44 下 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

| --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Industry Investment Rating - Leading Market-A (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Consumer lithium batteries are mainly used in mobile phones, laptops, smart wearable devices, and power tools, with polymer soft-pack being the dominant form due to its advantages in energy density and flexibility [2] - Emerging consumer electronics and AI technology are driving a new wave of device upgrades, creating significant potential demand for consumer batteries [2] - Cobalt-based lithium batteries with soft-pack solutions are the mainstream for 3C consumer batteries, with stacked batteries showing advantages in energy density and fast charging [2] - The consumer lithium battery market is expected to grow steadily, with Chinese battery manufacturers expanding globally to enhance competitiveness [2] Consumer Lithium Battery Development History - The consumer lithium battery industry has evolved through four stages: germination (1991-1999), initiation (2000-2006), rapid development (2007-2016), and maturity (2017-2022) [5] - The smartphone era significantly boosted demand for consumer batteries, with China, Japan, and South Korea forming a competitive landscape [4] Types of Consumer Batteries - Consumer batteries are mainly used in 3C products (computers, communication, and consumer electronics) and are divided into primary (non-rechargeable) and secondary (rechargeable) batteries, with lithium-ion batteries being the mainstream [7] Packaging Forms of Consumer Batteries - Lithium-ion batteries are categorized into cylindrical, prismatic, and polymer soft-pack batteries, with soft-pack batteries being the most suitable for consumer electronics due to their lightweight and flexible design [10] Polymer Soft-Pack Consumer Lithium Batteries - Polymer soft-pack batteries have seen steady growth, with a 5-year CAGR of 16.3% from 2017 to 2021, driven by smartphones and laptops [13] - In 2023, global polymer soft-pack battery shipments reached 5.48 billion units, a 2.6% YoY decline, with smartphones and laptops accounting for nearly 50% of the market [13] Button Batteries in TWS Earbuds - Button batteries have become the mainstream for TWS earbuds due to their compact size and high energy density, with each TWS earbud requiring two button batteries and one soft-pack battery for the charging case [16] Shaped Lithium Batteries - Shaped lithium batteries, such as L-shaped and curved batteries, are increasingly used in smartphones and wearable devices to maximize internal space and improve battery capacity [19] Consumer Lithium Battery Market Size - Global consumer lithium battery shipments reached 113.2 GWh in 2023, a 0.9% YoY decline, accounting for 9.41% of total lithium battery shipments [20] - China's consumer lithium battery shipments were stable, with 49 GWh in 2023, a 2.1% YoY increase, accounting for 5.54% of total lithium battery shipments [20] Market Concentration in Consumer Lithium Batteries - The global consumer lithium battery market is highly concentrated, with the top 5 companies accounting for over 75% of the market share in 2022 [22] Policies in the Consumer Lithium Battery Industry - Various policies have been introduced to support the development of the lithium battery industry, including energy conservation, recycling, and technological innovation [24] Laptop Market Maturity - The laptop market is mature, with global PC shipments declining by 12.9% YoY in 2023, but demand for lightweight and thin batteries is driving the shift from cylindrical to soft-pack batteries [27] Tablet Market Recovery - The tablet market is recovering, with global shipments reaching 129 million units in 2023, a 20.5% YoY decline, but showing signs of growth in 2024 [30] Smartphone Market Saturation - The smartphone market is relatively saturated, with global shipments declining by 4.32% YoY in 2023, but AI technology is expected to drive a new wave of upgrades [32] AI in Laptops and Smartphones - AI technology is injecting new vitality into the laptop and smartphone markets, with AI-enabled devices expected to see significant growth in 2024 [35] Growth Potential in Smart Wearable Devices - Smart wearable devices, such as smartwatches and TWS earbuds, have significant growth potential, with global shipments reaching 498 million units in 2023, a 1.7% YoY increase [37] TWS Earbuds Market Dominance - TWS earbuds have become the mainstream in the headphone market, with global shipments reaching 143 million units in H1 2024, a 10.2% YoY increase [41] Electric Tools Market Expansion - The global electric tools market is expanding, with a market size of $28.85 billion in 2023, a 3.4% YoY increase, and lithium batteries increasingly replacing lead-acid batteries [44] Electric Two-Wheelers Market Growth - The global electric two-wheeler market is growing, with shipments reaching 67.4 million units in 2023, a 4.5% YoY increase [49] Drone Battery Market - ATL is the largest supplier of batteries for DJI drones, with DJI holding nearly 80% of the global consumer drone market [59] E-Cigarette Market Size - The global e-cigarette market reached $20.88 billion in 2023, with closed-system e-cigarettes accounting for 63.3% of the market [61] E-Cigarette Regulations - China has implemented strict regulations on e-cigarettes, including bans on flavored e-cigarettes and online sales, leading to a more standardized market [65] E-Cigarette Export Market - China is the largest manufacturer and exporter of e-cigarettes, with exports reaching $11.08 billion in 2023, a 12.5% YoY increase [67] Consumer Lithium Battery Production Process - The production process for consumer lithium batteries is complex, involving multiple steps such as mixing, coating, cutting, stacking, welding, and testing [71] Stacked Battery Technology - Stacked batteries are expected to become the mainstream for consumer electronics due to their advantages in energy density, fast charging, and safety [73] Cobalt-Based Lithium Batteries - Cobalt-based lithium batteries are the mainstream for 3C consumer batteries, with cobalt oxide shipments reaching 45,000 tons in H1 2024, a 28.6% YoY increase [76] Profitability of Consumer Battery Companies - The profitability of consumer battery companies has improved due to declining cobalt prices, with some companies seeing significant increases in gross margins [79] Consumer Battery Sales Growth - Consumer battery sales are expected to grow significantly, driven by the AI era and the demand for new devices such as AI-enabled smartphones and laptops [82] Overseas Investments by Consumer Battery Companies - Several consumer battery companies are investing in overseas production facilities, with cumulative investments exceeding $7.28 billion, to expand their global presence [87]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that significant positive policies or external events are crucial for the market to find a bottom, and currently, there is a need to wait for such catalysts [9][12][17] - Historical data shows that since 2005, there have been 10 major market bottoms, each preceded or followed by significant policy changes or external events that improved the fundamental outlook [9][10][12] - Recent economic data indicates a decline in key indicators such as investment growth (8.2% to 8.1%), consumption growth (2.7% to 2.1%), and real estate sales (-18.6% to -18%), suggesting a need for policy intervention [9][12][16] Group 2 - The report notes that liquidity conditions are expected to remain loose, with a high probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, which may lead to a global easing trend [9][12][17] - The sentiment indicators are nearing historical lows, indicating limited further downside potential, with trading volume declines reaching 52% since May 20, 2023 [17][20] - Valuation metrics show that the proportion of stocks with a price-to-book ratio below 1 is at a historically high level, indicating potential undervaluation in the market [17][20] Group 3 - The report suggests a balanced allocation strategy focusing on technology growth, core assets, and undervalued dividend stocks, particularly in sectors like TMT and consumer goods [9][12][17] - It highlights that after a market bottom, sectors with high growth potential and those aligned with policy direction tend to outperform, with recent declines observed in construction, beauty care, and agriculture sectors [9][12][17] - The report also points out that core assets such as electric vehicles, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage sectors may present investment opportunities as policies continue to support these areas [9][12][17]

下 | --- | --- ...

消费投资偏弱核心 CPI、PPI 均走低，中央财政加码扩张势在必行 事件点评 CPI、PPI 点评（2024.8） 投资要点 8 月总体 CPI 受食品涨价拉动向上，但核心 CPI 受油价下跌渗透、极端高温冲击服务、 耐用品需求不佳的共同影响而走低。PPI 跌幅亦再度加深，国内有效需求仍显乏力。8 月总体CPI和核心CPI走势分化加剧，总体CPI同比再度小幅上行0.1个百分点至0.6%， 为年内次高，主要体现极端高温等影响下食品价格的大幅上涨；而核心 CPI 却再度小幅 下行 0.1 个百分点至 0.3%，为 21Q2 以来新低，能源价格下跌渗透进工业品、极端高温 冲击服务消费、耐用消费品需求不足共同导致这种分化局面。PPI 跌幅亦再度转为加深， 既反映了国际油价下跌的普遍拖累，也显示消费和投资的国内有效需求仍总体相对不 足。 极端高温强降雨拉动生鲜价格，生猪去产能持续推进肉价持续修复，共同推动 8 月食品 价格大涨。8 月食品 CPI 环比再度超季节性大幅上涨 3.4%，同比大幅上行 2.8 个百分 点至 2.8%，仍主要受供给侧两项因素拉动：1）全国普遍高温、局部地区极端强降水， 短期冲击生鲜供给，鲜菜、 ...

Core Views - The report suggests that after a period of reduced trading volume and market bottoming in Q3, there may be opportunities for a rebound in A-shares in Q4 due to credit recovery and policy support [1][5]. Market Trends - The macro environment is favorable for domestic economic and liquidity conditions due to overseas interest rate cuts, which may lead to increased policy efforts in Q4, potentially improving investment and consumption [2][11]. - A-shares are expected to experience a phase of profit recovery and policy-driven valuation uplift in Q4, with large-cap and high-quality small and mid-cap growth stocks likely to outperform [2][5]. - The report indicates that Q4 may present rebound opportunities for A-shares, particularly in technology growth and core assets [2][5]. Industry Configuration - In Q4, there is a need to select timing for high-dividend configurations, with technology growth and core assets presenting potential investment opportunities [2][5]. - The report emphasizes a growth-oriented style for Q4, with large-cap and high-quality small and mid-cap growth stocks expected to lead [2][5]. - Key sectors to watch include TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), new energy vehicles, and pharmaceuticals, which are expected to benefit from liquidity easing and economic recovery [2][5][20]. Macroeconomic Environment - The report highlights that the U.S. job market is weakening, with August non-farm payrolls at 142,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2%, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts [11][12]. - U.S. inflation is showing signs of decline, with July CPI and core CPI at 2.9% and 3.2% respectively, indicating a potential economic slowdown [12][12]. - The report notes that fiscal policy is likely to strengthen in Q4, driven by weak domestic demand and external economic pressures, with historical precedents suggesting increased government spending during downturns [16][20].

美国核心 CPI 强劲反弹，短暂插曲还是趋势逆转？ 事件点评 美国 CPI 点评（2024.8） 投资要点 美国 8 月核心 CPI 如我们预期强劲反弹，是通胀下行路上的插曲，还是可能扭转市场预 期中的陡峭下行路径？强劲通胀的持续性将对年内美联储降息幅度形成决定性影响。据 美国劳工统计局当地时间 9 月 11 日上午公布的数据，美国 8 月 CPI（经季节调整，下 同）、核心 CPI 同比分别为 2.6%和 3.3%，分别较 7 月回落 0.3 个百分点和抬升 0.1 个 百分点，其中核心 CPI 为过去一年半以来的首次反弹；核心 CPI 环比上涨达 0.28%， 符合我们此前的预期，但较市场预期明显更为强劲。原油价格进一步大幅下跌和去年同 期的高基数是导致 8 月整体 CPI 走弱的主要原因。而作为美联储 9 月 FOMC 会议召开 前公布的最后一项重要经济数据，核心 CPI 的再度反弹，一方面意味着美联储 9 月的"首 降"极大概率将采取 25BP 而非 50BP 的幅度；另一方面如果强劲通胀势头得以延续， 可能令美联储年内实施合计较大幅度降息面临更大挑战，从而可能导致美元指数重拾升 势并形成新的外溢性紧 ...

华 发 集 闭 旗 下 个 业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------|----------------------------------------|-------------------------|----------------| | 2024 年 09 月 08 日 \n珂玛科技（ 301611.SZ ） | | | 公司研究●证券研究报告 | 公司快报 | | | | | 电子 \| | 半导体设备Ⅲ | | 国内先进陶瓷材料零部件龙头，显著受益半导体 | 投资评级 | | 买入 -A( | 首次) | | 设备产业链国产化趋势 | 股价 | (2024-09-06) | | 29.37 元 | | | 交易数据 | | | | | 投资要点 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------|----------------------------------|-----------------------|------------| | 2024 年 09 月 10 日 | | | 行业研究●证券研究报告 | | | 封测板块 Q2 总结：盈利能力改善，持续加码前沿 | | | | | | 先进封装 | | | | | | 投资要点 | | | | | | 第三方封测整体盈利能力改善，先进封装为研发重点方向。（1）日月光：对于 | | | | | | 传统封装业务，公司部分产品出现复苏迹象稼动率接近 60% ，先进封装需求产 | 一年行业表现 | | | | | 品线扩展 ...