证 2024 年 11 月 03 日 告 表现 1M 3M 12M 电子(申万) 9.5 26.9 15.5 沪深 300 -3.2 14.9 9.4 行 业 研 究 (%) 电子 沪深300 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 推荐(维持) 投资要点 ▌上周回顾 行业相对表现 ▌英伟达将取代英特尔被纳入道指 券 研 究 报 美国加码对话科技制裁，英伟达即将纳入道指 —电子行业周报 分析师：毛正 S1050521120001 maozheng@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：吕卓阳 S1050523060001 lvzy@cfsc.com.cn 10 月 28 日-11 月 01 日当周，申万一级行业总体处于下跌态 势。其中电子行业下跌 2.51%，位列第 20 位。估值前三的行 业为国防军工、计算机、综合，电子行业市盈率为 51.98。 电子行业细分板块比较，10 月 28 日-11 月 01 日当周，电子 行业细分板块涨跌处于分化的态势。其中，光学元件、面 板、集成电路封测板块的涨幅最大。估值方面，模拟芯片设 计、LED、分立器件板块估值水平位列前三，半导体材料、数 字芯片设计板块估值排 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has focused on its core business, leading to a revenue decline but ongoing optimization of its business structure. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.014 billion yuan, a decrease of 21% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 73 million yuan, compared to a loss of 649 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [2][3]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.970 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, but managed to achieve a net profit of 15 million yuan, compared to a loss of 24 million yuan in Q3 2023. The gross margin increased by 1 percentage point to 4.60% due to business structure optimization [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.014 billion yuan, a 21% decrease year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 73 million yuan, a significant improvement from a loss of 649 million yuan in the same period of 2023. The Q3 revenue was 2.970 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, with a net profit of 15 million yuan [2][3]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 4.60% in Q3 2024, with selling and management expense ratios showing slight changes [2][3]. Business Segments - The company’s breeding segment saw a decrease in output, but profitability was maintained due to rising pig prices and controlled feed costs. The pre-prepared food segment experienced revenue growth in Q3, driven by improved demand during the restaurant peak season and contributions from existing customers [3]. - The company is expanding its product offerings and customer base, focusing on high-value products and enhancing its channel structure to increase sales [3]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to improve its profitability gradually, with projected EPS of 0.09 yuan, 0.17 yuan, and 0.24 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 73, 39, and 28 times for the respective years [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation rating for the pig farming and pet food industries [20]. Core Insights - The pig farming sector's Q3 performance expectations have been met, with a continued decline in industry farming costs. The pet food sector is experiencing rapid growth in domestic and international demand, leading to significant profit increases for domestic companies [16][19]. - In Q3 2024, the pig farming sector achieved a total net profit of 188.4 billion yuan, with leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs reporting net profits of 96.52 billion yuan and 50.81 billion yuan, respectively [18][19]. - The average price of live pigs in China reached a peak of 21.07 yuan per kilogram in Q3 before slightly declining, maintaining a high level that supports profitability for pig farming companies [17][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review - The average price of live pigs in China was 17.35 yuan per kilogram as of November 1, 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 19.66% [31]. - The total pig inventory as of Q3 2024 was 42.694 million heads, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.80% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.47% [31]. 2. Q3 Performance - Major pig farming companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and New Hope reported Q3 revenues exceeding 100 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.3%, 22.0%, and -25.9%, respectively [17][18]. - The cost control among leading companies has improved, with Muyuan Foods reporting a complete cost of 13.7 yuan per kilogram in September 2024, down over 2 yuan from the beginning of the year [18]. 3. Pet Food Sector - The pet food sector has seen significant revenue growth, with companies like Zhongchong Co., Guibao Pet, and Yiyi Co. reporting Q3 revenues of 12.32 million yuan, 12.45 million yuan, and 5.03 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.6%, 18.9%, and 40.7% [19]. - The net profits for these companies also showed substantial increases, with Guibao Pet achieving a 114.8% year-on-year growth in net profit [19]. 4. Fund Holdings - The report notes a slight decrease in the fund's heavy market value ratio for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, with Wens Foodstuffs holding the largest market value among pig farming companies [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's performance is under significant pressure, with revenue and profit falling short of expectations. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 1.191 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.41% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 56 million yuan, down 88.20% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is undergoing a structural adjustment in its product offerings, with a shift in expense allocation from B-end to C-end, leading to a decline in sales of mid-to-high-end products. This has resulted in a downward trend in product structure and revenue performance [3] - Despite short-term performance challenges, the company is expected to continue its expense reform, aiming for long-term growth. The price increase of its premium products indicates a strengthening brand influence, and the acceleration of sales for its secondary high-end products reflects an improvement in market impact [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, total revenue was 1.191 billion yuan, down 44.41% year-on-year, and net profit was 56 million yuan, down 88.20% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, total revenue was 197 million yuan, a decrease of 67.24% year-on-year, with a net loss of 65 million yuan [2] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 71.81%, down 7.09 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 4.74%, down 17.60 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 64.04%, down 11.65 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was -32.77%, down 42.22 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Operating cash flow was under pressure, with net cash flow from operating activities for Q1-Q3 2024 at -411 million yuan, compared to 57 million yuan in the same period last year [2] Expense Management - The company has shifted its expense allocation strategy, focusing more on consumer-oriented spending, which has led to a rigid expense structure and high initial investments. This has contributed to the underperformance in profits [3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 0.33 yuan, 0.46 yuan, and 0.60 yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.87 yuan, 1.01 yuan, and 1.18 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 155, 111, and 85 times for the respective years [4][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company has experienced significant growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue reaching 20.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.95 billion yuan, up 89.83% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights a decrease in gold production and sales volume in Q3 2024, with production down 4.54% year-on-year and sales up 4.52% year-on-year [1] - The report anticipates continued revenue growth, projecting revenues of 86.99 billion yuan, 92.29 billion yuan, and 92.29 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 16.78 billion yuan, 17.66 billion yuan, and 18.66 billion yuan [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 20.27 billion yuan, a 19.88% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.95 billion yuan, reflecting an 89.83% increase year-on-year [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 62.23 billion yuan, up 22.93% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.05 billion yuan, a 112.59% increase year-on-year [1] Production and Sales - The company achieved gold production of 10.75 tons in the first three quarters of 2024, a 5.05% increase year-on-year, and sales of 10.95 tons, a 4.95% increase year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, gold production was 3.20 tons, down 4.54% year-on-year, while sales were 3.36 tons, up 4.52% year-on-year [1] Cost Management - The report indicates a reduction in gold sales costs in Q3 2024 to 272.75 yuan per gram, down 8.93% year-on-year, while the all-in sustaining cost was 332.72 yuan per gram, up 11.13% year-on-year [1] - The report notes that the cost of gold production from overseas mines has decreased, with specific costs detailed for different mining operations [1] Future Projections - The company is projected to have a PE ratio of 18.6, 17.7, and 16.7 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a positive outlook based on ongoing cost reduction and project advancements [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the new energy vehicle industry [2] Core Views - Strong demand and high cost-performance of quality assets are driving the market. In September 2024, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.307 million and 1.287 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 48.8% and 42.3%. For the first nine months of 2024, production and sales totaled 8.316 million and 8.32 million units, with year-on-year growth of 31.7% and 32.5% [1][2] - The industry is benefiting from robust policy support and the continuous launch of quality models, such as NIO's L60 and XPeng's M03, which have received positive market feedback. In October, several companies demonstrated strong performance, confirming the strong demand side [1] - The release of CATL's "Xiaoyao" super hybrid battery, set to be used in over 30 models from brands like Avita, Li Auto, and others, indicates ongoing technological advancements driving demand [1] - Key companies in the energy storage sector, such as CATL and EVE Energy, are showing strong performance, reflecting the overall resilience of the industry [1] Summary by Sections Market Review - The new energy vehicle index, lithium battery index, fuel cell index, charging pile index, and energy storage index experienced weekly changes of -0.84%, -3.72%, -0.51%, -2.62%, and -5.30%, respectively. The top five gainers in the lithium battery index included Yicheng New Energy (22%), Foshan Plastics (12%), and others, while the top five losers included Haike New Energy (-17%) and others [3] Industry Dynamics - Lithium prices have seen a slight decline, with carbonate lithium priced at 73,900 CNY/ton (up 0.9% from last week) and hydroxide lithium at 67,000 CNY/ton (down 0.2%). Cobalt prices dropped by 4.4% to 174,000 CNY/ton, while phosphate iron lithium rose by 0.6% to 33,100 CNY/ton [4][28] Key Company Announcements - BYD and other companies reported impressive electric vehicle sales for October, with BYD achieving 503,000 units (up 67% year-on-year) and Zeekr reaching 25,000 units (up 92% year-on-year) [5][35] Focus Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies with buy ratings include EVE Energy, CATL, and others, with projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024E and 2025E showing positive growth trends [6][7][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Angel Yeast (600298.SH) [1][3] Core Views - The demand for yeast products is showing a significant recovery, with the company achieving a revenue of 10.912 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, representing a 13% year-on-year increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 0.953 billion yuan, up 4% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights that the company's Q3 2024 revenue was 3.738 billion yuan, a 27% increase year-on-year, driven by a slow recovery in domestic baking and continued high growth in overseas markets [1] - The gross profit margin decreased by 4 percentage points to 21.35% in Q3 2024, primarily due to a significant rise in shipping costs [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10.912 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.953 billion yuan, with a 13% and 4% increase year-on-year respectively. In Q3 alone, revenue was 3.738 billion yuan, marking a 27% increase year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross profit margin decreased to 21.35% in Q3 2024, attributed to rising shipping costs [1] Product and Market Analysis - The revenue from yeast and deep processing products, sugar products, packaging products, and other products in Q3 2024 was 2.592 billion yuan, 0.309 billion yuan, 0.111 billion yuan, and 0.690 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 5%, 16%, and 77% [1] - Domestic revenue in Q3 2024 was 2.269 billion yuan, a 21% increase year-on-year, driven by increased home consumption and demand for yeast extract [1] - Overseas revenue reached 1.433 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a 30% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in regions such as the Middle East, Africa, Europe, and Asia-Pacific [1] Future Outlook - The report anticipates improved profit performance in Q4 2024, supported by a downward trend in molasses prices and alleviated shipping costs. The company is expected to continue its global expansion and capacity construction [3][1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company has shown robust growth with continuous profit release, as evidenced by its Q1-Q3 2024 performance, which includes total revenue of 4.088 billion yuan (up 6.29% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 555.6 million yuan (up 33.00% year-on-year) [1] - The report highlights the company's focus on product structure upgrades and the successful performance of its Wuling liquor brand, with revenue from products priced above 100 yuan increasing by 15.71% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to benefit from internal reform dividends, with slight adjustments made to its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, total revenue reached 4.088 billion yuan, with a net profit of 555.6 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.00% [1] - The gross margin and net margin for Q1-Q3 2024 were 66.21% and 13.61%, respectively, showing slight improvements compared to the previous year [1] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for Q1-Q3 was 642 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.54% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from products priced above 100 yuan was 2.044 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, up 15.71% year-on-year, while revenue from products priced below 100 yuan was 2.020 billion yuan, up 8.35% year-on-year [1] - The company’s revenue from different channels showed stability, with dealer sales increasing by 12.83% year-on-year [1] Profit Forecasts - The report adjusts the company's EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.89, 1.06, and 1.25 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 20, and 17 times [2] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 815 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 22.3% compared to the previous year [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue has slightly come under pressure, with a year-on-year increase of 5% in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 2.717 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 28% to 203 million yuan [2][3]. - The UHT factory has officially commenced production, and the company is continuously adjusting its distribution channels to enhance performance [3][4]. - The company is expected to see further profit elasticity as the production capacity of cream products ramps up and market demand recovers [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 936 million yuan, a decrease of 1% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 35% to 68 million yuan [2][3]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 1 percentage point to 31.34%, primarily due to changes in product structure and rising prices of imported dairy products [2][3]. Production and Product Development - The second cream factory has completed sterile validation and is set to enter full production in Q4, which will support the company's high-end cream production for the year-end peak season [3][4]. - The introduction of new cream products has shown stable growth, although the overall revenue from frozen baked goods has been impacted by adjustments in product listings at key retail channels [3]. Profit Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 1.58, 1.86, and 2.25 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23, 20, and 16 times [4][6].

Group 1: Global Fund Flows Overview - As of October 30, global stock markets experienced a net outflow of $1.4 billion, while bonds saw a net inflow of $18 billion, cash inflows totaled $9.6 billion, gold inflows were $0.5 billion, and cryptocurrencies had a significant inflow of $3 billion [2][10]. Group 2: Bond and Gold Fund Flows - The overall net inflow for global bonds reached $18 billion, with sovereign bonds contributing $2.5 billion, investment-grade bonds $16.2 billion, and high-yield bonds $1.4 billion. Gold recorded a net inflow of $0.5 billion, marking four consecutive weeks of inflows [3][22][23]. Group 3: Global Stock Market Flows by Region, Sector, and Style - Developed markets saw a net inflow of $4.1 billion, with the U.S. contributing $3.7 billion, Japan $3.1 billion, and Hong Kong $0.3 billion. In contrast, emerging markets faced a net outflow of $5.4 billion, primarily driven by China with a $4.4 billion outflow and India with a $0.5 billion outflow [4][27]. - In the U.S. equity market, sectors such as industrials had a net inflow of $0.7 billion, financials $0.6 billion, and healthcare $0.3 billion, while materials, energy, consumer, utilities, and real estate sectors experienced net outflows [32]. - Style-wise, large-cap stocks saw a net inflow of $2.1 billion, continuing a streak of 28 weeks of inflows, although the amount decreased significantly. Small-cap stocks faced a net outflow of $2.4 billion for three consecutive weeks, while growth and value styles also recorded outflows of $1.8 billion and $0.7 billion, respectively [4][36][38]. Group 4: China Equity Market Highlights - As of October 30, the Chinese equity market saw a total net outflow of $4.4 billion, with active foreign capital outflow of $0.5 billion, passive foreign capital outflow of $0.8 billion, and domestic passive capital outflow of $3.1 billion [6][41]. - Sector-wise, technology faced a significant outflow of $1.3 billion, financials $0.34 billion, while healthcare recorded a net inflow of $0.26 billion [51]. - In Hong Kong, foreign capital experienced a net outflow of $0.08 billion, while there was a net inflow of $0.4 billion between mainland and Hong Kong funds [45].