Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in the humanoid robot sector, specifically focusing on Tesla's Optimus project [2]. Core Insights - The demand for dexterous hands arises from flexible manufacturing, with humanoid robots being the most aligned with human daily production and life needs. The integration of machine learning and brain-like intelligence will enhance the smart capabilities of humanoid robots, making dexterous hands a key component for improving flexible operational capabilities [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Dexterous Hands as Key End Effectors - Dexterous hands are complex end effectors crucial for robot performance, significantly impacting flexibility and usability. They differ from traditional industrial robotic hands, which are designed for specific tasks and lack flexibility and precision [14][15]. - The evolution of dexterous hands is driven by the need for flexible manufacturing, allowing for small-batch production and adaptability to environmental changes [16]. 2. Key Changes in Tesla's Next-Generation Dexterous Hand - Tesla's next-generation dexterous hand will feature three major changes aimed at increasing the value of lead screws, including the transition to external drive systems, the replacement of worm gears with lead screws, and the use of tendons instead of torsion springs [55][57]. - The new design will enhance precision, load capacity, and operational efficiency, with the current Optimus dexterous hand achieving 22 degrees of freedom, comparable to human hands [51][58]. 3. Key Components of Dexterous Hands - The most valuable components of dexterous hands include lead screws, motors, and reducers. Recommended companies for investment in these components are listed, including Shuanglin Co., Best, and Beite Technology for lead screws, and Mingzhi Electric and Zhaowei Electromechanical for motors and reducers [8][9]. - Hollow cup motors are highlighted for their energy-saving and responsive control characteristics, making them suitable for high-performance applications like robotics [61][62].

2025 年 01 月 05 日 业绩预期开启情绪分化 关注图书订货会与 CES 攻守兼备 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：朱珠 | S1050521110001 | | --- | --- | | zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：于越 | S1050522080001 | | yvyue@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 传媒(申万) -12.8 -1.1 -4.5 沪深 300 -4.5 -6.0 11.7 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 传媒 沪深300 相关研究 1、《传媒行业动态研究报告：内需 系列从 INS 新乐园看首发经济与体 验经济》2024-12-24 2、《传媒行业周报：从谷子到首发 经济到社交礼物经济 跨年迎贺岁春 节档》2024-12-22 3、《传媒行业周报：谷歌字节跳动 探索 AI 观影补贴内容新供给迎跨 年》2024-12-15 ▌ 本周观点更新 2025 年开年，将迎接农历新年，年报预告业绩已渐开启，主 题板块情绪面分化。短期业绩预期带来传媒互联 ...

证 2025 年 01 月 03 日 告 基本数据 2025-01-02 当前股价（元） 1488 总市值（亿元） 18692 总股本（百万股） 1256 流通股本（百万股） 1256 52 周价格范围（元） 1261-1770 日均成交额（百万元） 5294.21 公 司 研 究 圆满收官，彰显韧性 —贵州茅台（600519.SH）公司事件点评报告 2025 年 1 月 2 日，贵州茅台发布 2024 年度生产经营情况公 告。 投资要点 ▌全年业绩圆满收官，Q4 茅台酒表现较优 全年收入目标圆满完成，稳健经营韧性强。2024 年公司预计 实现总营收/归母净利润分别约 1738/857 亿元，分别同增约 15.44%/14.67%，归母净利率 49.31%（同减 0.33pcts）。产 量增速合理控制，系列酒全年放量较快。1）酒类营收约 1704 亿元（同增约 15.75%），其中茅台酒/系列酒营收分别 约 1458/246 亿元，分别同增约 15.18%/19.24%，茅台酒占比 -0.42pcts。2）生产茅台酒/系列酒基酒分别约 5.63/4.81 万 吨，分别同比-1.58%/+12.02%。Q4 系 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the pig farming industry, suggesting a left-side layout strategy focusing on companies with cost advantages and capacity expansion capabilities [20][106]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry is entering a new cost competition landscape, with a focus on companies that can balance cost advantages and capacity expansion [111]. - The pet food market is expected to accelerate its expansion, with a notable shift towards domestic brands and increased competition [18][23]. - The outdoor sports industry is experiencing a shift to single-digit growth, with various niche segments showing promising potential [12][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming Industry - The industry is witnessing a significant rebound in pig prices after a year of losses, with the average price expected to reach 16.81 yuan/kg in 2024, a 1.79 yuan/kg increase from 2023 [42]. - The supply of pigs is tightening due to a large-scale epidemic in 2023, leading to a rapid decrease in breeding stock and creating a supply gap that supports price increases [44][50]. - Cost of pig farming is entering a downward cycle, with average costs projected at 14.62 yuan/kg in 2024, down 1.56 yuan/kg from the previous year, enhancing profit margins [47][70]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on companies with strong cost structures and capacity expansion strategies, recommending firms like Juxing Agriculture and Zhengbang Technology [85][106]. 2. Pet Economy - The domestic pet food market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on the emergence of the "80/20 rule" where a few brands dominate the market [15][23]. - The pet health sector is seeing a rapid increase in demand for veterinary services, with the market size reaching 735 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 24.5% of the overall pet market [17]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing domestic production of pet vaccines, particularly for cats, which is expected to replace imported products, with companies like Ruipubio being highlighted for investment [11][16]. 3. Outdoor Sports Industry - The outdoor sports sector is transitioning to a phase of single-digit growth, with various niche markets such as running, climbing, and winter sports showing strong performance [19][24]. - The report notes that compared to developed countries, there is still significant room for growth in per capita spending and market penetration in the outdoor sports segment [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the power equipment sector [3][60]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that AI investments are robust, and related power equipment is expected to benefit from the growth in data center business volumes [12][60]. - The energy demand from data centers is increasing significantly due to the penetration of big data technologies, impacting the development of data center energy storage [5][12]. - In 2023, the global number of data center racks is approximately 25.5 million, with a new installed capacity of about 13.1 GWh for data center energy storage [5][12]. Summary by Sections Investment Insights - The report suggests focusing on specific segments within the power equipment sector that are likely to benefit from AI data center growth, including liquid cooling, transformers, UPS, and busbars [60]. - Recommended companies include: - Liquid cooling: Invec (新能源车组覆盖), Tongfei Co. - Transformer segment: Jinpan Technology - UPS segment: Kehua Data - Busbar segment: Weiteng Electric [60]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the recent developments in the photovoltaic sector, including the listing of polysilicon futures and the signing of a self-regulatory agreement for solar power [37]. - It notes the establishment of a local virtual power plant standardization committee in Shenzhen, which has connected 59 virtual power plant operators with a total capacity of 3.8 million kilowatts [37]. Market Performance - The power equipment sector experienced a decline of 0.57% recently, ranking 13th among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.52 percentage points [136][160]. - The report provides insights into the performance of specific companies and their earnings forecasts, indicating a mixed outlook for the sector [60].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the performance of Shenhuo Co., which reported a revenue of 10.093 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.02% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.96% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was 1.254 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 8.00% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.09% [1] - The report indicates that the company has a strong focus on shareholder returns, actively increasing the frequency of dividends [6] Group 2 - In Q3 2024, the average price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River nonferrous market was 19,565 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 3.76% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.74% [2] - The average price of alumina in Q3 2024 was 3,844 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.64% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.81% [2] - The average price of pre-baked anodes for electrolytic aluminum in Q3 2024 was 4,320 yuan per ton, showing a year-on-year decrease of 10.28% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.14% [2] Group 3 - Shenhuo New Materials' Phase I project features core equipment such as aluminum foil rolling mills and slitting machines, all selected from internationally advanced levels [3] - The company has completed the commissioning of its Phase II project, which has an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of new energy power battery materials [24] - The report predicts that Shenhuo Co. will achieve revenues of 37.72 billion yuan, 40.19 billion yuan, and 42.62 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, maintaining a "buy" investment rating [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [3][15]. Core Insights - The company is extending its research and manufacturing capabilities in mechatronics into the robotics field, having developed robot electric joint assembly products that have been validated by customers and are beginning small-scale production, with expectations for mass supply next year, which could open up long-term growth opportunities [3]. - The company plans to establish a joint venture with Zhiyuan Robotics to jointly develop the humanoid robot market [3]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 85.00 billion, 128.63 billion, and 157.19 billion yuan, respectively, with EPS of 0.38, 0.81, and 1.00 yuan, leading to corresponding PE ratios of 40.1, 19.0, and 15.4 times [3]. Financial Projections - The company's main revenue for 2023 is projected at 5,761 million yuan, with a growth rate of -21.6%, followed by 8,500 million yuan in 2024 (47.5% growth), 12,863 million yuan in 2025 (51.3% growth), and 15,719 million yuan in 2026 (22.2% growth) [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover from -543 million yuan in 2023 to 469 million yuan in 2024, 986 million yuan in 2025, and 1,218 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -184.1%, 110.4%, and 23.5%, respectively [4]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to improve from -0.44 yuan in 2023 to 0.38 yuan in 2024, 0.81 yuan in 2025, and 1.00 yuan in 2026 [4]. - The company's ROE is expected to turn positive, from -13.5% in 2023 to 9.9% in 2024, 15.7% in 2025, and 14.8% in 2026 [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" with an expected relative increase of over 10% compared to the representative securities market index [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant advancements in the robotics sector, particularly focusing on humanoid robots and their applications in various industries [8][31] - The report emphasizes the potential market growth for intelligent robotics, projecting a market size of $10 billion by 2030 [9] - Key companies in the sector include Star Dynamics, Best, and Beite Technology, which are recognized for their technological capabilities and market positioning [31] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The automotive sector has shown a performance increase of 16.3% over 12 months, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's increase of 14.7% [16] - The report notes that the sales of new energy vehicles in major countries reached 1.75 million units in November, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40% [9] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Star Dynamics is highlighted for its advanced technology and product offerings, including the humanoid robot STAR1 and the dexterous hand XHAND1 [17] - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [21] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends stocks in specific segments such as double screw rods (Shuanglin Co., Best, Beite Technology) and dexterous hands (Jiechang Drive, Leisai Intelligent, Zhaowei Electromechanical) [31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NVIDIA (NVDA.O) and also recommends buying for Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Google (GOOGL.O) [9][16]. Core Insights - NVIDIA's Q3 2024 revenue reached $35.08 billion, exceeding market expectations of $33.25 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 94%. The GAAP net profit was $19.3 billion, up 109% year-on-year, and diluted EPS was $0.78, reflecting a 111% increase year-on-year. Total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached $91.17 billion, a 135% year-on-year increase [4][11]. - The data center business performed exceptionally well, with revenue of $30.8 billion, a 112% year-on-year increase, accounting for 87.7% of total revenue. This growth was driven by strong demand for NVIDIA's Hopper GPU computing platform [12][16]. - The gaming and AI PC business generated $3.3 billion in revenue, a 15% year-on-year increase, benefiting from back-to-school promotions and increased demand for GeForce RTX GPUs [4][16]. - The automotive and robotics segment reported revenue of $449 million, a 72% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand for NVIDIA Orin in the autonomous driving market [15][16]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue: $35.08 billion, up 94% YoY [4][11] - GAAP net profit: $19.3 billion, up 109% YoY [11] - Total revenue for first three quarters: $91.17 billion, up 135% YoY [4] Business Segments - Data Center: Revenue of $30.8 billion, up 112% YoY, 87.7% of total revenue [12][16] - Gaming and AI PC: Revenue of $3.3 billion, up 15% YoY [4][16] - Automotive and Robotics: Revenue of $449 million, up 72% YoY [15][16] Market Outlook - NVIDIA's technology advantage in AI chips is expected to strengthen with the gradual increase in production capacity of Blackwell architecture products [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating an expected growth of over 10% relative to the benchmark index [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tesla's revenue for Q3 2024 reached $25.182 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.85%, with a net profit of $2.167 billion, reflecting a growth of 16.95% [13]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Tesla's energy generation and storage business, which saw a revenue increase of 52.14% year-on-year [13]. - The demand for computing power continues to grow, with capital expenditures increasing by 43% year-on-year, primarily driven by investments in AI technology and data center expansion [15][18]. - The report suggests that the integration of AI technology is expected to drive long-term growth in the automotive market, with a focus on companies like Microsoft and Google [19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector has shown a performance of -7.1% over the last month, 11.0% over the last three months, and 4.4% over the last year, compared to the CSI 300 index which has shown a performance of 0.5%, -2.1%, and 14.7% respectively [1]. Company Performance - Tesla's Q3 2024 vehicle production reached 470,000 units, a 9% increase year-on-year, with deliveries also hitting a record of 463,000 units [13]. - The gross margin for the energy business was reported at 30.5%, an increase of 596 basis points, attributed to the expansion of Supercharging and service operations [14]. Financial Projections - The report projects that Tesla's capital expenditures will continue to grow, with Q3 2024 expenditures reaching $3.513 billion, a 43% increase year-on-year [18]. - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) projections for Microsoft and Google, with ratings of "Buy" for both companies [21].