宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2024 年 9 月 1 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 关注生产端的后续走势 大类资产配置顺序：债券>大宗>股票>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 经济数据：7 月份规上工业企业利润同比增长 4.1%；1-7 月，全国一般公 共预算收入同比下降 2.6%，全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 2.5%。 要闻：习近平主持召开中央全面深化改革委员会第六次会议；央行等八部 门印发《关于进一步做好金融支持长江经济带绿色低碳高质量发展的指导 意见》；《中国的能源转型》白皮书发布；商务部等 4 部门办公厅发布《关 于进一步做好家电以旧换新工作的通知》；国家主席习近平会见美国总统 国家安全事务助理沙利文。 资产表现回顾 人民币汇率升值带动风险资产价格上行趋势。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.17%，沪深 300 股指期货上涨 0.31%；焦煤期货本周上涨 3.8%，铁矿石 主力合约本周上涨 4.27%；股份制银行理财预期收益率收于 2.08%，余额 宝 7 天年化收益率下跌 1BP 至 1.38%；十年国债收益率上行 2BP 至 2.17%， 活跃十年国债期货本周下跌 0.22%。 资产配置建议 大类 ...

计算机 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 9 月 3 日 Aug-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24 奇安信-U 上证综指 688561.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 22.60 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (60%) (48%) (35%) (23%) (10%) 2% (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (41.8) (0.6) (14.4) (57.9) 相对上证综指 (37.8) 0.7 (6.4) (48.5) | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|-----------| | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 685.17 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 510.06 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 15,484.90 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 88.17 | | 主要股东 | | | ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-------------------|--------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n9 月金股组合 | —— 晨会聚焦 \n | | | 2024 年 9 月 3 日 | | 股票代码 600309.SH | | 股票名称 万华化学 | | 中银晨会聚焦 -20240903 | | | | | | | | 002409.SZ | | 雅克科技 | | ■ 重点关注 | | 300750.SZ | | 宁德时代 | | | | 603203.SH | | 快克智能 | | 【 食品饮料 】泸州老窖 * 邓天娇。 泸州老窖公告 2024 年半年报业绩。 1H24 | | 688198.SH | | 佰仁医 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year decline in net profit of 49.04% in the first half of 2024, despite a revenue increase of 7.64% to RMB 200.19 million [2][4]. - The main business of lubrication systems saw a revenue decrease of 15.42% due to price reductions, impacting gross margin [2][4]. - The hydraulic systems business achieved a revenue increase of 95.85%, although its gross margin decreased [2][4]. - The stock incentive plan has temporarily pressured net profit, but is expected to enhance employee motivation and innovation in the long term [2][4]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 200.19 million, with a gross profit margin of 38.93%, down from 47.96% in the same period of 2023 [4][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 29.50 million, reflecting a 49.04% decrease year-on-year [4][5]. - The company adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 to RMB 0.71, 0.80, and 1.13 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 27.7, 24.6, and 17.5 [2][3]. Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at RMB 19.68, with a market capitalization of RMB 2,924.14 million [1][2]. - The stock has underperformed relative to the Shenzhen Composite Index, with a relative performance of -24.3% over the past year [1][2].

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 9 月 3 日 002436.SZ 兴森科技 24H1 业绩承压，封装基板稳步迈进静待花开 公司发布 2024 年半年报，上半年公司利润端整体承压，但伴随公司封装基板业务的 稳步发展，公司业绩或有望随高端品类放量转暖，维持增持评级。 支撑评级的要点 公司 24H1 营收增长，利润承压。公司 24H1 实现营收 28.81 亿元，同比+12.29%，实现归 母净利润 0.20 亿元，同比+7.99%，实现扣非归母净利润 0.29 亿元，同比+353.13%。盈利能 力来看，公司 24H1 实现毛利率 16.56%，同比-8.62pcts，实现归母净利率 0.68%，同比-0.03pct， 实现扣非归母净利率 1.00%，同比+0.75pct；单季度来看，公司 24Q2 实现营收 14.93 亿元， 同比+13.59%/环比+7.50%，实现归母净利润-0.05 亿元，同环比转亏，实现扣非归母净利润 0.05 亿元，同比-10.9%/环比-79.79%。公司 24Q2 实现毛利率 16.09%，同比-10.09pcts/环比 -0.98pct。上述变化主要系 ...

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 9 月 3 日 688049.SH 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 22.30 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 1 3 12 (39%) (27%) (15%) (4%) 8% 20% Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24 炬芯科技 上证综指 至今 个月 个月 个月 绝对 (39.8) 2.0 (14.5) (33.0) 相对上证综指 (35.7) 3.3 (6.4) (23.6) | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|----------| | | | | | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 146.14 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 108.80 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 3,258.84 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 80.92 | | 主要股东 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The AR glasses market is expected to reach a scale of 1 to 1.4 billion units, driven by hardware breakthroughs and the integration of edge AI [10][11] - The report emphasizes that AR glasses can replace smartphones by providing similar functionalities while being more convenient and efficient [10][11] - The development timeline suggests that 2025 will be a pivotal year for AR glasses, akin to the launch of the first iPhone in 2007, with significant advancements expected by 2027 [10][25] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The report argues that AR glasses, equipped with displays, will become the next generation of consumer electronic computing platforms, contrasting with non-display AI glasses [10] Historical Review - AR glasses have evolved to combine AR display capabilities with a lightweight form factor, enhancing user experience through real-time interaction and virtual object integration [11][13] Current Market Dynamics - The current market features three main categories of AR glasses: lightweight smart glasses, viewing glasses, and fully functional AR glasses, each with distinct capabilities and target audiences [16][19][22] Future Outlook - Major tech companies are expected to enter the AR glasses market, with Meta's upcoming products anticipated to set new standards and accelerate market growth [24][25] Hardware Bottlenecks - Key hardware components such as SoC, micro-display optics, and waveguide lenses are identified as critical areas for innovation and investment opportunities [3][10] Recommended Companies - The report recommends investing in companies like GoerTek, Luxshare Precision, Longqi Technology, Hengxuan Technology, and Weir Shares, which are well-positioned in the AR glasses supply chain [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [1]. Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue and net profit figures in the first half of 2024, with significant growth in its smart wearables, server, and AIoT businesses. The report highlights multiple acquisition announcements aimed at enhancing customer reach, component capabilities, and global expansion [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 39.397 billion, a slight decrease of 0.76% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.291 billion, an increase of 0.73% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 11.74%, up by 1.89 percentage points [1]. - For Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 23.169 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.76%. The net profit for the quarter was RMB 0.686 billion, a decrease of 0.87% year-on-year but an increase of 13.23% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Business Segments - The smart terminal segment, which includes smartphones and smart wearables, generated RMB 12.4 billion in revenue, accounting for 33% of total revenue. While smartphone shipments saw a slight decline, smart wearables experienced rapid growth [1]. - The high-performance computing segment, which includes PCs, tablets, and data products, generated RMB 22.2 billion, representing 60% of total revenue. The server revenue grew by 150% year-on-year, and the company launched an AI server with a full-stack layout [1]. - The AIoT business achieved revenue of RMB 1.84 billion, a remarkable year-on-year growth of 316%, with products including smart home devices and audio products [1]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The company has been active in mergers and acquisitions, including a cash acquisition of 80% of a company specializing in high-fidelity and Bluetooth audio products. This move is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness and global footprint [1]. Valuation - The report slightly raises the earnings forecast, projecting earnings per share of RMB 2.86, RMB 3.31, and RMB 3.90 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are 16.2x, 14.0x, and 11.9x [1].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The dry bulk container production reached a record high in Q2, but there may be downward pressure on container shipping rates in the next 12 months due to oversupply [2][15] - The three major airlines reduced losses by CNY 5.797 billion in the first half of 2024, with the C919 aircraft entering a new phase of multi-user operations [2][16] - China's cross-border e-commerce is accelerating its expansion into Africa, with Fengchao officially submitting an IPO application [2][22] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - Dry bulk container production hit a record high in Q2, with July production exceeding 850,000 TEU, and manufacturers' orders extending to mid-October. Drewry forecasts 2024 to be the second-highest year for dry bulk container production, following 2021. However, oversupply may pressure shipping rates in the next 12 months, with Linerlytica predicting a 70% decline in rates [2][15] - The three major airlines reported a total loss reduction of CNY 5.797 billion in H1 2024. Eastern Airlines reported a net loss of CNY 2.768 billion, while Air China and Southern Airlines reported losses of CNY 2.782 billion and CNY 1.228 billion, respectively. The airlines need to enhance cost control to achieve profitability [2][16] - Fengchao submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for expanding its smart locker network. The African digital economy is projected to add USD 180 billion to the region's GDP by 2025, with significant growth in online shoppers expected by 2027 [2][22] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air freight prices remained stable from mid-August to late August, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 4,788 points, up 33.3% year-on-year. The Baltic air freight price index was at 2,177 points, up 16.6% year-on-year [3][23] - The container shipping price index (SCFI) fell to 2,968.38 points, down 4.33% week-on-week, while the domestic trade container price index (PDCI) was at 941 points, down 4.95% week-on-week [3][31] - In July 2024, domestic cargo flights increased by 14.48% year-on-year, while international flights rose by 24.71% year-on-year [3][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][2] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the consumer electronics industry, with steady growth in performance. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 451 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.89%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 119 million, up 9.42% year-on-year [2][4] - The company is actively expanding into the new energy vehicle and semiconductor sectors, further opening up growth opportunities. The report emphasizes the company's strong performance in precision welding equipment, which generated revenue of RMB 338 million in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.59% [2][3] - The semiconductor packaging equipment segment is expected to achieve high growth in the future, supported by the company's successful entry into this field through various strategies, including independent research and development and partnerships [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 451 million, with a gross margin of 49.39% and a net margin of 26.13% [4][5] - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of RMB 226 million, a 20.93% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 59 million, up 10.23% year-on-year [5][6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 1.036 billion, RMB 1.290 billion, and RMB 1.497 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 264 million, RMB 336 million, and RMB 405 million for the same years [3][6] - The report indicates an expected EPS of RMB 1.06, RMB 1.35, and RMB 1.62 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.0, 15.0, and 12.4 [3][6] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer of electronic assembly equipment in China, benefiting from the recovery of the consumer electronics sector and actively pursuing opportunities in the new energy vehicle and semiconductor markets [2][3] - The report highlights the company's successful development of AOI multi-dimensional inspection equipment, marking a significant technological advancement and establishing it as a key supplier for major clients [2][3]