Group 1 - The report highlights the resurgence of the "Trump trade," with a widening support gap between Trump and Harris, leading to a 0.52% increase in the US dollar index to 103.5 and a 1.94% rise in the Russell 2000 index, nearing its highest point since the end of 2021 [1][35] - Strong non-farm payroll data and persistent inflation, with September inflation year-on-year growth at 2.4%, have tempered expectations for interest rate cuts, raising the probability of a 50 basis point cut this year from 32.7% at the beginning of the month to 76.8% currently [1][35] - The report notes that the US retail sales for September increased by 0.4%, exceeding both the previous value of 0.1% and the forecast of 0.3%, indicating robust consumer growth [1][35] Group 2 - In the equity market, the Shenzhen Component Index saw the largest increase of 2.95%, while the Hang Seng Index experienced the largest decline of 2.11% [52][56] - The report indicates that the US public utilities sector had the highest increase of 3.36%, while the energy sector faced the largest decline of 2.53% [60] - The report also mentions that the COMEX silver had the highest increase of 6.84%, while NYMEX light crude oil recorded the largest decline of 8.15% [52][65] Group 3 - The report states that the 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 6.3 basis points to 4.079% following the release of strong economic data, indicating a resilient economy and labor market [1][35] - It is noted that the market anticipates a 90.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November, with the overall sentiment leaning towards cautious monetary policy adjustments [1][35][43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry, with a focus on precious metals and industrial metals, while acknowledging short-term market fluctuations [2][9]. Core Insights - Precious Metals: The trend of monetary easing is emerging, with geopolitical tensions highlighting the safe-haven attributes of gold. The Federal Reserve's significant rate cut of 50 basis points in September, along with similar actions from other central banks, supports this outlook. The report anticipates continued upward pressure on gold prices due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the upcoming U.S. elections [2][9]. - Industrial Metals: The report indicates a mixed short-term outlook but a positive long-term perspective. The copper market is characterized by tight supply-demand balance, with global copper inventories at 470,800 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22,740 tons. The report expects copper prices to rise as monetary easing stimulates investment and consumption [2][11][13]. - New Energy Metals: The lithium market is experiencing a significant correction, with production levels stable and no signs of production cuts. The report notes that while the market is currently oversupplied, long-term demand from the electric vehicle sector remains strong [2][14]. - Other Minor Metals: The rare earth market is showing weak sentiment, with limited purchasing activity from downstream sectors. However, potential improvements in supply-demand dynamics are anticipated in 2024 [2][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - Precious Metals: The report emphasizes the safe-haven demand for gold amid geopolitical tensions and monetary easing, suggesting a bullish outlook for gold and silver prices [2][9]. - Industrial Metals: The report highlights the tight supply-demand balance in the copper market, with expectations for price increases driven by monetary easing and strong demand from the renewable energy sector [2][11][13]. - New Energy Metals: The lithium market is facing a downturn, but the report suggests that long-term demand remains robust, particularly from the electric vehicle industry [2][14]. - Other Minor Metals: The rare earth market is currently weak, but potential improvements in supply-demand dynamics are expected in the future [2][15]. 2. Weekly Review - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.85%, outperforming the CSI 300 index. Notable stock performances included Guangzhi Technology with a 148.86% increase [2][20][17]. 3. Valuation - As of October 18, the non-ferrous metals industry has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.96, indicating relatively low valuations in the copper and aluminum sectors, with potential for upward adjustments [2][23]. 4. Major Events - The report notes significant macroeconomic events, including the Federal Reserve's rate cut of 50 basis points in September, which is expected to influence the non-ferrous metals market positively [2][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry [3] Core Views - The report highlights that the price competition in the wind and solar sectors is expected to ease, with significant catalysts on the horizon for the industry [3] - Key insights include the potential turning point for lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) cathodes, strong policy support for low-altitude economy, and the need for industry self-regulation to prevent irrational competition in the photovoltaic sector [3][14] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - The report notes an increase in the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes, indicating a potential price turning point. In September, the production of lithium iron phosphate reached 238,600 tons, up 10.2% month-on-month, with a capacity utilization rate exceeding 60% [7] - The low-altitude economy is gaining traction due to policy support and industry trends, with significant employment opportunities projected in drone operation [8] 2. New Energy Generation Sector 2.1 Photovoltaic Sector - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association held a meeting to prevent "involution" and promote industry self-regulation. The minimum cost for N-type M10 double-glass photovoltaic modules was reported at 0.68 yuan/W, which is expected to stabilize prices and reduce irrational competition [14][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of setting reasonable bidding schemes to enhance market stability [15] 2.2 Wind Power Sector - The report mentions that Dongcable won the bid for the first loop of the 500KV submarine cable for the Fan Stone project, with a bid amount of 910 million yuan [21] - Twelve wind turbine manufacturers signed a self-regulation agreement to maintain fair competition in the market [22] 3. Energy Storage Sector - The report discusses Germany's recent legislative changes that facilitate the installation of balcony solar storage systems, which are expected to boost deployment significantly [26] - Haibo Technology's IPO was approved, indicating strong growth potential in the energy storage sector [27] 4. Electric Equipment and Industrial Control Sector - The State Grid's third batch of metering product tenders for 2024 amounted to 29.77 million units, with an expected total bid amount of 8.56 billion yuan [32] - The report highlights improvements in manufacturing PMI and the launch of new electric control products by Huichuan [35] 5. Hydrogen Energy Sector - The report notes the increasing trend of wind-solar-hydrogen integration, with significant investments in hydrogen production projects [41] - Hong Kong's government is increasing subsidies for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, indicating a supportive policy environment for hydrogen energy [42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong inventory management and cost advantages, such as CATL and Tianqi Lithium [9] - It also highlights emerging technologies like sodium-ion and solid-state batteries, recommending companies involved in these innovations [9][11] - For the photovoltaic sector, it recommends companies with cost advantages in integrated modules and inverter manufacturers benefiting from increased demand [19] - In the hydrogen sector, it suggests companies with strong electrolyzer performance and fuel cell systems [43]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [3][59]. Core Insights - The commercialization of autonomous driving is accelerating, with significant breakthroughs expected due to advancements in computing power, big data, and large models. The intelligent connected vehicle sector is entering a new development phase [2][7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is conducting pilot work for the access and road testing of intelligent connected vehicles, with nine joint pilot groups already established [7][8]. - A series of national mandatory and recommended standards for intelligent connected vehicles will be released from 2024 to 2026, supporting high-level autonomous driving and multi-scenario applications by 2025 [7][8]. - Recent IPO announcements from key players in the autonomous driving sector, such as Horizon Robotics and Pony.ai, indicate growing interest from capital markets [2][7][8]. - The industry is poised for a growth explosion after several years of development and accumulation [8]. Market Performance - From October 14 to 18, the automotive sector increased by 1.2%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.2 percentage points. Year-to-date, the automotive sector has risen by 8.1%, ranking 8th among 31 sectors [3][8]. - The retail sales of passenger vehicles from October 1 to 13 reached 823,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20%, while new energy passenger vehicle sales grew by 64% [21][22]. - The wholesale sales of passenger vehicles during the same period were 713,000 units, also reflecting a 20% year-on-year increase [21][22]. Key Industry Data - In September, total automotive sales were 2.809 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 14.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. Cumulatively, from January to September, sales reached 21.571 million units, a 2.4% year-on-year increase [24][25]. - The inventory level of automotive dealers was at a warning level, with a comprehensive inventory coefficient of 1.29 in September, reflecting an 11.2% month-on-month increase [25]. - Exports in September reached 539,000 units, marking a 21.4% year-on-year increase [25]. Industry News - The 2024 Paris Auto Show featured a strong presence of Chinese automotive brands, showcasing new models and innovations [43]. - The upcoming launch of the Avita 12, a high-end range-extended electric vehicle, is set for the fourth quarter [44]. - Huawei announced plans for its ADS 4.0 system, aiming for commercial use of L3 autonomous driving by 2025 [48].

华福证券 春风动力（603129.SH） 24Q3 点评：Q3 业绩再超预期，期待新品催化 事件：公司发布 24Q3 业绩，前三季度实现营收 114.50 亿元，同比+21.98%； 归母净利润为 10.81 亿元，同比+34.87%；扣非归母净利润 10.50 亿元，同 比+36.74%。单季度来看，24Q3 营收 39.21 亿元，同比+36.11%；归母净利 润为 3.73 亿元，同比+48.95%；扣非归母净利润 3.63 亿元，同比+46.62%。 四轮车：低基数下实现明显修复，看好新品持续贡献增量 根据摩托车协会数据，7-8 月公司四轮沙滩车出货量 2.98 万台， 同比+28%，8 月公司发布重磅 U/Z 系列全地形车新品，产品配置升级、 产品力大幅提升，有望带动四轮车产品结构优化、盈利能力改善。 燃油两轮：内销旺季保持高景气，出口增速略有放缓 根据摩托车协会数据，7-8 月公司燃油摩托车销量 4.18 万台，同 比+55%，>250cc 销量 2.5 万台，同比+58%。出口方面，7-8 月公司摩 托车出口量 1.38 万台，同比+12%，Q3 摩托车出口增速放缓，预计主 要受欧洲产品标准切换 ...

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary 宏 观 研 究 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_R eportD ate 宏观定期研究 2024 年 10 月 20 日 一周综评与展望： \九月经济数据出炉， 行业名 静待政策发力 投资要点： 本周有三方面值得重点关注。 一是九月经济数据密集发布，三季度部分数据承压，但是9月开始数据 边际好转。10月18日国家统计局公发布三季度经济数据。前三季度国内生 产总值同比增长4.1%；按不变价格计算，前三季度GDP同比增长4.8%。 工业方面仍然承压，但边际好转： 9月份PPI同比下降2.8%，环比下降 0.6%，但9月规模以上工业增加值同比实际增速较8月份加快0.9个百分点。 随着一系列消费刺激政策，消费增速有望提升：9月社会消费品零售总额同 比增长3.2%，CPI同比上涨0.4%，环比持平。投资端等待进一步政策落地： 9月全国固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长3.3%，增速较8月有所提升； 9月末社会融资规模同比增长8%； M2同比增长6.8%，M1同比下降7.4%。 贸易方面，中国 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the long-term certainty of the US economy is characterized by rising inflation and interest rate levels, while the structure of inflation and economic policy choices post-election remain uncertain [1][7]. - A series of economic policies in China may help the economy escape the deflationary cycle, with future economic recovery being primarily influenced by US economic policies. The internal economic structure is showing a trend of improvement, and the supply patterns in most industries are stabilizing [1][10]. - Globalization and self-sufficiency are identified as crucial economic development strategies for China, with both elements progressing in a complementary manner [1][10]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the US retail sales in September exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, while core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) rose by 0.7% [7][8]. - In China, the total retail sales in September showed a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, a significant increase from the previous value of 2.1%, with most retail categories experiencing improved growth rates [10][14]. - The report notes that the M2-M1 differential continues to rise, reaching a historical high, driven by an increase in M2, indicating a stabilization in corporate deposits [10][12]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the technology sector continues to lead the market, with the STAR 50 index experiencing a substantial increase of 8.87% [17][18]. - The report suggests that the trading characteristics of growth stocks are exhibiting a "dumbbell" structure, influenced by capital inflows and the emergence of ETFs as a new entry path into the market [1][22]. - The report identifies semiconductor equipment, automotive lithium batteries, and renewable energy as core assets to be optimistic about in the long term [1].

华福证券 家用电器 以旧换新补贴快速消耗，9 月份家电零售超预期 ——24W42 周观点 投资要点： 家用电器 2024 年 10 月 20 日 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 分析师： 谢丽媛(S0210524040004) xly30495@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、双 11 专题（1）：各平台玩法公布，以旧换新 +大促优惠，有望提振家电内需——24W41 周观 点——2024.10.13 2、促消费政策密集落地，国庆出行数据亮眼—— 24W40 周观点——2024.10.07 3、10 月空冰洗排产亮眼：内销受益以旧换新， 外销增长韧性超预期——24W39 周观点—— 2024.09.29 本周家电板块涨跌幅 0.0%，其中白电/黑电/小家电/厨电板块涨跌 幅分别-1.9%/+16.2%/-0.1%/+3.7%。原材料价格方面，LME 铜、LME 铝环比上周分别-1.29%、-3.48%。 本周纺织服装板块涨跌幅+0.97%，其中纺织制造涨跌幅+0.75%， 服装家纺涨跌幅+0.57%。本周 328 级棉现货 15430 元/吨（-0.72%）， 美棉 Cotlook ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that significant domestic innovative drugs are expected to benefit from the upcoming national negotiations, with a focus on accelerating volume growth after entering the medical insurance directory [2][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming national medical insurance negotiations, which are expected to conclude in November 2024, potentially leading to increased policy support for innovative drugs [17][15]. - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical sector is entering a new phase characterized by innovation, recovery, and supportive policies, with a focus on companies that can leverage these trends for growth [3][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Mid-term Investment Strategy and Recommended Focus - The report suggests gradually increasing allocations to the pharmaceutical sector, anticipating excess returns post semi-annual reports [11]. - Key policies for 2024 include the comprehensive promotion of DRG/DIP, adjustments to essential drug lists, and enhanced efficiency assessments for state-owned enterprises [11]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: adjusting existing stock (aging population and import substitution), seeking new growth (international expansion and major products), and capturing variables (state-owned enterprise reform) [11]. 2. Upcoming National Negotiations: Heavyweight Domestic Innovative Drugs Expected to Accelerate Volume Growth - The report outlines that the national medical insurance directory adjustment process began on July 1, 2024, with negotiations expected to conclude in November [15]. - It notes that 244 drugs outside the directory and 196 drugs within the directory have passed preliminary reviews, indicating an increase in the number of drugs submitted compared to 2023 [15]. - The report highlights specific companies like Kangfang Biotech and Yunding New Medicine, which are expected to benefit significantly from the negotiations [18][23]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Hotspot Tracking (October 14-18, 2024) - The report states that the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 0.9% during the week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.1 percentage points [32]. - It mentions that the pharmaceutical sector has seen a decline of 10.3% year-to-date, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 24.7 percentage points [32]. - The report identifies top-performing stocks for the week, including Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical (+60.97%) and Changshan Pharmaceutical (+49.75%) [2]. 4. Recommended Focus for October - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, Kangfang Biotech, and Yunding New Medicine, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [3][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights clear policy guidance and sustained improvement expectations for the food and beverage industry, despite economic fluctuations affecting consumer levels and brand integrity due to food safety risks and raw material cost volatility [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring quarterly performance reports and long-term goals of major liquor companies, particularly in the context of favorable consumption policies [7]. Summary by Category 1. Baijiu (Chinese liquor) - The report is optimistic about the baijiu sector, driven by favorable consumption policies and positive expectations, recommending attention to companies like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Moutai [7]. 2. Beer - The beer sector is expected to see stable sales in 2024, with growth primarily from high-end products. Key recommendations include Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer, with a focus on companies with lower institutional holdings [8][10]. 3. Soft Drinks - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong performance such as Huanlejia and Yangyuan Beverage, as well as those with stable dividends like Yangyuan Drink [10]. 4. Ready-to-Drink Alcohol - The report identifies Bairun as a leading company in the ready-to-drink alcohol sector, suggesting it is suitable for left-side positioning due to its rapid market expansion [11][13]. 5. Dairy Products - Yili is highlighted as a key player in the dairy sector, with a focus on profit-oriented strategies and product structure optimization [12]. 6. Snack Foods - Recommendations include Qiaqia Food for its cost advantages and Three Squirrels for its clear incentive goals and strong performance [14]. 7. Seasonings & Catering - Anqi Yeast is recommended for its strong domestic demand and overseas growth potential, while Anjuke Food is noted for its resilience in the catering supply chain [18]. 8. Bakery - The report recommends Huirong Technology for its high profit growth and overseas expansion potential, along with Lihai Food and Nanjiao Food [21]. 9. Catering - Key recommendations include Tongqinglou for its synergistic development in catering and food, and Haidilao for its strong performance during the National Day holiday [22][24]. 10. Sugar Alternatives - The report suggests focusing on companies like Rhein Biotech and Huakang for their strong market positions in natural sweeteners [24]. 11. Gold and Jewelry - Recommendations include Chaohongji for its dual growth in products and channels, and Zhou Daxing for its high dividend yield [25]. 12. Pet Products - The report highlights Zhongchong and Guibao Pet for their strong brand presence and overseas business recovery [26][28].