Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [80]. Core Insights - Jianghuai Automobile and Huawei have deepened their strategic partnership, focusing on the integration of Huawei's intelligent automotive solutions into Jianghuai's vehicle platforms, enhancing AI applications across various operational scenarios [3][13]. - The first flagship luxury electric sedan, the Zun Jie S800, has commenced mass production, with significant pre-order success, indicating strong market demand [4][15]. - The automotive sector has experienced a decline of 2.6% from June 16 to June 20, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.1 percentage points, although it ranks 4th among 31 sectors year-to-date with a 5.1% increase [16][23]. Summary by Sections Strategic Cooperation - Jianghuai and Huawei signed a strategic cooperation agreement on June 17, 2025, to enhance the application of intelligent automotive solutions, including AI-driven features and clean energy initiatives [3][13]. - The Zun Jie S800 project, a result of this collaboration, has a dedicated team of over 5,000 and a newly built factory equipped with advanced automation technology [4][14]. Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance from June 16 to June 20, 2025, showed a decline of 2.6%, while the CSI 300 index fell by only 0.5%, highlighting the sector's underperformance [16]. - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has increased by 5.1%, ranking 4th among all sectors [16]. Sales Data - From June 1 to June 15, 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 706,000 units, a 20% increase year-on-year, while wholesale sales were 714,000 units, up 24% year-on-year [6][36]. - New energy vehicle retail sales during the same period were 402,000 units, reflecting a 38% year-on-year growth [6][36]. Production and Delivery Plans - The Zun Jie S800 is set for initial deliveries on June 26, 2025, with plans for mass production to reach 3,000 units per month by September and 4,000 units by year-end [4][15].

行 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 22 日 业 研 究 有色金属 20250622 周报：刚果（金）钴出口禁令延期，或 提振钴价上行 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：美国关税政策反复，黄金长期配置价值不改。近期多项美国 经济数据展现疲软态势，进一步加剧了市场对经济前景的担忧。经济数据 走弱将为美联储未来降息提供依据。根据钢联援引世界黄金协会调查数据， 全球73家央行中有76%预计未来五年将持续增持黄金以分散对美元资产的 依赖，凸显地缘因素及美元信用下滑背景下央行购金意愿。短期而言，美 "对等关税"的潜在风险及不确定性引发市场避险情绪支撑金价，整体呈 现易涨难跌格局；中长期而言，全球关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景 下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易的核心，长期配置价值不改。个股：黄 金建议关注中金黄金、山东黄金、赤峰黄金，低估弹性关注株冶集团，其 他关注湖南黄金及招金矿业；白银建议关注兴业银锡、盛达资源。 分析师： 王保庆(S0210522090001) WBQ3918@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、地缘危机与美联储降息预期共振，黄金走强— —2025.06.14 2、美对华上调钢铁和铝关 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the recent intensive disclosure period for convertible bond rating adjustments, indicating that if ratings are downgraded, selling pressure on individual bonds may increase. However, after the adjustment period, if the credit quality of bonds not downgraded shows improvement for 2025, it could support a rise in bond prices [2][11] - A convertible bond credit scoring model has been constructed to track changes in credit conditions for Q1 2025, allowing for the observation of marginal optimizations in financial indicators and credit quality across individual bonds and industries [2][12] - The credit scoring model includes six dimensions: scale level, operational capability, profitability, economic conditions, leverage level, and profitability, with scores reflecting the relative strength of fundamentals among sampled entities [3][12] Group 2 - The report identifies the top five industries with weakened credit conditions as coal, light manufacturing, automotive, transportation, and household appliances, while the top five industries with improved credit conditions are agriculture, non-bank financials, oil and petrochemicals, media, and computers [3][12] - Specific examples from the model show that the coal industry has weakened in terms of debt repayment ability, economic conditions, and leverage, while the agriculture sector has shown improvements in economic conditions, profitability, and debt repayment ability [3][12] - The report suggests a credit digging strategy based on the model's results, indicating that bonds priced between 100 to 120 yuan have shown varying credit score changes, with those priced below 100 yuan showing a decline, while those in the 100-105 yuan range have shown significant improvement [3][13] Group 3 - The overall economic stability in China is noted, with limited downside potential in the stock market, likely leading to a structural market fluctuation. The financial and public utility sectors are expected to attract incremental capital due to their stable profitability [4][34] - The report recommends focusing on specific sectors such as AI models and robotics, which are expected to drive the high-end manufacturing industry's growth, and suggests monitoring companies like Lingyi, Dongcai, and Wentai [4][34] - It also highlights that the new energy and automotive parts sectors are anticipated to see a recovery in economic conditions in the second half of the year, recommending attention to companies like Mingli, Huayou, Qilin, and Yiwei [4][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7]. Core Insights - The long-term care insurance (LTCI) is expected to generate a trillion-level demand for nursing services, emphasizing the importance of innovative medical devices [2][4]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of disabled individuals in China, projected to reach 62 million by 2050, leading to a related care demand of approximately 1.7 trillion yuan [4][16]. - The LTCI system is in an accelerated establishment phase, with the government increasingly focusing on its implementation since 2021 [4][18]. Summary by Sections Long-term Care Insurance - The LTCI is anticipated to become a core payment mechanism for nursing services, with a projected care demand of 1.7 trillion yuan by 2050 due to the rising number of disabled individuals [4][16]. - The number of individuals covered by LTCI has grown from 108 million in 2020 to 183 million in 2023, with a significant increase in both income and expenditure of the LTCI fund [27][28]. - The report outlines various methods to estimate the potential income scale of LTCI, suggesting it could reach between 1,773 billion and 20,130 billion yuan based on different assumptions [41][46]. Market Review and Trends - The report notes a 4.2% decline in the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index for the week of June 16-20, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.8 percentage points [3][49]. - The report identifies key stocks that performed well during the week, including Anglikang (+21.2%) and Yuekang Pharmaceutical (+19.3%) [3][64]. - The overall market sentiment in the pharmaceutical sector is currently weak, with a 25.6% decrease in trading volume compared to the previous week [5][63]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative medical devices and pharmaceuticals as key investment themes, particularly those with strong performance trends and potential for growth [5][6]. - Specific companies to watch include Huada Zhizao, Huitai Medical, and Xinda Biopharma, among others [6][12].

华福证券 轻工制造 2025 年 06 月 22 日 轻工制造 AI 眼镜关注新品催化，优质白马进入价值区间 投资要点： 【周观点】本周 Meta 公布与依视路合作打造的下一代智能眼镜，近期 AI 眼镜新品催化不断，建议关注明月镜片、康耐特光学、博士眼镜、英派斯； 5 月我国塑料餐具、保温杯、化纤制充气褥垫等细分品类出口受关税影响 同比均有下滑，同时 5 月越南商品出口额同比+17%，看好海外产能布局领 先的出口企业，出口链持续推荐众鑫股份；近期随市场情绪回调，多数白 马已处于价值布局区间，建议关注太阳纸业、晨光股份、裕同科技。 ➢ 3）轻工消费：①6 月 20 日，Meta 公布与依视路合作打造的下一代 智能眼镜——Oakley Meta Glasses。相较于 2023 年推出的 Ray- Ban Meta，Oakley Meta 在电池续航和视频拍摄分辨率方面实现了 显著提升。近期 AI 眼镜新品陆续发布，产业催化不断，建议关注明 月镜片、康耐特光学、博士眼镜、英派斯等。②据星图数据发布的 618 全网销售数据解读，5 月 13 日-6 月 18 日全网综合电商销售总 额达到 8556 亿元，同比去年大 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [12]. Core Insights - Leading companies in the industry are actively investing in foldable screen products, with Apple's first foldable iPhone expected to launch in the fall of 2026 alongside the iPhone 18 Pro series [2]. - The smart glasses market is experiencing explosive growth, with transaction volume increasing over 8 times year-on-year, and a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 60% from 2025 to 2029 [3]. - Major players like Meta and Apple are also entering the smart glasses market, with Meta's new headset expected to be priced above $300 and Apple's AI glasses anticipated to launch by the end of 2026 [3]. Summary by Sections Foldable Screen Products - Industry leaders are focusing on foldable screen technology, with significant product launches planned by major companies such as Apple, Honor, and Samsung [2]. Smart Glasses Market - The smart glasses market is projected to see a shipment volume of 12.8 million units globally by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 26%, and the Chinese market expected to exceed 2.75 million units with a staggering growth of 107% [3]. Investment Opportunities - Suggested areas for investment include 3D printing applications, automation assembly equipment, automation testing equipment, Android-based 3C devices, foldable screen hinges, and components like middle frames and back covers [4].

Group 1 - The report indicates a clear trend of supply recovery in China, with a long-term focus on core asset styles and free cash flow combinations [2][4][26] - It highlights the gradual disintegration of the dollar capital cycle, suggesting a potential long-term depreciation of the dollar and a hopeful return of global capital to China [2][4][26] - The report anticipates a systematic restructuring of Chinese assets influenced by both internal and external factors, with a trend of increasing price-to-book (PB) ratios being a main theme of the current bull market [2][4][26] Group 2 - The report expresses optimism towards core asset styles, particularly in sectors such as large finance, Hang Seng state-owned enterprises, Hang Seng technology, oil shipping, gold, energy, and non-ferrous metals, while also advising caution regarding micro-market risks [2][4][26] - It notes that the recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market has seen significant declines, particularly in the Hang Seng Technology Index, which fell by 2.03% [14][26] - The A-share market has also experienced a downturn, with the pharmaceutical sector seeing a notable decline of over 4%, while financial and real estate sectors showed slight resilience with a 0.64% increase [27][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance sector [7]. Core Insights - The pet industry continues to show high growth potential, with a significant increase in health product consumption among younger consumers, and the home appliance sector benefits from national subsidies [3][41]. - The overall e-commerce sales during the 618 shopping festival reached 855.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [14]. - The home appliance sector's total sales amounted to 110.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 46% [28]. - The health product sector saw total online sales of 14.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 55% [35]. - Pet food sales totaled 7.5 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 36% [3]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - The 618 shopping festival saw a prolonged sales period, with platforms like Tmall and JD.com reporting significant user growth and sales increases [14][15]. - Tmall's GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) grew by 10% year-on-year, with over 453 brands achieving sales exceeding 100 million yuan [14]. - JD.com reported over 22 billion orders during the festival, with user numbers increasing by over 100% [15]. Pet Industry Insights - The pet industry experienced a remarkable performance during the 618 festival, with over 400 brands achieving sales growth exceeding 100% [20]. - New pet owners increased by 39%, indicating a growing market [20]. Home Appliance Sector - The home appliance sector benefited from national subsidies, leading to a significant increase in sales across various categories [28][34]. - Major brands like Midea, Haier, and Gree reported substantial sales growth, with Gree's ice washing category seeing a year-on-year increase of 3879% [40]. Health Products - The health product market is thriving, particularly among younger consumers who are increasingly health-conscious [35]. - Leading brands in the health product sector include Swisse and汤臣倍健, with a strong focus on products like collagen and fish oil [35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major home appliance brands such as Midea, Haier, and Gree, as well as pet companies like Guibao Pet and Petty Co., which are expected to continue thriving in the current economic climate [41][42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report suggests a high possibility of a shift towards a multipolar currency system, indicating that the international monetary landscape is likely to evolve away from the dollar's dominance, which may lead to the appreciation of Chinese assets and a long-term bullish trend in commodities [3][4][5] - The report highlights that the current systemic cracks in the dollar's cycle are primarily due to the obstruction of excess profit repatriation, which may drive global capital flows into a new configuration [5][4] - It emphasizes that the dollar's hegemonic status is unsustainable, and the establishment of a multipolar currency system is a crucial pathway to mitigate the crisis within the dollar system [4][5] Group 2 - The report discusses the historical context of the gold standard's collapse, noting that the inherent contradiction between limited gold supply and global credit expansion led to a depletion of credit derivation capacity [5][6] - It outlines the lessons learned from the Great Depression, particularly the impact of monetary policy decisions, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, which triggered a debt-deflation spiral [26][39] - The analysis indicates that the transition from a gold-backed currency to a more flexible monetary system is essential for economic recovery and stability [5][6] Group 3 - The report projects that under the current conditions, commodities are expected to experience a long-term bullish trend, driven by the anticipated depreciation of the dollar and the expansion of the renminbi [5][4] - It also notes that the systemic crisis of the dollar necessitates a downward revaluation of dollar assets over the long term, which could further enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets [5][4] - The report suggests that the global economic landscape is shifting, with the potential for increased capital flows towards emerging markets, particularly in Asia [5][4]

Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固定收益点评 2025 年 6 月 20 日 美联储为什么难降息 总统特朗普已数次"喊话"降息，但25年已过半仍未迎来年内首次降息，在相较理想 的通胀数据支撑下，美联储为什么仍如此难下降息决定？通过解读本次议息会议，我 们认为站在美联储角度，incoming data固然是重要决策，但evolving outlook可能 更为重要。目前关税可能引发的通胀仍未在数据层面被观察到，进口商主要提供的是 关税政策前囤积的库存商品，无法反应最终会由供应链上哪个环节承担主要关税。据 联储预测，通胀升温可能会于夏季出现，同时，威尔也反复提及目前就业市场的稳定 提供给美联储继续观察的机会，叠加关税政策还未敲定，因此，按兵不动的决策目前 难以被改变。 有关何时能开启降息，我们认为仍会落于此三种情形：①关税明确性的轻落地，很可 能是市场此前所预期的10%以内的关税，会给予联储较为明确的关税不会持续性产生 通胀的信号。②关税落地虽略高于预期，但在较长一段时间内，通胀依旧能维持稳定 甚至下行。 ③失业率等关键指标持续性落入衰退区间，引发衰退式降息。 ➢ 票委决议与预期 美 ...