电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 5 月 9 日 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|-----------| | | | | | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 265.42 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 208.55 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 12,365.74 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 217.50 | | 主要股东 | | | | 姚力军 | | 21.39 | | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind | ，中银证券 | | 相关研究报告 《江丰电子》20231102 《江丰电子》20230411 《江丰电子》20221104 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电子：半导体 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 联系人：赵泰 tai.zhao@bocichina.com 一般证券 ...

有色金属 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024年5月9日 603799.SH 华友钴业 增持 金属价格下行盈利承压，一体化优势有望显现 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 29.39 公司发布2023年年报和2024年一季报，2023年全年实现营收663.04亿元， 同比增长 5.19%；公司主营产品销量逆势增长，一体化程度进一步加强，维 板块评级:强于大市 持增持评级。 支撑评级的要点 股价表现  2023年公司归母净利润同比下降 14.30%：公司发布2023年年报，全年 实现营收663.04亿元，同比增长5.19%；实现归母净利润33.51亿元，同 2% 比减少14.30%；实现扣非净利润30.93亿元，同比减少22.30%。根据年 (10%) 报计算，2023Q4 公司实现归母净利润 3.38 亿元，同比减少 62.56%，环 (21%) 比减少63.61%。 (33%)  2024年一季度归母净利润5.22亿元：2024Q1公司实现归母净利润5.22 (45%) 亿元，同比下降48.99%；扣非归母净利润5.68亿元，同比下降42.97%。 (57%) 销售毛利率同比下降4.12个百分点至1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][7][8] Core Views - The company's revenue for the year 2023 was RMB 12.007 billion, a slight decrease of 1.64% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 29.58% to RMB 1.064 billion [1][2] - The company's main business performance was affected by a weak shipping market, but the special ship market remained relatively stable, leading to a positive outlook for future equipment exports [1][8] - The report highlights the resilience of heavy lift and semi-submersible vessels due to the unique nature of the cargo they transport, while the multi-purpose vessel market faced a decline [1][2] Revenue and Profitability - The company's operating revenue decreased by 1.64% year-on-year to RMB 12.007 billion, while operating costs increased by 3.87% due to higher voyage operating expenses [1][2] - The average daily freight rate for multi-purpose vessels fell by 41.76% to USD 14,452, with a gross margin decrease of 19.85 percentage points to 5.72% [1][2] - The report notes a significant increase in the company's investment income from automobile shipping, which reached RMB 126 million, a year-on-year growth of 176.4% [1][2] Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be RMB 1.361 billion, RMB 1.616 billion, and RMB 1.921 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27.9%, 18.7%, and 18.9% respectively [2][3] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are projected to be RMB 0.63, RMB 0.75, and RMB 0.89, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.0, 8.4, and 7.1 [2][3] Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the automobile shipping market, with a reported export volume of 5.221 million vehicles in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 57.4% [1][2] - The report emphasizes the company's strong performance in the automobile shipping segment, which is expected to continue contributing positively to its investment returns [1][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expectation that the stock price will outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next 6-12 months [10]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's 2023 annual performance met expectations, with a significant focus on expanding into emerging fields [3]. - The company reported a net profit of 50.30 million RMB in 2023, a decrease of 68.39% year-on-year, while the first quarter of 2024 showed a recovery with a profit of 316.89 million RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 116.36% [14]. - The company is actively exploring new customer bases and product lines, which are expected to contribute positively to future performance [14]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Main revenue for 2023 was 4,541 million RMB, with a projected increase to 5,094 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 12.2% [4]. - EBITDA for 2023 was 264 million RMB, expected to rise to 368 million RMB in 2024 [4]. - Net profit for 2023 was 50 million RMB, with projections of 96 million RMB for 2024, indicating a significant recovery [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 was 0.61 RMB, with forecasts of 1.17 RMB for 2024 and 1.65 RMB for 2025 [4]. - The previous EPS forecast for 2024 was significantly higher at 3.33 RMB, indicating a downward adjustment of 64.9% [4]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 35.0 for 2024, decreasing to 24.9 in 2025 and 18.3 in 2026 [4]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to remain stable around 1.3 for 2024 and 2025 [4]. - **Market Performance**: - The company’s stock price was reported at 41.06 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 3,374.49 million RMB [10][13]. Business Development - The company has seen a growth in battery production, with a total output of 4.44 billion units in 2023, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.14% [14]. - The company is investing in new technologies such as sodium-ion and solid-state batteries, which are expected to enhance future growth opportunities [14].

有色金属 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 5 月 9 日 300618.SZ 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 29.89 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (44%) (34%) (24%) (14%) (4%) 6% May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Apr-24May-24 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------------|-------------------|--------|----------| | 寒锐钴业 \n(%) | \n今年 至今 | 深圳成指 \n1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | 绝对 | 7.0 | (5.7) | 31.0 | (10.3) | | 相对深圳成指 | 4.5 | (8.3) | 21.7 | 3.8 | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | | | 312.23 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | | | 272.61 | | 总市值 ( 人 ...

Core Insights - The report focuses on "broadly defined new growth stocks" within long-term growth industries such as electronics, communications, computers, media, machinery, defense, automotive, power equipment, food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, light industry, and social services [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting high-quality new growth stocks, as only about 10% of stocks listed since 2010 have achieved returns exceeding 500% [17] - The lifecycle of "broadly defined new growth stocks" is categorized into three stages: IPO initial stage, consolidation stage, and trend verification stage [45][49] Industry and Company Analysis - The report identifies industries with a five-year net profit growth rate exceeding 100%, primarily in TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) and high-end manufacturing, as well as essential consumer sectors like food and pharmaceuticals [3][25] - The DCF three-stage discount model is utilized to evaluate the long-term growth potential of companies, focusing on those with high compound growth rates in the second stage and stable growth in the third stage [2][25] - The report outlines four main patterns of "broadly defined new growth stocks": "stair-step pattern," "late bloomer pattern," "ephemeral pattern," and "weak pattern," each with distinct characteristics and investment implications [47][62] Investment Strategy - A screening system for "broadly defined new growth stocks" is proposed, incorporating market patterns and fundamental indicators to identify stocks with high growth potential [57][59] - The report suggests focusing on two main themes for investment: "AI+" and "manufacturing upgrades," as well as emerging consumer trends driven by changing consumption patterns [105][124] - Historical backtesting of the screening system indicates that stocks meeting the criteria have a higher probability of achieving significant returns compared to the overall market performance of new growth stocks [96][99]

全 A/非金融营收、盈利仍处于磨底阶段。2024Q1 未能延续 2023 下半年以来的弱修复趋势，但 2024Q2 盈利增速修复 斜率有望明显上行。 净利润率低位企稳，但周转率、负债率仍在下行。资产负债率和资产周转率仍未企稳。2024Q1 资产负债率为下滑幅 度偏大且弱于季节性因素，上游行业利润修复强劲且资本开支降低带动负债率持续下行。销售净利率止跌迹象较资产 周转率、负债率更为明显，较 2023Q4 仅小幅下滑 0.1Pct，伴随 PPI 下行趋势触底，全 A 非金融销售净利率处于磨底 状态。全 A 非金融毛利率自 2023Q2 盈利底后仍保持反弹修复趋势，但四费率整体仍处于高位并拖累净利率表现。 盈利权重行业拖累全 A 业绩修复力度。全 A 净利润占比权重最高的三个大类方向分别是金融、上游资源、中游先进制 造，2024Q1 同比仍为负增，成为拖累全 A 盈利修复的主因，正增方向主要集中在必需消费、TMT、可选消费、公用 事业方向，但由于相关行业盈利基数占比较少，拉动效果较为有限。三大拖累方向内部亦存在显著分化。 2024 年 5 月 9 日 中银晨会聚焦-20240509 2 王靖添 支撑评级的要点 | ...

增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 53.64 板块评级:强于大市 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|------------|----------| | | | | | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 114.80 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 58.82 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 6,157.87 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 45.93 | | 主要股东 | | | | 江苏阳泰企业管理有限公司 | | 19.02 | | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind | ，中银证券 | | 公司公布 2023 年年报及 2024 年一季报，2023 年公司实现营收 5.25 亿元，同比+0.52%，实现归 母净利润 0.67 亿元，同比-39.97%；2024 年一季度实现营收 1.21 亿元，同比-25.75%，实现归母 净利润 0.01 亿元，同比-96.59%。尽管由于受到下游锂电池厂商资本开支水平显著下降的影响， 公司业绩有所承压，但是公司作为国 ...

Core Insights - The current profit cycle for the entire A-share non-financial sector is expected to experience a weak recovery from the confirmed low point in Q2 2023, with a potential duration of 1-3 quarters for recovery to positive growth [1]. - The overall revenue growth rates for the entire A-share and non-financial sectors in 2023 and Q1 2024 show a decline compared to previous quarters, indicating a challenging economic environment [6][7]. - The net profit margin for the entire A-share non-financial sector is stabilizing at a low level, while asset turnover and debt ratios continue to decline, impacting overall return on equity (ROE) [18][19]. Revenue and Profit Growth Overview - The cumulative revenue growth rates for the entire A-share and non-financial sectors in 2023 were 0.8% and 2.1%, respectively, with a decline in growth rates observed in Q1 2024 [6]. - The cumulative net profit growth rates for the entire A-share and non-financial sectors in 2023 were -0.5% and -1.8%, respectively, with a further decline expected in Q1 2024 [6][7]. - The oil and petrochemical industry showed better performance in Q1 2024, but excluding this sector, the overall revenue growth for the non-financial sector turned negative [6]. Industry Performance and Trends - The proportion of upstream resource industries in the entire A-share non-financial sector has decreased from 28.8% in Q1 2023 to 24.3% in Q1 2024, primarily due to base effects [9]. - The ROE for the entire A-share non-financial sector was 7.6% in Q4 2023, showing slight recovery, but dropped to 7.3% in Q1 2024, indicating ongoing challenges [18]. - The sales net profit margin for the entire A-share non-financial sector was 4.3% in Q1 2024, showing signs of stabilization compared to previous quarters [18]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The overall cash flow quality for the entire A-share non-financial sector weakened in Q1 2024, with net cash flow as a percentage of revenue at -2.3% [22]. - The asset turnover ratio for the entire A-share non-financial sector declined, indicating weaker revenue elasticity compared to asset growth [18]. - The financial health of companies in the sector is under pressure, with a continued decline in debt ratios and asset turnover, impacting overall profitability [18][19].

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024年5月8日 强于大市 消费型交通主题系列点评 之一 综合交通网络优势叠加民众旅游意愿增强，带动 假期旅游出行市场高景气度延续 据交通运输部统计数据显示，5 月 1 日至 5 日（“五一”劳动节假期），全 社会跨区域人员流动量13.58亿人次，日均超2.7亿人次，比2019年同期（劳 动节假期期间）增长 23.7％，比 2023年同期增长 2.1％。我们认为：综合交 通网络优势叠加后疫情时代民众旅游意愿增强，带动假期旅游出行市场高景 气度延续，建议关注性价比高且具有差异化特征的出行链投资机会。 支撑评级的要点  我国综合交通运输网络日益完善，为大众高效出行提供坚实保障。 改革开放以来，我国积极推进交通运输体系建设，综合交通基础设施基本实 现网络化。根据交通运输部公布数据显示，截至2022年底，全国铁路营业 里程达到15.5万公里，其中高速铁路营业里程超过4.2万公里；全国公路里 程达到 535.5 万公里，其中高速公路里程 17.7 万公里；内河航道通航里程 12.8万公里；民用航空颁证运输机场254个。根据国务院发布的《“十四五” 现代综合交通运输体系发展规 ...