关注商品价格的波动 相关研究报告 《1-4 月进出口数据点评》20240509 《策略深度报告》20240509 《A 股 2023 年年报及 2024 年一季报分析》 20240508 CPI 资料来源：万得，中银证券 资料来源：万得，中银证券 (1.00) (0.50) 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 2021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-04 CPI:当月同比 核心CPI:当月同比 (%) 图表 1. CPI 和核心 CPI 同比走势 图表 2. 消费品和服务 CPI 当月同比 (2.00) (1.00) 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 2021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042 ...

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重点关注 出口同比增幅走扩。5 月 9 日，海关总署公布数据显示，以美元计价，1-4 月，我国出口同比增长 1.5%，延续正增长， 增速与一季度持平；进口同比增长 3.2%，增幅较一季度走扩 1.7 个百分点；贸易顺差实现 2556.6 亿美元。以人民币计 价，1-4 月我国出口同比增长 4.9%，增幅与一季度持平；进口同比增长 6.8%，增幅较一季度走扩 1.8 个百分点；贸易 顺差实现 18173.2 亿元。 单月数据方面，以美元计价，4 月我国出口同比增长 1.5 %，增速由负转正，较上月改善 9.0 个百分点；进口同比增长 8.4%，增速同样由负转正，较上月改善 10.3 个百分点；贸易顺差 723.5 亿美元，较上月增加 138.0 亿美元。 主要贸易对手对出口同比增速的贡献回升。分国别看，4 月当月，我国对东盟进出口总额实现 823.1 亿美元，占比 16.1%， 东盟仍是我国第一大贸易伙伴，其中，出口同比增长 8.1%，增幅较上月明显改善 14.4 个百分点；进口同比增长 5.3%， 增幅较上月明显改善 9.2 个百分点。4 月我国对欧盟进出口总额 671.3 亿美元，占比 13.1%；其中，出 ...

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024年5月9日 强于大市 2024 年五一旅游数据点评 国内旅游需求稳中有进，出入境游加速修复 “五一”假期国内旅游需求稳中有进，出游总人次、收入、人均消费均有所 提升。旅游市场整体呈现出旅游下沉化趋势、名山大川等著名景区热度不减、 出入境游增速较高的特点，期待后续文旅市场由高速增长向高质增长转变。 支撑评级的要点  五一国内旅游需求增长稳中有进，县域市场增幅明显。五一期间全国国 内旅游出游 2.95 亿人次，同比增长 7.6%，按可比口径较 2019 年同期增 长28.2%；国内游客出游总消费1668.9亿元，同比增长12.7%，按可比口 径较2019年同期增长13.5%。人均消费约566元，同比增长4.7%，但低 于19年水平。同时，据携程数据，旅游下沉化趋势愈加明显。旅游订单 同比增速上，一二线城市小于三四线城市，三四线城市小于县域市场。  出行半径推动消费修复，餐饮酒店受带动表现良好。据携程数据，今年 “五一”假期旅客出行距离明显增加，平均出游半径同比增长 25%，跨 省酒店预订占比超 7 成。出行中飞机出行距离达到 4 年来巅峰，平均距 离为1638 ...

有色金属 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 5 月 9 日 603876.SH 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 11.23 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (58%) (46%) (33%) (21%) (8%) 4% May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Apr-24May-24 鼎胜新材 上证综指 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (8.8) 2.3 32.1 (68.1) 相对上证综指 (15.1) (0.3) 20.9 (62.5) | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|----------| | | | | | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 889.92 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 886.22 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 9,993.83 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 255.04 | | 主要股东 | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a market price of RMB 14.68 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1][3]. Core Views - The company has significantly increased its production and sales of polyester filament, achieving a revenue of RMB 826.40 billion in 2023, a year-on-year growth of 33.30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 7.97 billion, a remarkable increase of 539.10% [4][6]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 211.11 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.66%, and a net profit of RMB 5.80 billion, marking a turnaround from losses [4][7]. - The recovery in the polyester filament market and the company's complete industrial chain layout are expected to support continued business growth, maintaining the "Buy" rating [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 826.40 billion, up 33.30% from RMB 619.93 billion in 2022. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 7.97 billion, compared to RMB 1.25 billion in 2022, reflecting a growth of 539.10% [4][6]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 211.11 billion, a 32.66% increase from RMB 159.13 billion in Q1 2023, and a net profit of RMB 5.80 billion, compared to a loss in the previous year [4][7]. Production and Sales - The company sold 10.31 million tons of polyester filament in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 34.97%. The sales volumes for POY, FDY, and DTY were 7.84 million tons, 1.47 million tons, and 994,000 tons, respectively, with growth rates of 35.36%, 38.48%, and 27.32% [4][6]. - In Q1 2024, the company sold 2.59 million tons of polyester filament, with POY, FDY, and DTY sales of 1.94 million tons, 415,300 tons, and 234,600 tons, showing year-on-year growth of 37.43%, 36.93%, and 12.68% [4][7]. Investment and Future Outlook - The company's investment income decreased to RMB 3.21 billion in 2023, down 73.93% from the previous year, but is expected to recover as the petrochemical industry improves [4][6]. - The company has established a complete industrial chain layout, with polyester filament capacity of approximately 13.5 million tons per year and PTA capacity of about 10.2 million tons per year as of the end of 2023 [4][6]. - Future net profits are projected to be RMB 31.10 billion, RMB 41.93 billion, and RMB 55.68 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.29, RMB 1.74, and RMB 2.31 [4][5].

1-4 月进出口数据点评 出口同比增幅走扩。主要贸易对手对出口同比增速的贡献回升。汽车产业 链、轻工业产品出口表现较好。 相关研究报告 《策略深度报告》20240509 《A 股 2023 年年报及 2024 年一季报分析》 20240508 《 公募基金市场月度跟踪》20240506 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 图表 1. 1-4 月进出口同比增速 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 (30) (20) (10) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2021-04 2022-04 2023-04 2024-04 贸易差额:当月值（右轴） 出口金额:当月同比（左轴） 进口金额:当月同比（左轴） (%) (亿美元) 资料来源：Wind，中银证券 (60) (40) (20) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 农产品粮食 水海产品 纺织纱线、织物及制品 服装及衣着附件鞋靴家具及其零件 灯具、照明装置 塑料制品 家用陶瓷器皿 箱包及类似容器 玩具 成品 ...

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 5 月 9 日 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|-----------| | | | | | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 265.42 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 208.55 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 12,365.74 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 217.50 | | 主要股东 | | | | 姚力军 | | 21.39 | | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind | ，中银证券 | | 相关研究报告 《江丰电子》20231102 《江丰电子》20230411 《江丰电子》20221104 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电子：半导体 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 联系人：赵泰 tai.zhao@bocichina.com 一般证券 ...

有色金属 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024年5月9日 603799.SH 华友钴业 增持 金属价格下行盈利承压，一体化优势有望显现 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 29.39 公司发布2023年年报和2024年一季报，2023年全年实现营收663.04亿元， 同比增长 5.19%；公司主营产品销量逆势增长，一体化程度进一步加强，维 板块评级:强于大市 持增持评级。 支撑评级的要点 股价表现  2023年公司归母净利润同比下降 14.30%：公司发布2023年年报，全年 实现营收663.04亿元，同比增长5.19%；实现归母净利润33.51亿元，同 2% 比减少14.30%；实现扣非净利润30.93亿元，同比减少22.30%。根据年 (10%) 报计算，2023Q4 公司实现归母净利润 3.38 亿元，同比减少 62.56%，环 (21%) 比减少63.61%。 (33%)  2024年一季度归母净利润5.22亿元：2024Q1公司实现归母净利润5.22 (45%) 亿元，同比下降48.99%；扣非归母净利润5.68亿元，同比下降42.97%。 (57%) 销售毛利率同比下降4.12个百分点至1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][7][8] Core Views - The company's revenue for the year 2023 was RMB 12.007 billion, a slight decrease of 1.64% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 29.58% to RMB 1.064 billion [1][2] - The company's main business performance was affected by a weak shipping market, but the special ship market remained relatively stable, leading to a positive outlook for future equipment exports [1][8] - The report highlights the resilience of heavy lift and semi-submersible vessels due to the unique nature of the cargo they transport, while the multi-purpose vessel market faced a decline [1][2] Revenue and Profitability - The company's operating revenue decreased by 1.64% year-on-year to RMB 12.007 billion, while operating costs increased by 3.87% due to higher voyage operating expenses [1][2] - The average daily freight rate for multi-purpose vessels fell by 41.76% to USD 14,452, with a gross margin decrease of 19.85 percentage points to 5.72% [1][2] - The report notes a significant increase in the company's investment income from automobile shipping, which reached RMB 126 million, a year-on-year growth of 176.4% [1][2] Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be RMB 1.361 billion, RMB 1.616 billion, and RMB 1.921 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27.9%, 18.7%, and 18.9% respectively [2][3] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be RMB 0.63, RMB 0.75, and RMB 0.89, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.0, 8.4, and 7.1 [2][3] Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the automobile shipping market, with a reported export volume of 5.221 million vehicles in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 57.4% [1][2] - The report emphasizes the company's strong performance in the automobile shipping segment, which is expected to continue contributing positively to its investment returns [1][8]