电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024年5月14日 601012.SH 隆基绿能 买入 出货量持续增长，二代HPBC 或于下半年量产 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 18.62 公司发布2023年年报及2024年一季报，盈利分别同比-27%/-165%；公司硅 片、组件出货量持续增长；二代 HPBC 组件或于 2024 年下半年量产；维持 板 块评级:强于大市 买入评级。 支撑评级的要点 股价表现  2023 年公司业绩同比下降 27.41%：公司发布 2023 年年报，全年实现营收 1294.98亿元，同比增长0.39%；实现盈利107.51亿元，同比减少27.41%；实 0% 现扣非盈利108.34亿元，同比减少24.84%。根据年报数据计算，2023Q4 公 (9%) 司实现盈利-9.42亿元，同比减少124.57%，环比减少137.46%。 (18%)  2024年一季度公司业绩同比下降164.61%：公司发布2024年一季报，一 (27%) 季度实现营收176.74亿元，同比减少37.59%；实现盈利-23.50亿元，同 (36%) 比减少164.61%。 (45%)  减值影 ...

石油石化 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024年5月14日 002493.SZ 荣盛石化 买入 一季度销售毛利率修复，国际化发展迈入新篇章 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 11.39 2023年度公司实现营业收入3251.12亿元，同比增长12.46%；实现归母净利 润 11.58 亿元，同比减少 65.33%。2024 年第一季度实现营收 810.88 亿元， 板块评级:强于大市 同比增长 16.30%，环比减少 5.78%；实现归母净利润 5.52 亿元，同比增加 137.63%，环比减少47.42%。2024年一季度销售毛利率明显修复，公司的国 股价表现 际化发展迈入新篇章，看好长期成长能力，维持买入评级。 支撑评级的要点 2%  2024Q1 销售毛利率明显修复。2023 年公司石化板块营业收入 2968.51 亿元，同 (4%) 比增加10.67%，毛利率12.37%，同比增加1.11pct，其中，炼油产品实现营收1218.85 (10%) 亿元，同比增长17.38%，毛利率为20.26%，同比增加2.10 pct。化工产品实现营 收1217.77亿元，同比增长6.92%，毛利率为10.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [1][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.685 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 3.22%, but faced a net loss of 88.05 million RMB, a significant decline of 143% compared to the previous year [1][2]. - In Q1 2024, the company generated revenue of 124.18 million RMB, down 75.22% year-on-year, but achieved a net profit of 73.66 million RMB, a decrease of 10.28% year-on-year, indicating a recovery from previous losses [1][9]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the anticipated acceleration in offshore wind installation demand, with a projected capacity of nearly 60 GW planned for the "14th Five-Year Plan," and over 30 GW of unmet demand expected to be released in 2024-2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company's gross margin was 9.77%, down 4.98 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting pressure on profitability due to factors such as declining product prices and increased depreciation [1][2]. - The company recorded a total impairment provision of 184 million RMB for the year, primarily due to the aging of accounts receivable and contract assets [1][2]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 includes expected revenues of 34.30 billion RMB, 59.75 billion RMB, and 69.28 billion RMB, with net profits projected at 3.04 billion RMB, 6.43 billion RMB, and 7.81 billion RMB respectively [1][2]. Market Position and Capacity - The company has multiple production bases, including Hai Li Offshore, Hai Li Equipment, and Hai Heng Equipment, with significant capacity expected to come online in 2024 [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company is a leading player in the offshore wind tower and foundation sector, positioning it well to capitalize on future market demand [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock price will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next 6-12 months [12][20]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 909.23 million RMB in 2023, a decrease of 10.13% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 151.43 million RMB, down 29.01% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to the downturn in the PCB industry and slower-than-expected industrialization of composite copper foil [4][5]. - Despite the current challenges, the company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in downstream demand and the release of composite copper foil demand, as it is the only company globally capable of large-scale production of roll-type membrane material electroplating equipment [4][12]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company's gross margin was 41.72%, a slight decrease of 0.15 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin fell by 4.43 percentage points to 16.65% due to increased expense ratios [4][5]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 1.156 billion RMB, 1.793 billion RMB, and 2.167 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 209 million RMB, 347 million RMB, and 447 million RMB [4][17]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.91 RMB, 1.51 RMB, and 1.95 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 43.0, 25.9, and 20.1 [4][15]. Market Position and Product Development - The company has introduced new products in the PCB sector, including three-in-one horizontal plating equipment and ceramic electroplating, which align with the structural demands of high-end HDI and high-speed PCBs [4][5]. - In the renewable energy sector, the company has successfully shipped its vertical continuous electroplating line for silicon wafers and developed new vacuum aluminum plating equipment, indicating a strong pipeline for future growth [4][5].

300035.SZ | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|----------| | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 723.31 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 621.25 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 7,356.07 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 136.29 | | 主要股东 | | | | 余新 | | 11.15 | | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind | ，中银证券 | | 中科电气 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-------|--------|--------|--------|-------| | | | | | | | | 年结日： 12 月 31 日 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 主营收入 ( 人民币 百万 ) | 5,257 | 4,908 | 4,987 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector achieved steady revenue growth in 2023 and Q1 2024, with profit margins improving. The revenue and net profit growth rates for the sector in 2023 were 7.0% and 16.9%, respectively, while in Q1 2024, they were 6.7% and 16.0% [2][3]. - In the liquor segment, baijiu revenue growth led the industry in both 2023 and Q1 2024, with growth rates of 16.0% and 14.7%, respectively. The beer segment also showed a clear upgrade trend, while other liquor categories demonstrated positive reform effects [2][3]. - The overall demand for food remained stable, with reduced cost pressures leading to improved profitability. The dairy segment saw revenue and net profit growth of 1.3% and 22.8% in 2023, while the soft drink segment grew by 13.1% and 14.4% in the same periods [2][3]. Market Review - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was +1.7%, ranking it in the middle among various industries. The beer and soft drink sub-sectors performed well, with increases of +4.1% and +3.8%, respectively [9][11]. - As of May 10, the valuation for the baijiu sector (PE-TTM) was 24.2X, while the overall food and beverage sector was valued at 25.0X [1][9]. Industry Data - As of May 10, the price for fresh milk was 3.41 RMB/kg, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 12.1% year-on-year. The national pig price was 7.63 RMB/jin, down 0.4% week-on-week but up 4.5% year-on-year [33][27]. - The wholesale price for various liquor products as of May 10 included 2785-2797 RMB for a case of Feitian and 2578 RMB for a single bottle [27][28]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends stocks including Shanxi Fenjiu, Chengde Lolo, Luzhou Laojiao, Qingdao Beer, and Jinshiyuan [2].

1. 货币工具方面，报告整体延续了 4 月政治局会议中提出"要灵活运用利率和存款准备金率等政策工具"的说法，利 率工具可能包括 MLF、LPR、存款利率甚至买卖国债，二季度应当会有所发力。同时报告强调"今年积极财政政策 的力度比较大，计划发行的政府债券规模也不小，发行节奏还会加快"，5-6 月若政府债集中发行，央行可能会采取 降准操作对冲；2. 预期引导方面，物价成为货币政策重要考量，下一阶段央行或将继续引导调节表内储蓄及表外投资 产品的收益率，以期影响居民风险偏好和投资行为，后续存款利率或将继续下行。同时央行对于市场利率的预期管理 也逐渐加强，整体来看央行倾向于加强预期引导，纠偏市场过度投机行为。 重点关注 【宏观经济】央行一季度货币政策执行报告点评—物价成为重要考量 朱启兵 孙德基 国内居民消费意愿及企业经营景气指数回升。经济前景方面，一季度货政报告看法相对乐观，相对于去年四季度报告， 一季度报告同样提及了"国内大循环不畅"、"有效需求仍然不足"等问题，但报告从具体数据层面上也说明了乐观 因素正在增加，一是今年中央杠杆空间充足，二是清明假期消费数据表现较好，三是一季度城镇储户问卷中居民消费 倾向回升。海外 ...

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年5月13日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20240512 制冷剂、聚合MDI 价格上行 5月份建议关注：1、大宗商品价格上行，关注大型能源央企及相关油服公司在新时代 背景下的改革改善与经营业绩提升；2、下游催化较多，一季报超预期的部分半导体、 OLED 等电子材料公司；3、化纤、制冷剂、化肥等子行业的旺季及补库行情，农药 或迎来触底改善。 行业动态  本周（5.6-5.12）均价跟踪的101个化工品种中，共有31个品种价格上涨，39个品种价格下 跌，31个品种价格稳定。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是NYMEX天然气、重质纯碱（华东）、 氯化钾(青海盐湖60%)、萤石粉（华东）、醋酸（华东）；而周均价跌幅居前的品种分别是 苯胺（华东）、TDI（华东）、硝酸(华东地区)、苯酚（华东）、石脑油（新加坡）。  本周（5.6-5.12）国际油价小幅震荡，WTI原油收于78.26美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅0.19%； 布伦特原油收于82.79美元/桶，收盘价周跌幅0.20%。宏观方面，4月美国非农就业数据疲 软，美国劳工统计局数据显示，美国 4 月季调后非农就业人口录得增长 1 ...

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年5月13日 强于大市 电力设备与新能源行业 5 月 第 2 周周报 工信部引导锂电企业减少单纯扩大产能 光伏方面，产业链价格继续下跌，预计硅料价格仍未见底。上游价格下跌推 动全产业链价格继续下探，硅片、电池、组件等环节仍处于降价通道之内， 但盈利已经基本探底，在上游涨价的背景下向上涨价修复盈利动能较弱。建 议优先配置产业链价格基本见底环节，具备成本优势、技术优势的一体化龙 头标的，以及具备新技术迭代属性细分环节。风电方面，2024年装机有望呈 现前低后高态势，风电千乡万村行动或助力打开中长期陆风发展天花板，海 风项目建设有序推进，预计2024年海风招标与并网均有望实现较高景气度， 建议优先配置后续增长潜力较大的塔筒桩基与海缆环节，以及存在渗透率提 升逻辑的国产化与新技术环节。新能源汽车方面，汽车以旧换新补贴政策出 台，有利于刺激新能源汽车消费，提振销量，产业链有望受益。新能源车全 年销量有望保持高景气，价格战背景下产业链降价压力仍然较大，本周工信 部发布征求意见稿，引导企业减少单纯扩大产能的制造项目，有利于产能逐 步出清，电池和材料环节盈利有望回归合理。固态 ...

房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024年5月13日 强于大市 房地产行业重大事件点评 这次地产不一样？  政治局会议对房地产定调转变，市场对后续政策期待加满。430政治局会议提出“统筹研究消化存量房产”，这是中央在2015 年之后，时隔9年，再提“去库存”（追溯上一次是2015年12月的政治局会议提出“要化解房地产库存，扩大有效需求， 稳定房地产市场”）。政治局会议定调后，后续更多支持性政策出台可期。2015年后“去库存”的主要手段在于货币化棚 改，为市场注入了增量资金，化解了三四线城市的库存，继而带动了楼市复苏。而从目前的政策来看，“以旧换新”是类 似的可以将居民持有的房产再投入市场，激发置换需求的。根据中指院，截至5月6日，全国已有超50个城市表态支持住 房“以旧换新”，从各地支持方式来看，主要包括两种：1）房企联合经纪机构对旧房优先推售，若一定期限内旧房售出则 按流程购买新房；2）开发商或国资平台收购旧房，售房款用于购买指定新房项目，对于出售自由住房并购买新房的个人或 家庭给予一定购房补贴。但“以旧换新”政策才启动，从目前来看，支持力度与实施范围也不及此前的棚改，若没有足够 的增量资金进场补 ...