2024 年 10 月 28 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 姚健 S0350522030001 yaoj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 杜先康 S0350523080003 duxk01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] Q3 收入同比高增，先进陶瓷材料国内领跑者 ——珂玛科技（301611）2024 年三季报点评 最近一年走势 事件: 珂玛科技 10 月 24 日发布 2024 年三季报：2024 年前三季度公司实现收 入 6.16 亿元，同比增长 74.65%；实现归母净利润 2.26 亿元，同比增长 295.42%；实现扣非归母净利润 2.20 亿元。 投资要点: 相对沪深 300 表现 2024/10/28 Q3 收入及归母净利润同比高增。2024Q3 公司实现收入 2.32 亿元， 同比增长 95.11%，环比增长 3.48%；实现归母净利润 0.87 亿元， 同比增长 275.56%，环比减少 2.31%；实现扣非归母净利润 0.84 亿 元，环比减少 3.81%。 表现 1M 3M 12M 珂玛科技 121.0% 沪深 300 7.0% ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the steel and commodity industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on market uncertainty, with expectations leaning towards a potential Trump victory influencing trading strategies [1][10]. - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the 1-year LPR to 3.10% and the 5-year LPR to 3.60%, marking the largest cut since 2019, which is expected to boost market confidence [1][10]. - The steel sector has shown mixed performance, with a 14.1% increase over the past month, but a 5.6% decline over the past year [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The U.S. jobless claims decreased to 227,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.897 million, indicating potential risks for rising unemployment rates [1]. - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. election, with significant implications for economic policies [1]. Industry Performance - The steel sector's performance over the past month is 14.1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 16.3% [1]. - The report notes that the steel price is stabilizing in the short term, with expectations of fluctuations due to seasonal transitions [11]. Commodity Prices - Rebar prices have increased week-on-week, driven by improved macro expectations despite weak demand [11]. - Iron ore prices have also seen a week-on-week increase, influenced by the LPR cut and market sentiment [11]. - Coal prices are expected to remain stable, with winter demand anticipated to rise [12]. Individual Commodity Insights - Copper prices have weakened due to reduced expectations for a significant Fed rate cut and a strong dollar, with market sentiment turning cautious [12][13]. - Aluminum prices have risen due to increasing costs from alumina and supportive government policies [13]. - International oil prices have fluctuated, influenced by geopolitical risks and domestic monetary policy adjustments [13]. Market Tracking - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various sectors, indicating that non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, while steel and coal sectors lagged [14][15]. - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the steel sector, with notable gains from companies like Jiugang Hongxing and Benxi Steel [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1][6][27] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector outperformed the market with a weekly increase of 2.19%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.02 percentage points [1][12] - The report highlights a decline in institutional holdings in the food and beverage sector, with a slight increase in the proportion of white liquor holdings [1][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on long-term value in the white liquor sector, despite short-term pressures [4][6] Summary by Sections Industry Review - The food and beverage sector's performance for the week of October 21-25, 2024, showed a 2.19% increase, with other liquor categories leading at 7.37% [1][12] - Notable stock performances included Weilang Co. (+28.68%) and ST Jiajia (+27.63%), while Jinzai Food (-6.37%) and Anji Food (-4.09%) faced declines [1][12] Fund Holding Situation - The food and beverage sector's heavy holding ratio decreased to 5.01%, while the white liquor segment saw an increase in its fund holding ratio [19][27] - The top three stocks in the white liquor sector for institutional accumulation were Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Laojiao, while the top three for reduction were Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu [19][27] Key Stocks and Logic - Recommended stocks in the white liquor sector include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, among others [4][6][27] - In the consumer goods segment, recommended stocks include Angel Yeast, Bairun Co., and Three Squirrels [6][27] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Guizhou Moutai's stock price is 1,559 with an EPS forecast of 68.63 for 2024, while Wuliangye is priced at 148 with an EPS forecast of 8.69 [28] - Other notable companies include Angel Yeast, Bairun Co., and Yili, all with positive investment ratings [28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue and profit growth in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 3.509 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.19%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 383 million yuan, up 21.60% year-on-year and 8.96% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company benefits from increased sales from core independent customers, with notable sales growth from key clients such as Li Auto, Seres, and Chery, which saw quarter-on-quarter sales increases of 41%, 12%, and 14% respectively [2]. - The company's gross margin for Q3 2024 was 19.94%, with a net margin of 10.91%, indicating a slight improvement in profitability despite a minor decline in gross margin compared to previous periods [2]. - The company is positioned as a leading domestic automotive lighting enterprise, with ongoing projects in advanced lighting technologies and a growing customer base, including new energy vehicle clients [2][5]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.509 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 24.77% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.19%. The net profit was 383 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.60% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.96% [2]. - The company has a diverse customer base, including luxury brands and domestic manufacturers, which has contributed to its revenue growth [2]. Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin was 19.94%, with a net margin of 10.91%. The expense ratio improved to 8.12%, indicating better cost management [2]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 42.35 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 148.25 yuan [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 12.9 billion yuan, 15.9 billion yuan, and 19.2 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.484 billion yuan, 1.911 billion yuan, and 2.388 billion yuan [5][7]. - The projected EPS for the same years is 5.20 yuan, 6.69 yuan, and 8.36 yuan, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 28.54 to 17.74 over the forecast period [5][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has shown improvement in revenue growth year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with a focus on cost optimization leading to enhanced profitability [2][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 47.58 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.26 billion yuan, up 23.79% year-on-year [2] - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 18.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.72%, and a net profit of 2.89 billion yuan, up 21.4% year-on-year [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company's gross margin improved significantly in Q3 2024, reaching 33.11%, an increase of 6.31 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and increased sales scale [4] - The sales and management expense ratios for Q3 2024 were 7.86% and 3.94%, respectively, showing a year-on-year optimization [4] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 15.57%, up 2.27 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a significant enhancement in profitability [4] Market Performance - The company's stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 1-month performance of 17.9% and a 3-month performance of 29.0% [2] - As of October 25, 2024, the stock price was 33.18 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 23.67-38.72 yuan [2] Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned for growth in the upcoming year, with expectations for strong performance during the New Year festival due to good channel inventory and planned marketing investments [2] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 75.41 billion yuan, 81.71 billion yuan, and 87.78 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 8%, and 7% [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5][9] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady growth in performance, with international business emerging as a "second engine" for growth [1][6] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 420 million yuan, up 22% year-on-year [3][6] - The company has a strong order backlog of 3.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29% [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for Q3 2024 was 720 million yuan, representing an 11% year-on-year increase but a 7% decrease quarter-on-quarter [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 40.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 3.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 21.0%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 2.6 billion, 3.2 billion, and 3.9 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 21%, and 22% [5][9] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 650 million, 800 million, and 1 billion yuan, with growth rates of 23%, 24%, and 24% [5][9] - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 32X for 2024, 26X for 2025, and 21X for 2026 [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [2][5] Core Views - The decline in aluminum prices has impacted Q3 performance, but Q4 is expected to improve due to rising aluminum and alumina prices [4][5] - Tianshan Aluminum's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 20.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.93%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.08 billion yuan, an increase of 88.36% year-on-year [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 7.01 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.1% [3] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.01 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 25.4% but a year-on-year increase of 63.5% [3] - The average price of aluminum in Q3 2024 was 19,560 yuan/ton, down 975 yuan/ton from Q2 but up 729 yuan/ton year-on-year [4] Future Outlook - The company has multiple growth projects in progress, including a 200,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project and alumina projects in Indonesia and Guinea [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 33.7 billion, 35.4 billion, and 38.4 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 4.22 billion, 4.51 billion, and 4.95 billion yuan [5][8] - The expected EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.91, 0.97, and 1.06 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.33, 8.72, and 7.95 [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pingmei Co Ltd (601666) [2] Core Views - Pingmei Co Ltd's Q3 2024 performance showed marginal improvement in volume reduction trends and stable overall performance due to cost optimization [2] - The company's coal business saw a slight increase in gross profit per ton despite a decrease in volume [3] - Pingmei Co Ltd's convertible bonds still have nearly half remaining unconverted, with potential for further expansion in coal-coking integration [4][5] - The company has a significant high-dividend feature, with a commitment to distribute at least 60% of annual distributable profits in cash [5] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue reached 23.32 billion yuan, up 0.78% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 34.9% to 2.045 billion yuan [2] - Q3 2024 revenue was 7.01 billion yuan, down 1.9% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders decreasing by 27.9% to 650 million yuan [2] - Basic EPS for Q1-Q3 2024 was 0.84 yuan/share, down 38.1% YoY [2] - Weighted average ROE for Q1-Q3 2024 was 7.1%, down 5.9 percentage points YoY [2] Coal Business Analysis - Q1-Q3 2024 raw coal production was 21.061 million tons, down 9% YoY [3] - Commercial coal sales volume was 20.08 million tons, down 13% YoY [3] - Average coal price per ton was 1,032.6 yuan, up 8% YoY [3] - Cost per ton of coal was 718 yuan, up 11% YoY [3] - Gross profit per ton of coal was 314.6 yuan, up 2% YoY [3] Q3 2024 Performance - Q3 2024 raw coal production was 6.853 million tons, down 10% QoQ and 11% YoY [3] - Commercial coal sales volume was 6.594 million tons, up 0.3% QoQ but down 13% YoY [3] - Average coal price per ton in Q3 was 918 yuan, down 10% QoQ but up 6% YoY [3] - Cost per ton of coal in Q3 was 608.4 yuan, down 14% QoQ but up 6% YoY [3] - Gross profit per ton of coal in Q3 was 309.9 yuan, down 0.5% QoQ but up 6% YoY [3] Future Projections - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 2.7/3.11/3.42 billion yuan, with growth rates of -33%/+15%/+10% [6] - 2024-2026 EPS is projected to be 1.09/1.26/1.38 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9/8/7 [6] - 2024-2026 ROE is projected to be 10%/11%/11% [6] - 2024-2026 revenue is projected to be 29.133/30.554/31.509 billion yuan, with growth rates of -8%/+5%/+3% [7] Valuation Metrics - Current price: 10.17 yuan [3] - 52-week price range: 7.84-15.05 yuan [3] - Total market capitalization: 25.172 billion yuan [3] - Circulating market capitalization: 25.113 billion yuan [3] - Average daily trading volume: 242.42 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.328 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 333 million yuan, up 22.17% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 574 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.77%, with a net profit of 38 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 108.84% [2][3] - The company continues to optimize its product structure, with over 85% of revenue coming from mid-to-high-end products, and strong growth in the provincial and out-of-province markets [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company's gross margin decreased by 1.52 percentage points to 61.13%, attributed to promotional adjustments and increased market competition [3] - The company maintained a net profit margin of 6.6% in Q3 2024, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company’s sales cash receipts reached 610 million yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.73% [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company’s strategy of "national layout, deepening the Northwest, and key breakthroughs" is gradually being implemented, with significant growth in the provincial and out-of-province markets [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 3 billion, 3.6 billion, and 4.3 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 21%, and 19% [5] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 412 million yuan for 2024, 499 million yuan for 2025, and 611 million yuan for 2026, with EPS projected at 0.81, 0.98, and 1.20 yuan respectively [5][6] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 25, 21, and 17 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][6]

Key Insights - The report highlights a significant recovery in orders and performance across various companies, indicating a positive trend in the market [5][11][15] - Companies are focusing on product structure optimization and channel efficiency to enhance profitability [8][10][26] - The overall economic environment shows signs of recovery, with downstream demand gradually improving [15][30] Company Summaries Tianwei Foods (603317) - For Q3 2024, Tianwei Foods reported revenue of 896 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.93%, and a net profit of 186 million yuan, up 64.79% year-on-year [8] - The company achieved a gross margin of 38.83%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost reductions and product upgrades [9] - The online sales channel saw a remarkable growth of 55% year-on-year, contributing to the overall revenue increase [8] Dongfang Cable (603606) - Dongfang Cable's Q3 2024 revenue reached 2.631 billion yuan, a 58.3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 288 million yuan, up 40.3% [11] - The company maintained a stable gross margin of 21.74%, indicating consistent profitability [11] - The backlog of orders has significantly increased, with a total of 4.098 billion yuan in hand orders as of late October 2024 [12] Jiete Bio (688026) - Jiete Bio reported a revenue of 391 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, an 18.56% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, up 259.26% [15] - The gross margin improved to 39.78%, reflecting better cost management and increased demand [15] - The company is actively enhancing its product development capabilities in response to market trends [17] Lixiao Technology (300487) - Lixiao Technology achieved a revenue of 1.892 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a 19.99% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 596 million yuan, up 15.10% [19] - The gross margin for Q3 was 51.20%, indicating a strong performance despite a slight decline in net profit compared to the previous quarter [20] - The company is focusing on expanding its core product lines and enhancing operational efficiency [21] Chip Source Microelectronics (688037) - Chip Source Microelectronics reported a revenue of 1.105 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 8.44% year-on-year, with a net profit of 108 million yuan, down 51.12% [22] - The gross margin improved to 46.22%, reflecting ongoing investments in research and development [23] - The company is experiencing fluctuations in revenue due to uneven order distribution and production cycles [22] Electric Power Investment (002128) - Electric Power Investment reported a revenue of 21.81 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a 10.54% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.4 billion yuan, up 22.73% [30] - The coal business remains stable, with a high proportion of long-term contracts mitigating market volatility [30] - The company is benefiting from rising aluminum prices, which are expected to support profitability [31] Beite Technology (603009) - Beite Technology achieved a revenue of 487 million yuan in Q3 2024, a slight increase of 1.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 23 million yuan, up 128.6% [33] - The gross margin improved significantly, indicating effective cost management strategies [33] - The company is focusing on developing its second growth curve through innovative product offerings [33]