Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 15.134 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 29.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.663 billion yuan, down 41.1% year-on-year [3]. - The company is a leading player in the potassium fertilizer market, with stable foundations and a significant cost advantage in lithium extraction from salt lakes [2][4]. - The company is implementing a three-step development strategy aimed at establishing a world-class salt lake industry by 2035, with ambitious production targets for potassium fertilizer and lithium salts [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.686 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.9%, and a net profit of 1.522 billion yuan, up 63.8% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The potassium chloride production for 2024 was 4.96 million tons, with a sales volume of 4.6728 million tons, reflecting a 16.56% year-on-year decline in sales volume [4]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride in 2024 was 2,507 yuan per ton, down 3.97% year-on-year, while the sales cost decreased to 1,170 yuan per ton, resulting in a gross margin of 53.34%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The lithium carbonate production increased by 10.92% year-on-year to 40,000 tons, but the average selling price fell by 56.31% to 74,000 yuan per ton, with a gross margin of 50.68%, down 21.77 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Future Outlook - The company has a 40,000-ton lithium salt project that is 55% complete, with plans to release part of the new capacity in 2025, expecting to produce 3,000 tons [6]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 5.52 billion yuan, 6.44 billion yuan, and 7.02 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment due to lower lithium prices and reduced new lithium salt production [8].

Group 1 - The report indicates that April may open a configuration window for dividend assets, benefiting from the approaching US tariff policy and concerns over earnings disclosures, leading to increased market volatility in March [2][3][8] - The report anticipates an influx of approximately 116 billion yuan in new insurance premiums, which will gradually convert into actual investments in dividend assets [3][8] - The AH dual-market rotation strategy aims to construct a more favorable dividend+ portfolio, with a focus on enhancing overall returns through the analysis of driving factors for A-shares and H-shares [9][10] Group 2 - The AH dividend rotation strategy for April emphasizes a significant preference for Hong Kong dividend assets, with a proposed allocation of 5% to A-share dividends and 95% to Hong Kong share dividends [9][10] - The report identifies five major driving factors, including the US disturbance index and seasonal effects in H-shares, which significantly influence the AH dividend rotation indicators [9][10]

行 业 华福证券 交通运输 研 究 2025 年 1-2 月快递行业数据点评 2025 年 M1-M2 行业件量同比持续提升，需求仍具韧性 事件：国家邮政局披露 2025 年 1~2 月行业经营数据，A 股快递公司披 露 25 年 1~2 月经营数据。 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 商流：社零同比持续增长，网购渗透率略降。2025 年 1~2 月，国内社 零总额为 8.4 万亿元，同比+3.0%；实物商品网上零售额为 1.9 万亿元，同 比+2.3%；实物商品网购渗透率为 22.3%，同比-0.1pp，环比-6.0pp。 量：25M1-2 快递件量同比+19.8%，持续高速增长。2025 年 1~2 月实 现快递业务量 284.8 亿件，同比+19.8%，快递件量增速仍保持中速增长。 分类型看，异地同比+24.5%； 分区域看，东部快递同比+19.6%。 价：1-2 月 ASP 同比下降，全行业 ASP 同比-9.2%。2025 年 1~2 月， 全国快递业务平均单价为 7.76 元，同比下降 0.79 元（-9.2%）。分区域看， 2025 年 1~2 月，东、中和西部快递平均单价分别为 8.01、6.22 和 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [22]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with operating income at 3.251 billion yuan, down 37.79% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.58 billion yuan, down 24.56% year-on-year [3][15]. - The lithium business showed a mixed performance with a production of 11,566 tons, down 4.12% year-on-year, but sales volume increased by 31.68% to 13,582 tons due to rising market demand [4]. - The potassium business faced challenges with a production of 1.073 million tons, down 1.94% year-on-year, and sales volume down 19.21% [5]. - The investment income from the Giant Dragon Copper Mine was a significant contributor, amounting to 1.928 billion yuan, representing a 48.77% increase year-on-year and accounting for 74.72% of the company's net profit [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 927 million yuan, a 65% increase quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 712 million yuan, up 25% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The average selling price of lithium carbonate in 2024 was 85,000 yuan per ton, down 60.81% year-on-year, while the average market price was 90,500 yuan per ton, down 65.6% [4]. - The average selling price of potassium chloride was 2,305.66 yuan per ton, down 14.91% year-on-year [5]. Business Segments - The lithium segment's gross margin was 45.44%, down 35.07 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased costs from brine prices and equipment maintenance [4]. - The potassium segment's gross margin was 44.83%, down 11.37 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased environmental compliance costs [5]. - The company is expanding its lithium, potassium, and copper operations, with significant progress in obtaining mining rights and project developments [6]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 3.013 billion, 4.133 billion, and 6.159 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment due to unexpected copper price increases [7]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 19, 14, and 9 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7].

华福证券 2025 年 04 月 03 日 金 融 工 程 科创综指增强基金、自由现金流 ETF 获批，政策 支持下被动基金快速发展 投资要点： 政策驱动基金市场加速创新，行业高质量发展趋势凸显 金 1）多只科创综指增强基金首次获批。3 月 25 日，天弘、博时、国投瑞银 等基金公司旗下的科创综指增强基金正式获批。这批产品自 2 月 28 日上报 以来，仅一个月便完成审批，标志着科创板投资工具进一步丰富。 融 工 程 定 期 报 告 2）QDII 基金接连开放限购门槛。近期，华泰柏瑞、景顺长城等基金公司 调整纳斯达克主题 QDII 基金申购政策，或恢复申购，或放松申购门槛，应 对美股回调与外汇额度压力。 3）指数基金费率改革。3 月，多家基金管理人发布公告，宣布使用费转由 管理人承担，覆盖 ETF、债券指数基金等，此举降低投资成本，优化指数 化投资生态。 4）自由现金流 ETF 布局。嘉实、汇添富等数十家公募基金密集申报自由 现金流 ETF，华宝、摩根旗下沪深 300 相关产品获批，创新策略指数工具 加速扩容。 3 月新发基金规模环比增长但平均份额下滑，债基主导发行市场 3 月新成立基金 135 只（1,00 ...

弱景气下红利风格或可持续占优 证券研究报告|专题报告 金融工程 2025年4月3日 ----红利选股策略的构建 证券分析师： 李杨 执业证书编号： S0210524100005 赵馨 执业证书编号： S0210525010002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 ➢ 基本面回暖不易，弱景气下红利风格或可持续占优。2011年至今红利全收益指数相对于中证全指全收益指数存在相对优势，红利 指数本身在大市值和小市值股票上均有覆盖。行业板块视角，红利成分集中于银行、地产、交通运输、电力及公共事业等。2022 年年底开始红利指数的波动提升至历史相对高位，近期红利指数的低波优势收敛。我们认为红利风格将会持续的原因在于当前市 场利润增速放缓，企业的基本面改善不易。且从杜邦三要素分析基本面改善路径发现，销售净利率和资产周转率处于不同程度下 行，且同比改善的企业在市场占少数。 ➢ 波动、估值、流动性、基本面能够共振增强红利表现，且需放宽标的限制以放大红利特征。将高股息与各类因子进行交叉分组检 验，低波表征股价稳定、净资产收益率刻画企业综合基本面情况、市盈率筛选存在估值优势的股票， ...

财富科技业务上，新一代核心业务系统 UF3.0 在东方证券完成两 融业务全客户切换，综合理财平台 6.0 全年完成 32 家新客户签约，理 财销售平台全年完成 23 家新客户签约，资产配置平台完成 14 家新客 户签约。 公 华福证券 司 研 究 公 司 恒生电子（600570.SH） 市场回暖需求复苏，AI+战略行稳致远 投资要点： 公司发布 2024 年年报 2024 年，公司实现营业收入 65.81 亿元，同比下降 9.62%；实现 归母净利润 10.43 亿元，同比下降 26.75%；实现扣非归母净利润 8.34 亿元，同比下降 42.39%。 24 年下游客户预算收紧，核心业务短暂承压 财 报 点 评 分业务看，公司财富科技、资管科技、运营与机构科技业务营业 收入分别下降 17.5%、8.4%、10.2%。受市场波动影响，公司下游金融 机构业务收入增速放缓，进而影响其金融 IT 投入，部分金融机构科技 投入负增长，且普遍出现 IT 预算执行率下降，执行进度放缓的现象， 采购全流程周期显著增长，验收流程拉长。 各业务板块上线均有突破，AI+战略行稳致远 | 基本数据 | | --- | 资管科技业务上 ...

策 略 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 4 月 3 日 AI 时代下一天 24 小时的分配变化 团队成员 投资要点： 国民时间利用变化情况 策 略 点 根据国家统计局全国时间利用调查报告的口径，将国民一天的时 间分配分为六大领域，分别为个人生理必需活动、有酬劳动、无酬劳 动、个人自由支配活动、学习培训以及交通领域。我们选取 2018 年以 及2024年的两次调查数据进行分析，寻找其背后反映的国民生活观念、 方式变化以及社会环境、科技进步对生活的影响。 图表 1：2024 年与 2018 年各领域时间分配比例 评 数据来源：国家统计局，华福证券研究所 2024 年的国民时间分配相较于 2018 年出现不小变化，国民交通出 行的时间小幅增加，此外还压缩了有酬劳动、无酬劳动以及个人自由 支配活动领域的时间，转移至学习培训的提升以及个人生理必需上。 个人生理必需领域在一天中占据的时间超过一半，总体变化不大，相 较 2018 年仅增加 2.37pct。自我提升的学习培训领域是六大领域中变化 最大的领域，居民日均从 27 分钟增加至 107 分钟，增长近 3 倍。有酬 劳动、无酬劳动以及个人自由活动支配领域的日均数据都相 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][16] Core Insights - The report highlights the transition of the new generation of coal power towards a foundational, supportive, and regulatory power source, emphasizing the need for clean and low-carbon development [4][6] - It discusses the establishment of a market-oriented electricity pricing system to promote green and low-carbon transformation, with specific examples of green electricity trading growth in Jiangsu and Liaoning provinces [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of a "user pays" mechanism in waste incineration and water treatment sectors, which is expected to enhance cash flow and lead to a revaluation of operational assets [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report notes the issuance of guidelines by the Central Committee and State Council on April 2, 2025, aimed at improving pricing governance mechanisms, particularly in the context of coal power transitioning to low-carbon operations [4] - It mentions that in the first half of 2023, auxiliary service fees accounted for approximately 1.9% of the on-grid electricity price, with capacity fees expected to increase in importance as coal power functions evolve [4] Market Developments - The report indicates that in 2024, Jiangsu province completed green electricity transactions of 12.657 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 143%, while Liaoning province's green electricity transaction volume reached 12.783 billion kilowatt-hours, up 179.9% [5] - It also highlights the establishment of a unified national green electricity certificate trading system, which is anticipated to enhance the synergy between green electricity trading and carbon trading [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies within various sectors: for coal power, it suggests Jiangsu Guoxin and cautiously recommends Sheneng Co. and Zhejiang Energy; for hydropower, it recommends Changjiang Power and cautiously suggests Huaneng Hydropower and Qianyuan Power [6] - In the green electricity sector, it advises attention to Three Gorges Energy and Jiangsu New Energy, while cautiously recommending Longyuan Power and Zhejiang New Energy [6] - The report also identifies opportunities in the waste incineration sector, recommending Yongxing Co. and cautiously suggesting United Water [6]

华福证券 2025 年 04 月 02 日 策 略 研 究 消费与医疗周报——生物药企业：出海模式多态 并存，市场拓展方兴未艾 投资要点： 近期观点 1、医药指数本周关注的 6 个子行业仅三分之一录得正收益，表现 不佳。 策 略 定 期 报 告 2、根据沙利文《2025 年中国生物药出海趋势蓝皮书》，中国生物 药企业通过 license-out、NewCo、并购等多种模式加速国际化进程，其 中 license-out 模式逐渐成为中国生物药企获取现金流的重要途径。2023 年，中国生物药 license-out 交易数量首次超过 license-in，交易总金额 达到 192.7 亿美元，远超一级市场 45.0 亿的融资规模。2024 年，相关 交易事件数量进一步增长至 45 件，主要集中在肿瘤、罕见病及免疫系 统疾病等领域。对于中国生物药企业，东南亚、中东及北非等新兴市 场展现出巨大潜力。 团队成员 分析师： 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、消费金融新政—宏观政策与产业风口跟踪—— 2025.03.31 2、滞涨与关税双击下的美股困局——2025. ...