计算机 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 8 月 21 日 688111.SH 金山办公 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 191.15 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (49%) (38%) (27%) (16%) (5%) 6% Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24 金山办公 上证综指 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (37.0) (6.1) (34.8) (48.1) 相对上证综指 (33.8) (2.2) (25.2) (39.6) | --- | |-----------| | 462.53 | | 462.53 | | 88,411.78 | | 798.17 | | | | 51.59 | | | 以 2024 年 8 月 20 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《金山办公》20240321 《金山办公》20231026 《金山办公》20230823 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 计算机：软件开发 证券分析师：杨思睿 (8610 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n8 月金股组合 股票代码 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n股票名称 | 2024 年 8 月 21 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20240821 | | 1519.HK | | 极兔速递 -W | | | 002001.SZ | | 新和成 | | | | | | ■ 重点关注 | | 002409.SZ | | 雅克科技 | | | 002340.SZ | | 格林美 佰仁医疗 | 【电力设备】东方电缆 * 陶波 曹鸿生。公司公布 2024 年半年报， 2024 年上 | | 688198.SH 688085. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected outperformance of 10%-20% relative to the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [1][3] Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 19.4% YoY and 39.83% QoQ, reaching RMB 208 million, demonstrating strong profit resilience [1] - The company's negative electrode material sales volume grew by 59.34% YoY in H1 2024, reaching 83,800 tons, despite facing pricing pressure due to industry competition [1] - The company is actively pursuing an internationalization strategy, with plans to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in Singapore and Spain, aiming to expand its overseas market presence [1] - The company is increasing R&D investment in silicon-carbon negative electrode materials, with a mature technical team and pilot production line in place, expecting to achieve batch supply in the future [1] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached RMB 2.093 billion, a 6.45% YoY increase, while net profit attributable to the parent company declined by 11.86% YoY to RMB 357 million [1][4] - The gross profit margin for negative electrode materials decreased by 7.79 percentage points YoY to 23.32% in H1 2024, reflecting pricing pressure in the industry [1] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 2.80, RMB 3.46, and RMB 4.39, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.0x, 10.5x, and 8.3x [1][2] Operational Highlights - The company expects to maintain full production capacity in Q3 2024, with a focus on differentiated products such as fast-charging and ultra-fast-charging negative electrode materials to enhance competitiveness [1] - The company's operating cash flow is projected to improve significantly, from RMB -416 million in 2023 to RMB 367 million in 2024E, reflecting better working capital management [5] Valuation and Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 24.1% from 2024E to 2026E, reaching RMB 8.389 billion by 2026E [2][6] - The company's ROE is projected to recover from 12.8% in 2023 to 14.6% in 2026E, driven by improved profitability and operational efficiency [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next 6-12 months [3][10]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 (24H1) increased significantly, driven by a recovery in demand in the consumer and networking markets, leading to stable growth in sales of storage chips [3][4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 3.609 billion RMB in 24H1, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 517 million RMB, up 53.88% year-on-year [4]. - The report highlights the company's strong position in the storage market, particularly in Flash and DRAM products, and its ongoing diversification efforts in product lines such as MCU and sensors [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 24H1, the company reported a gross margin of 38.16%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 14.33%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - For the second quarter of 2024 (24Q2), the company achieved a revenue of 1.982 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.99% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.78% [4]. - The net profit for 24Q2 was 312 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 67.95% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 52.46% [4]. Market Position and Product Development - The company is the second-largest SPI NOR Flash manufacturer globally, offering a wide range of products across various specifications and applications, including automotive electronics [4]. - The DRAM market is showing signs of recovery, with niche product prices rising due to supply constraints and increased demand from consumer electronics [4]. - The company has successfully launched multiple MCU products and is expanding its sensor product lines, including fingerprint recognition solutions for PCs [4]. Future Projections - The report forecasts revenues of 7.580 billion RMB, 9.204 billion RMB, and 10.829 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.205 billion RMB, 1.862 billion RMB, and 2.085 billion RMB [5][4]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 43.8, 28.3, and 25.3, respectively, indicating a favorable outlook for the company's valuation [5][4].

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 8 月 21 日 603919.SH 金徽酒 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 17.10 板块评级:强于大市 本报告要点 金徽酒 2024 年中报业绩点评 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (29.5) (10.8) (24.0) (33.1) (32%) (22%) (12%) (2%) 8% 18% Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24 金徽酒 上证综指 相对上证综指 (26.3) (6.9) (14.4) (24.7) | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|----------| | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 507.26 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 507.26 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 8,674.15 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ...

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 业绩评论 2024 年 8 月 21 日 000729.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 9.83 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (26%) (20%) (15%) (9%) (3%) 3% Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24 燕京啤酒 深圳成指 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 13.6 0.8 (4.0) (6.9) 相对深圳成指 24.8 7.0 9.9 13.2 | --- | |-----------| | 2,818.54 | | 2,509.56 | | 27,706.24 | | 180.91 | | | | 57.4 | | | 以 2024 年 8 月 19 日收市价为标准 燕京啤酒 吨价增幅亮眼，降本增效成果持续显现 燕京啤酒披露 2024 年中报，1H24 实现营收 80.5 亿元，同比+5.5%，实现归母/扣非 归母净利润 7.6/7.4 亿元，分别同比+47.5%/+69.1%；其中 2Q24 实现营收 44 ...

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024 年 8 月 20 日 强于大市 社服与消费视角点评 7月国 内宏观数据 七月社零稳健增长，暑期旅游市场维持高景气度 国家统计局等部门公布了部分 2024 年 7 月国内宏观数据。其中，7 月社零总 额同比增长 2.7%，环比提升 0.7pct；7 月餐饮收入同比增长 3.0%，环比减少 2.4pct。7 月服务业 PMI 为 50.0%。受促消费政策、暑期出行旺季等因素影响， 社零数据延续稳健增长，我们维持行业强于大市评级。 支撑评级的要点 社零延续平稳恢复，文旅出行市场消费活力较好。7 月社零总额为 37757 亿元，yoy+2.7%，增速环比+0.7pct；1-7 月社零规模累计超 27 万亿元， yoy+3.5%。7 月餐饮收入 4403 亿元，yoy+3.0%，1-7 月餐饮收入累计达 30647 亿元，yoy+7.1%。1-7 月份，服务零售额同比增长 7.2%，快于商品零售额 4.1pct。在暑期旅游旺季带动下，交通出行服务类、旅游咨询租赁服务类、 文体休闲服务类消费增长较快；奥运赛事带动下体育娱乐用品类商品零售 额增长 4.7%。7 月社零增速 ...

计算机 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 8 月 20 日 603171.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 24.60 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 (47%) (37%) (26%) (16%) (6%) 5% Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24 税友股份 上证综指 绝对 (27.9) (14.4) 2.9 (36.5) 相对上证综指 (25.6) (11.5) 11.1 (28.8) | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|-----------| | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 407.19 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 405.89 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 10,016.81 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 255.86 | | 主要股东 | | | ...

通信 | 行业策略报告 —行业策略报告 2024 年 8 月 20 日 强于大市 通信行业 2024 年中期策略 万象归一，业绩为君 业绩兑现是 2024 年市场真正关心的变量，不管是人工智能还是红利板块，业 绩为王将是贯穿全年的主线，产业和政策两手都要抓，下半年亦如此。从产 业端来看，2023 年人工智能的雄图展望将在 2024 年得到验证，我们预期光 模块、铜链接将成为 AI 上游硬件首先兑现业绩的板块。从政策端来看，国家 对车路云和卫星通信的支持，将成为行业业绩兑现的重要支持。 支撑评级的要点 稳中求变，2024 年下半年通信行业力求"突围"。通信板块 2024 年 Q1 营收和归母净利润稳中有增，行业开源节流。人工智能投资，已经成为 运营商固定投资之外重要的行业增长极。年初至 6 月 28 日，通信（申万） 指数累计涨幅 3.63%，跑赢上证综指 3.88pct、跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.74pct， 虽然通信行业配置比趋于历史高位，但估值提升趋势依旧明显。 AI 行业变革带来了通信传输方式的变革，光通信和铜连接双星并耀。大 型科技企业正竞相开发具有海量参数的先进模型，对计算基础架构提出 了挑战。这 ...

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 8 月 20 日 603606.SH 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 47.00 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (19%) (9%) 1% 11% 21% 31% Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24 东方电缆 上证综指 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | (%) | 今年 | 1 | 3 | 12 | | | 至今 | 个月 | 个月 | 个月 | | 绝对 | 10.2 | 1.8 | (1.1) | 16.0 | | 相对上证综指 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 7.2 | 23.7 | | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-----------| | 发行股数 (百万) | 687.72 | | 流通股 (百万) | 687.72 | | 总市值 (人民币 ...