投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：美12月如期降息25BP，但点阵图中值显示降息有放缓趋势。 美联储12月如期降息25BP，但12月点阵图中值显示，美联储预期2025年将 降息两次，每次25个基点，打压周内贵金属价格出现回调。短期来看，特 朗普交易仍未完全消退，市场对未来经济滞涨担忧仍在，预计贵金属价格 震荡为主；中长期角度来看，全球主要经济体货币政策方向明确，东欧及 朝鲜半岛等地缘冲突仍将凸显贵金属避险属性，中国央行11月增持黄金， 贵金属中长期配置价值不改。个股：黄金建议关注中金黄金、紫金矿业、 山东黄金、赤峰黄金，低估弹性关注株冶集团和玉龙股份，其他关注银泰 黄金、湖南黄金及招金矿业；白银建议关注兴业银锡、银泰黄金、盛达资 源。 证 券 研 究 工业金属：继国内铜库存两周连增之后有望出现反转，宏观面或将继 续压制铜价。铜，供给端，本周进口铜矿TC均价下跌至7美元/吨，据百川 盈孚，24和25年全球铜精矿供需缺口或分别为21.2和82.2万金属吨。巨龙 铜矿新增二期20万吨/日（一期15万吨/日）扩建工程加紧建设，力争2025 年底投产。需求端，整体来看，当前需求虽表现尚可，且年前被压制的需 求 ...

行 华福证券 公用事业 2025 年 01 月 05 日 业 研 究 公用事业 周报（12.30-1.3）：绿证、绿电、绿氢，十五五 双碳谋新篇 投资要点： 行情回顾：12 月 30 日-1 月 3 日，电力、环保、燃气、水务板块分别下跌 5.15%、 7.56%、2.51%、6.02%，同期沪深 300 指数下跌 5.17%。 行 业 定 期 报 告 对已建档立卡的集中可再生能源，基本完成 22 年中至今电量绿证核发全覆 盖：2024 年上半年，国家能源局核发绿证 4.86 亿个，同比增长 13 倍。截至 2024 年 11 月，全国累计核发绿证 47.56 亿个。自 2024 年 6 月 30 日正式启用国家绿证 核发交易系统以后，绿证核发数量增势迅猛。2024 年 10-11 月绿证核发数维持在 12 亿个左右，对应 1.2 万亿千瓦时的可再生能源电量，高位运行。7-11 月（5 个月） 核发的绿证数量累计约 40.50 亿个，是上半年（6 个月）核发绿证数的 8.33 倍。《国 家能源局综合司关于进一步做好可再生能源发电项目建档立卡有关工作的通知》提 出，切实把建档立卡工作抓细抓实抓到位，对已并网的项 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - The fourth generation of gene sequencing technology is gaining traction, with significant advantages in cost, accuracy, and speed, positioning it to become mainstream by 2030, with the market expected to exceed 100 billion [4][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices, supported by favorable government policies [5][12] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index fell by 5.6% in the week of December 30, 2024, to January 3, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.4 percentage points [3] - Year-to-date, the CITIC Pharmaceutical and Biotech Index has decreased by 15.7%, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 25.7 percentage points [3][45] Gene Sequencing Technology - The fourth generation of gene sequencing, represented by Oxford Nanopore Technologies, offers significant advantages such as ultra-long read lengths and real-time sequencing capabilities, with accuracy rates exceeding 99% [24][26] - The domestic leader, BGI Genomics, launched its nanopore sequencing instrument in September 2024, which is expected to enhance market penetration and application expansion [29] Market Trends and Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for the gene sequencing market to grow from 48.7 billion yuan in 2025 to 153.6 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.8% [19] - The approval of the first domestic stem cell therapy drug is seen as a positive development for innovative therapies in the pharmaceutical sector [5] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: innovation, recovery, and policy support, with a particular emphasis on innovative drugs and medical devices [5][12] - Recommended stocks include Heng Rui Medicine, Huada Gene, and Kangwei Century, among others, which are expected to benefit from these trends [6][12]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [13]. Core Insights - The opening of the Jidongyuan High-Speed Railway, which connects Inner Mongolia and Shanxi Province, marks a significant development in the rail transport network, with a total length of 309 kilometers and a design speed of 250 kilometers per hour [3][4]. - The China National Railway Group aims to achieve a passenger volume of 4.28 billion, a cargo volume of 4.03 billion tons, and a total revenue of 1,016 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 4.9%, 1.1%, and 2.6% respectively compared to the previous year [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a target of 165,000 kilometers of railway operating mileage by 2025, with high-speed rail reaching 50,000 kilometers, and a long-term goal of 200,000 kilometers by 2035, which is expected to create vast market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Development - The Jidongyuan High-Speed Railway enhances connectivity between key regions, significantly reducing travel times, such as a 40-minute journey from Ulanqab to Datong South Station [3]. - The railway network's expansion is supported by national policies aimed at increasing infrastructure investment and promoting green development [4][5]. Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies include: 1. China CNR: A leading global supplier of rail transit equipment, maintaining a strong market position [5]. 2. China Railway Signal & Communication Corp: A top provider of rail transit control systems [5]. 3. Times Electric: A leading supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [5]. 4. Sifang Control: A core supplier in the field of high-speed rail monitoring [5]. 5. Shenzhou High-Speed Rail: A leading enterprise in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit [5]. 6. Huizhong Technology: Provides integrated solutions for rail transit operation and maintenance [5].

行 业 研 究 食品饮料 2025 年 01 月 05 日 食品饮料 旺季来临，催化不断 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【白酒】从基本面上来看，虽然政策端目前积极推出利好政策，稳增长举 措积极，助力经济修复的信号明显，但需求的恢复不能一蹴而就，宏观各 项政策落地带来的效果需要时间去陆续显现，短期内白酒板块的量价压力 仍在。白酒作为顺周期板块，预期带动估值修复往往先于基本面。从估值 端来看，目前白酒板块虽较 Q2 极低位置有所修复，但从历史估值来看仍 处于较低水平，安全边际足够。建议关注茅台、五粮液、老窖、舍得酒 业。 【啤酒】重点推荐高端化核心标的青岛啤酒、提效改革叠加大单品逻辑的 燕京啤酒。 【软饮料】建议关注：1）功能饮料赛道龙头且逐步探索出第二增长曲线的 东鹏饮料；2）基本面具备积极预期的香飘飘。 【预调酒】重点推荐预调酒行业龙头百润股份，历史行情通常为大单品所 驱动的 PE 扩张，11 月 19 号，公司威士忌正式上市，当前公司 25 年 PE 为 30 倍上下，我们认为具备较大赔率。 【乳制品】重点推荐利润导向明显的全国乳企巨头伊利股份，关注其产品 结构优化带来的毛利率改善情况以及费用率投放情 ...

证券研究报告|行业投资策略 能源开采 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 2025年1月4日 4、投资建议：1）供需：预期2025年供给增量有限且不确定性增大、火电有望边际改善，非电企稳，煤炭供需格局预计相较于 2023-2024年小幅改善。2）煤价：2025年预计动力煤中枢价格基本持平；焦煤中枢价格或微降，一季度或出现年内低点。3）建 议关注：考虑到动力煤价格整体较为平稳，优先配置资源禀赋强、成本控制得当、长协比例较高且高股息品种，如中国神华、 陕西煤业、中煤能源；待煤价底部确立则可加大估值具备优势且具有成长性煤企的配置，如淮北矿业、山煤国际、广汇能源。 5、风险提示：国内煤炭产能释放超预期、进口煤超预期、替代电源发电量超预期、宏观经济不及预期 2025年煤炭行业投资策略 红利当先，成长其后 证券分析师： 李骥 执业证书编号：S0210524080008 联系人： 汤悦 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 1、行业复盘：2024年动力煤价前高后低，焦煤价格阶梯式下滑且波幅较大。煤炭年内绝对收益为正，跑输沪深300指数。 2、供给情况：1）国内：强安监下前低后高，预计24全年原煤产量小幅增 ...

行 华福证券 机械设备 2025 年 01 月 05 日 业 研 究 机械设备 三星收购机器人企业，速腾聚创入局人形机器人赛道 投资要点： 三星收购韩国上市人形机器人企业股份，持股比例增至 35% 行 业 定 期 报 告 在 2024 年的最后一天，韩国科技巨头三星宣布，以 2670 亿韩元 （约合 13.29 亿元人民币）的价格收购韩国上市人形机器人企业 Rainbow Robotics 的股份，将其持股比例从 14.7%增至 35%，预计该交 易将于 2025 年 2 月完成，届时，三星将成为 Rainbow Robotics 的最大 股东，并将后者纳入三星的合并财务报表，成为三星子公司。他们明 确表示，这次收购是为了加强三星的机器人部门并加快人形机器人的 开发，通过将三星电子的人工智能和软件技术与 Rainbow Robotics 的 机器人技术相结合，他们希望这次合作能够让三星的人形机器人研发 进度跻身行业前列。三星亲自下场，或许意味着韩国也将加入中美在 人形机器人行业的"大博弈"。 速腾聚创入局人形机器人，第二代灵巧手 Papert 2.0 正式发布 RoboSense 速腾聚创近日召开"Hello ...

行 华福证券 轻工制造 2025 年 01 月 05 日 业 研 究 轻工制造 把握顺周期回调布局机会 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【周观点】近期市场情绪回落带动轻纺板块整体回调，建议把握顺周期子 板块回调布局机会，看好 25 年内需顺周期复苏以及外销阿尔法标的；本周 浙江自然发布高增长目标股权激励，彰显发展信心，公司销售对欧为主、 经营拐点向上。 【周研究】本周发布报告《太阳纸业（002078.SZ）：林浆纸一体化龙头， 盈利改善在即》，1 月 3 日股价对应 25 年公司 PE 对应 12X，低于可比公 司平均 17X PE。公司作为行业龙头，且管理优势显著，随着林浆纸一体化 的稳步推进，公司业绩有望稳定增长。首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 分析师： 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李含稚(S0210524060005) lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、轻工纺服行业周报： ...

行 业 机械设备 2025 年 01 月 05 日 研 究 湖南对核电小堆产业发展进行专题研究，超导磁体动态 测试设施在合肥建成 投资要点： 湖南对核电小堆进行专题研究，内陆核电建设有望适时提上议程 行 业 定 期 报 告 近期，湖南省新能源及电工装备产业工作小组对湖南省核电小堆 产业发展情况进行了专题研究。2022 年以来，我国每年均核准 10 个左 右的核电项目，持续刷新核电项目核准记录。据预测，到 2035 年左右， 中国核电发展规模约 2 亿千瓦左右，这相当于我国沿海核电备选厂址 极限总规模，预计内陆核电建设将适时提上议程。研究结果显示，核 电小堆是未来能源发展的大趋势，围绕加快布局核电小堆产业，抢占 未来能源产业发展新赛道，工作小组提出"五个一批"工作建议：谋 划一批示范项目、创新一批应用场景、打造一批研究平台、扶持一批 重点企业、强化一批保障措施。 国际最大，超导磁体动态测试设施在合肥建成 近日，由中国科学院合肥物质院等离子体所建设运行的国家重大 科技基础设施"聚变堆主机关键系统"子系统"聚变工程堆中心螺管 系统"完成首轮测试实验，最大测试电流达到稳态 48kA。实验结果表 明该设施达到总储能 4 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company has over 40 years of experience in the paper industry and has become a leading integrated player in the pulp and paper sector in China. It has a total production capacity exceeding 12 million tons as of the end of 2023, with three major bases entering a new phase of coordinated development [3][15]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 2.8%, 6.6%, and 6.2% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth of -0.5%, 6.8%, and 17.4% respectively, indicating a stable growth outlook [5][39]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company primarily engages in the production and sale of mechanical paper, paper products, wood pulp, and paperboard. It has established itself as a significant player in the integrated pulp and paper industry in China [3][15]. - As of the end of 2023, the company has a total production capacity of over 12 million tons, with three major bases fully collaborating in development [3][15]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 39.54 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 9.9% to 3.086 billion yuan. For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue reached 30.975 billion yuan, up 6.07% year-on-year, and net profit was 2.459 billion yuan, up 15.08% year-on-year [20][39]. - The company’s average ROE from 2019 to 2023 was 14.3%, significantly higher than the industry average [4][31]. Cost Structure and Efficiency - The company has maintained a stable cash flow and has reduced its debt ratio to below 50% in 2023, effectively lowering its financial burden [4][31]. - The average net profit margin from 2019 to 2023 was 8.6%, also above the industry average [4][31]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a short-term improvement in supply and demand dynamics for cultural paper, with price increases expected following a production halt by a competitor [5][39]. - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual release of cost pressures due to lower pulp prices, leading to improved profitability in the coming quarters [5][39]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company has established three major production bases in Shandong, Guangxi, and Laos, with ongoing projects to expand production capacity, including a new phase in Nanning [4][35][37]. - Future projects include the construction of a 400,000-ton specialty paper production line and a 350,000-ton bleached chemical wood pulp production line, with a total investment of up to 7 billion yuan [5][37].