华福证券 240902 日报：重庆住房出租后不纳入套数计算 投资要点： 板块表现： 9 月 2 日，沪深 300 指数下跌，房地产板块跌幅大于沪深 300。截 至收盘，沪深 300 指数下跌 1.70%，申万房地产指数下跌 2.7%。分板 块来看，住宅开发、商业地产、产业地产、物业管理分别下跌 2.7%、 2.8%、2.7%、2.6%。 个股表现： 截至收盘，房地产板块个股涨幅前五名为新湖中宝、华夏幸福、 粤宏远 A、万通发展、天地源，5.95%、2.86%、2.33%、1.44%、1.28%； 个股跌幅前五名为万业企业、上海临港、福星股份、万科 A、荣安地 产，-5.19%、-5.17%、-5.10%、-5.03%、-4.65%。 行业新闻： 重庆出租住房可不纳入住房套数计算。9 月 1 日，重庆市住房和 城乡建设委员会明确居民家庭申请商业性个人住房贷款购买商品住房 时，家庭成员在拟购住房所在区县无住房的，认定为首套房。居民将 重庆市内自有存量住房盘活用作租赁住房，且取得租赁合同备案证明 的，在重庆市购买住房时已出租的住房可不纳入家庭住房套数计算。 个股公告： 【陆家嘴丨募集资金到账】公司 2024 年 8 ...

华福证券 司 澳华内镜（688212.SH） 24 年半年报业绩点评：业绩符合预期，股权支付 费用影响表观利润 投资要点： 公司发布 2024 年半年报。 24H1 公司实现营收 3.54 亿（同比+22.3%），归母净利润 566 万 元（同比-85.1%），归母扣非净利润-135 万元（同比-104.6%）。 单 Q2 公司实现营收 1.84 亿元（同比+12.6%），归母净利润 290 万元（同比-86.5%），归母扣非净利润-110 万元（同比-106.3%）。 调整后毛利率较上年同期略有提升，归母净利波动主要系股份费用支 付影响。 受会计准则变化影响，公司将质保相关的维修费用与预提费用从销售 费用中离去，计入营业成本，公司 24H1 毛利率约 71.5%（较 23H1 调整后 口径同比提升 0.1pct）。 公司于 2022 年以及 2023 年分别进行了两轮股权激励，两轮归属期均 包含 2024 年，故股权激励费用对 24H1 表观利润影响较大，剔除股份支付 后的归母净利润为 4774 万元（同比+7.2%）。 研发持续投入，产品管线迈入肝胆外科及泌尿领域。 24H1 公司研发投入 8734 万元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Dongpeng Beverage [5][11] Core Views - Dongpeng Beverage has shown strong growth in its 2024 H1 performance, with revenue reaching 7.873 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.19%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.731 billion yuan, up 56.17% [2] - The company is experiencing a dual growth engine through regional expansion and new product launches, particularly with the "Dongpeng Water" product showing remarkable growth [3] - The company's gross margin improved due to a decrease in raw material costs, leading to a net profit margin increase of 3.72 percentage points to 24.29% [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects net profits of 3.006 billion yuan, 3.995 billion yuan, and 5.004 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 32, 24, and 19 [4][8] - Revenue is projected to grow from 11.263 billion yuan in 2023 to 25.296 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 26% [4][8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 5.10 yuan in 2023 to 12.51 yuan in 2026 [4][8] Product and Regional Performance - The core product, Dongpeng Special Drink, generated 6.855 billion yuan in revenue in 2024 H1, a 33.49% increase year-on-year, while the new product "Dongpeng Water" achieved revenue of 476 million yuan, up 281.12% [3] - Regional performance showed that the national area revenue reached 4.698 billion yuan, a 57.02% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in regions such as Central China and Southwest China [3]

司 में 风险提示：食品质量安全、大客户不及预期、主要原材料价格波动等 立高食品（300973.SZ） 冷冻烘焙阶段性调整，奶油放量需求向好 事件：公司披露 2024 年半年报，报告期内公司实现营收 17.81 亿元，同比 +8.88%；归母净利润 1.35 亿元，同比+25.03%；实现扣非归母净利润 1.25 亿元，同比+20.66%。24Q2 实现营收 8.65 亿元，同比+2.80%；归母净利润 0.59 亿元，同比+0.30%；扣非归母净利润 0.57 亿元，同比+3.50%。 稀奶油快速放量拉动奶油业务和流通渠道快增，冷冻烘焙阶段性承压 分产品看，24H1 公司冷冻烘焙食品/奶油/水果制品/酱料/其他烘焙原材料分别 实现营收 10.61/4.33/0.77/1.04/0.92 亿元，同比-0.15%/+82.74%/-14.06%/-2.88%/ -28.86%，其中稀奶油快速放量，销售收入超 2 亿元，拉动奶油整体收入高增， 冷冻烘焙整体表现稳定。分渠道看，24H1 公司经销/直销渠道分别实现营收 9.67/7.96 亿元，同比+10.45%/+7.19%。经销渠道中，流通渠道占整体收入占比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wuliangye [3][10]. Core Views - Wuliangye achieved total revenue of 50.648 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.057 billion yuan, up 11.86% year-on-year [1]. - The company successfully implemented a pricing strategy for its flagship product, "Pu Wuliang," resulting in stable prices and an upgrade in product mix, particularly with high-priced products [1]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 33.665 billion, 37.580 billion, and 41.564 billion yuan respectively, with a slight adjustment from previous estimates [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, Wuliangye's product revenue reached 39.205 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.45% [1]. - The sales volume and price per ton for Wuliangye products in H1 2024 increased by 12.07% and decreased by 0.56% respectively, leading to a slight decline in gross margin [1]. - The company reported a gross margin of 75.02% in Q2 2024, an increase of 1.74 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 32.82%, up 0.21 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Regional Performance - Revenue from different regions in H1 2024 showed varied growth, with the Eastern region achieving 13.552 billion yuan (up 15.70%), while the Southern region saw a slight decline of 0.58% [1]. Expense and Profitability Analysis - The overall expense ratio increased by 1.84 percentage points in H1 2024, primarily due to increased marketing investments [2]. - The report highlights that the sales expense ratio rose to 17.34%, reflecting a 1.97 percentage point increase year-on-year, driven by promotional activities [2].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - The U.S. has once again delayed the decision to impose 301 tariffs on Chinese products, which is expected to lead to a rebound in the stock prices of export companies [3][4] - The political and economic negotiations surrounding the tariffs are ongoing, indicating that there is still room for maneuver regarding the final tariff decisions [4] - The demand for Chinese goods in the U.S. remains strong, and imposing tariffs could lead to higher prices for American consumers and increased costs for businesses, potentially impacting the U.S. economy [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations - Many export companies are currently valued at the bottom, and a rebound in sentiment is anticipated following the U.S. elections and the finalization of tariff policies. The following companies are highlighted: - Engineering Machinery: Zhejiang Dingli (PE 11.4X), Sany Heavy Industry (PE 22.2X), XCMG (PE 11.4X) - General Equipment (Forklifts): Hangcha Group (PE 11.3X), Anhui Heli (PE 10.0X) - Specialized Equipment: Yindu Co. (PE 16.4X), Grebo (PE 19.7X) - Consumer Machinery: Juxing Technology (PE 15.0X), Ousheng Electric (PE 15.5X), Changrun Co. (PE 8.3X), Taotao Vehicle (PE 14.4X) [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [3] Core Insights - The shipping sector is experiencing a mixed performance with oil tanker rates declining significantly due to reduced cargo from the Middle East, while product tanker rates are rebounding in the Atlantic. The dry bulk market shows a divergence in performance among different vessel sizes, and the domestic shipping market in North China is seeing a recovery in rates [2][44] - The logistics supply chain sector is witnessing a recovery in express delivery volumes, particularly for leading companies like Zhongtong Express, while the chemical logistics sector remains attractive due to its valuation and potential for recovery [2][46] - The airline sector is optimizing management through the merger of subsidiaries, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and focus on domestic aircraft operations [2][47] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Market Review - The transportation index decreased by 0.73%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.56 percentage points [7] - Notable stock performances include Yunda Holdings (+11.1%) and Eastern Airlines Logistics (+8.4%) [15][16] - The industry valuation is currently at a relatively low level, with a PE (TTM) of 14.4 times [18][21] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking 2.1 Shipping Sector - The oil tanker market is facing oversupply, leading to a significant drop in rates, while the product tanker market shows mixed trends [23][25] - The dry bulk index (BDI) increased by 1.9% week-on-week, indicating stable demand for larger vessels [26] 2.2 Express Logistics - The express delivery volume for the week of August 19-25 saw a year-on-year increase of 27.7%, with a total of 3.305 billion packages collected [31][35] 2.3 Airline Sector - The daily passenger flight volume reached 15,972, recovering to 112% of 2019 levels for domestic flights [49] 3. Investment Strategies 3.1 Shipping Sector - The upcoming strike at East Coast ports may lead to increased shipping rates as cargo is preemptively shipped [44] - Recommended companies include COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [44] 3.2 Logistics Sector - Focus on leading express companies like Zhongtong Express and cross-border logistics firms such as Jiayou International for potential growth [46] 3.3 Airline Sector - The merger of Eastern Airlines and its subsidiary is expected to streamline operations and enhance efficiency [47] 3.4 Public Railway Sector - The transportation infrastructure sector is anticipated to see valuation improvements due to policy changes and a focus on high-dividend assets [49]

Investment Rating - The automotive sector is rated as "Buy" for leading companies in specific sub-sectors, with a focus on top players [15]. Core Insights - The automotive sector has shown a rebound, with the Shenwan Automotive Index rising by 2.67% and ranking 10th out of 31 sectors [2]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.305 million units from August 1-25, a year-on-year increase of 5%, while wholesale sales decreased by 2% [2]. - Key partnerships and developments include BYD's collaboration with Huawei for smart driving technology and the upcoming 2024 Chengdu Auto Show focusing on smart and electric vehicles [2][3]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The automotive sector experienced a rebound after a decline, with leading companies showing significant recovery as the market sentiment improved [2]. - The sector's basic fundamentals have bottomed out, with an increase in transaction volume and a positive outlook for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" sales period [2]. Industry Changes - Significant transactions include Seres Automotive's acquisition of a 10% stake in Shenzhen Yiwang Intelligent Technology for 11.5 billion yuan [2]. - BYD's new model, the Fangchengbao, will feature Huawei's ADS 3.0 technology, enhancing its smart driving capabilities [2]. Recommendations - Focus on leading companies in the automotive sector, particularly BYD and Jianghuai Automobile, which have shown strong performance and growth potential [2]. - For auto parts, attention should be given to leading companies and the marginal changes in the Tesla supply chain, as the auto parts sector has seen a 3.52% increase [2][3]. Investment Strategy - Emphasize investments in high-quality stocks at the bottom of their price range, while waiting for industry orders to materialize [8]. - Suggested stocks include BYD for vehicles and Fuyao Glass, Sanhua Intelligent Control, and Senki Lin for auto parts [3].

Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to stabilize, with a bias towards loose monetary policy, while global economic expectations remain stable. Long-term, the potential for interest rate cuts in the US may be limited[1] - Global manufacturing is in an upward cycle, and after the stabilization of the US economy, global manufacturing is likely to recover[1] - The macroeconomic environment overseas is similar to the first half of the year, but the overall improvement may be less than in the first half[1] China Economic Policy - China's economic policy is stable, with overall improvement dependent on exports. The structure of Chinese exports may shift towards capital goods and emerging market countries due to overseas interest rate cuts stimulating investment[1] - Key focus on whether exports can once again drive a recovery in domestic manufacturing, which in turn could stabilize real estate and consumption[1] - Data on industrial enterprises' "volume-price-profit" indicates that the Chinese manufacturing cycle may have fully bottomed out[1] Market Trends - The valuation of growth and value styles is becoming more balanced, with changes on the numerator side being more noteworthy. Marginal improvements on the demand side may guide the numerator side of the market[1] - Key sectors to watch include semiconductor equipment, domestic replacement leaders, banking, automotive lithium batteries, wind and solar exports, pharmaceuticals, engineering machinery, shipbuilding, copper smelting, aluminum processing, and traditional manufacturing leaders[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a recovery phase after a challenging period, with a focus on innovative drugs and key industry policies expected to stimulate growth [3][4] - The overall market for pharmaceuticals is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, presenting potential investment opportunities [10][19] Market Review - The pharmaceutical index has been under pressure, ranking seventh from the bottom among 30 sectors as of August 30, 2024, with a decline of 22.28% year-to-date [10] - Public fund holdings in pharmaceuticals decreased to 9.9% in Q2 2024, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a low level of investment in the sector [23] Subsector Summaries 1. **Chemical Pharmaceuticals** - Achieved revenue of 193.03 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, with net profit rising by 10.7% [4][65] - Q2 2024 revenue was 96.62 billion yuan, up 2.2%, and net profit increased by 20.6% [4][65] 2. **Biological Products** - Revenue for H1 2024 was 66.80 billion yuan, down 11%, with net profit declining by 29% [4][61] - Q2 2024 saw revenue of 32.75 billion yuan, a decrease of 17%, and net profit down 32% [4][61] 3. **Traditional Chinese Medicine** - H1 2024 revenue was 185.03 billion yuan, down 2.8%, with net profit decreasing by 5.6% [4][61] - Q2 2024 revenue was 86.40 billion yuan, down 5%, and net profit fell by 7% [4][61] 4. **Medical Devices** - H1 2024 revenue reached 123.92 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.5%, with net profit down 4.3% [4][61] - Q2 2024 revenue was 64.46 billion yuan, up 3.2%, with net profit down 3.6% [4][61] 5. **Healthcare Services** - H1 2024 revenue was 38.33 billion yuan, up 5.5%, with net profit increasing by 1.6% [6][61] - Q2 2024 revenue was 20.14 billion yuan, up 5%, and net profit increased by 8% [6][61] 6. **Pharmacy** - H1 2024 revenue was 57.72 billion yuan, up 8.1%, but net profit decreased by 16.8% [6][61] - Q2 2024 revenue was 28.04 billion yuan, up 4.7%, with net profit down 31.3% [6][61] 7. **Pharmaceutical Distribution** - H1 2024 revenue was 443.65 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.3%, with net profit down 4.7% [6][61] - Q2 2024 revenue was 217.83 billion yuan, down 1.6%, with net profit decreasing by 8.4% [6][61] 8. **Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients** - H1 2024 revenue was 62.83 billion yuan, up 3.5%, with net profit increasing by 15.6% [6][61] - Q2 2024 revenue was 31.81 billion yuan, up 7.5%, with net profit rising by 27.8% [6][61] 9. **Life Science Services** - H1 2024 revenue was 7.44 billion yuan, up 7.8%, but net profit fell by 20.9% [6][61] - Q2 2024 revenue was 3.91 billion yuan, up 12.1%, with net profit down 10.8% [6][61] 10. **CRO (Contract Research Organization)** - H1 2024 revenue was 45.82 billion yuan, down 9.4%, with net profit decreasing by 33.8% [6][61] - Q2 2024 revenue was 23.83 billion yuan, down 7.7%, with net profit down 29.8% [6][61] 11. **Innovative Drugs** - H1 2024 revenue was 20.25 billion yuan, up 46%, with net profit loss narrowing by 34% [6][61] - Q2 2024 revenue was 11.01 billion yuan, up 38%, with net profit loss narrowing by 43% [6][61]