽车 奇瑞发布最新混动技术 上汽携手合作伙伴共创 美好出行 投资要点： 本周专题：奇瑞发布最新混动技术 上汽携手合作伙伴共创美好出行 4 月 10 日，奇瑞汽车举办"中国混动 智领全球"混动之夜暨开源 计划发布会，正式发布最新全球混动技术、全球混动技术标准宣言及 奇瑞混动技术开源计划。 经过 20 余年的深耕布局，奇瑞构建起全球领先的混动技术。2025 年，奇瑞将推出 39 款混动产品，随着开源计划的深入推进与新车型的 陆续上市，奇瑞有望在混动汽车市场掀起新一轮技术革命与市场热潮。 4 月 10 日，上汽集团联合华为、Momenta、地平线、火山引擎、 OPPO 等十几家合作伙伴在上海共同召开"上汽之夜"发布会，以"懂 车更懂你"为主题，对外发布转型新战略。未来上汽将继续与公司的 老朋友大众、通用等合资合作伙伴共创，同时与华为、Momenta、地 平线、字节跳动等跨界伙伴合力打造产业新生态，让全球顶尖技术加 速落地应用，为美好出行赋能。同时，继续与用户同行，从用户中来， 到用户中去，做到"懂车更懂你"，努力满足并不断超越用户期望。 ...

行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2025 年 04 月 13 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 农业强国规划发布，粮食安全再获强调 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 种业&农产品：（1）农业强国规划发布，强调粮食安全、农业科技。 近日，中共中央、国务院印发了《加快建设农业强国规划(2024-2035 年)》。 规划 6 次提及"粮食安全"。要求"扎实推进新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升 行动，深入实施粮油等主要作物大面积单产提升行动"、"全面落实耕地 保护和粮食安全党政同责"、"加快健全种粮农民收益保障机制，完善价 格、补贴、保险等政策体系"。规划 4 次提及"育种"、4 次提及"智慧 农业"、11 次提及"农业科技"。强调"加快实现种业科技自立自强、种 源自主可控"、"研发具有自主知识产权的智慧农业技术"。此外，自 2025 年中央一号文件提出"继续推进生物育种产业化"后，本次农业强国规划 提出"加快生物育种产业化应用"。贸易摩擦加剧背景下粮食安全重要性 进一步凸显，生物育种为增产增效、保障粮食安全的重要手段，转基因商 业化进程有望加速。同时政策支持农业科技发展，AI+农业前景可期。种植 &种业、智慧农业相关标的有望受益，建议关 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [13] Core Insights - The U.S. has exempted certain products from "reciprocal tariffs," including automatic data processors, computers, communication devices, displays, and semiconductors, which may positively impact the supply chain [2][3] - The previous impact of tariffs on the fruit chain companies was overestimated, as domestic suppliers are deemed irreplaceable by Apple, suggesting potential recovery opportunities in the sector [3] - Domestic smartphone brands are showing strong performance, with a projected shipment of 314 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, and domestic brands accounting for 85.6% of the market [4] Summary by Sections Tariff Exemption - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has quietly updated its tariff schedule, exempting certain categories of goods from tariffs, which applies to all countries affected by the previous "reciprocal tariffs" [2] Impact on Supply Chain - The report suggests that the previous concerns regarding tariffs affecting fruit chain companies were exaggerated, and that Apple’s strict requirements for suppliers indicate a strong position for domestic companies [3] Domestic Smartphone Market - According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, domestic smartphone shipments are expected to reach 269 million units in 2024, reflecting a 16.3% year-on-year growth [4] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on: - 3D printing applications (e.g., Huazhu High-Tech, Plittech) - Automated assembly equipment (e.g., Bozhong Precision, Saiteng Co., Quick Intelligent) - Automated testing equipment (e.g., Oatmeal Technology, Jepter, Kory Technology, Tianzhun Technology, Rongqi Technology) - Android-based 3C devices (e.g., Qiangrui Technology, Lihexing, Kory Technology, Quick Intelligent) - Folding screen hinges (e.g., Dongmu Co., Jingyan Technology, Tonglian Precision) - Middle frames and back covers (e.g., Yujing Co., Yuhuan CNC) [5]

行 家用电器 2025 年 04 月 13 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 家用电器 对等关税暂缓，建议关注全球化布局龙头+内需 基本面改善机会——25W15 周观点 投资要点： 对等关税暂缓，建议关注全球化布局龙头+内需基本面改善机会 告 美国宣布对等关税暂缓，建议关注全球化布局龙头。当地时间 4 月 9 日，特朗普宣布对不采取报复性行动的国家暂缓 90 天实施"对等 关税"，仅征收 10%关税，同时对华关税提升至 125%。本次对等关税 暂缓好于此前悲观预期，家电、纺服等可选消费龙头海外产能布局完 善，可通过转口贸易缓解关税压力，建议关注全球化布局龙头。 3 月黑电、清洁电器数据靓丽。根据奥维云网，3 月彩电线上销额、 销量、均价同比+25%、+3%、+21%，线下销额、销量、均价同比+27%、 +19%、+5%，3 月扫地机线上销额、销量、均价同比+48%、+46%、 +1%，3 月洗地机线上销额、销量、均价同比+55%、+53%、+1%。 行情数据 本周家电板块涨跌幅-4.7%，其中白电/黑电/小家电/厨电板块涨跌 幅分别-3.1%/-5.2%/-9.8%/-6.6%。原材料价格方面，LME 铜、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued companies with strong fundamentals, particularly those driven by domestic demand, such as Sun Paper, Xianhe Co., Sophia, and others [2] - Recent buyback announcements from companies like Yutong Technology and Simoer International reflect confidence in their growth prospects, suggesting opportunities for investment in oversold stocks [2] - The report highlights the potential for Chinese companies to gain greater influence in the IP licensing space, particularly in the IP toy industry, as they scale up and improve their product offerings [2] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Performance - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 5.84% compared to a 2.87% drop in the CSI 300 index [16] - Sub-sectors such as home goods, paper, and entertainment products also showed significant declines [16] Home Furnishing - The report notes a narrowing decline in residential sales and construction, with a 1-2 month drop of 17.8% in residential completion and a 3.4% decrease in sales [35] - Companies like Oppein Home and others are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of improving industry dynamics [5] Paper and Packaging - Paper prices have shown mixed trends, with double glue paper at 5387.5 CNY/ton, down 37.5 CNY/ton, while corrugated paper prices increased slightly [5] - The report indicates a 1.9% year-on-year decline in revenue for the paper industry in the first two months of the year [70] Consumer Goods - The report suggests a focus on cultural and creative product leaders like Morning Glory, which are expected to benefit from a recovering domestic consumption environment [5] - Companies in the personal care sector are also recommended for their channel expansion and price increases [7] Export Chain - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports, noting that some countries have received a 90-day delay on tariffs, which benefits companies with established overseas production [7] - Companies like Zhejiang Natural and others are highlighted as potential investment opportunities in the export chain [7] New Tobacco Products - The report mentions Simoer International's stock buyback as a sign of confidence amid regulatory changes in the e-cigarette market [7] - The focus on compliance and harm reduction in the tobacco industry is emphasized as a growing trend [7] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector also underperformed, with a 5.72% decline in the index [25] - Companies like Hailan Home and others are recommended as potential investments due to their brand strength [7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][71]. Core Viewpoints - The military industry is experiencing a comprehensive rise, with the Shenwan Military Industry Index (801740) increasing by 0.28% from April 7 to April 11, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 2.87%, resulting in an excess return of 3.16 percentage points [2][43]. - The military sector demonstrates strong anti-volatility capabilities due to rigid domestic demand, self-control, and resistance characteristics, especially in the context of escalating international trade tensions [3][43]. - The military industry is expected to see significant demand recovery in 2025, driven by the acceleration of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "Centenary of the Army" goals, making it a key area for investment [3][44]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Military Industry Index ranked third among 31 first-level industries this week, showing strong performance [8][14]. - From the beginning of 2025, the Shenwan Military Industry Index has decreased by 1.64%, while the CSI 300 Index has decreased by 4.69%, indicating a relative outperformance of 3.05 percentage points [16]. Fund Flows and Valuation - There has been a significant increase in passive fund sizes and shares, with a net inflow of 2.788 billion yuan into military ETFs, marking the largest net inflow since the beginning of 2025 [27][44]. - As of April 11, the current TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Military Industry Index is 61.38, with a percentile rank of 78.04%, indicating a high configuration value at this time [44][44]. Key Recommendations - The report strongly recommends focusing on two main lines: "Domestic Trade" and "Self-Control" [44]. - Suggested stocks for "Domestic Trade" include Tianqin Equipment, LIGONG Navigation, and Optical Electronics, while for "Self-Control," recommended stocks include Hangyu Technology and Xiling Power [44].

行 华福证券 食品饮料 2025 年 04 月 13 日 业 研 究 食品饮料 坚定看好内需扩张，食饮板块攻守兼备 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【白酒】建议关注保价控量、具备降维打击、市占率提升能力的茅台、五 粮液，以及 alpha 势能延续的汾酒、古井，以及高激励&高考核目标的舍得。 【啤酒】重点推荐高端化核心标的青岛啤酒、提效改革叠加大单品逻辑的 燕京啤酒。 【软饮料】建议关注：1）功能饮料赛道龙头且逐步探索出第二增长曲线的 东鹏饮料；2）基本面具备积极预期的香飘飘。 【预调酒】百润股份作为预调酒行业龙头企业，公司历史行情通常为大单 品所驱动的 PE 扩张，行情较快，操作上更适合左侧布局，目前公司威士忌 已正式上市，当前公司 25 年 PE 为 31 倍上下，我们认为具备较大赔率。 【乳制品】重点推荐利润导向明显的全国乳企巨头伊利股份，关注其产品 结构优化带来的毛利率改善情况以及费用率投放情况。建议关注低温奶乳 企新乳业。 【休闲零食】年货旺季叠加新渠道微信小店的催化，板块景气度维持在较 好水平。建议关注西麦食品、甘源食品、三只松鼠。 【调味品&餐饮】调味品重点推荐安琪酵母：国内量的韧性强、海外增 ...