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金融数据速评(2024.3):“灰犀牛”近身,企业借贷意愿亦开始降温
Huajin Securities· 2024-04-13 16:00
Group 1: Credit and Loan Trends - In March, new credit increased by 3.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 800 billion yuan, with a larger decline compared to February[3] - Corporate medium and long-term loans sharply cooled, with a monthly increase of 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 470 billion yuan, indicating a decline in corporate investment willingness amid real estate and local debt risks[3] - Resident loans also continued to decrease year-on-year, with short-term and medium-long loans adding 490.8 billion yuan and 451.6 billion yuan respectively, totaling a decrease of about 300 billion yuan, reflecting a cautious home-buying sentiment[3] Group 2: Social Financing and M2 Growth - New social financing in March was 4.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 500 billion yuan, with a smaller decline compared to February[4] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock fell by 0.3 percentage points to 8.7%, indicating a continued slowdown in broad credit expansion[4] - M2 growth rate declined by 0.4 percentage points to 8.3%, the lowest level in nearly 30 months, primarily due to reduced deposits from both enterprises and residents[12] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The acceleration of local debt risk resolution has slowed the issuance of special bonds, but central government debt financing is expected to accelerate from April, potentially supporting social financing in the coming months[4] - The end of the fiscal overdraft phase has led to a noticeable effect on deposit growth, with corporate and resident deposits decreasing by over 500 billion yuan and nearly 800 million yuan respectively[12] - The central government plans to initiate a new round of fiscal expansion to replace suppressed local leverage financing needs, which is crucial for sustaining domestic demand growth[14]
行业景气叠加新项目的逐步推进,公司发展预期向好
Huajin Securities· 2024-04-12 16:00
446 数据来源:聚源、华金证券研究所 投资建议:公司 2023 年收入基本符合预期;展望 2024 年,新能源汽车行业有望 维持景气,结合公司新增客户及新增定点的逐步落地,预期公司业务稳定向好。长 期来看,公司是国内较为稀缺的车用尼龙管路厂商之一,或受益于未来车用尼龙管 路的渗透加速;同时,公司积极布局液冷等新业务,有望带来新的增长点。我们预 计 2024-2026 年营业总收入分别为 12.33 亿元、15.18 亿元、18.27 亿元,同比增 速分别为 22.0%、23.2%、20.3%;对应归母净利润分别为 1.73 亿元、2.19 亿元、 2.60 亿元,同比增速分别为 14.7%、26.6%、18.6%;对应 EPS 分别为 1.73 元、 2.19 元、2.60 元,对应 PE 分别为 20.3x、16.0x、13.5x,首次覆盖,给予增持-A 评级。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 会计年度 | 2022A | 2023 ...
商业化及产能建设稳步推进,Nectin-4 ADC多管线积极进展
Huajin Securities· 2024-04-12 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment returns over the next six months [3][9][22]. Core Insights - The company is steadily advancing its commercialization efforts, with strong sales expectations for biosimilars and a rich pipeline of products that provide long-term growth potential. The company has a robust research and development capability, particularly in the ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) field, which differentiates its market position [3][17]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 368 million, 1.33 billion, and 2.44 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 188%, 261%, and 83% respectively [3][19]. Financial Data Summary - The company reported a revenue of 128 million yuan in 2023, a significant increase of 361% year-on-year, primarily driven by technology service income and sales from its product, Mylis [15][19]. - The company incurred a loss of 1.05 billion yuan in 2023, with a notable increase in sales, management, and R&D expenses due to commercialization efforts and clinical advancements [15][19]. - The projected operating income for 2024 is 368 million yuan, with a gross margin expected to decrease from 98.9% in 2023 to 90.0% in 2024 [19]. Pipeline and Product Development - The company has three biosimilar products approved for market, with ongoing efforts to expand into emerging markets. The product Mylis has already seen significant distribution and sales [15][17]. - The ADC pipeline is progressing well, with the Nectin-4 ADC showing promising results in clinical trials for multiple indications, including UC (Urothelial Carcinoma) and CC (Cervical Cancer) [15][17]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a comprehensive production system, with significant capacity for antibody and recombinant protein production, supporting its transition from R&D to commercial production [17]. - The company is actively pursuing market entry in various regions, including recent submissions for product approvals in Pakistan and Indonesia [15][17].
新“国九条”有望提振市场
Huajin Securities· 2024-04-12 16:00
| --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 04 月 12 日 \n新"国九条"有望提振市场 | 策略类●证券研究报告 \n事件点评 | | 投资要点 | | | 事件: 2024 年 4 月 12 日,国务院印发《加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发 | 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号: S0910523080001 | | 展的若干意见》。 | denglijun@huajinsc.cn | | 2004 年和 2014 年"国九条"出台均解决了当时资本市场的一些症结。( 1)2004 | 相关报告 | | 年"国九条"主要解决了大量非流通股累积的股权分置等股市基础制度不完善的问 | 新股板块分化和高低切特征凸显,重视业绩 | | 题。一是 2004 年资本市场面临的背景是:大量非流通股长期累积、股权分置的矛 | 和性价比 ...
公司业绩稳定增长,海外拓展持续完善
Huajin Securities· 2024-04-12 16:00
2024年04月13日 公司研究●证券研究报告 新产业( ) 公司快报 300832.SZ 医药 | 医疗器械Ⅲ 公司业绩稳定增长,海外拓展持续完善 投资评级 增持-A(维持) 股价(2024-04-12) 65.81元 投资要点 事件:公司发布2023年年度报告,2023年实现营收39.30亿元(+29%,同比增 交易数据 速,下同);归母净利润16.54亿元(+25%);扣非归母净利润15.47亿元(+25%); 总市值(百万元) 51,708.15 2023Q4单季度,公司实现营收10.22亿元(+36%),实现归母净利润4.67亿元 流通市值(百万元) 45,959.94 (+16%),实现扣非归母净利润4.46亿元(+15%)。 总股本(百万股) 785.72 流通股本(百万股) 698.37 国内大型医疗终端拓展成效显著,试剂收入及单机产出快速提升。2023年国内营 12个月价格区间 81.80/52.00 收26.01 亿元(+26%),其中国内仪器类业务收入随着大型发光仪器及流水线相 关产品销量的增加带动国内仪器类产品收入同比增长 34%,高于国内业务整体增 一年股价表现 速;国内试剂业务 ...
国际贸易数据点评:出口仍需枕戈待旦
Huajin Securities· 2024-04-11 16:00
报告中的内容和意见仅供参考,并不构成对所述证券买卖的出价或询价。投资者对其投资行为负完全责任,我公司及其雇员对使用 本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 IT in Huajin Securitie 集 团 旗 下 企 业 华 发 事件点评 图 3: 进口重点商品同比及贡献结构 (%) 25 20 15 10 5 0 21/01 21/07 22/01 -5 -10 -15 贡献来自: 大宗能源 化工、内需中间品 加工贸易中间品 消费品 -20 资本品 --- 快报重点进口商品同比 总进口同比 -25 资料来源:CEIC,华金证券研究所 注:2020-2021 年为两年平均增速 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 3 / 4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 事件点评 分析师声明 秦泰声明,本人具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格,勤勉尽责、诚实守信。本人对本报告的内容和观点负责,保证 信息来源合法合规、研究方法专业审慎、研究观点独立公正、分析结论具 ...
持续受益卫星高景气,以旧换新有望拉动主业回升
Huajin Securities· 2024-04-11 16:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [2][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerated construction of domestic satellite internet, supported by its leading technological innovation capabilities in radar and avionics [2][8]. - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 1.307 billion, 1.628 billion, and 2.004 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 25.5%, 24.6%, and 23.1% respectively [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 61 million, 98 million, and 149 million yuan for the same period, with significant year-on-year growth rates of 85.8%, 61.5%, and 51.5% [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 1.041 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 24.07%, and a net profit of 33 million yuan, up 319.1% from the previous year [7][8]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 24.0% in 2023 to 30.4% by 2026, indicating enhanced profitability [3][11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 0.08 yuan in 2023 to 0.35 yuan in 2026, reflecting strong growth potential [3][11]. Business Segments - The radar and aerospace electronics business saw a significant revenue increase of 121.62% in 2023, driven by strong order growth and project delivery acceleration [7][8]. - The company's subsidiary, Huqing Ruida, reported a substantial increase in new orders, indicating a robust demand for its radar target and environment simulators [7][8]. - The refrigerator compressor parts business experienced a decline in revenue, but the overall market is expected to benefit from government policies promoting appliance upgrades [7][8].
智能缆网稳步发展,锂电业务承压
Huajin Securities· 2024-04-11 16:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" [1][9]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its smart cable network business, achieving a revenue of 24.465 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 12.85%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 42.09% to 320 million yuan due to increased losses in the smart battery business [1][9]. - The smart battery segment reported a revenue of 590 million yuan in 2023, up 19.12% year-on-year, but faced a gross margin decline of 17.77%, primarily due to intensified competition in the lithium battery copper foil industry [1][9]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with over 23.631 billion yuan in orders received, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.63% [1][9]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a net operating cash flow of 497 million yuan, a significant increase of 54.02% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s R&D investment reached 713 million yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.26% [18]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 808 million yuan, 1.039 billion yuan, and 1.342 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.36 yuan, 0.47 yuan, and 0.60 yuan [9][10]. Business Segments - The smart cable network business generated 22.598 billion yuan in revenue in 2023, with a gross margin of 12.38%, down 0.75 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company is expanding its presence in the clean energy sector, participating in significant projects such as the first "wind-solar-fire-storage integrated" high-voltage transmission project in China [1]. - The smart airport business achieved a revenue of 1.222 billion yuan in 2023, despite a year-on-year decline of 14.87%, but the order intake increased by 151% [1][9].
粘胶:粘胶长丝供给格局良好,国风需求提振价格
Huajin Securities· 2024-04-11 16:00
2024年04月11日 行业研究●证券研究报告 粘胶 行业快报 粘胶长丝供给格局良好,国风需求提振价格 投资评级 领先大市-B首次 投资要点 首选股票 评级 事件:根据百川盈孚数据,截止4月10日,粘胶长丝市场价达43500元/吨,较 4月1日市场价43000元/吨上涨约500元/吨,较1月1日市场价42500元/吨 一年行业表现 上涨约1000元/吨。 粘胶长丝性能优良,应用于高端服装。粘胶长丝,又叫“人造丝”,是天然真 丝的替代品,是以棉浆粕、木浆粕或其他天然纤维为原料,经碱化、黄化等工序 制成纺丝原液,经湿法纺丝而制成。具备天然真丝的特点,质地轻薄、柔软、色 泽亮丽、抗静电、透气、吸湿和穿着舒适,在主要纺织纤维中含湿率最符合人体 皮肤的生理要求,与其他纤维结合可制出服装面料、里料、提花面料、电脑绣花 线等高档次织物,主要应用于高端服装和家用纺织品,同时也应用于医用和工业 领域。 资料来源:聚源 需求端出口稳定,国风潮拉动内需。根据百川盈孚数据,2023年国内粘胶长丝 升幅% 1M 3M 12M 产量为20.7万吨,表观消费量为11.7万吨,出口量为9万吨。出口方面,我国 相对收益 23.75 4. ...
能源业务稳健增长,商业航天特气带来新弹性
Huajin Securities· 2024-04-11 16:00
公司快报/燃气Ⅲ 一、盈利预测核心假设 二、可比公司估值对比 资料来源:wind,华金证券研究所(可比公司数据来自 wind 一致预期,截止日期 2024 年 4 月 11 日,其中,东华能源 2023 年未披露年报,EPS/PE 采用 wind 一致预期) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------|-------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------ ...