Group 1 - The report suggests a bullish stance on A-shares with a half-position strategy, anticipating a continuation of the rebound and recommending a switch to the 1000 index after the Spring Festival [1][30] - The report maintains a positive outlook on Hong Kong stocks, citing a recovery in the fundamentals and a cautious but optimistic sentiment in the market [2][32] - For U.S. stocks, a half-position bullish strategy is recommended, as the market navigates between rising inflation and slight economic cooling, with opportunities in risk assets during fluctuations [3][29] Group 2 - A-shares are expected to experience a style shift from large-cap blue chips to small-cap growth stocks around the Spring Festival, with historical data indicating better performance for small-cap stocks post-festival [4][35] - The report highlights the effectiveness of industry rotation strategies in A-shares, with a focus on small-cap timing strategies for potential accumulation after the Spring Festival [4][35] - The report indicates that the current market environment allows for high trading volumes, which supports the effectiveness of the industry rotation strategy [4][35] Group 3 - The ETF portfolio for the week shows a 1.57% increase, with a year-to-date absolute return of 21.62%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 9.4% [5][38] - The report identifies strong technical performance in sectors such as materials, military, semiconductors, consumer electronics, batteries, and robotics, suggesting a focus on these areas for potential gains [5][38] - The report notes that the all-weather strategy has achieved a weekly increase of 0.75%, with a cumulative return of 3.12% and a new net value high [7][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of January 19, 2025 [2][11]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a surge in innovation drug licensing, with Chinese companies increasingly participating in global clinical pipelines, particularly in areas like ADCs and CAR-T therapies [3]. - The ongoing centralized procurement in 2025 is expected to continue, with innovative drugs remaining a significant growth driver in the domestic market [5]. - The introduction of a Category C drug list is anticipated to enhance the value ceiling for innovative drugs through collaboration with commercial insurance [6]. - The weight loss drug sector is evolving, with differentiated strategies creating more collaboration opportunities among companies [7]. - The retail pharmacy sector is undergoing a consolidation phase, benefiting leading companies as market concentration increases [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.53 percentage points over the past week, with a weekly increase of 2.67% [20]. - Over the past month, the pharmaceutical sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.41 percentage points, with a decline of 7.70% [23]. 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical sector's recent one-month decline of 7.70% indicates underperformance compared to the CSI 300 index [34]. - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical sector is 29.57, which is below the five-year historical average of 33.28 [38]. 3. Recent Research Achievements - The research team has published several in-depth reports highlighting trends in the pharmaceutical industry, including the growth of blood products and the acceleration of inhalation formulations [40]. 4. Important Industry Policies and News - Recent policies from the National Medical Insurance Administration aim to enhance the efficiency of medical insurance fund settlements, promoting the coordinated development of healthcare and the pharmaceutical industry [43]. - Notable recent news includes the approval of new drugs by the National Medical Products Administration, indicating ongoing innovation in the sector [46]. 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report includes a list of recommended companies with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, highlighting potential investment opportunities [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [4][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a significant rebound in its advertising revenue and membership growth, with effective members reaching 73.31 million in 2024, leading to a membership revenue exceeding 5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18% [2][3]. - The company anticipates a strong content supply in 2025, with various new shows and series planned, which is expected to drive further growth in both membership and advertising revenues [3][10]. - The forecasted revenues for 2024-2026 are 14.745 billion, 16.197 billion, and 18.186 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.409 billion, 2.040 billion, and 2.791 billion yuan [10][12]. Summary by Sections Membership and Revenue Growth - The company reported a total of 73.31 million effective members by the end of 2024, indicating a solid foundation of quality content and the success of its international app expansion plan [3]. - Membership revenue is projected to be over 5 billion yuan in 2024, marking an 18% increase year-on-year [3]. Advertising Revenue and Content Supply - Advertising revenue is showing positive growth, with a projected 8% increase in the second half of 2024 compared to the first half [3]. - The company plans to launch a variety of new content in 2025, including dramas and variety shows, which is expected to enhance viewer engagement and drive revenue [3][10]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 14.745 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 1.409 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decrease of 60.4% year-on-year due to tax adjustments [10][12]. - For 2025, revenues are expected to rise to 16.197 billion yuan, with net profits rebounding to 2.040 billion yuan, a 44.8% increase [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a recovery in its main business in 2025, driven by new demands and supplies in the experience economy [4][5] - Despite a projected loss in 2024, the company has a solid order backlog that lays a good foundation for future performance recovery [4][6] - The integration of virtual and real experiences is anticipated to drive a second growth curve through the development of VR/MR and AIGC technologies [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit for Q4 2024 ranging from -0.179 to +0.271 billion yuan, with a non-recurring profit between -0.11 to +0.265 billion yuan, indicating a decline compared to Q4 2023 [4] - The total revenue for 2024 is expected to be 2.065 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.2% from 2023, with a projected recovery in 2025 to 2.295 billion yuan [9][10] Profitability Forecast - The company anticipates a net profit of -1.0 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 1.5 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.6 billion yuan in 2026 [7][9] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are -51.5 for 2024, 34 for 2025, and 19.8 for 2026, reflecting the expected turnaround in profitability [7][9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively expanding its cultural tourism business and enhancing its IP incubation and technological investments [5][6] - A partnership with the Yuanmingyuan has been established to create immersive cultural experiences, which is expected to enhance the company's offerings in virtual tourism and historical education [5][6] Market Position - The company is positioned as a connector between new cultural supply and consumer demand in the tourism sector, leveraging its strong order backlog and technological advancements [5][6]

2025 年 01 月 20 日 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：朱珠 S1050521110001 zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-01-17 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 13.56 | | 总市值（亿元） | 86 | | 总股本（百万股） | 634 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 634 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 9.81-17.27 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 67.91 | 市场表现 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 横店影视 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《横店影视（603103）：2024 年 跨越低谷新增可期内容需求韧性持 续》2024-03-08 2024 年业绩承压落地 看 2025 年内容新供给 —横店影视（603103.SH）公司事件点评报告 2、《横店影视（603103）：2023Q4 承压落地 2024 年跨越低谷新增可 期》2024-01-29 3、《横店影视（603103）：主业修 复下沉市场具增量后续看优质内容 供给》2023-1 ...

业绩承压落地 2025 年β与α有望双修复 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：朱珠 S1050521110001 zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-01-17 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 11.32 | | 总市值（亿元） | 239 | | 总股本（百万股） | 2112 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 2040 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 9-16.1 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 371.68 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 万达电影 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 2025 年 01 月 20 日 1、《万达电影（002739）：龙头地 位持续夯实 AI 及 IP 业务具新增潜 力》2024-04-30 2、《万达电影（002739）：迎新高 层破茧成蝶有望开启新篇章》2024- 01-30 —万达电影（002739.SZ）公司事件点评报告 万达电影发布 2024 年年度业绩预告公告：2024 年公司归母 净利润-9.5~-8.5 亿元，扣非净利润-10.7~-9.7 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's main business segments, including film and children's products, show positive trends, but performance is impacted by asset impairment losses, leading to profit fluctuations. However, with a lighter load, performance improvement is expected in 2025 [5][8] - The company is leveraging its IP (Intellectual Property) to explore new supply opportunities, benefiting from a flexible supply chain and partnerships with well-known brands to develop various product lines [6] - The integration of AI with IP is seen as a dual driving force for growth, with the company launching AI-powered plush toys and investing in VR/AR technologies to enhance its product offerings [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit loss of 240 to 290 million yuan for 2024, primarily due to asset impairment losses totaling approximately 330 million yuan [4] - For 2024, the company expects revenues of 2.81 billion yuan, with a slight growth rate of 2.6%, followed by projected revenues of 2.97 billion yuan in 2025 and 3.21 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 5.9% and 8.0% respectively [10][11] Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts a return to profitability in 2025, with a projected net profit of 149 million yuan, and further growth to 205 million yuan in 2026, indicating a significant recovery from the losses in 2024 [10][11] - The report highlights the potential for the company's IP to drive new revenue streams through innovative products and emotional engagement with consumers, particularly in the AI toy market [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its commercial viability through IP development and has established collaborations with major gaming and tech companies to expand its product range [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's flexible supply chain in adapting to market demands and launching new products effectively [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the AI sector, including iFlytek, Cambricon, DingTong Technology, and Yidao Information [12][47]. Core Insights - The U.S. government has implemented the first global AI chip export restrictions, which will significantly impact the global AI technology and chip market, potentially intensifying competition and driving the AI industry towards a multipolar development [4][28]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing expansion of NVIDIA's AI supercomputer production, indicating a substantial order volume and a continued reliance on copper connections for technology applications [12][46]. Summary by Sections AI Chip Ban - On January 13, 2025, the Biden administration released the "Interim Final Rule on Artificial Intelligence Diffusion," detailing export restrictions on AI chips and related technologies [3][21]. - The new regulations categorize countries into three tiers, with the first tier including the U.S. and 18 allies, allowing unrestricted access to advanced AI technologies [4][24]. AI Applications - Japanese startup Sakana AI introduced a machine learning system called Transformer2, which dynamically adjusts model weights based on task requirements, showcasing significant advancements in efficiency and task-specific performance [5][32]. - QuillBot experienced a 10.35% increase in search traffic, indicating growing interest in AI applications [30]. AI Financing Trends - Yidao Technology and Prophecy secured significant funding, with Yidao raising hundreds of millions of RMB and Prophecy obtaining $47 million in Series B funding [11][36]. - Yidao Technology showcased an AI laundry robot at CES 2025, demonstrating its capabilities in multi-modal perception and AI computing [11][36]. Market Performance - The AI computing index and AI application index showed fluctuations, with notable gains and losses among key players, reflecting the dynamic nature of the market [38][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - Domestic robot manufacturers are rapidly advancing, presenting promising investment opportunities in the robot supply chain [1] - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from the continuation and expansion of the vehicle replacement policy, which is projected to stimulate sales significantly in 2025 [8][9] - The report highlights the performance of various companies and sectors within the automotive industry, emphasizing the potential for growth in both vehicle manufacturing and parts supply [41] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance has shown a 4.4% increase, outperforming the broader market by 2.2 percentage points [15] - The passenger vehicle market experienced a decline in retail sales, with January's average daily retail sales dropping 28% year-on-year [33] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - For robots: Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Top Group, and others [41] - For automotive: New Spring Co., Zhejiang Rongtai, and others [41] - Specific recommendations for electric vehicle manufacturers and parts suppliers are highlighted, indicating a strong growth potential in these areas [9][41] Policy Impact - The 2025 vehicle replacement policy is expected to drive an increase in retail sales by over 580 billion yuan, with an estimated 400,000 to 500,000 additional vehicles sold [7][8] - The report notes that the expansion of the vehicle replacement policy will likely lead to a significant uptick in consumer purchasing behavior [8][9] Company Performance and Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for various companies, indicating a positive outlook for many within the automotive sector [42] - Companies such as Jianghuai Automobile and Sailyus are highlighted for their potential to capture market share due to their collaborations with Huawei [9][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the pig farming industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The average price of pigs is expected to decline to 12 yuan/kg in 2025, with quarterly averages projected at 14, 13, 12, and 11 yuan/kg for Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively [3][24] - Demand for pork is anticipated to remain weak, unable to support prices, while supply continues to be the primary factor influencing prices [3][23] - The industry is experiencing a continuous increase in production capacity, leading to an expected rise in pork supply [4][23] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of pigs is projected to drop to 12 yuan/kg in 2025, with a downward trend expected throughout the year [3][24] - The supply side is seeing a consistent increase in production capacity, with the number of breeding sows rising by 9.60% since the end of the large-scale epidemic in February 2023 [4][23] - The current average price for pigs is 15.73 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.41 yuan/kg [24][43] - The cost of pig farming is closely linked to corn and soybean meal prices, with potential fluctuations based on South American harvests [5][25] - The price of piglets has rebounded to 448.1 yuan/head, a 10.7% increase week-on-week, but this is viewed as a short-term supply-demand phenomenon [6][26] - Companies with cost advantages and expansion capabilities are recommended for investment, as they are likely to perform better in a challenging market [7][28] Pet Economy - The pet hospital market in first-tier cities is becoming saturated, leading to price competition, while second-tier cities present significant growth opportunities [9][30] Outdoor Sportswear - The sales performance in Q4 2024 is expected to improve significantly compared to Q3, driven by consumer stimulus policies and online shopping events [10][32]