Group 1 - The report indicates that the current economic policies between China and the US are highly uncertain, suggesting that this may not be the optimal window for recovery or liquidity trading [3][4][5] - Long-term trends suggest an expansion in the service sector while traditional manufacturing may contract, with initiatives like "self-control" and the Belt and Road Initiative expected to accelerate [3][4] - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on central state-owned enterprises, the Belt and Road Initiative, O2O (Online to Offline), semiconductor equipment, and military industry, while mid-term attention is directed towards AI applications [3][4] Group 2 - In October, industrial enterprises exhibited a simultaneous decline in both volume and price, with industrial added value year-on-year at 5.3%, down 0.1 percentage points, and PPI year-on-year at -2.9%, also down 0.1 percentage points [10][11] - The mining sector's prices have significantly declined due to overseas commodity price influences, while the upstream raw material processing industry shows a mixed performance with reduced volume but increased prices in non-ferrous smelting and pharmaceutical manufacturing [10][11] - The report highlights that the overall PPI drag from downstream consumer prices is relatively light, with a notable decline in the growth rate of public utility industrial added value [10][11] Group 3 - The market review indicates a divergence in market performance, with defensive strategies currently favored [12][21] - The broad market indices experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.91%, and the ChiNext, CSI 300, and SSE 50 showing deeper losses [14][15] - From an industry perspective, cyclical sectors experienced relatively minor declines, while technology, consumption, financial real estate, and medical healthcare sectors faced deeper losses [21][22] Group 4 - The report notes that foreign capital futures positions are showing divergence, with net short positions in IC and IM converging while IF and IH remain stable [30][34] - The upcoming week is expected to focus on the US PCE price index and China's PMI, which are critical indicators for market sentiment [35][36]

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 行 业 研 究 日 行 业 定 期 研 究 有色金属行业周报（11.18-11.24） 有色金属 2024 年 11 月 24 日 强于大市(维持评级) 地缘局势再度紧张，周内金价明显走强 投资要点： ➢ 贵金属：地缘局势再度紧张，周内金价明显走强。特朗普赢得美 国大选，市场担心特朗普提议的关税和移民可能会重新引发通胀，周 内随地缘局势再度紧张，俄罗斯发射洲际弹道导弹，朝鲜军队提升至 战备状态，避险情绪提振周内金价大涨。从经济层面来看，美国11月 费城联储制造业指数-5.5，低于预期的8，前值10.3。短期来看，特朗 普交易仍未完全消退，市场对未来经济滞涨担忧仍在，预计贵金属价 格震荡为主；中长期角度来看，全球主要经济体货币政策方向明确， 东欧及朝鲜半岛等地缘冲突仍将凸显贵金属避险属性，贵金属中长期 配置价值不改。个股：黄金建议关注中金黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄 金、赤峰黄金，低估弹性关注株冶集团和玉龙股份，其他关注银泰黄 金、湖南黄金及招金矿业；白银建议关注兴业银锡、银泰黄金、盛达 资源。 ➢ 工业金属：宏观扰动加剧波动，供需紧缺支撑氧化铝价格 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Insights - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 3663.52 points, down 0.17% week-on-week. Among six sub-industries, the semiconductor materials index fell by 3.08%, while the organic silicon materials index rose by 1.07% [1][11] - The global foldable smartphone market is expected to grow by 22% year-on-year in 2024, significantly outpacing the overall smartphone market growth of 5.8%. This growth is driven by improvements in design, durability, and functionality, despite high average prices [2][36] - Shanghai Pulit has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Guangzhou Lianmao and Shanghai Lunai New Materials to develop and mass-produce LCP film products for applications in electronic communications, AI servers, and new energy vehicles [2][33] Summary by Sections Overall Market Review - The Wind New Materials Index and various sub-indices experienced fluctuations, with notable declines in semiconductor and display device materials indices, while organic silicon and lithium battery indices showed slight increases [1][11] Key Company Weekly Review - Top gainers included Aok Shares (30.8%), Pulit (22.44%), and Silicon Treasure (17.96%), while top losers included Blue Sky Technology (-9.16%) and Shandong Heda (-8.65%) [28][30] Recent Industry Hotspots - Pulit signed a cooperation agreement for LCP film production [33] - Chemical giants Solvay and SABIC announced capacity expansions for polyphenylsulfone and ULTEM™ resin, respectively, to meet growing demand in various sectors [34] - Jiurich New Materials has commenced trial production of a new photolithography resin project with an annual capacity of 4500 tons [33]

华福证券 行业研 国防军工 军工本周观点：准备反攻 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 本周，国防军工指数下跌 2.78% ，同期沪深 300 指数下跌 2.6%，相对超 额-0.18pct，接连上周继续呈现回调状态，但整体走向趋于相对平稳，我们 仍旧维持上周观点，军工板块投资逻辑将从主题热度转为基本面驱动阶段， 后续静待行业需求传导落地。 细分主题领域，本周中国航空运输协会通航业务部、无人机工作委员会主 任孙卫国在论坛上透露，中央空管委即将在合肥、杭州、深圳、苏州、成 都、重庆六个城市开展 eVTOL 试点，我们认为，试点城市的确立或会加速 带动相关项目落地，看好后续低空经济细分板块表现。 资金层面，本周融资买入额相较上周有所降低，表明短期杠杆类资金对军 工行业偏好热度略有下降；被动资金也呈现小幅净流出情况，但考虑到军 工行业 2024Q4-2025 的强需求恢复预期，后续不排除重现融资买入额上升 及被动资金净流入趋势的可能。 估值层面，截至 11 月 22 日，申万军工指数五年维度看，当前市盈率 TTM （剔除负值）59.9 倍，分位数 77.56%，尽管现估值分位数处于十四五时期 以来偏高水平，但考虑到三季报披 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" for the next 6-12 months, indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% [20]. Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is experiencing strong sales driven by policy incentives, with a notable increase in retail and wholesale figures for passenger vehicles in November [2][3]. - The report emphasizes a short-term focus on automotive parts companies with robotics layouts and a long-term outlook on complete vehicle manufacturers [2][3]. - The report suggests that the market sentiment peaked post-Guangzhou Auto Show but remains optimistic due to strong sales data, indicating limited adjustment space [2][3]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The automotive index fell by 2.2% this week, ranking 20th out of 31 sectors [2]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.106 million units from November 1-17, a year-on-year increase of 30% [2]. - Wholesale figures for passenger vehicles were 1.271 million units, up 37% year-on-year [2]. Industry Changes - Over 2 million applications for vehicle scrappage and replacement subsidies have been submitted as of November 18 [2]. - Tesla's Optimus robot is projected to be priced between $20,000 and $30,000, with an annual production target exceeding 1 million units [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, Seres, Li Auto, and BYD for their strong fundamentals and potential for significant trading opportunities [3][4]. - For automotive parts, focus on companies with robotics initiatives, as the market for autonomous driving is expected to expand significantly by 2025 [3][11]. Strategy and Focus - The report advises prioritizing leading vehicle manufacturers and automotive parts companies involved in robotics [4]. - The anticipated growth in the autonomous driving sector and the introduction of Tesla's robots are seen as catalysts for investment opportunities [3][10].

电子 2024 年 11 月 24 日 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 分析师： 陈海进(S0210524060003) chj30590@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 徐巡(S0210524060004) xx30511@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 谢文嘉(S0210124040078) xwj30510@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 李雅文(S0210124040076) lyw30508@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、Rokid 发布 AR 眼镜，华为 Mate 系列将于下周 上市——消费电子系列跟踪——2024.11.23 2、维谛展望 MW 级 GPU 机柜，打开互联、散热 技术想象空间-海外科技周跟踪——2024.11.23 3、ChatGPT周访问量突破9 亿，"精度感知"Scaling Law 再引关注-算力周跟踪——2024.11.20 华福证券 电子 重申自主可控，关注国产替代新动态-半导体周跟 踪 投资要点： 四大指数涨跌互现。（1）全行业指数：本周（1118-1122）申万半导 体指数/恒生科技指数继续下行，分别-0.34%/-2.2%，费 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [5]. Core Insights - The cancellation of ordinary residential standards in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is expected to reduce transaction costs in the second-hand housing market, leading to a recovery in sales [1][2]. - The current market recovery is anticipated to progress through phases of alleviated liquidity pressure, continued supply contraction, stabilization of housing prices, and a resurgence in sales and construction activities [2]. Sales Review (11.17-11.23) - A total of 22,000 new homes were sold across 34 monitored cities, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6%. Cumulatively, 807,000 homes have been sold in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 26.4% [3][13]. - Sales in first-tier cities reached 7,166 units, up 2.5% from the previous week, while second-tier cities saw sales of 12,569 units, an increase of 18.7%. In contrast, third-tier cities experienced a decline of 33.2%, with sales of 1,882 units [3][14]. Land Supply (11.10-11.16) - The planned construction area for residential land across 100 cities was 2,257 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 34,908 million square meters in 2024, down 33.1% year-on-year. The supply-demand ratio stands at 1.59 [34][35]. - The average land listing price across 100 cities was 3,444 yuan per square meter, with a recent four-week average of 4,673 yuan per square meter, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 11.3% but a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [37][38]. Land Transactions (11.10-11.16) - The total planned construction area for residential land transactions was 1,124 million square meters, with a cumulative total of 21,935 million square meters in 2024, down 23.9% year-on-year [51][54]. - The average transaction price for residential land across 100 cities was 6,309 yuan per square meter, showing a slight decrease of 0.4% week-on-week but a significant year-on-year increase of 53.7% [54][55].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" relative to the market, maintaining this rating for the next year [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates that while there are short-term pressures on volume and price in the liquor sector, the long-term outlook remains positive, with potential for valuation recovery if fiscal policies exceed expectations [12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting individual stocks with strong growth potential within the beverage sector, particularly in high-end products and innovative categories [17][19]. Summary by Category Liquor - Short-term volume and price pressures are expected, with overall demand remaining subdued. The report anticipates that Q4 and the beginning of the new year will continue to face challenges, but a turning point may be on the horizon due to collective pressure release in Q3 [10][12]. - Recommended stocks include Moutai, Wuliangye, and others, with a focus on maintaining core product prices [12]. Beer - The beer sector is projected to see stable sales in 2024, with growth driven by high-end product strategies. Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer are highlighted as key recommendations [16][15]. Soft Drinks - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in functional beverages, such as Dongpeng Beverage, and those with positive fundamentals like Xiangpiaopiao [19][17]. Ready-to-Drink Alcohol - The ready-to-drink alcohol sector is expected to grow steadily, with Baijiu Holdings recommended as a leading player due to its strong market position and upcoming product launches [21]. Dairy Products - The report recommends Yili Group, emphasizing its focus on profit margins and product structure optimization [23][22]. Snacks - Companies like Three Squirrels and Jin Zai Food are highlighted for their growth potential in emerging channels and new product launches [37][34]. Seasoning & Catering - Anqi Yeast and Zhongju Gaoxin are recommended for their strong domestic performance and overseas growth potential, with expectations for improved profitability in Q4 [30][31]. Baking Supply Chain - Hai Rong Technology is recommended for its overseas expansion plans and expected growth in 2024 [33]. Sugar Alternatives - Companies like Rhein Biotech and Huakang are suggested for their strong market positions in natural sweeteners, which are expected to see increased demand [39]. Catering - Recommendations include Tongqinglou and Yum China, focusing on their collaborative growth strategies and innovative supply chains [42][40]. Pet Industry - Companies like Zhongchong and Petty are highlighted for their strong export performance and market positioning [45][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [4] Core Views - The report highlights significant price increases in folic acid, with a weekly rise of approximately 60%, driven by supply constraints and low inventory levels among distributors [1] - The commencement of the second phase of the Gule Refining and Chemical Integration Project, with a total investment of 71.1 billion yuan, is expected to enhance the industrial chain and promote high-end, intelligent, and green development in the petrochemical sector [1] - The report identifies several investment themes, including the competitiveness of domestic tire manufacturers, the potential recovery in consumer electronics, and the resilience of certain cyclical industries [2][3][5] Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Sector Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.91%, while the basic chemical index decreased by 0.47% this week [16] - The top-performing sub-industries included viscose (up 8.81%) and membrane materials (up 4.6%), while the worst performers included nylon (-3.42%) and coatings (-3.29%) [18] 2. Key Industry Dynamics - Folic acid prices surged, with current market quotes rising to 380-400 yuan/kg, compared to 200 yuan/kg the previous week [1] - The Gule Refining and Chemical Integration Project is set to provide 5 million tons of raw materials annually upon completion in 2030 [1] 3. Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Domestic tire manufacturers are becoming increasingly competitive, with companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire recommended for attention [5] - Investment Theme 2: The consumer electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, with upstream material companies like Dongcai Technology and Stik highlighted as potential beneficiaries [2] - Investment Theme 3: The phosphorous chemical industry is tightening due to environmental policies, with companies like Yuntianhua and Chuanheng Co. recommended [3] - Investment Theme 4: Leading chemical companies are expected to benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence, with firms like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng suggested for investment [5] - Investment Theme 5: Supply disruptions in vitamin products, particularly vitamins A and E, are creating investment opportunities in companies like Zhejiang Medicine [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent drop in coal prices is not a cause for pessimism, as demand is expected to stabilize with the onset of colder weather and increased electricity consumption [2]. - The coal supply is under pressure due to strict capacity controls and environmental regulations, leading to a potential long-term scarcity of resources [2]. - The report suggests that coal remains a critical energy source, with resilient demand expected despite macroeconomic challenges and the growth of renewable energy [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 0.88%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.72 percentage points [14]. - Year-to-date, the coal index has increased by 3.08%, while the Shanghai Composite has risen by 12.67% [14]. 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of November 22, 2024, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 824 CNY/ton, down 13 CNY/ton week-on-week [27]. - The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 84.2%, reflecting a slight increase [27]. 2.2 Annual Long-term Contract Prices - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 699 CNY/ton, unchanged month-on-month but down 14 CNY/ton year-on-year [29]. 2.3 Spot Prices - Domestic coal prices have seen minor declines, with the Inner Mongolia price at 697 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton week-on-week [33]. - The price for Shanxi weakly sticky coal is 700 CNY/ton, down 7 CNY/ton week-on-week [33]. 2.4 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 2.4.1 Supply - The operating rate of coal mines in the three provinces is 84.2%, with Inner Mongolia at 91.2% and Shaanxi at 92.3% [51]. 2.4.2 Demand - Daily coal consumption by six major power plants increased to 81.4 million tons, up 5 million tons week-on-week [53]. 2.4.3 Inventory Management - The inventory of coal production enterprises is 14.048 million tons, down 3.2 million tons week-on-week [71]. 3. Coking Coal - The price for coking coal remains stable, with the main coking coal price at 1640 CNY/ton as of November 22, 2024 [2]. - The report indicates that coking coal prices are expected to remain stable due to policy support and slight increases in production rates [2]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [2]. - Companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration and those with production growth potential are also highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [2].