基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年6月16日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20240616 国际油价上涨，涤纶长丝价格上涨 6月份建议关注：1、关注MDI、涤纶长丝、制冷剂、化肥等产品库存及价格变化；2、大基金三 期、下游扩产等多因素催化，关注部分半导体、OLED等电子材料公司；3、大宗商品价格上行， 关注大型能源央企及相关油服公司在新时代背景下的改革改善与经营业绩提升；4、地产及节能 降碳政策影响下，相关产业链产品的预期变化及后续景气度改善。 行业动态 ◼ 本周（6.10-6.16）均价跟踪的101个化工品种中，共有29个品种价格上涨，45个品种价格 下跌，27 个品种价格稳定。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是高效氯氟氰菊酯、NYMEX 天然 气、硫酸(浙江巨化98%)、顺丁橡胶（华东）、丁苯橡胶（华东1502）；而周均价跌幅居前 的品种分别是电石（华东）、丁二烯（东南亚CFR）、液氯（长三角）、煤焦油（山西）、 轻质纯碱（华东）。 ◼ 本周（6.10-6.16）国际油价上涨，WTI原油收于78.53美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅4.15%；布伦 特原油收于82.67美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅4.03%。宏观方 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The AI large model industry is experiencing significant growth, with the market size increasing from 1.5 billion yuan in 2020 to 14.7 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 114% [13][14] - The year 2023 is considered the "元年" (the first year) for generative AI, with a year-on-year growth rate of 110% [13][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The report highlights various business models for AI large models, including API calls, content generation, and Model-as-a-Service (MaaS) [15][27] - The API call model is identified as a primary revenue source, with OpenAI's GPT-4o charging $0.015 per 1,000 tokens, indicating a substantial profit margin [18][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The report notes a decline in the frequency of significant industry events, suggesting a slowdown in the introduction of new large model products [8] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with many companies reducing prices for their AI models, indicating a price war in the market [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Companies are encouraged to focus on sectors such as AI large models, AI hardware, and AI security, with specific recommendations for firms like 拓尔思, 云赛智联, and 奇安信 [14] - The MaaS model is highlighted as a promising avenue for commercializing AI large models, particularly in industries like finance and energy [27][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The management expresses optimism about the commercial success of AI large models, drawing parallels with the early stages of other transformative technologies like the iPhone and 5G [9][34] - The report emphasizes the importance of establishing scalable business models for AI large models to ensure long-term growth [8][9] Other Important Information - The report discusses the potential for AI large models to transform various industries, suggesting that they should not only be viewed as a single investment avenue but as a new productive force in the economy [34][35] - The regulatory environment is also noted, with the requirement for companies to register their generative AI services, which may impact the competitive landscape [36] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the current stage of AI large model commercialization? - The industry is at a critical juncture for validating the success of AI large model commercialization, with expectations for significant indicators of success in the near future [9] Question: Which industries are expected to benefit from the commercialization of large models? - Industries such as finance and energy are identified as having a strong foundation for adopting MaaS and benefiting from AI large models [28]

一周市场总览、组合表现及热点追踪 中国企业加速出海步伐。2024 年 1 至 4 月，我国对外非金融类直接投资 3434.7 亿元人民币，同比 增长 18.7%，其中在"一带一路"协议国家非金融类直接投资 777.7 亿元人民币，同比增长 20.4%。数 据表明越来越多中国企业正加速全球化发展布局，探索新的增长点，中国企业出海正从成本驱动转 向成本、技术双驱动，高质量出海将成今年中企向外探索新趋势。而从存量上看，根据商务部《2022 年度中国对外直接投资统计公报》，截至 2022 年末，我国 2.9 万家境内投资者在国（境）外共设立 对外直接投资企业 4.7 万家，分布在全球 190 个国家（地区），对外直接投资累计净额达到 2.75 万 亿美元，雇佣员工超过 410 万人。区域上北美、东南亚、南美为中国制造业的三大核心布局区域， 制造业企业杨帆率达到 6.50%、6.15%、5.83%，显著高于其他区域。 图表 12. 中国制造业出海企业全球布局情况 资料来源：百炼智能，中银证券；（注：扬帆率=区域出海企业数/出海企业总数） 政策打造"一带一路"下产能合作体系，产能出海已存在成熟机制。2013 年国务院发布 ...

美国新一轮去通胀尚待开启 资料来源：iFinD，中银证券 资料来源：万得，中银证券 图表 11. 螺纹钢价格指数同比与 PPI 工业同比 资料来源：万得，中银证券 ——国定资产投资完成额: 同比 ——日均产量:輕纲:国内:同比 60 % 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 o o （10） (10) (20) (20) (30) (30) (40) re t Ab Pop rop 2016 90 900 p 40 . 2014 Qr Ro 资料来源：万得，中级证券 美国新一轮去通胀尚待开启 资料来源：iFinD，中银证券 资料来源：iFinD，中银证券 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------|-------|-------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | 图表 5. ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In May, the new social financing (社融) increased by CNY 20,648 billion, up CNY 5,088 billion year-on-year, slightly above market expectations[15] - The total social financing stock grew by 8.4% year-on-year, a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month[15] - Government bond issuance accelerated, contributing significantly to the recovery of social financing growth, with an increase of CNY 12,266 billion, up CNY 6,695 billion year-on-year[10] Group 2: Loan and Deposit Trends - New loans in May amounted to CNY 9,500 billion, a decrease of CNY 4,100 billion year-on-year, primarily supported by bill financing[6] - Corporate loans increased by CNY 7,400 billion, down CNY 1,158 billion year-on-year, with a notable decline in medium and long-term loans[6] - Resident loans rose by CNY 757 billion, down CNY 2,915 billion year-on-year, indicating limited consumer confidence in investment and consumption[6] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Economic Indicators - M2 growth in May was 7.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while M1 decreased by 4.2%[4] - The gap between M2 and M1 widened to 11.2%, reflecting weak corporate liquidity and the impact of paused manual interest subsidies[4] - Non-bank deposits saw a significant year-on-year increase of CNY 8,379 billion, while corporate deposits decreased by CNY 8,000 billion[26]

资料来源：iFinD，中银证券 资料来源：iFinD，中银证券。注：本图统计的社融不包括外币贷款。 中国人民银行 2024 年 6 月 14 日发布 2024 年 5 月社会融资数据。初步统计，2024 年前五个月社会 融资规模增量累计为 14.8 万亿元，比上年同期少 2.52 万亿元。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款 增加 10.26 万亿元，同比少增 2.1 万亿元；对实体经济发放的外币贷款折合人民币增加 727 亿元，同 比多增 778 亿元；委托贷款减少 915 亿元，同比多减 1714 亿元；信托贷款增加 2350 亿元，同比多 增 1968 亿元；未贴现的银行承兑汇票减少 318 亿元，同比多减 1863 亿元；企业债券净融资 1.2 万 亿元，同比多 2519 亿元；政府债券净融资 2.49 万亿元，同比少 3497 亿元；非金融企业境内股票融 资 1060 亿元，同比少 2835 亿元。2024 年 5 月末社会融资规模存量为 391.93 万亿元，同比增长 8.4%。 其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额为 245.74 万亿元，同比增长 8.9%。 图表 1. 前 5 个月社融累计增量 ...

考虑上述分组方法或存在行业权重分布不均的影响，我们将 1500 家股息全指样本，参照其自身一级 行业属性，将相同行业成分股按其行业内股息率高低，重新抽样并编组，新组（尽管行业权重不等， 但每组不同一级行业个数相同）最大程度消除了行业权重不均的影响，从结果来看，1）行业个数等 权后的高股息组区间市场表现仍好于低股息组。2）行业个数等权后的新高股息组在两轮调整中，回 撤幅度同样小于低股息组。3）从不同组市值的平均数和中位数来看，不同组的市值大小对收益率有 一定影响，但并不明显，股息率高低对市场表现的影响权重更大。另一方面，本轮市场大小风格切 换源于 2024 年年初，高股息组别长时间轴范围内的超额收益占优也同样发生在此前小市值风格占优 阶段。 资料来源：iFinD，中银证券。注：NewG1-NewG10 表示近三年平均股息率自高至低组别。 2024 年 6 月 14 日 行业配置月报 24 年 6 月 7 图表 6. 高低股息组别，市值平均数或中位数差距不大 2）此外，G1 组（过去三年平均股息率最高的组）其区间涨跌幅较 G2-G10 组实现了断层式领先。 3）G1-G3 组较 G4-G10 组实现了明显超额，即 ...

未有评级：因无法获取必要的资料或者其他原因，未能给出明确的投资评级。 风险提示及免责声明 中银国际证券股份有限公司 中国上海浦东 银城中路 200 号 中银大厦 39 楼 邮编 200121 电话：（8621）68604866 传真：（8621）58883554 中银国际证券有限公司 重点关注 【宏观经济】议息会议及 5 月 CPI 点评—通胀全面降温，联储态度维持谨慎 朱启兵 孙德基 事件：美东时间 6 月 12 日，美联储在货币政策委员会 FOMC 宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区间仍为 5.25%到 5.50%， 这是自 2023 年 7 月加息以来第七次暂停加息。美国 5 月 CPI 同比增长 3.3%，5 月 CPI 环比增长 0%。5 月能源带动 通胀全面降温，运输服务成本下跌带动核心通胀环比下降。点阵图整体上移，通胀预测上调，通胀观察期较短和就业 反弹导致联储表态谨慎。数据及决议公布后，2024 年降息次数预期值维持 1-2 次，9 月首降预期概率来到 65.1%。 点阵图整体上移，通胀预测上调。会议声明方面，新增表述"向 2%的通胀目标取得了温和的进一步进展（there has been modes ...

通信 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年6月14日 强于大市 通信行业周报(0611-0619) 商业航天发展迅速，关注卫星产业链 通信行业相对沪深300指数表现 近期卫星催化较多，国际上，6月6日，SpaceX成功实现星舰火箭助推器的软 着陆；国内，5月24日，上海蓝箭鸿擎科技有限公司向国际电信联盟申请发射 10,000颗卫星。我国商业航天发展迅速，民营火箭迎难而上，2023年国内商 业火箭商发数量、发射份额、发射成功率等都创下历史新高，看好卫星产业 链发展。 本周主题：  6 月 6 日，SpaceX 成功实现星舰火箭助推器的软着陆，标志着太空探索 资料来源：万得，中银证券 的重大进展。星链计划也逐步推进，截止到目前，已有超过6000颗卫星 注：收盘价截止到2024年6月7日 （Starlink Satellites）及10000个激光器（Starlink Space Lasers）正在工作 运行，吸引了近300万名客户加入，为地球提供广泛覆盖的互联网服务。  根据财联社报道，5 月 24 日，上海蓝箭鸿擎科技有限公司（又称鸿擎科 技）向国际电信联盟（ITU）提交了预发信息（API）。该文件概 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a previous rating of "Not Rated" [43]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading marine oil and gas exploration and production enterprise in China, with a strong resource endowment and a notable low-cost advantage, indicating stable and positive performance [45]. - The oil and gas extraction industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity, supported by ongoing demand growth from emerging economies and a stable international oil price outlook [45]. - The company is increasing its capital expenditure to enhance production capacity, with projected net production reaching 700-720 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024 [45]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company primarily engages in the exploration, development, production, and sales of oil and gas, with significant operations in China's offshore regions [42]. - As of the end of 2023, the company's domestic offshore reserves and production accounted for approximately 60% and 69% of its total reserves and production, respectively [42]. Industry Outlook - The report highlights that the international oil price is expected to remain at a mid-to-high level in 2024, with the oil and gas extraction industry continuing to thrive [45]. - Factors such as OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical tensions are reshaping global oil trade dynamics, which may impact supply stability [45]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a net production of approximately 180.1 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [45]. - The average realized price for oil was $78.75 per barrel, up 6.2% year-on-year, contributing to a revenue of 111.468 billion RMB, a 14.1% increase from the previous year [45]. Cost Management - The company's main cost per barrel of oil decreased to $28.83 in 2023, down 5.1% year-on-year, and further reduced to $27.59 in Q1 2024 [45]. - The report emphasizes the importance of controlling depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A) costs and operational expenses to maintain competitive pricing [45]. Transition to Low-Carbon Energy - The company is actively pursuing low-carbon development, with natural gas production increasing and expected to account for 30% of its output by 2025 [45]. - The integration of offshore wind power projects with oil and gas operations is highlighted as a key strategy for sustainable growth [45].