2025 年 01 月 06 日 地缘局势及需求担忧施压，国际油价大跌。截至 1 月 3 日收 盘，WTI 原油价格为 76.51 美元/桶，较上周上涨 3.15%；布 伦特原油价格为 73.96 美元/桶，较上周上涨 4.76%。短期内 油价仍受地缘政治以及市场预期变化影响较大,下周油价或将 波动运行。鉴于目前油价四季度面临较大压力我们看好炼化 端出现成本压力缓解后盈利有望提升的中国石化，同时由于 中国石油和中国海油回调较多，已经反映了油价下跌，继续 看好回调后的中国石油和中国海油。 甲醛、二氯甲烷等涨幅居前，建议继续关注钛 白粉板块和轮胎板块 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 基础化工(申万) -9.7 -7.3 -7.1 沪深 300 -5.0 -6.0 13.4 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -30 相关研究 1、《基础化工行业深度报告：成本 优势构筑国内化工行业龙头核心竞 争力》2024-12-25 ...

2025 年 01 月 05 日 美元强势或暂歇 分析师：吕思江 S1050522030001 lvsj@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：马晨 S1050522050001 machen@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 投资要点 ▌ 一周鑫思路 重要指标更新： 海外央行流动性：5.88 万亿美元→5.89 万亿美元，边际 小幅上升基本维持稳定。进入债务上限博弈时段，历史上 看美债供应下降+TGA 账户比历史同时段存量高--》短期流 动性无忧，风险在后半月--》美股科技股、比特币、黄金 反弹，更关注印度、日经、欧股；美国 FCI 本周恢复到 120ma 以上；跨境资金流入印度和香港市场；发达市场 中，美股重回流入。 国内市场流动性： 北向配置盘净流出 8 亿美元；北向交易盘本周转流出，净 仓位跌至 7.03%，但空头增仓幅度相比 23 年 8 月、24 年 10 月明显较小：本轮调整并不来自外资，港股相对 A 股抗 跌，显示更多来自市场流动性和筹码结构。 权益资产层面： 美股：联储的应对方式包括，下调逆回购利率，每天增加 临时的常备回购操作来缓解市场流动性紧缺；随着政府债 务上限问题扰动，预计 TGA 账户也 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 顶层政策支持有望逐步落地 医药行业周报 投资评级： 报告日期： 推荐 维持 2025年01月05日 ◼ 分析师：胡博新 ◼ SAC编号：S1050522120002 医 药 行 业 观 点 1 . 顶层政策加速医药产业的升级 2025年1月3日，国务院正式发布《关于全面深化药品医疗器械监管改革促进医药产业高质量发展的意见》（以下简称意 见），该意见提出了研发创新、中外合作、质量监管方面的优化措施，并规划2027年前建成与医药创新和产业发展相适应 的监管体系。在优化效率方面，意见提出了审批时限的新试点，在部分地区开展优化创新药临床试验审评审批试点，将审 评审批时限由60个工作日缩短为30个工作日，医疗器械临床试验审评审批时限由60个工作日缩短为30个工作日，将药品注 册检验、生物制品批签发检验和进口药品通关检验每批次用量从全项检验用量的3倍减为2倍。自从2015年药品审评审批制 度改革以来，对创新药发展的政策支持一直在不断优化，2024年7月，国务院发布《全链条支持创新药发展实施方案》， 对医药创新升级的支持进入全链条多部门协调的时代，意见的支持政策不仅需要药监合作，还需要医疗 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry, highlighting potential growth opportunities in the sector [9][10][44]. Core Insights - Tesla's Q4 deliveries reached a record high, with expectations for continued growth in 2025, particularly in the T-chain investment opportunities [3][4]. - The overall automotive market is projected to see a U-shaped growth pattern in 2024, with a total retail forecast of 22.94 million vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the rise of domestic brands, with several achieving record sales, and anticipates a significant increase in the penetration of new energy vehicles [5][6][7]. Market Performance and Valuation - The automotive sector's performance has been mixed, with the automotive index down 7.5% recently, underperforming the broader market [18][19]. - As of January 3, 2025, the automotive industry's PE ratio stands at 28.8, while the PB ratio is at 2.4, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical levels [25][26]. Industry Data Tracking - The report notes strong retail performance in December, with average daily sales of passenger vehicles increasing significantly year-on-year [34][35]. - The report highlights the impact of government policies, such as trade-in incentives, which have positively influenced vehicle sales [35][36]. Company Announcements and News - Tesla's Shanghai energy storage factory has begun trial production, with full-scale production expected in early 2025 [49]. - Several companies, including BYD and Seres, reported substantial year-on-year increases in production and sales for December 2024 [45][46]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential, including Seres, Jianghuai Automobile, and various component manufacturers [10][43][44].

2025 年 01 月 05 日 广汽集团发布第三代人形机器人 GoMate，有望 在 2026 年实现小规模量产 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：林子健 S1050523090001 linzj@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 汽车(申万) -6.9 -1.8 14.3 沪深 300 -3.7 -6.0 13.4 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《汽车行业深度报告：人形机器 人"好用"的关键 特斯拉 Optimus22 自由度灵巧 手方案解析》2025-01-03 2、《汽车行业动态研究报告：国内 优秀机器人厂商（二）星动纪元： 技术背景卓越，STAR1 户外运动能力 优秀》2024-12-31 3、《汽车行业动态研究报告：国内 优秀机器人厂商（一）：智元开启 通用机器人商用量产，计划年产千 台》2024-12-31 事件：12 月 26 日，广汽集团正式发布第三代具身智能人形 机器人 GoMate。 ▌行业首创可变轮足，广汽开启人形机器人全新发 展阶段 本体层面：GoMate 全 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 生猪价格短期反弹标肥差走扩 宠物猫饲养倾向显现疫苗国产替代推进 —农林牧渔行业周报 ①生猪养殖 短期猪价反弹重回16元/公斤区间，惜售挺价情绪再次成为主流。本周全国商品猪出栏日均价周四和周五重回16元/公 斤区间，周五日均价为16.16元/公斤，周均价为15.8元/公斤。短期反弹主因经历11和12两月的高出栏节奏，生猪出栏出现 一定的空档期。目前市场上养殖端惜售挺价情绪较为明确，备战接下来春节备货增量阶段。本周仔猪价格同样呈现反弹趋 势，规模场7公斤和15公斤仔猪周均价分别为387.62和491元/头，周环比上涨5.44%和10.09%，反弹一部分原因与各企业 积极部署2025年出栏目标进行外购仔猪相关。 肥猪出栏出现空档期，标肥价差走扩。高出栏月主要针对腌腊需求潮，所以肥猪出栏节奏更快，肥猪更加明显出现存 栏空档期。肥猪供给的短期紧缩，对应生猪标肥价差持续走扩。 关注周期拐点，重点关注成本优势和产能扩张兼具企业。因为行业能繁产能的持续提升，对应未来猪肉供给的增量， 预计2025年猪价将在低位波动，生猪养殖行业进入成本比拼阶段。持续跟踪下一轮猪周期拐点事件，关注环保新政策和全 ...

2025 年 01 月 05 日 可穿戴设备、AIPC 即将闪耀 CES 2025 消费电子 展，消费电子国补即将开启 推荐(维持) 投资要点 电子行业细分板块比较，12 月 30 日-1 月 3 日当周，电子行 业细分板块处于下跌态势。其中，品牌消费电子、面板、LED 板块的跌幅最小。估值方面，数字芯片设计、LED、模拟芯片 设计板块估值水平位列前三，半导体材料、分立器件板块估 值排名本周第四、五位。 分析师：毛正 S1050521120001 maozheng@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：吕卓阳 S1050523060001 lvzy@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 1、《电子行业周报：人工智能军备 竞赛开启，关注产业投资机遇》 2024-12-29 2、《电子行业周报：字节跳动正式 发布豆包视觉理解模型，韩媒报道 长鑫存储已成功量产 DDR5 内存芯 片》2024-12-23 3、《电子行业周报：英伟达被中国 立案调查，谷歌官宣新系统 AndroidXR》2024-12-15 ▌ CES 2025 消费电子展即将开启，可穿戴设备、 AIPC 等最新产品横空出世 2025 CES 全球消费电子展将于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector, particularly high-end brands, is expected to benefit from valuation recovery and fundamental improvements, with specific recommendations for companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [4][9]. - The overall liquor market is projected to achieve a revenue of CNY 1,738 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 15% [4][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of seasonal sales and market recovery, particularly in the context of the upcoming Spring Festival [5]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Luzhou has set a target of CNY 1,500 billion in liquor revenue for 2025 [19]. - Jiangsu's liquor production from January to November reached 177,000 kiloliters [19]. - The report notes the operational status of 29 wastewater treatment plants in Renhuai [19]. Company News - Moutai is expected to achieve a revenue of CNY 1,738 billion in 2024, with a net profit of CNY 857 billion, marking a growth of about 15% and 14.7% respectively [4][19]. - Wuliangye reported a 44.3% increase in sales for its 1618 brand in Gansu [19]. - Jinshiyuan plans to increase its holdings by CNY 270 million to CNY 540 million [19]. Key Company Feedback - The report indicates that Moutai's management is focusing on enhancing procurement efficiency and expanding market presence [18]. - The liquor sector is divided into three main lines: high-end brands benefiting from valuation recovery, real estate liquor brands showing clear fundamental improvements, and mid-tier brands with strong performance certainty [4]. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown varied performance, with the liquor segment experiencing a revenue increase of 9.7% year-on-year, while the overall food and beverage industry has seen a decline of 3.9% over the past month [1][4]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of stock performance for key companies, highlighting both gains and losses in the sector [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in the humanoid robot sector, specifically focusing on Tesla's Optimus project [2]. Core Insights - The demand for dexterous hands arises from flexible manufacturing, with humanoid robots being the most aligned with human daily production and life needs. The integration of machine learning and brain-like intelligence will enhance the smart capabilities of humanoid robots, making dexterous hands a key component for improving flexible operational capabilities [3][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Dexterous Hands as Key End Effectors - Dexterous hands are complex end effectors crucial for robot performance, significantly impacting flexibility and usability. They differ from traditional industrial robotic hands, which are designed for specific tasks and lack flexibility and precision [14][15]. - The evolution of dexterous hands is driven by the need for flexible manufacturing, allowing for small-batch production and adaptability to environmental changes [16]. 2. Key Changes in Tesla's Next-Generation Dexterous Hand - Tesla's next-generation dexterous hand will feature three major changes aimed at increasing the value of lead screws, including the transition to external drive systems, the replacement of worm gears with lead screws, and the use of tendons instead of torsion springs [55][57]. - The new design will enhance precision, load capacity, and operational efficiency, with the current Optimus dexterous hand achieving 22 degrees of freedom, comparable to human hands [51][58]. 3. Key Components of Dexterous Hands - The most valuable components of dexterous hands include lead screws, motors, and reducers. Recommended companies for investment in these components are listed, including Shuanglin Co., Best, and Beite Technology for lead screws, and Mingzhi Electric and Zhaowei Electromechanical for motors and reducers [8][9]. - Hollow cup motors are highlighted for their energy-saving and responsive control characteristics, making them suitable for high-performance applications like robotics [61][62].

2025 年 01 月 05 日 业绩预期开启情绪分化 关注图书订货会与 CES 攻守兼备 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：朱珠 | S1050521110001 | | --- | --- | | zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：于越 | S1050522080001 | | yvyue@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 传媒(申万) -12.8 -1.1 -4.5 沪深 300 -4.5 -6.0 11.7 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 传媒 沪深300 相关研究 1、《传媒行业动态研究报告：内需 系列从 INS 新乐园看首发经济与体 验经济》2024-12-24 2、《传媒行业周报：从谷子到首发 经济到社交礼物经济 跨年迎贺岁春 节档》2024-12-22 3、《传媒行业周报：谷歌字节跳动 探索 AI 观影补贴内容新供给迎跨 年》2024-12-15 ▌ 本周观点更新 2025 年开年，将迎接农历新年，年报预告业绩已渐开启，主 题板块情绪面分化。短期业绩预期带来传媒互联 ...