电子 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024年5月21日 强于大市 电子 2023 年和 2024Q1 总结 之晶圆制造和封测 中国大陆晶圆厂稼动率回升显著，有望为封测行 业需求复苏注入信心 晶圆制造行业需求复苏出现分化。台积电2024年月度营业收入同比增速重回 正增长轨道；中芯国际和华虹半导体 2024Q1 稼动率亦呈现环比回升趋势； 联电2024Q1稼动率依然维持在相对低位。随着晶圆制造行业稼动率的回升， 晶圆封测行业需求也有望水涨船高。 支撑评级的要点  先进制程晶圆厂台积电营业收入同比重回正增长轨道，高性能计算构成 营业收入主要支撑。台积电 2024Q1 营业收入约 5926 亿新台币， YoY+17%。台积电2024年4月营业收入约2360亿新台币，YoY+60%。 台积电营业收入同比重回正增长轨道。台积电2024Q1高性能计算营业收 入占比约46%，YoY+2pcts。高性能计算在台积电营业收入占比贡献越来 越高。  成熟制程晶圆厂中芯国际和华虹半导体稼动率修复，联电稼动率依然处 于相对低位。中芯国际 2024Q1 稼动率约 80.8%，QoQ+4.0pcts， YoY+12.7pcts。华 ...

房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024年5月21日 强于大市 房 地产行业重大事件点评 这轮地产政策能刺激多少需求？ 【政策内容】  央行发布三条信贷政策调整措施，调整后首付比例、房贷利率均处于历史低点，进一步降低居民购房的首付门槛及购房 成本。  1）下调首付比例。调整后，首、二套住房首付比例分别下调至不低于15%、 25%，较此前各下调5个百分点。这是本 轮周期中第二次下调首付比例，前一次为2023年8月。在此前的宽松周期中，首、二套房首付比例最低下调至20%、30%， 因此这次调整是我国按揭史上首付比例最宽松的一次，体现了中央对于稳需求的决心。目前大多数城市的首、二套房首 付比例基本已经是20%、30%了，而一线城市首付比例仍然较高，首套均为30%，二套在40-50%。此次央行下调首付比 例下限后，预计更多城市跟进落实，一线城市也有进一步下调的空间。  2）取消全国层面房贷利率政策下限。此前首套、二套房贷利率下限分别为LPR-20BP、LPR+20BP，且新房房价同环比连 续3个月下跌的城市可阶段性取消首套房利率下限。根据央行一季度货币政策执行报告，截至3月末，全国有64个城市 已经取消 ...

Summary of the Real Estate Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **real estate industry** in China, specifically analyzing the **2023 annual report** and **2024 Q1 performance** of major real estate companies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - In 2023, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by nearly **18%**, returning to levels seen in **2016-2017** [1][4]. - The top five (CR5) and top ten (CR10) companies experienced a sales decline of **12%** and **13%**, respectively, indicating that larger firms are better positioned in a declining market [1][4]. - The number of companies with sales exceeding **100 billion** decreased to **16**, down from **20-21** in previous years [1][4]. - **35%** of the top 20 companies reported positive sales growth, with notable increases from companies like **Yuexiu (+14%)** and **Jianfa (+12%)** [1][4]. Land Acquisition - The land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies fell by **6%** in 2023, marking the lowest level since **2017** [1][4]. - The land acquisition intensity increased to **25.8%**, up **3.2 percentage points** year-on-year, indicating a more cautious approach to new projects [1][4]. - The concentration of land acquisition among the top companies rose to **37%**, as smaller firms face financial difficulties [1][4]. Construction and Financing - The construction commencement and completion rates for major firms are expected to decline by **12%** and **19%** in 2024, respectively [1][4]. - The total financing scale for the industry decreased by **15%** in 2023, with a notable decline in bond issuance [1][4]. - The average financing cost for the top companies was **4.4%**, reflecting a decrease in borrowing costs [1][4]. Financial Performance - The overall revenue for the industry declined by **9%** in 2023, with a net profit loss of **136 billion** yuan [1][4]. - The gross profit margin fell to **16.9%**, and the net profit margin was only **0.1%**, indicating significant pressure on profitability [1][4]. - The industry is experiencing a cash flow crisis, with operating cash flow net inflow of **216 billion** yuan, down **8%** year-on-year [1][4]. Debt and Liquidity - The total interest-bearing debt for the industry decreased by **4%** year-on-year, but the cash-to-short-term debt ratio fell below **1.0X**, indicating liquidity concerns [1][4]. - The asset-liability ratio, excluding advance receipts, was **70.2%**, reflecting ongoing financial stress [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The market concentration has been declining for three consecutive years, with the share of private companies in sales dropping to around **40%** [1][4]. - State-owned enterprises and local government enterprises continue to show positive growth in sales, contrasting with the struggles of private firms [1][4]. Additional Important Insights - The report highlights a significant divergence in performance between state-owned and private enterprises, with the former generally faring better in terms of sales and profitability [1][4]. - The cautious outlook for 2024 suggests that real estate companies will maintain a conservative approach to investments until market conditions improve [1][4]. - The ongoing financial pressures and market uncertainties are likely to lead to further consolidation within the industry, favoring larger, more financially stable firms [1][4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the real estate industry in China.

Summary of the Food and Beverage Industry Research Report (May 20, 2024) Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **food and beverage industry**, specifically highlighting the performance of **Gu Yue Long Shan**, a prominent player in the yellow wine sector [2][4]. Key Points Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight decline of **-0.4%** last week, ranking **18th** among all industries [2][9]. - Within the sub-sectors, other alcoholic beverages and pre-processed foods performed well, with increases of **+2.3%** and **+1.5%**, respectively. Conversely, meat products and snacks saw declines of **-2.8%** and **-3.5%** [2][11]. Company Insights: Gu Yue Long Shan - Gu Yue Long Shan is actively enhancing its marketing efforts through campaigns like "Yue Jiu Hang Tian Xia," aimed at boosting brand visibility [2][4]. - Recent events include a tasting event in Shenzhen on **May 17**, attended by nearly **200** guests, including local business leaders and influencers [4][35]. - The company is leveraging its rich historical and cultural background to position itself as a leader in high-end yellow wine, with products frequently featured in significant national events [4][4]. Growth Potential - Yellow wine is anticipated to experience new growth opportunities, with a narrowing revenue growth gap between yellow wine and white wine in **2023** [4][4]. - Gu Yue Long Shan's incentive mechanisms have been improved, and the company has expanded its marketing activities significantly, hosting **490** tasting events across major cities in **2023** and adding **12** new tasting venues [4][4]. - The company has also increased its distributor network by **263** new dealers, filling market gaps in **24** northern cities [4][4]. Financial Metrics - As of **May 17**, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the white wine sector was **24.1X**, while the overall food and beverage sector stood at **24.0X** [2][11]. Risks - The industry faces risks related to **raw material price fluctuations** and potential **food safety incidents** [4][40]. Recommendations - The report recommends a portfolio including **Shanxi Fenjiu**, **Chengde Lulou**, **Luzhou Laojiao**, **Qingdao Beer**, and **Jinshi Yuan** as potential investment opportunities [4][4]. Additional Insights - Recent data indicates that the price of fresh milk is **3.41 CNY/kg**, showing a year-on-year decrease of **12.1%** [3][30]. - The national average price for live pigs is **7.82 CNY/jin**, reflecting a week-on-week increase of **2.6%** and a year-on-year increase of **8.0%** [3][30]. - The report also notes the importance of foreign investment in key companies, with foreign holdings in **Moutai**, **Wuliangye**, and **Luzhou Laojiao** at **7.34%**, **5.55%**, and **3.03%**, respectively [19][21]. This comprehensive overview highlights the current state and future potential of the food and beverage industry, particularly focusing on the yellow wine segment and the strategic initiatives of Gu Yue Long Shan.

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024年5月21日 强于大市 社服与消费视角点评 4 月国 内宏观数据 社零消费数据高基数背景下延续稳健增长 国家统计局等部门公布了部分 2024 年 4 月国内宏观数据。其中，4 月社零 总额同比增长 2.3%；4月餐饮收入同比增长 4.4%，增速环比回落。4月服 务业 PMI 为 50.3%。四月多类数据在高基数背景下增速有所回落，但保持 稳健增长，我们维持行业强于大市评级。 支撑评级的要点  社零延续增长，增速环比放缓。4月社零总额为35699亿元，yoy+2.3%， 1-4月社零规模累计超 15万亿元，yoy+4.1%。1-4月份，服务零售额同 比增长8.4%，快于商品零售额4.9pct。4月餐饮收入3915亿元，yoy+4.4%， 1-4 月餐饮收入累计达 17360 亿元，yoy+9.3%，受去年同期高基数因素 影响，4月增速有所放缓，但仍维持稳健增势。  服务业持续恢复，消费者信心仍有待提振。4 月全国服务业生产指数同 比增长3.5%，1-4月，该指数同比增长5.0%。4月服务业PMI为50.3%， 较3月的52.40%有所下滑，但仍处于扩张区间， ...

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年5月20日 强于大市 社会服务行业双周报 旅游业高质量发展行稳致远，社零稳步增长 前两交易周（2024.05.06-2023.05.17）社会服务板块上涨 0.21%，在申万一 级31个行业排名中位列第25。社会服务板块跑输沪深 300指数1.83pct。国 家统计局公布部分 4月国内宏观数据，整体延续稳步增长态势，我们维持行 业强于大市评级。 市场回顾  前两交易周社会服务板块上涨 0.21%，社会服务子板块及旅游零售板块 中 3 个上涨，涨跌幅由高到低分别为：旅游零售（+2.12%）、专业服务 （+1.17%）、酒店餐饮（+0.28%）、旅游及景区（-0.39%）、教育（- 1.86%）。  北上资金方面，前两交易周北上资金增持首旅酒店 0.20pct至 1.41%，增 持中青旅 0.04pct 至 0.42%，减持中国中免 0.37pct 至 4.73%，增持宋城 演艺0.11pct至1.78%，减持锦江酒店0.04pct至2.44%的持股比例。 行业动态数据  据Datayes， 5.06-5.12新增招聘公司数量和帖数环比+77.31%/+9 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a market price of USD 5.26 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1][2]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in membership revenue due to a high base effect from the previous year, but maintained high operational efficiency, achieving the best quarterly operating profit [2]. - The company is expected to focus on maximizing long-term membership revenue rather than just increasing membership numbers, with new growth opportunities anticipated from overseas business, IP derivative payments, and AIGC [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company's operating revenue was CNY 79.27 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [2]. - Non-GAAP operating profit reached CNY 10.86 billion, with an operating profit margin of 14%, marking the best quarterly performance [2][4]. - GAAP net profit was CNY 6.55 billion, up 6% year-on-year and 41% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Membership revenue for Q1 2024 was CNY 47.99 billion, down 13% year-on-year but stable quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. - Advertising revenue was CNY 14.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10% [2]. - Content distribution revenue surged to CNY 9.28 billion, up 27% year-on-year and 83% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to increased important copyright sales [2][4]. Valuation and Future Projections - The company is projected to continue building a stable production system with a focus on profit and cash flow performance [2]. - Expected non-GAAP net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are CNY 40.0 billion, CNY 45.8 billion, and CNY 51.5 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 4.09, CNY 4.64, and CNY 5.21 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 8.84 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.257 billion in 2023, a decrease of 15.28% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 27 million, down 82.99% year-on-year. However, in Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 909 million, an increase of 30.88% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 14 million, up 149.78% year-on-year. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the notebook industry driven by AI PC demand and is actively expanding into telecommunications electronics and new energy vehicles, which opens up growth opportunities [4][15]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company faced pressure from declining demand in the notebook computer industry, leading to a revenue drop to RMB 3.257 billion and a net profit of RMB 27 million. The revenue from structural components was RMB 2.789 billion, down 12.84%, while telecommunications electronics revenue was RMB 257 million, down 23.58% [4][5]. - The company's gross margin for 2023 was 15.28%, a decrease of 1.67 percentage points, and the net margin was -0.06%, down 3.55 percentage points [4][5]. Market Outlook - The notebook industry is expected to recover due to the upcoming replacement cycle and the introduction of AI PC products, with global notebook shipments in Q1 2024 reaching 46.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7% [4]. - The company anticipates a recovery in performance, projecting revenues of RMB 3.965 billion, RMB 4.880 billion, and RMB 5.625 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits expected to be RMB 157 million, RMB 265 million, and RMB 377 million [4][7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is leveraging opportunities in the new energy vehicle sector, focusing on lightweight, intelligent, and fashionable automotive electronics, which aligns with industry trends. The successful development of semi-solid injection molding technology positions the company to enter mass production of automotive electronic components [4][15]. Valuation - The report adjusts the earnings forecast for the company, estimating an EPS of RMB 0.36, RMB 0.60, and RMB 0.86 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 24.8, 14.7, and 10.3 for the respective years [4][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][43]. Core Views - Guyue Longshan is actively conducting marketing activities to enhance brand awareness, with the "Yue Wine Goes Global" campaign expected to boost its growth potential [2][4]. - The yellow wine sector is anticipated to experience new development opportunities, with Guyue Longshan showing significant growth potential due to its strong historical and cultural foundation [4]. Market Review - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.4% last week, ranking in the middle among various industries. Other alcoholic beverages and pre-processed foods performed well, with increases of 2.3% and 1.5% respectively, while meat products and snacks saw declines of 2.8% and 3.5% [2][9]. - As of May 17, the valuation of the liquor sector (PE-TTM) was 24.1X, while the food and beverage sector was at 24.0X [2][11]. Industry Data - The price of fresh milk as of May 17 was 3.41 CNY/kg, showing no change week-on-week but a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%. The national price for live pigs was 7.82 CNY/jin, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.6% and a year-on-year increase of 8.0% [3][30]. - The price of various duck products as of May 17 was recorded at 9.9 CNY/kg for duck necks, 8.2 CNY/kg for duck locks, and 24.8 CNY/kg for duck feet [30]. Key Insights - Guyue Longshan's marketing efforts, including high-end product promotions and tasting events, are expected to yield positive results over time [4]. - The yellow wine market is projected to grow as consumer preferences evolve, with Guyue Longshan's improved incentive mechanisms and marketing strategies contributing to its long-term growth potential [4]. - The company has successfully expanded its market presence, adding 263 new distributors and establishing 12 new tasting venues across key cities in 2023 [4]. Recommended Portfolio - The recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Chengde Lulou, Luzhou Laojiao, Qingdao Beer, and Jiusiyuan [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy industry [1][2][3] Core Insights - The electric power equipment and new energy industry experienced revenue growth in 2023, with total revenue reaching CNY 51,208.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.23%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.41% to CNY 3,755.63 billion [1][2][3] - The industry is expected to maintain high demand in 2024, with signs of a potential profit turning point as capacity gradually clears [1][2][3] - The first quarter of 2024 showed continued profit pressure, with net profit down 45.53% year-on-year to CNY 602.94 billion [3][4] Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - In 2023, the electric power equipment and new energy industry saw total revenue of CNY 51,208.14 billion, up 10.23% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 15.41% to CNY 3,755.63 billion [2][4] - The average gross margin for the industry was 21.36%, down 0.86 percentage points, and the net margin was 8.58%, down 2.13 percentage points [2][4] New Energy Vehicles - The new energy vehicle sector generated revenue of CNY 20,286.42 billion, a 9.80% increase, but net profit dropped by 33.71% to CNY 1,358.89 billion [2][4] - The average gross margin for this sector was 20.55%, down 2.33 percentage points, and the net margin was 7.99%, down 4.19 percentage points [2][4] Renewable Energy Generation - The renewable energy generation sector achieved revenue of CNY 26,940.73 billion, a 9.68% increase, with net profit of CNY 2,069.24 billion, down 1.18% [2][4] - The average gross margin was 21.18%, up 0.07 percentage points, while the net margin was 8.97%, down 0.79 percentage points [2][4] Power Equipment - The power equipment sector reported revenue of CNY 3,981.00 billion, a 16.44% increase, and net profit of CNY 327.50 billion, up 10.55% [2][4] - The average gross margin was 26.68%, up 0.12 percentage points, and the net margin was 8.94%, down 0.57 percentage points [2][4] Cash Flow - The overall operating cash flow for the industry was CNY 8,305.61 billion, a 14.93% increase year-on-year [2][4] - The new energy vehicle sector had a cash inflow of CNY 3,807.48 billion, up 35.60%, while the renewable energy generation sector saw a slight decline in cash inflow [2][4] 2024 Outlook - In the first quarter of 2024, the industry faced continued profit pressure, with total revenue of CNY 10,381.64 billion, down 8.14% year-on-year, and net profit of CNY 602.94 billion, down 45.53% [3][4] - The new energy vehicle sector's revenue was CNY 4,001.96 billion, down 12.87%, while the renewable energy generation sector's revenue was CNY 5,531.93 billion, down 6.67% [3][4]