Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expectation that the stock price will outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next 6-12 months [10]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's 2023 annual performance met expectations, with a significant focus on expanding into emerging fields [3]. - The company reported a net profit of 50.30 million RMB in 2023, a decrease of 68.39% year-on-year, while the first quarter of 2024 showed a recovery with a profit of 316.89 million RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 116.36% [14]. - The company is actively exploring new customer bases and product lines, which are expected to contribute positively to future performance [14]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Main revenue for 2023 was 4,541 million RMB, with a projected increase to 5,094 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 12.2% [4]. - EBITDA for 2023 was 264 million RMB, expected to rise to 368 million RMB in 2024 [4]. - Net profit for 2023 was 50 million RMB, with projections of 96 million RMB for 2024, indicating a significant recovery [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 was 0.61 RMB, with forecasts of 1.17 RMB for 2024 and 1.65 RMB for 2025 [4]. - The previous EPS forecast for 2024 was significantly higher at 3.33 RMB, indicating a downward adjustment of 64.9% [4]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 35.0 for 2024, decreasing to 24.9 in 2025 and 18.3 in 2026 [4]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to remain stable around 1.3 for 2024 and 2025 [4]. - **Market Performance**: - The company’s stock price was reported at 41.06 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 3,374.49 million RMB [10][13]. Business Development - The company has seen a growth in battery production, with a total output of 4.44 billion units in 2023, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.14% [14]. - The company is investing in new technologies such as sodium-ion and solid-state batteries, which are expected to enhance future growth opportunities [14].

有色金属 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 5 月 9 日 300618.SZ 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 29.89 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (44%) (34%) (24%) (14%) (4%) 6% May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Apr-24May-24 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------|-------------------|--------|----------| | 寒锐钴业 \n(%) | \n今年 至今 | 深圳成指 \n1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | 绝对 | 7.0 | (5.7) | 31.0 | (10.3) | | 相对深圳成指 | 4.5 | (8.3) | 21.7 | 3.8 | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | | | 312.23 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | | | 272.61 | | 总市值 ( 人 ...

Core Insights - The report focuses on "broadly defined new growth stocks" within long-term growth industries such as electronics, communications, computers, media, machinery, defense, automotive, power equipment, food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, light industry, and social services [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting high-quality new growth stocks, as only about 10% of stocks listed since 2010 have achieved returns exceeding 500% [17] - The lifecycle of "broadly defined new growth stocks" is categorized into three stages: IPO initial stage, consolidation stage, and trend verification stage [45][49] Industry and Company Analysis - The report identifies industries with a five-year net profit growth rate exceeding 100%, primarily in TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) and high-end manufacturing, as well as essential consumer sectors like food and pharmaceuticals [3][25] - The DCF three-stage discount model is utilized to evaluate the long-term growth potential of companies, focusing on those with high compound growth rates in the second stage and stable growth in the third stage [2][25] - The report outlines four main patterns of "broadly defined new growth stocks": "stair-step pattern," "late bloomer pattern," "ephemeral pattern," and "weak pattern," each with distinct characteristics and investment implications [47][62] Investment Strategy - A screening system for "broadly defined new growth stocks" is proposed, incorporating market patterns and fundamental indicators to identify stocks with high growth potential [57][59] - The report suggests focusing on two main themes for investment: "AI+" and "manufacturing upgrades," as well as emerging consumer trends driven by changing consumption patterns [105][124] - Historical backtesting of the screening system indicates that stocks meeting the criteria have a higher probability of achieving significant returns compared to the overall market performance of new growth stocks [96][99]

全 A/非金融营收、盈利仍处于磨底阶段。2024Q1 未能延续 2023 下半年以来的弱修复趋势，但 2024Q2 盈利增速修复 斜率有望明显上行。 净利润率低位企稳，但周转率、负债率仍在下行。资产负债率和资产周转率仍未企稳。2024Q1 资产负债率为下滑幅 度偏大且弱于季节性因素，上游行业利润修复强劲且资本开支降低带动负债率持续下行。销售净利率止跌迹象较资产 周转率、负债率更为明显，较 2023Q4 仅小幅下滑 0.1Pct，伴随 PPI 下行趋势触底，全 A 非金融销售净利率处于磨底 状态。全 A 非金融毛利率自 2023Q2 盈利底后仍保持反弹修复趋势，但四费率整体仍处于高位并拖累净利率表现。 盈利权重行业拖累全 A 业绩修复力度。全 A 净利润占比权重最高的三个大类方向分别是金融、上游资源、中游先进制 造，2024Q1 同比仍为负增，成为拖累全 A 盈利修复的主因，正增方向主要集中在必需消费、TMT、可选消费、公用 事业方向，但由于相关行业盈利基数占比较少，拉动效果较为有限。三大拖累方向内部亦存在显著分化。 2024 年 5 月 9 日 中银晨会聚焦-20240509 2 王靖添 支撑评级的要点 | ...

增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 53.64 板块评级:强于大市 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|------------|----------| | | | | | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 114.80 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 58.82 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 6,157.87 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 45.93 | | 主要股东 | | | | 江苏阳泰企业管理有限公司 | | 19.02 | | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind | ，中银证券 | | 公司公布 2023 年年报及 2024 年一季报，2023 年公司实现营收 5.25 亿元，同比+0.52%，实现归 母净利润 0.67 亿元，同比-39.97%；2024 年一季度实现营收 1.21 亿元，同比-25.75%，实现归母 净利润 0.01 亿元，同比-96.59%。尽管由于受到下游锂电池厂商资本开支水平显著下降的影响， 公司业绩有所承压，但是公司作为国 ...

Core Insights - The current profit cycle for the entire A-share non-financial sector is expected to experience a weak recovery from the confirmed low point in Q2 2023, with a potential duration of 1-3 quarters for recovery to positive growth [1]. - The overall revenue growth rates for the entire A-share and non-financial sectors in 2023 and Q1 2024 show a decline compared to previous quarters, indicating a challenging economic environment [6][7]. - The net profit margin for the entire A-share non-financial sector is stabilizing at a low level, while asset turnover and debt ratios continue to decline, impacting overall return on equity (ROE) [18][19]. Revenue and Profit Growth Overview - The cumulative revenue growth rates for the entire A-share and non-financial sectors in 2023 were 0.8% and 2.1%, respectively, with a decline in growth rates observed in Q1 2024 [6]. - The cumulative net profit growth rates for the entire A-share and non-financial sectors in 2023 were -0.5% and -1.8%, respectively, with a further decline expected in Q1 2024 [6][7]. - The oil and petrochemical industry showed better performance in Q1 2024, but excluding this sector, the overall revenue growth for the non-financial sector turned negative [6]. Industry Performance and Trends - The proportion of upstream resource industries in the entire A-share non-financial sector has decreased from 28.8% in Q1 2023 to 24.3% in Q1 2024, primarily due to base effects [9]. - The ROE for the entire A-share non-financial sector was 7.6% in Q4 2023, showing slight recovery, but dropped to 7.3% in Q1 2024, indicating ongoing challenges [18]. - The sales net profit margin for the entire A-share non-financial sector was 4.3% in Q1 2024, showing signs of stabilization compared to previous quarters [18]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The overall cash flow quality for the entire A-share non-financial sector weakened in Q1 2024, with net cash flow as a percentage of revenue at -2.3% [22]. - The asset turnover ratio for the entire A-share non-financial sector declined, indicating weaker revenue elasticity compared to asset growth [18]. - The financial health of companies in the sector is under pressure, with a continued decline in debt ratios and asset turnover, impacting overall profitability [18][19].

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024年5月8日 强于大市 消费型交通主题系列点评 之一 综合交通网络优势叠加民众旅游意愿增强，带动 假期旅游出行市场高景气度延续 据交通运输部统计数据显示，5 月 1 日至 5 日（“五一”劳动节假期），全 社会跨区域人员流动量13.58亿人次，日均超2.7亿人次，比2019年同期（劳 动节假期期间）增长 23.7％，比 2023年同期增长 2.1％。我们认为：综合交 通网络优势叠加后疫情时代民众旅游意愿增强，带动假期旅游出行市场高景 气度延续，建议关注性价比高且具有差异化特征的出行链投资机会。 支撑评级的要点  我国综合交通运输网络日益完善，为大众高效出行提供坚实保障。 改革开放以来，我国积极推进交通运输体系建设，综合交通基础设施基本实 现网络化。根据交通运输部公布数据显示，截至2022年底，全国铁路营业 里程达到15.5万公里，其中高速铁路营业里程超过4.2万公里；全国公路里 程达到 535.5 万公里，其中高速公路里程 17.7 万公里；内河航道通航里程 12.8万公里；民用航空颁证运输机场254个。根据国务院发布的《“十四五” 现代综合交通运输体系发展规 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company has a solid consumer base and continues to achieve steady growth in performance, with 2023 revenue reaching RMB 83.27 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 30.21 billion, up 13.2% [2][3] - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 34.83 billion, a year-on-year growth of 11.9%, and net profit of RMB 14.05 billion, an increase of 12.0% [2][3] - The company has shown consistent double-digit growth in revenue over the past four years, with growth rates between 10% and 16% [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2023, the company's liquor revenue was RMB 62.8 billion, up 13.5% year-on-year, with sales volume increasing by 18.0% to 39,000 tons [2][3] - The average selling price of products has slightly decreased, with the price of the flagship product "Pu Wu" at RMB 940-950, which is lower than the previous year [2][3] - The company has increased its market promotion efforts for lower-alcohol products and the "1618" brand, contributing to revenue growth [2][3] Sales Channels and Market Strategy - The company has upgraded its channel capabilities, adding 26,000 core terminals and expanding its specialty store count to over 1,600 across more than 300 cities [2][3] - Revenue from the distribution model reached RMB 46 billion, up 13.6%, while direct sales revenue was RMB 30.46 billion, up 12.5%, indicating synchronized growth in both models [2][3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth from 2024 to 2026, with projected revenue growth rates of 12.1%, 10.3%, and 9.1% respectively, and net profit growth rates of 12.5%, 11.0%, and 9.8% [2][3] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 8.76, 9.72, and 10.67 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.7X, 15.9X, and 14.5X [2][3]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|---------------------|-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n5 月金股组合 | —— 晨会聚焦 \n | | | 2024 年 5 月 8 日 | | 股票代码 | | 股票名称 | | 中银晨会聚焦 -20240508 | | 002352.SZ | | 顺丰控股 | | | | 600309.SH | | 万华化学 | | | | 688019.SH | | 安集科技 | ■ | 重点关注 | | 300274.SZ | | 阳光电源 | 【 | 公用事业 】林洋能源 * ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating, expecting the company's stock price to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next 6-12 months [4][34]. Core Views - The company reported a 17% year-on-year growth in 2023, with total revenue reaching 1.946 billion RMB and a net profit of 412 million RMB, reflecting a 16.85% increase [34]. - In Q1 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in net profit, down 70.80% year-on-year, attributed to the transitional phase of new production capacity [34]. - The wind power sector remains stable, with a 6.65% increase in product shipments and a 1.47% rise in revenue from wind power products [34]. - The company plans to invest 2.651 billion RMB in a new project to enhance forging capacity, which is expected to improve competitiveness and profitability in the long term [34]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023-2026 are as follows: 1.946 billion RMB in 2023, 2.308 billion RMB in 2024, 3.160 billion RMB in 2025, and 3.857 billion RMB in 2026, with growth rates of 7.4%, 18.6%, 36.9%, and 22.0% respectively [2][9]. - Net profit is projected to grow from 412 million RMB in 2023 to 876 million RMB in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 16.8%, 23.9%, 37.3%, and 23.9% [2][9]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 1.27 RMB in 2023 to 2.67 RMB in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 15.2 to 7.2 over the same period [9][34]. Operational Insights - The company is in a transitional phase with new production capacity, which has temporarily impacted profitability, but long-term growth prospects remain positive [34]. - The gross margin for the wind power segment improved by 3.16 percentage points to 33.50% due to a decrease in raw material prices [34]. - The company’s operational cash flow is projected to improve significantly, with expectations of 500 million RMB by 2026 [2].