食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 9 月 2 日 000568.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 119.28 板块评级:强于大市 本报告要点 泸州老窖 2024 年半年报业绩点评 股价表现 (50%) (40%) (30%) (19%) (9%) 1% Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24 泸州老窖 深圳成指 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (31.0) (4.8) (31.5) (48.9) 相对深圳成指 (19.8) (3.4) (20.4) (28.5) | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|------------| | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 1,471.97 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 1,467.14 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 175,576.16 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2024, with revenue at 24.2 billion RMB, down 10.5% year-on-year, and net profit at 1.17 billion RMB, down 28.7% year-on-year [3][4]. - Despite short-term profit pressures, the company has a strong pipeline of pre-sold projects and a solid land reserve, particularly in Hangzhou and Zhejiang province, which supports future growth [4][3]. - The company is focusing on cost control and maintaining a healthy financial position, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 59.0% and a net debt ratio of 22.9% as of June 2024 [3][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 9.6%, a decrease of 8.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower margins from projects delivered in 2020 and 2021 [3][10]. - The annualized ROE for H1 2024 was 8.8%, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the impact of declining profit margins [3][12]. Sales and Market Position - The company achieved sales of 58.2 billion RMB in H1 2024, a decrease of 37.1% year-on-year, ranking 8th in the industry, an improvement of 3 places from 2023 [3][17]. - The sales target for 2024 is set at over 100 billion RMB, aiming for a market share of 1% and a national ranking within the top 15 [3][4]. Land Acquisition and Development - The company maintained a high land acquisition intensity, with 10 new projects added in H1 2024, all located in Hangzhou, totaling 875,000 square meters, with an acquisition cost of 22.27 billion RMB [3][19]. - As of June 2024, the total land reserve stood at 12.9 million square meters, with 76% located in Hangzhou, ensuring a robust foundation for future development [3][21]. Other Business Initiatives - The company is expanding its leasing and construction management businesses, with plans to add 5-10 new construction management projects in 2024 [3][4]. - The rental income from investment properties reached 198 million RMB in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [3][4].

Macro Economic Overview - The manufacturing PMI index for August is 49.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from July, indicating continued contraction in manufacturing activity [2] - The new orders index for August is 48.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from July, reflecting weak demand in the manufacturing sector [2] - The real estate sector remains a significant drag on overall economic performance, with traditional industries facing challenges due to demand shortfalls [3] Electronics Sector - The company Lixun Precision's H1 2024 performance met expectations, with a revenue growth of 23.89% and a gross margin increase of approximately 1 percentage point [4][5] - The company forecasts a Q3 2024 net profit growth of approximately 20%, driven by advancements in AI technology and the global expansion of smart automotive solutions [4][6] - The consumer electronics segment shows modest growth, with a revenue increase of 3.25%, supported by the rapid iteration of AI models and a recovery in market demand [6] Computer Security Sector - The company Qiming Star's H1 2024 revenue is 15.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, but it reported a net loss of 1.8 billion yuan [8][9] - The company has seen a rapid increase in new orders and a significant improvement in gross margin, which rose by 13.77 percentage points to 64.6% in Q2 [8] - The new security revenue segment has shown robust growth, particularly in cloud security, which increased by over 200% year-on-year [9] Social Services Sector - The company Songcheng Performance reported H1 2024 revenue of 1.177 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59%, and a net profit of 550 million yuan, up 81.75% [11][12] - The growth is driven by an increase in operational days and visitor numbers at scenic spots, with new projects ramping up quickly [11][13] - Existing projects show mixed performance, with some locations recovering faster than others due to varying tourism dynamics [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2024, driven by robust orders and optimized product structure, achieving revenue of RMB 2.396 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 303 million, up 54.49% year-on-year [2][3] - The automotive electronics sector remains the largest sales segment for the company, with a focus on expanding into the new energy vehicle market and enhancing its market share in automotive PCBs [2][3] - The company has proactively developed its AI business, achieving mass production capabilities for various high-tech PCBs required for AI servers, positioning itself as a key supplier for major international clients [2][3] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 5.423 billion, RMB 6.263 billion, and RMB 7.236 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of RMB 627 million, RMB 748 million, and RMB 898 million for the same years [3][4] - The report indicates an expected EPS of RMB 0.95, RMB 1.14, and RMB 1.36 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.1, 16.8, and 14.0 [3][4]

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 9 月 2 日 000848.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 7.27 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 (24%) (17%) (10%) (3%) 4% 11% Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24 承德露露 深圳成指 绝对 (7.5) (4.8) (16.4) (15.3) 相对深圳成指 3.7 (3.4) (5.4) 5.1 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|----------| | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 1,052.55 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 1,039.53 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 7,652.07 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 73.74 | | 主要股东 | | | | 万向三农集 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 8.93 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [12][14]. Core Views - The company's operating performance is steadily improving, with continuous growth in natural gas production and sales [3][14]. - The report highlights that the average realized price of crude oil increased by 8.1% year-on-year, which is higher than the international oil price [14]. - The company achieved a total revenue of RMB 15,538.69 billion in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.00% [15]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was RMB 886.07 billion, up 3.91% year-on-year [15]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Main revenue for 2022 was RMB 3,239,167 million, with a growth rate of 23.9%. For 2023, it is projected to be RMB 3,011,012 million, reflecting a decline of 7.0% [4]. - EBITDA for 2022 was RMB 400,121 million, expected to decrease to RMB 323,727 million in 2023 [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 149,375 million in 2022, projected to increase to RMB 161,144 million in 2023, a growth of 7.9% [4]. - **Quarterly Performance**: - In Q2 2024, total operating revenue was RMB 7,416.85 billion, a slight decrease of 0.76% compared to Q2 2023 [5]. - Net profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 429.26 billion, up 3.07% year-on-year [5]. - **Cost Structure**: - Total operating costs for the first half of 2024 were RMB 14,388.8 billion, an increase of 4.93% from the previous year [15]. - The report notes a significant reduction in financial expenses by 26.08% year-on-year [15]. - **Dividends**: - The company plans to distribute a mid-year dividend of RMB 0.22 per share, with a payout ratio of 45.44%, marking a record high for the period [14][15]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is expected to maintain high capital expenditures, with a focus on oil and gas as well as renewable energy sectors, projected at RMB 2,580 billion for 2024 [14]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in natural gas sales and the chemical sector, despite a decline in refined oil sales [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that silicon wafer prices are expected to rise, with several companies announcing solid-state battery releases. The supply-demand relationship in the photovoltaic sector is gradually easing, and it is anticipated that the silicon material segment will be the first to complete capacity clearance. Longi has raised silicon wafer prices, which may positively impact industry profitability. The demand for inverters remains strong, and it is recommended to prioritize segments with favorable industry structures and clear supply optimization [1]. - In the wind power sector, domestic offshore wind bidding and construction are expected to progress steadily, with plans for deep-sea demonstration projects gradually being introduced. The overseas market is anticipated to see demand release starting in 2025, driven by declining interest rates and project planning, suggesting a focus on tower foundations and submarine cable segments that benefit from offshore wind and overseas expansion logic [1]. - In the electric vehicle sector, material segments continue to face profitability pressures, but it is expected that material price declines will ease in the second half of the year, leading to potential profitability recovery. The solid-state battery industrialization is accelerating, and companies with layouts in relevant fields are expected to benefit [1]. - The domestic power equipment sector is continuously promoting power system reforms, with new policies expected to accelerate the construction of ultra-high voltage and main grid infrastructure, maintaining high demand for related grid equipment. The overseas demand for grid renovation is also robust, suggesting a focus on main grid segments benefiting from ultra-high voltage demand and distribution network segments with overseas expansion logic [1]. - The hydrogen energy sector is seeing continuous policy support for industrialization, with recommendations to focus on electrolyzer manufacturers with cost and technology advantages, as well as companies benefiting from hydrogen infrastructure construction [1]. Market Performance - The power equipment and new energy sector rose by 4.32% this week, outperforming the broader market. The wind power sector increased by 7.41%, while the photovoltaic sector rose by 7.34% [1][7].

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the arrival of the traditional peak season, suggesting to focus on high-quality leading companies in sectors like vitamins, polyester filament, and refrigerants, which have relatively high prosperity [1][6] - It emphasizes the potential for recovery in the semiconductor industry and the importance of large energy state-owned enterprises in improving operational performance under the new era [1][6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance and Price Changes - During the week of August 26 to September 1, 31 out of 101 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 41 experienced declines, and 29 remained stable [1][6] - The average price of WTI crude oil fell by 1.71% to $73.55 per barrel, and Brent crude oil decreased by 0.28% to $78.80 per barrel [1][6] - The average price of methanol increased by 2.76% to 2,193 CNY per ton, driven by improved demand in the olefin industry [1][6] Investment Recommendations - As of September 1, the SW basic chemical sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 18.08, at the 38.29% historical percentile [1][6] - The report recommends focusing on sectors with sustained prosperity, such as fluorochemicals, animal nutrition, and polyester filament, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements [1][6] Key Companies to Watch - Recommended companies include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and leading firms in semiconductor materials and fluorochemicals [1][6] - September's "Golden Stocks" include Wanhua Chemical and Yake Technology, both showing strong performance and growth potential [2][10]

Economic Overview - The manufacturing PMI for August is 49.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from July, indicating continued contraction in manufacturing activity[1] - The new orders index for August is 48.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from July, reflecting weak demand[2] - The production index stands at 49.8%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first contraction since March[2] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing sectors, such as electrical machinery and computer equipment, show resilience with new orders indices above the expansion threshold, increasing by 4.1 and 0.7 percentage points respectively[3] - General and specialized equipment manufacturing also maintain high activity levels, with new orders indices rising by 6.4 and 5.1 percentage points respectively[4] Employment and Inventory Trends - The employment index in manufacturing is at 48.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from July, indicating a decline in workforce engagement[2] - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.6%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index has increased to 48.5%, up 0.7 percentage points[2] Non-Manufacturing Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from July, indicating marginal improvement in the service sector[6] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing is at 46.3%, a rise of 0.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index fell to 47.6%, down 2.0 percentage points from July[6] Risks and Outlook - The report highlights risks such as unexpected resilience in overseas inflation and geopolitical uncertainties that could impact economic stability[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock price will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next 6-12 months [4][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.07 billion RMB for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 7.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.64 billion RMB, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year [4][6]. - The main brand's performance was subdued, with a decline in sales volume and pressure on unit prices in the second quarter of 2024 [4][6]. - Cost benefits are accelerating, leading to improved profitability despite revenue declines, with a focus on high-quality development and inventory management [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H24, the company achieved a revenue of 20.07 billion RMB, down 7.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.64 billion RMB, up 6.3% year-on-year [4][6]. - The average selling price per ton in 1H24 was 4,335 RMB, with sales volume decreasing by 7.8% to 463 million hectoliters [4][6]. - The gross margin improved to 41.6%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, due to a significant reduction in unit costs [4][6]. Cost and Expenses - The unit cost in 2Q24 decreased by 5.4% year-on-year, contributing to a 3.1% reduction in unit costs for 1H24 [4][6]. - Selling expenses were managed prudently, with a slight decrease in the selling expense ratio [4][6]. Future Outlook - Short-term revenue growth may face challenges due to weak consumer demand, but the company expects double-digit growth in net profit for 2024 due to cost benefits [4][6]. - The company is committed to high-quality development and has been enhancing inventory management, which is expected to support stable operations in the future [4][6]. Valuation - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 are 3.45 RMB, 3.73 RMB, and 3.99 RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 10.1%, 8.3%, and 7.0% respectively [5][6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same period are projected at 17.3, 15.9, and 14.9 times [5][6].