【龙源电力】关于完成 2024 年度第五期中期票据发行的公告。12 月 18 日公司 发行 2024 年度第五期中期票据，该中期票据期限 3 年，计划与实际发行总额均为 20 亿元，发行价格 100 元/张，票面利率 1.85%，起息日为 2024 年 12 月 19 日，兑付日 为 2027 年 12 月 19 日。 【兆新股份】关于公司开展融资租赁暨相关担保事项的公告。公司及子公司深 圳永晟用下属宁夏中源与华润融资租赁开展售后回租业务，融资金额不超 5000 万元、 期限 120 个月。华润融资租赁基本信息明确，双方无关联关系。 【天富能源】经八师发改委核查，公司所属新疆天富能源股份有限公司 148 团 20MW 光伏并网电站项目可正常申报可再生能源电价附加补助资金电量；公司全资 子公司新疆天富金阳新能源有限责任公司 148 团 20MW 地面分布式光伏发电项目， 该项目交流侧逆变器容量 21.6MW 高于备案容量 20MW，不再享受可再生能源电价 附加补助。经公司测算，预计减少公司当期收入 7861.44 万元。 【国电电力】临时股东大会：1）日常关联交易：根据经营需要，公司 2025 年 日常关联交 ...

华福证券 家用电器 微信小店推出送礼功能，关注社交电商新机遇— —24W51 周观点 一年内行业相对大盘走势 微信小店推出送礼功能，关注社交电商新机遇 "送礼物"功能简化送礼流程，社交电商迎来新机遇。我们认为， 在送礼物功能当中，不需要提前询问对方的收货地址，也不需要询问 对方想要的款式，微信小店将送礼过程中最繁琐的两步进行了大幅简 化。微信在接近春节的时点进行该功能的灰度测试，或有望在春节期 间推出，结合微信庞大的社交资源，或有望为社交电商带来新机遇， 成为社区电商、直播电商之后的又一变革。对于可选消费行业而言， 我们认为产品具有较强礼物属性的企业有望受益，建议关注飞科电器、 倍轻松、小熊电器、漫步者、极米科技、北鼎股份。 投资建议 强于大市（维持评级） 原材料涨价；需求不及预期；汇率波动等。 行业定期报告 | 家用电器 | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating [47] Core Views - The automotive industry is experiencing significant growth in new energy vehicle (NEV) sales, with NEV penetration rates reaching 45.6% in November [70] - The industry is benefiting from government policies such as "large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement," which have driven sales of vehicles, home appliances, and other consumer goods [21] - The sector is also seeing rapid development in the electric vehicle (EV) ecosystem, particularly in battery swapping technology led by CATL [27][28] Market Performance - From December 16 to December 20, 2024, the automotive sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.9 percentage points, with a decline of 1% compared to the CSI 300's 0.1% drop [40] - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has risen by 18%, ranking 7th among the 31 Shenwan sectors [40] Key Data Highlights Sales Data - In November, total vehicle sales reached 3.316 million units, up 11.7% year-over-year (YoY) and 8.6% month-over-month (MoM) [69] - NEV sales in November were 1.512 million units, a 47.4% YoY increase, with a market penetration rate of 45.6% [70] - From December 1-15, passenger vehicle retail sales were 1.083 million units, up 34% YoY and 14% MoM, while NEV retail sales were 536,000 units, up 71% YoY and 6% MoM [87] Inventory and Export - The dealer inventory coefficient in November was 1.11, below the warning line, indicating improved inventory management [69] - Vehicle exports in November were 490,000 units, down 9.5% MoM but up 1.6% YoY [69] Industry News - CATL launched its "Chocolate Battery Swap" ecosystem, aiming to build 1,000 self-operated swap stations by 2025 and expand to 30,000 stations through partnerships [28] - NIO unveiled its third brand, Firefly, targeting the high-end smart compact car market, with the first model set to launch in April 2025 [31] - Avita Technology completed its Series C funding round, raising over 11 billion yuan, with investments from Changan Automobile and other strategic investors [18] Key New Vehicle Launches - NIO ET9, a premium electric sedan, was launched with a starting price of 788,000 yuan, featuring advanced technologies such as a 900V high-voltage architecture and a 100 kWh battery pack [50][39] - Other notable launches include the iCAR V23, Fengyun A8L, and Mercedes-Benz GLC PHEV, catering to various segments from compact SUVs to luxury vehicles [60] Valuation and Sector Performance - The automotive sector's PE-TTM is 25.77x, at the 61.33% historical percentile, while the PB ratio is 2.43x, at the 67.65% historical percentile [86] - Sub-sectors such as passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles are trading at higher valuations compared to historical levels [86]

诚信专业 发现价值 17 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 2、公司业绩不及预期：实体经济的经营受到经济环境、政策环境、公司管理层经营 能力、需求波动等各方面因素的影响，上市公司业绩可能出现不及预期的情况。 投资评级声明 华福证券有限责任公司（以下简称"本公司"）具有中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格。本报告仅供本公司的客户使用。本 公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。在任何情况下，本公司不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损失负任 何责任。 本报告的信息均来源于本公司认为可信的公开资料，该等公开资料的准确性及完整性由其发布者负责，本公司及其研究人员对该等 信息不作任何保证。本报告中的资料、意见及预测仅反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，之后可能会随情况的变化而调整。在不 同时期，本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息及资料保持在最新状态，对本 报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改，投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。 在任何情况下，本报告所载的信息或所做出的任何建议、意见及推测并不构成所述证券买卖的出价或询价，也不构成对所述金融产 品、产品发行或管理人作 ...

华福证券 研 轻工制造 11 月家具社零亮眼，文化纸迎 25 年涨价函 投资要点： 【周观点】11 月家具、文化办公用品、金银珠宝、服装鞋帽社零分别同比 +10.5%、-5.9%、-5.9%、-4.5%，国补拉动叠加地产好转背景下，家居需 求持续改善。文化纸龙头发布 1-2 月涨价函，持续看好纸企盈利修复。11 月保温杯、宠物食品出口持续较好，11 月美国成屋销售涨幅明显，关注景 气保温杯和美国地产链相关出口企业。 【周研究】本周发布《博汇纸业首次覆盖：提份额优品类，白卡龙头再起 航》。我们认为，公司作为我国白卡纸龙头企业，在金光赋能下，坚持差 异化与效率并行，强链延链持续深入，短期看好白卡纸供需改善带来的盈 利修复，长期受益于以纸代塑带来的需求增长空间。 团队成员 分析师： 李宏鹏(S0210524050017) lhp30568@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 汪浚哲(S0210524050024) wjz30579@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李含稚(S0210524060005) lhz30597@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、轻工纺服行业周报：政策强调促消费，看好内 需子板块复苏—— ...

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 宏 观 研 究 \地产销售回暖 行业名 本周有三方面值得重点关注。 二是北京时间周四凌晨美联储公布12月议息会议结果。美联储公布12 月议息会议结果，将联邦基金利率下调25BP至4.25%-4.5%，符合市场预 期。12月份，鲍威尔的表态总体偏鹰，暗示后续降息将大概率放缓，后续 的利率决议将更加谨慎，更加关注通胀。对于经济和就业前景的表述仍然 比较乐观。12月票委的最新点阵图显示，由于通胀预期被大幅上调叠加特 朗普新政的冲击，2025年降息空间指引由100BP降至50BP。市场对于后续 降息也不乐观，市场风险偏好大幅回落，美债利率回升明显，美股暴跌。 但是长期来看，对于美股、美债仍持看好态度。 ➢ 风险提示： Tabl e_First|Tabl e_R eportD ate 宏观定期研究 2024 年 12 月 21 日 分析师 燕翔 执业证书编号：S0210523050003 邮箱： yx30128@hfzq.com.cn 联系人 陈迪涵 邮箱：cdh30400@hfzq.com.cn Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Contacter 宏 ...

Core Concept: Certainty Growth - The report introduces the concept of "certainty growth," which refers to companies that can maintain solid growth even under the most pessimistic performance expectations, indicating high confidence and certainty in future performance [2] - Certainty growth companies are expected to benefit from policy effects and economic recovery, with their growth attributes allowing them to fully capitalize on development dividends [2] - These companies are also seen as having strong defensive capabilities in the face of overseas disturbances and risk aversion [2] - The report identifies certainty growth companies primarily in industries such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, power equipment, defense, and machinery, which are aligned with strategic emerging industries and the cultivation of new productive forces [2][36] New Productive Forces: Low-Altitude Economy and Autonomous Control - The low-altitude economy is highlighted as a trillion-dollar industry with broad application scenarios and high technological content, expected to exceed 1 trillion RMB by 2026 [98][127] - Autonomous control is emphasized as a critical area, particularly in semiconductors and IT infrastructure, driven by external sanctions and the need for domestic substitution [108][116] - The report notes that the low-altitude economy is transitioning from policy-driven to practical implementation, with local governments actively participating in its development [101][133] AI and Computing Infrastructure - AI is driving significant capital expenditure from major global and domestic companies, with a focus on computing infrastructure to meet the growing demand for AI capabilities [7][91] - The report predicts that global AI PC shipments will exceed 100 million units by 2025, accounting for 40% of total PC shipments, with a CAGR of 44% from 2024 to 2028 [7] - Communication equipment, including optical modules, servers, and switches, is expected to benefit from the AI-driven demand for computing infrastructure [90][153] Wind Power Industry - The global wind power market is projected to grow by 125% from 2024 to 2035, with China's wind power industry benefiting from cost competitiveness and export opportunities [13][16] - China's wind power exports are concentrated in "Belt and Road" regions, with significant potential for expansion into Europe and other high-margin markets [19][67] - Domestic wind power demand is supported by large-scale base construction, with offshore wind power expected to enter a new growth cycle [40][82] Semiconductor and IT Infrastructure - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the semiconductor industry due to US sanctions, with a focus on AI-related chips and advanced manufacturing equipment [112][140] - Domestic substitution in semiconductors is progressing, with notable advancements in etching, cleaning, and thinning equipment, as well as the rise of domestic chip manufacturers [116][140] - The IT infrastructure sector is entering a phase of "real replacement and real use," with significant market potential driven by the need for secure and autonomous systems [143][145] Low-Altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is seen as a new growth engine, with local governments establishing industrial funds and investment companies to drive regional economic growth [103][133] - The report introduces the concept of "low-altitude fiscal policy," which could provide a sustainable revenue source for local governments by leveraging low-altitude airspace resources [135] - Low-altitude economic industrial parks and experimental zones are emerging, with key enterprises driving the development of the industry [133][134]

华福证券 电子 2024 年 12 月 22 日 电子 美光乐观展望远期 HBM 市场；重视字节算力硬 件产业链投资机遇-海外科技周跟踪 本周纳斯达克综合指数下跌 1.78%，费城半导体下跌 3.59% 尽管公司同比扭亏为盈，但是对下一季度的营收指引明显偏弱， 导致公司股价盘后跌超 17%。公司预计 FY25Q2 营业收入在 77-81 亿 美元之间，显著低于预期的 89.9 亿美元；调整后 EPS 在 1.33-1.53 美 元，显著低于预期的 1.91 美元；调整后毛利率预计在 37.5%-39.5%。 短期来看，消费者导向型的市场表现较弱。但市场更关注美光在 HBM 市场的战略优势地位，其 HBM 产品正在被内置到英伟达 H200 芯片和 Blackwell 系统中。公司预计到 2028 年，HBM 总目标市场将从 2024 年 160 亿美元增长 4 倍，到 2030 年将超过 1000 亿美元。 证 券 研 究 报 告 字节跳动于 12 月 18 日举行火山引擎 FORCE 原动力大会，正式 发布了视觉推理大模型、全新图片生成模型、豆包 3D 生成模型。亮 点方面，目前豆包视觉推理大模型价格已经下降 ...

截至 2024 年 12 月 20 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 767 元/吨， 周环比-23 元/吨（-2.9%）。产地价格小跌，晋陕蒙三省煤矿开工率为 83.7%，周环比-0.8pct。本周电厂日耗大涨，电厂、港口库存小跌，煤 企库存小涨；非电方面，甲醇、尿素开工率小跌，仍处于历史同期偏高 水平，截至 12 月 19 日，甲醇开工率为 85.6%，周环比-1.8pct，年同比 +5.7pct；截至 12 月 18 日，尿素开工率为 80.2%，周环比-2.2pct，年同 比+4.9pct。 ➢ 焦煤 截至 12 月 20 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1610 元/吨，环比-10 元/吨 （-0.6%），产地价格相对平稳。当前处开工淡季，铁水产量环比小跌， 样本钢厂煤焦库存微涨，随着一揽子政策陆续落地，焦煤价格无需悲 观。本周焦炭价格持平、螺纹钢价格小跌，截至 12 月 20 日，山西临 汾一级冶金焦出厂价 1700 元/吨，环比持平，螺纹钢现货价格 3350 元， 环比-60 元/吨（-1.8%），焦炭第四轮提降落地，大型焦化开工率小跌， 截至 12 月 20 日，焦化厂产能（＞200 万吨）开工率 ...

上 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为橡 胶助剂(1.09%)、有机硅(0.84%)、电子化学品(-0.5%)、轮胎(-0.5%)、粘胶(-1.14%)； 化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为改性塑料(-5.01%)、绵纶(-4.44%)、复合肥 (-4.3%)、其他塑料制品(-4.3%)、纯碱(-3.97%)。 团队成员 分析师： 李骥(S0210524080008) lj30599@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 周丹露(S0210524050020) zdl30566@hfzq.com.cn 浙江仙鹤芳纶项目成功试产。近日浙江仙鹤艾迈德新材料有限公司年 产 6000 吨间位芳纶材料项目已进入试生产阶段，将为该市新材料产业发展 注入新活力。项目总投资约 11.351 亿元，新增用地 200 亩，新建原液车间、 纺丝车间、新材料车间、动力车间等生产车间，主要购置 8 条聚合生产线、 4 条纺丝生产线、2 条沉析线、2 条芳纶新材料生产线和 2 套溶剂回收装置， 形成年产 6000 吨间位芳纶材料的生产能力。项目分两期实施。其中，项目 一期新增土地 160 亩，总投资 6.4 亿元， ...