Industry Investment Rating - Stronger than the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Views - The integration of Apple's ecosystem with domestic large models is key to the landing of AI phones in China [1] - Apple's AI features require local partners to address technical and regulatory challenges for successful implementation in China [1] - Apple is in talks with Tencent and ByteDance to integrate their AI models into iPhones sold in China, which could accelerate the localization of Apple's AI features [1][75] - The successful integration of domestic large models into Apple's ecosystem and the smooth landing of localized iPhone AI experiences are expected to boost Apple's sales in China and create growth opportunities for related industry chains [1] Market Performance - The electronics sector rose by 0.22% this week, ranking second among all industries [29] - The semiconductor sub-sector saw the largest increase, up 5.40%, while electronic chemicals had the smallest increase, up 0.43% [11] - Notable stock performers in the SW electronics sector include Mingyang Circuit (up 26.19%) and Fullhan Microelectronics (up 25.16%), while Guanghua Technology (down 15.51%) and *ST Meixun (down 12.72%) were among the biggest decliners [12] Valuation Analysis - The overall PE (TTM) of the electronics industry this week was 57.14x, slightly higher than the previous week [16] - Sub-sector valuations: consumer electronics (31.05x), electronic chemicals (59.06x), components (39.25x), other electronics (62.89x), optoelectronics (58.43x), and semiconductors (92.96x) [18] Industry Dynamics - Micron announced progress on its next-generation HBM4 and HBM4E processes, with HBM4 expected to enter mass production in 2026 [20] - TSMC's Kumamoto factory in Japan is set to begin mass production this year, using 22/28nm and 12/16nm process technologies [21][58] - Apple is in early discussions with Tencent and ByteDance to integrate their AI models into iPhones sold in China [59] - Huawei led the global wearable device market in the first three quarters of 2024, with a 44.3% year-on-year increase in shipments [60] - India's PC and tablet market is expected to grow by 17% in 2024, driven by strong demand in the education sector [61][62] - Global AR/VR headset shipments grew by 12.8% in Q3 2024, with Meta maintaining a 70.8% market share [63][64] - AMOLED panels are projected to account for 43% of display panel market revenue by 2028, up from 34% in 2022 [66] - Samsung Display plans to continue selling its 8th-generation LCD equipment as it shifts focus to OLED production [67][69] - OLED laptop penetration is expected to exceed 5% by 2027, driven by Apple's adoption of OLED technology in MacBooks [71][72] Company Dynamics - Notable shareholder changes include Guoxin Technology (reducing holdings by 0.58%) and Laite Optoelectronics (reducing holdings by 2.00%) [53] - Mingyang Circuit saw significant shareholder reductions, with multiple entities reducing their stakes [90]

继续演绎。铜，供给端，本周铜精矿现货TC持稳处于低位，矿山新增 产能有限与冶炼产能扩张的矛盾仍在继续演绎，多家矿企确定2025年 铜精矿长单TC/RC分别为21.25美元/吨和2.125美分/磅。需求端，临近 年底，多数精铜杆厂在手订单较为充足但新增订单减少，且年底或转 向回款和安排检修。全球铜库存52.44万吨，环比-3.22万吨，同比 26.27万吨。我们认为，美联储降息方向确定，铜供需紧平衡对铜价构 成强支撑；中长期，随美联储降息加深提振投资和消费，同时打开国 内货币政策空间，叠加美国大选后宽货币宽财政带来的通胀反弹将支 撑铜价中枢上移。个股：铜矿推荐紫金矿业、洛阳钼业，小而优关注 铜陵有色、西部矿业、金诚信，其他关注河钢股份、藏格矿业等；电 解铝推荐中国铝业、中国宏桥，关注天山铝业、南山铝业、云铝股 份、神火股份等；锡建议关注锡业股份、兴业银锡、华锡有色。 ➢ 新能源金属：锂，24全年过剩局面未改，旺季虽然反弹但高度有 限，仍需通过锂价超跌实现供需再平衡；中长期看，锂矿为电动车产 业链最优质且弹性大的标的，关注股票和锂价双底部战略性布局机 会。稀土，商家情绪极度悲观，年关将至开始大跌属于经营策略上变 ...

Core Views - The rise of China's AI industry may reshape global perceptions of the US tech system, potentially suppressing dollar financing and impacting the existing pricing system [2] - Rapidly rising US real interest rates may reflect intensifying stagflation pressures, increasing the risk of economic downturn [2] - US PCE data indicates potential downward pressure in the services sector, while durable goods manufacturing remains strong [2] - US stocks face dual pressures from stagflation and the rise of China's AI applications, further exacerbating risks [2] - Trump's potential implementation of domestic circulation policies could maintain high US real interest rates in a stagflation scenario, mitigating economic downturn risks [2] - Mid-term optimism for gold, autonomous and controllable leaders, cyclical core assets, state-owned enterprises, and AI applications Long-term optimism for state-owned enterprises, the Belt and Road initiative, new consumption, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech O2O, semiconductor equipment, military, and traditional manufacturing leaders [2] Market Review and Style Shift - Broad-based indices showed mixed performance, with the STAR 50 and SSE 50 indices gaining [38] - The technology sector outperformed, while consumer and cyclical sectors saw deeper declines [21] - Market style may be entering a transition window, with high-beta, large-cap, and institutionally heavy stocks showing smaller declines [40] - Foreign investors' futures positions diverged, with IC, IM, and IH net short positions narrowing, while IF net short positions widened [64] Industry Performance - Technology sector led gains, with semiconductors, communication equipment, and components outperforming [73] - Fisheries, entertainment goods, and hotel catering sectors underperformed [73] - Hard tech sectors such as semiconductors and communication equipment led in relative outperformance against the SSE Index [73] Economic Data and Forecasts - The Fed reduced its 2025 rate cut expectations from four to two, citing persistent inflation pressures [15] - US PCE inflation in November was weaker than expected, with core goods inflation rising and core services inflation slowing [32] - US real consumption growth weakened, with core goods consumption stronger than core services consumption [92] - Fed's economic data forecasts show improved expectations for 2025 US economy, with stronger inflation expectations [15] Next Week's Focus - Key data to watch include US Federal Reserve bank reserve balances and China's industrial enterprise profits [77] Sector and Asset Allocation - Mid-term focus on gold, autonomous and controllable leaders, cyclical core assets, state-owned enterprises, and AI applications [2] - Long-term focus on state-owned enterprises, the Belt and Road initiative, new consumption, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech O2O, semiconductor equipment, military, and traditional manufacturing leaders [2]

投资要点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 数字：CPU/GPU——本周海光信息+5.9%，龙芯中科-7.4%，寒武纪+19%。 18 日字节跳动豆包大模型全面升级，利好国产算力公司。据路透 19 日消 息，据《信息时报》19 日报导，美国商务部最近要求 NvidiaNVDA.O 调查 过去一年该公司的产品是如何被走私到中国的，报导援引一位接近商务部 的人士的话说，商务部要求超微电脑 SMCI.O 和戴尔科技 DELL.N 等分销 商对东南亚客户进行抽查。SoC——除炬芯科技-0.2%，其余标的股价均上 涨，其中乐鑫科技+23%，瑞芯微+21%，翱捷科技+15.7%。近期，OpenAI 在其官方 GitHub 仓库中发布了一个可在以 ESP32 为代表的微控制器上使 用 Open Realtime API 的 SDK，该项目已在 ESP32-S3 和 Linux 上开发并测 试，开发者可以直接按照指引使用；乐鑫科技表示将 OpenAI 的前沿 AI 能 力集成到基于乐鑫芯片的项目中。瑞芯微连日涨停，17 日在互动平台表示， 公司已有 SoC 芯片应用在多种形态的机器人上，并在机器人领域已有一定 的市场份额。 诚信 ...

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Summary Tabl e_First|Tabl e_R eportD ate 电力设备及新能源 2024 年 12 月 22 日 电力设备及新能源行业周报 产业周跟踪：江苏海风竞配超预期，关注 AI 电 强于大市(维持评级) 投资要点： 新增装机有望超250GW。1-11月国内光伏新增装机206.3GW，累计同比 +25.9%，其中11月国内光伏新增装机25GW，同比+17.3%，环比+22.4%，装 机数据表现优秀。我们认为，随着年底部分项目抢装，24年国内光伏新增 装机有望超250GW，25年国内装机规模仍能保持相当水平。 证，建议重视当下布局机会。1）江苏启动7.65GW海上风电竞配：配储10% 团队成员 及以上、2h，鼓励民营企业参与；2）辽宁2024海上风电建设意见征求： 启动省管7GW竞配；3）华能山东半岛北L场址海上风电项目开工。 Tabl e_First|Tabl e_Author 分析师 邓伟 执业证书编号：S0210522050005 邮箱： dw3787@hfzq.com.cn ...

汽车 周观点（1216-1220）：弹性关注机器人，价值关 注整车 2、行业变化： 1）据乘联会，12 月 1-15 日，乘用车零售 108.3 万辆，同比增长 34%，较 上月同期增长 14%；乘用车批发 113.8 万辆，同比增长 39%，较上月同期 增长 4%。 2）12 月 18 日，宁德时代加大换电布局，启动巧克力换电生态。 3）截至 12 月 19 日，全国汽车报废更新近 270 万辆，汽车置换更新超过 310 万辆。 4）12 月 21 日，蔚来 ET9 正式上市，同时推出第三品牌"Firefly 萤火虫"。 团队成员 分析师： 卢宇峰(S0210524050001) lyf30531@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、宁德时代启动巧克力换电生态 蔚来举办 NIO Day 2024——2024.12.22 2、周观点（1209-1213）：低空板块技术面调整 充分，静待下一个催化——2024.12.16 3、车企淘汰赛加剧 重磅新车亮相工信部公告— —2024.12.15 一年内行业相对大盘走势 华福证券 人形机器人：国内外催化不断，持续关注国内外机器人产业链共振机 会 Wind 机器人指数 ...

图表 2: 房管局商品房网签数据（套、%） 4 重点监测 20 城合计成交二手房总套数为 32504 套，环比上周下降 8.7%；2024 年累计成交总套数为 126.1 万套，累计同比增长 4.1%。其中，一线城市成交 15800 套，环比上周下降 5.1%，2024年累计成交 54.2 万套，累计同比上升 18.9%；二线城 市成交 15510 套，环比上周下降 11.0%,2024年累计成交 66.3 万套,累计同比减少 4.0%; 三线城市成交 1194 套, 环比上周下降 16.0%, 2024 年累计成交 5.6 万套, 累 计同比增长 48.8%。 ●由于广州数据滞后性,因此广州数据截至 2024.12.14 行业定期报告 | 房地产 试信专业 发现价值 土地供应（12.9-12.15） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------------|---------|--------------|----------|--------------|--------| | 城市等级 | 供应规划建筑面积 | ...

华福证券 钢铁 钢铁行业周报（12.16-12.20）淡季供需双弱，补 库存在预期 本周钢材市场回顾 跟随大市（维持评级） 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 正文目录 行业定期报告 | 钢铁 钢铁 2024 年 12 月 22 日 投资要点： 本周黑色系市场弱势下行，国内进入政策"空窗期"后，基本面呈现出淡 季供需双弱的特征，伴随铁水产量下滑，原料端矛盾加大；此外市场信心较弱， 钢材库存储备的情绪不高。1）开工冶炼方面：本周样本钢厂高炉开工率继续 下降，日均铁水产量降至 229.4 万吨，周环比-1.32%。2）成材产消方面：本 周五大品种钢材产量 849.9 万吨，周环比-1.25%/同比-6.17%，其中热轧和中 厚板产量下降较明显；钢材消费量 870.7 万吨，周环比-1.25%/同比-1.71%， 其中螺纹消费表现韧性明显。3）钢材库存方面：五大品种钢材库存下降至 1,118.4 吨，周环比-1.82%/同比-15.16%，五大品种钢材库存继续回落，钢厂 库存出现较明显下降，社库下降相对较缓慢冬储还有一定预期。 上下游产业链情况 1）铁矿石：上周澳洲和巴西铁矿石发运 2,578 万吨， ...

试信专业 发现价值 7 综上，国防军工板块行情或受益于需求传导落地驱动，行业基本面已在拐点阶段， 后续军工板块 beta 机会不容忽视，投资主线建议围绕：1）传统阵地主战装备和发 动机板块，以及 2）能够跨越"十五五"周期的高弹性方向，建议关注如下： 1）传统阵地&发动机： 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------|----------|----------------------------------------------|--------------|-------|----------|--------------------------|---------|-----------|-----------------|------------| | | 代码 | 简称 | 图表 11: 军工行业各细分领域个股估值 \n收盘价 | 总市值(亿) · | | 2023全年 | 归母净利润(亿元) \n2024E ...

【龙源电力】关于完成 2024 年度第五期中期票据发行的公告。12 月 18 日公司 发行 2024 年度第五期中期票据，该中期票据期限 3 年，计划与实际发行总额均为 20 亿元，发行价格 100 元/张，票面利率 1.85%，起息日为 2024 年 12 月 19 日，兑付日 为 2027 年 12 月 19 日。 【兆新股份】关于公司开展融资租赁暨相关担保事项的公告。公司及子公司深 圳永晟用下属宁夏中源与华润融资租赁开展售后回租业务，融资金额不超 5000 万元、 期限 120 个月。华润融资租赁基本信息明确，双方无关联关系。 【天富能源】经八师发改委核查，公司所属新疆天富能源股份有限公司 148 团 20MW 光伏并网电站项目可正常申报可再生能源电价附加补助资金电量；公司全资 子公司新疆天富金阳新能源有限责任公司 148 团 20MW 地面分布式光伏发电项目， 该项目交流侧逆变器容量 21.6MW 高于备案容量 20MW，不再享受可再生能源电价 附加补助。经公司测算，预计减少公司当期收入 7861.44 万元。 【国电电力】临时股东大会：1）日常关联交易：根据经营需要，公司 2025 年 日常关联交 ...