Monetary Policy Changes - The central bank will implement a revised narrow money (M1) statistical caliber starting January 2025, which will include personal demand deposits and customer reserve funds from non-bank payment institutions[1] - The adjustment aims to reflect the liquidity of personal demand deposits and non-bank payment reserves, aligning them with the characteristics of demand deposits[1] Global Political Instability - South Korea's political situation is tense, with President Yoon Suk-yeol declaring a state of emergency due to budget disputes, which was later revoked by the National Assembly[2] - France's National Assembly successfully passed a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Barnier, marking the first successful no-confidence vote since 1962, leading to significant political instability[2] - Germany faces political turmoil as Finance Minister Lindner was dismissed, contributing to the potential collapse of the coalition government, impacting the economic outlook for Europe[2] U.S. Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, surpassing both expectations and the previous month's rate of 4.1%[2] - The strong job growth alongside rising unemployment has increased market speculation regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include geopolitical instability exceeding expectations, economic data falling short of forecasts, and significant fluctuations in overseas markets[3]

Economic Growth and Resilience - China's GDP in the first three quarters of 2024 reached 95 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, maintaining a high growth level globally[11] - The IMF predicts that China's economy will continue to show strong resilience and high growth rates in 2025, contributing significantly to global economic growth[11] Inflation and Price Trends - In 2024, China's CPI increased by an average of 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from 2023, while PPI decreased by 2.1%, narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to 2023[12] - With the implementation of macro policies, China's economy is expected to exit the price contraction zone in 2025[12] New Quality Productivity and Economic Transformation - High-tech industry investment grew by 9.3% in the first 10 months of 2024, with high-tech manufacturing and services investment growing faster than overall fixed asset investment[13] - The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.1% year-on-year in 2024, significantly higher than the overall industrial growth rate[13] Economic Structural Optimization - The service sector accounted for 55.9% of GDP in the first three quarters of 2024, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year[18] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 82.5% to GDP growth in 2023, the highest since 2000[18] Domestic Demand and Investment - Social retail sales grew by 3.5% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2024, with a notable increase to 4.8% in October[19] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.4% in the first 10 months of 2024, with equipment and tool investment growing by 16.1%[20] Real Estate Market Stabilization - The real estate market showed signs of recovery in Q3 2024, with new commercial housing sales area improving significantly in October and November[23] - Policy measures, including tax incentives and financial support, are expected to further stabilize the real estate market in 2025[24] Risk Factors - Geopolitical risks, macroeconomic underperformance, and significant fluctuations in overseas markets are key risks to watch[25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [1] Core Insights - The cumulative number of railway passengers sent in China exceeded 4 billion for the first time, reaching a historical high of 4.008 billion from January to November 2024. This indicates the increasing importance of railway passenger transport [3] - The operational mileage of railways has continued to grow, with a target of reaching 200,000 kilometers by 2035, creating vast market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry [3] - The "Jing-Dian·Lan-Mei Line" international freight train service between China and Laos has begun regular operations, enhancing cross-border trade and logistics [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Passenger Transport Performance - From January to November 2024, the total number of railway passengers reached 4.008 billion, marking a significant increase and establishing China's railway passenger transport as a global leader [3] - The railway operating mileage surpassed 160,000 kilometers, with high-speed rail accounting for over 46,000 kilometers, covering 99% of cities with populations over 200,000 [3] Market Opportunities - The State Council's "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for railway operating mileage to reach 165,000 kilometers by 2025, with high-speed rail reaching 50,000 kilometers. By 2035, the goal is to expand the railway network to approximately 200,000 kilometers, including 70,000 kilometers of high-speed rail [3] - Achieving these long-term targets is expected to create significant market space for the rail transit equipment industry [3] Recommended Companies - China CNR Corporation: A global leader in rail transit equipment, maintaining the top position in revenue [3] - China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation: A leading provider of rail transit control systems [3] - Times Electric: A leading supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [3] - Sifang Control: A core supplier in the field of high-speed rail comprehensive monitoring [3] - Shenzhou High-speed Railway: A leading enterprise in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit [3] - Huizhong Technology: Provides integrated solutions for rail transit operation and maintenance [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects and market position [3][5] Core Views - The company has signed a 7-year exclusive distribution agreement with A Menarini Diagnostics S r l to distribute its first and second-generation CGM products in over 20 European countries and regions under a co-branding arrangement [1] - The European CGM market is the second largest globally, with a projected CAGR of 20 6% from 2020 to 2030, reaching USD 7 8 billion by 2030 [2] - The company is making progress in product improvements and FDA registration for the US market, which could further enhance its market share [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 4 32 billion in 2024 to CNY 5 93 billion in 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 6%, 15%, and 19% respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from CNY 330 million in 2024 to CNY 635 million in 2026, with growth rates of 16%, 55%, and 24% respectively [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from CNY 0 59 in 2024 to CNY 1 13 in 2026 [3] Market and Industry Analysis - The European CGM market is expected to grow significantly, providing a substantial opportunity for the company to expand its presence through the new distribution agreement [2] - The company's CGM products are well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand in Europe, leveraging the strong distribution network of A Menarini Diagnostics [1][2] Product Development and Market Expansion - The company is continuously improving its product offerings, with next-generation products under review for enhanced user experience [2] - Efforts to enter the US market are ongoing, with FDA registration progressing, which could open up additional growth opportunities [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][42]. Core Insights - OpenAI announced a 12-day live streaming event to showcase various new technologies, including the launch of the o1 model and the new ChatGPT Pro subscription plan [2][21]. - The o1 model is designed to excel in programming, mathematics, and writing, with improved response speed and the ability to process visual data [2][23]. - The o1 Pro version, available through a $200/month subscription, outperforms previous versions in benchmarks related to mathematics, science, and programming [2][26]. - OpenAI introduced a fine-tuning feature that allows users to create expert models with minimal data, achieving an 80% score improvement over the o1 model [2][28]. Summary by Sections OpenAI Live Streaming Event - OpenAI's live streaming event consists of 12 sessions, starting on December 4, 2024, to introduce new products and features [2][21]. - The first day featured the launch of the o1 model and the ChatGPT Pro subscription plan [2][23]. AI Application Updates - During the period from November 29 to December 5, 2024, the download volumes for ChatGPT and Gemini remained stable at approximately 1.6 to 1.7 million and 600,000 to 650,000 per day, respectively [2][31]. - Domestic applications such as Doubao, Xinghuo, Wenxin Yiyan, and Tongyi maintained stable download volumes, while Kimi's downloads dropped to around 750,000 per day [2][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The traditional peak season is approaching, with a focus on inventory preparation and sales improvement [1]. - The report highlights various segments within the food and beverage industry, recommending specific companies based on their growth potential and market positioning [1]. Summary by Segment Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) - The baijiu sector is expected to face pressure in Q4 and the beginning of the new year, with companies actively maintaining core product prices [1][12]. - Recommended companies include Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [1]. Beer - The report recommends Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer, focusing on high-end products and efficiency reforms [15]. - The beer market is expected to see stable sales growth, driven by structural upgrades [15]. Soft Drinks - Key recommendations include Dongpeng Beverage and Xiangpiaopiao, with a focus on companies showing recovery potential [16][17]. Pre-mixed Drinks - The report highlights the growth potential of the pre-mixed drinks sector, recommending Bairun Co., which is expected to benefit from its upcoming whiskey launch [18][19]. Dairy Products - Yili is recommended for its clear profit orientation and product structure optimization [21]. Snack Foods - Companies like Three Squirrels and Jin Zai Food are highlighted for their growth potential in emerging channels [22][23]. Seasonings & Catering - Recommended companies include Angel Yeast and Zhongju High-tech, with expectations of strong performance in the upcoming peak season [27][28]. Baking Supply Chain - Hai Rong Technology is recommended for its overseas expansion potential and growth confidence [30]. Health Products & Sugar Alternatives - The health products sector is expected to grow, driven by both the elderly and younger generations [31][32]. - Recommendations include Tong Ren Tang and Baihe Co. for their strong market positions [32]. Catering - Companies like Haidilao and Yum China are recommended for their innovative approaches and market positioning [36][38]. Pet Products - The report highlights the growth potential in the pet industry, recommending companies like Zhongchong Co. and Peidi Co. for their strong export performance [39][40]. Gold & Jewelry - Recommendations include Chao Hong Ji and Zhou Dazheng, focusing on their growth strategies and market positioning [43].

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 行 业 研 究 日 行 业 定 期 研 究 有色金属 2024 年 12 月 8 日 有色金属行业周报（12.2-12.8） 强于大市(维持评级) 中国央行 11 月增持黄金，安托法斯塔与江铜签 订 25 年长单 TC 投资要点： ➢ 贵金属：中国央行11月增持黄金，中长期配置价值不改。特朗普 赢得美国大选，市场担心特朗普提议的关税和移民可能会重新引发通 胀，周内金价弱势持稳。周中叙利亚局势升温，美国11月失业率和非 农数据表现超预期，12月降息预期升温。短期来看，特朗普交易仍未 完全消退，市场对未来经济滞涨担忧仍在，预计贵金属价格震荡为 主；中长期角度来看，全球主要经济体货币政策方向明确，东欧及朝 鲜半岛等地缘冲突仍将凸显贵金属避险属性，中国央行11月增持黄 金，贵金属中长期配置价值不改。个股：黄金建议关注中金黄金、紫 金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金，低估弹性关注株冶集团和玉龙股份， 其他关注银泰黄金、湖南黄金及招金矿业；白银建议关注兴业银锡、 银泰黄金、盛达资源。 ➢ 工业金属：Antofagasta与江西铜业确定2025年铜精矿长单TC/R ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Supporting the Innovative Development of New Business Entities in the Power Sector" is expected to promote the construction of a new power system [4][50] - Datang Tuoketuo Power Plant is transitioning from a single coal-fired power model to a diversified energy model, aiming to create a "future power plant" and "energy supermarket" [3][22] Summary by Sections Market Review - From December 2 to December 6, the environmental sector rose by 3.70%, the water sector by 2.35%, the power sector by 3.60%, and the gas sector fell by 0.15%, while the CSI 300 index increased by 2.60% [12][14] Industry Perspectives - The new business entities are crucial for constructing a new power system that accommodates a high proportion of renewable energy consumption. The challenges include insufficient renewable energy absorption capacity, lack of profitable models for new storage technologies, and increased supply pressure due to the instability of renewable energy [17][18] - The "Guiding Opinions" define new business entities, including distributed renewable energy and new storage technologies, and outline their roles in addressing supply, regulation, and absorption challenges [18][21] Company Announcements - Datang Tuoketuo Power Plant currently operates a total installed capacity of 8.73 million kW, with 6.72 million kW from coal, 1.70 million kW from wind, and 0.31 million kW from solar. In the first half of 2024, the plant's revenue reached 5.072 billion yuan, with a net profit of 680 million yuan [3][22][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the green energy sector such as Three Gorges Energy, while being cautious with Longyuan Power, Zhejiang New Energy, and Zhonglv Electric. In the hydropower sector, it recommends attention to Changjiang Electric Power and Qianyuan Electric, with caution advised for Guotou Power and Huaneng Hydropower [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Follow the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to be between -5% and 5% relative to the market benchmark index over the next 6 months [23]. Core Viewpoints - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a slight decline, with the Shenwan Semiconductor Index down by 0.25% during the week of December 2-7, while other indices like the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Index showed positive growth [2]. - The global semiconductor sales reached a record high in October 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, and a forecasted growth of 19.0% for the entire year, reaching a total of $626.9 billion [4]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. sanctions on Chinese semiconductor companies, with 140 firms added to the entity list, prompting a swift response from China to restrict exports of dual-use items to the U.S. [2][3]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Market Performance - The semiconductor sector's transaction volume accounted for 4.87% of the total A-share market, showing a decrease from the previous week [2]. - Various sub-sectors within the semiconductor industry showed mixed performance, with equipment and materials down by 3.11% and 1.32% respectively, while digital and analog chips saw increases of 0.33% and 2.96% [2]. Company Developments - NXP Semiconductors is expanding its manufacturing capabilities in China, with a new 12-inch wafer fab set to begin production in 2027, aiming to enhance its local supply chain [3]. - The report notes that the domestic semiconductor equipment companies are preparing for potential impacts from U.S. export controls, with most components already localized [9]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the domestic semiconductor market has significant growth potential, especially with the increasing demand for advanced process chips and local manufacturing initiatives [10]. - The anticipated growth in AI PC applications is expected to drive improvements in storage demand, particularly for NAND Flash products [6].

Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry is rated as "Outperform" relative to the market [5]. Core Insights - Lululemon's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue in mainland China growing by 39% year-on-year. The company achieved revenue of $2.4 billion in FY25Q3, a 9% increase year-on-year, slightly surpassing market expectations. North America and international revenues grew by 2% and 33% respectively, with international growth at 30% on a constant currency basis [2][12][21]. Summary by Sections Lululemon Q3 Performance - Lululemon's Q3 revenue reached $2.4 billion, up 9% year-on-year (8% on a constant currency basis), slightly above market expectations. Revenue from mainland China surged by 39% year-on-year (36% on a constant currency basis) [2][12]. - Same-store sales in North America declined by 2%, while international same-store sales increased by 25% (22% on a constant currency basis), with mainland China contributing 27% to this growth [12][21]. Market Data - The textile and apparel sector saw a weekly increase of 1.82%, with textile manufacturing down by 0.11% and apparel/home textiles up by 2.66%. The current spot price for 328-grade cotton is 15,196 yuan/ton, down 0.54%, while the Cotlook A price is 81.6 cents/pound, down 0.49% [3][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines in the textile and apparel sector: 1. Recovery in manufacturing exports with high visibility, recommending companies like Shenzhou International, Huafang Group, and Jian Sheng Group. 2. Anticipated growth in sports apparel driven by event marketing and new product launches, recommending 361 Degrees. 3. Favorable trends in overseas expansion and early entry into apparel brands, recommending Anta Sports, Kairun Co., and Semir Apparel [4][30][31].