证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 16 日 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 专 题 研 究 轻工制造 浅析海运费对出口盈利影响 ➢ 2024 年初至今海运费大幅提涨 近期马士基和地中海等头部船运公司宣布 7 月 1 日起调涨亚洲主要港口出 口运价，亚欧 FAK 费率最高已达 9800 美元/FEU，海运重现 2024 年初和 2021 年情景，但此次上涨原因略有不同：1）2023 年底红海事件影响持续，船运 公司被迫绕行好望角，产生运价连锁反应；2）美国、欧盟等地关税预期迫 使商家争夺集装箱以提前出货，需求增大、运力紧张导致海运费居高不下； 在此背景下，市场对出口后续持续性以及相关企业短期利润影响较为关注。 ➢ 本轮海运费对出口品类影响几何 我们根据 SCFI 指数对欧美航线运费涨幅进行测算，并对比 2023 年家居家 电产品的海运费/货值比率，在一半货物签订长协价基础上，功能沙发、智 能床、办公椅、升降桌、冰箱、洗衣机、空调海运费/货值水平分别约为 9.29%/11.59%/10.07%/9.87%/6.42%/5.33%/3.50%。此外，我们通过敏感性 分析测算在 2023 年基础上，海运费上涨程度对各品 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The Thai new energy vehicle market is experiencing rapid growth, with significant contributions from Chinese brands, particularly BYD, which is gaining market share against Japanese competitors [5][4] - The local production capacity of Chinese automakers in Thailand is expected to enhance their market responsiveness and cost advantages, further increasing their market share [3][4] - The Thai government has implemented policies to encourage local production of electric vehicles, which will likely accelerate the localization process for electric passenger cars [21][23] Summary by Sections 1. Thai New Energy Vehicle Sales Growth - In 2023, Thailand's new energy vehicle sales reached 88,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 311.8%, with a penetration rate of 10.4%, up 8.0 percentage points [2][10] - For the first five months of 2024, sales were 35,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, with a penetration rate of 11.3%, up 3.8 percentage points [2][10] 2. Domestic Automakers Leading the Thai New Energy Market - From January to May 2024, exports of passenger cars from China to Thailand reached 57,000 units, with pure electric vehicles accounting for approximately 94% [3][24] - The Thai EV3.5 policy mandates local production of electric vehicles based on imported quantities, which is expected to boost local manufacturing by Chinese brands [3][21] 3. BYD's Strong Performance in the Thai Market - BYD's electric models, such as Yuan PLUS, Dolphin, and Seal, are achieving rapid sales growth, with competitive advantages in size, power, and torque [5][19] - The cost of energy for BYD's fourth-generation DM models is lower than local hybrid models, enhancing their market competitiveness [5][19] 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading Chinese brands actively establishing local production capacities, such as BYD, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motors, and SAIC Motor [5][24]

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 16 日 行 业: 建筑装饰/房屋建设Ⅱ 投资评级: 买入(维持) 当前价格: 5.40 元 基本数据 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|---------------------| | 总股本/流通股本(百万股) | 41,619.95/41,320.39 | | 流通 A 股市值(百万元) | 223,130.11 | | 每股净资产(元) | 10.42 | 资产负债率(%) 74.76 一年内最高/最低(元) 6.25/4.54 股价相对走势 中国建筑 沪深300 -20% -10% 0% 10% 2023/7 2023/11 2024/3 2024/7 作者 | --- | |-----------------------------| | 分析师:武慧东 | | 执业证书编号:S0590523080005 | | wuhd@glsc.com.cn | | 分析师:朱思敏 | | 执业证书编号:S0590524050002 | | zhusm@glsc.com.cn | 相关报告 1、《中国建筑(601668):2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, with estimates ranging from 726 million to 772 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.92% to 47.70% [2][3] - The anticipated revenue for the first half of 2024 is between 4.2 billion and 4.46 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 67% to 77% [3] - The 0BB technology is expected to enhance performance significantly, with the potential for large-scale adoption by 2025, benefiting the company as a leading manufacturer of string welding machines [4] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts a revenue of 4.33 billion yuan for H1 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 72% [3] - The net profit for Q2 2024 is projected to be between 390 million and 440 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 30% to 46% [3] - The company maintains a strong market position in the photovoltaic sector, with over 70% market share in string welding machines [5] Long-term Outlook - The company is well-positioned in the photovoltaic, lithium battery, and semiconductor sectors, with a diversified product portfolio and strong customer relationships [5] - The projected net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 1.93 billion, 2.50 billion, and 3.07 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 6, 5, and 4 [6]

2024 年 07 月 16 日 行 业： 投资评级： 股价相对走势 -30% -13% 3% 20% 2023/7 2023/11 2024/3 2024/7 台华新材 沪深300 分析师：许隽逸 执业证书编号：S0590524060003 邮箱：xujy@glsc.com.cn 分析师：申起昊 执业证书编号：S0590524070002 邮箱：shenqh@glsc.com.cn 业绩再超预期，成长持续兑现 ➢ 规模、品牌效应持续显现，业绩再超预期 ➢ 锦纶行业景气持续向上，开工大幅提升 ➢ 差异化发展战略持续打开成长空间 项目投产在即，持续打开公司成长空间。 我们上调公司 2024-26 年收入预测分别至 70/84/106 亿元，对应增速分别 为 38%/20%/26%，归母净利润分别为 8.6/10.4/13.3 亿元，对应增速分别为 90%/22%/28%，EPS 分别为 0.96/1.17/1.49 元/股，3 年 CAGR 为 44%，公司 目前市值对应 2024 年 PE 为 12 倍。鉴于公司再生尼龙及尼龙 66 业务具有 较强的成长性，我们维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：在建项目推进不及预 ...

科达利(002850) 证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 17 日 公 司 报 告│ 公 司 点 评 研 究 事件: 盈利逆势增长,出海与新业务开启成长空间 公司发布 2024 年半年度业绩预增公告,预计 2024 年上半年公司实现归母 净利润 6.1-6.8 亿元,同比+19.90%至+33.65%;预计实现扣非净利润 5.9- 6.6 亿元,同比+18.96%至+33.07%。预计 2024Q2 实现归母净利润 3.01-3.71 亿元,同比+12.80%至+39.00%,环比-2.33%至+20.35%;实现扣非净利润 2.95-3.65 亿元,同比+11.84%至+38.39%,环比-0.14%至 23.58%。 ➢ Q2 业绩同比保持增长,盈利逆势上行。 在行业降价阶段,我们认为公司 2024 年整体盈利逆势提升的原因为:1) 公司控费管理逐步见效:2019 年至 2024Q1 公司整体费用率呈下降趋势, 与同业公司相比处于地位,我们预计 2024Q2 费用率维持在 8-10%的低位。 2)公司降本策略见效,公司通过与上游签订独家供应协议、动态筛选淘汰 等策略降低原材料成本,同时提升产品良率、优 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, focusing on Chinese brands actively establishing local production capacity in Thailand [4]. Core Insights - The Thai new energy vehicle (NEV) market is experiencing significant growth, with Chinese brands leading the charge, particularly BYD, which has a notable competitive advantage in product offerings [1][4]. - Despite a general decline in overall vehicle sales in Thailand, NEV sales surged by 311.8% year-on-year in 2023, driven by increased exports from Chinese manufacturers [1][9]. - The Thai government has implemented policies to encourage local production of electric vehicles, which is expected to further boost the market [2][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Thai NEV Sales Growth and Local Production Policies - Thailand's overall vehicle sales were approximately 1 million units pre-pandemic, recovering to 887,000 units in 2022, but declining to 841,000 units in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1% [1][9]. - NEV sales reached 88,000 units in 2023, with a penetration rate of 10.4%, marking an increase of 311.8% year-on-year [1][9]. - The Thai government has introduced the EV3.5 policy, mandating local production of electric vehicles based on import ratios, which is expected to enhance local manufacturing capabilities [2][27]. 2. Chinese Brands Gaining Market Share from Japanese Competitors - Japanese brands held a market share of 76.4% in early 2024, down 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, while Chinese brands increased their share to 11.2%, up 3.5 percentage points [3]. - The establishment of local production facilities by Chinese manufacturers is anticipated to further increase their market share in Thailand [3][30]. 3. BYD's Strong Performance in the Thai Market - BYD's electric models, including the Yuan PLUS, Dolphin, and Seal, have seen rapid sales growth, with competitive advantages in specifications compared to rivals [4]. - The cost of energy replenishment for BYD's fourth-generation DM models is lower than that of local hybrid and gasoline models, enhancing their market appeal [4]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading Chinese brands that are actively expanding their local production capacity, such as BYD, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motors, and SAIC Motor [4].

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 16 日 电网代购电月报(2024 年 7 月) 15 地区代购电价上涨,12 地区开启夏季尖峰时段 17 地区电度用电价格较上月有所上涨 从不满 1kV 用户平时段电度用电总价格环比涨跌幅来看,与 2024 年 6 月相 比,17 地区上涨,1 地区不变,14 地区下跌,其中涨幅较高的为新疆 (+8.77%)、蒙东(+6.48%),跌幅较大的为河北(-12.96%)、青海(-7.13%)。 从同比涨跌幅来看,与 2023 年 7 月相比,12 地区上涨,20 地区下跌,其 中涨幅较高的为蒙西(+9.12%),辽宁(+8.29%),跌幅较大的为福建(- 18.38%),江西(-14.53%)。 15 地区代理购电价格较上月有所上涨 从代理购电价格来看,同 2024 年 6 月相比,15 地区价格上涨,3 地区价格 不变,14 地区价格下跌;从环比涨跌幅来看,大多数地区代理购电价格涨 跌幅在 10%以内,涨跌幅超过 10%的地区为新疆(+14.44%)、青海(-12.27%)、 云南(-13.86%)、广西(-16.64%)。 多数地区系统运行费用占比 6%以内(含容量电价 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 15 日 基础化工 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 专 题 研 究 轮胎加速出海,设备迎风而上 轮胎加速"出海",在建产能超亿条 在高通胀和高利率环境下,质优价廉的中国轮胎愈发受欧美消费者青睐, 中国轮胎正以性价比开启"全球替代"。中国头部胎企陆续计划将产能从东 南亚拓展至北美、欧洲、非洲等地,进入全球化扩张阶段,使胎企进一步 增强抵御贸易壁垒等外部风险的能力,也更有助于把握欧美两大轮胎消费 市场。据我们不完全统计,未来 2-3 年中国轮胎海外在建/规划产能超亿 条,旺盛的扩产需求有望带动大量的设备需求,轮胎设备发展机遇已至。 轮胎设备迎来景气周期 2021 年以来轮胎加快海外扩建速度,直接带动大量新增设备需求,从海外 橡胶机械龙头 VMI 母公司 TKH Group 的订单情况来看,订单金额由 2020 年 的 428.3 百万欧元增长至 2023 年的 970 百万欧元,主要由亚洲客户和一级 轮胎制造商贡献。2020-2024Q1,国内主要轮胎设备公司合同负债合计由 17.5 亿元增长至 53.3 亿元,存货由 28.2 亿元增长至 85.5 亿元,或侧面 印证新增订单需求 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Insights - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, with a forecasted range of 850-1050 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 142.15%-199.12% [2] - The second quarter of 2024 is projected to show an even more substantial increase in net profit, with estimates between 572-772 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 311.51%-455.40% [2] - The report highlights improvements in the company's three main business segments, particularly in overseas sales and the "信创" (Xinchuang) market, which saw a year-on-year growth of approximately 30% in shipment volume [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 262.56 billion yuan in 2024, with growth rates of 9.12%, 11.66%, and 12.87% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6] - The expected net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 11.29 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 118.26% [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.80 yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.56 yuan by 2026 [6] Business Segment Analysis - The "奔图" (Bentu) segment is expected to generate approximately 2.1 billion yuan in revenue for the first half of 2024, with a net profit of around 400 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of about 40% [3] - The "利盟" (Lexmark) segment is projected to achieve revenues of approximately 1.08 billion USD in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of about 5% [4] - The "极海微" (Jihaiwei) segment is expected to see a net profit of around 300 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of over 100% [5]