证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 15 日 商贸零售 行 业 报 告│ 行 业 点 评 研 究 6 月社零同比+2.0%,低于市场预期 , ➢ 行业事件: 国家统计局发布社零数据,6 月份,社零总额为 4.07 万亿元,同比增长 2.0%。 其中,除汽车以外的消费品零售额为 3.64 万亿元,同比增长 3.0%;限额以 上单位消费品零售额 1.70 万亿元,同比下降 0.6%。 ➢ 6 月社零同比+2.0%,同比增速放缓 2024 年 6 月,社零总额同比+2.0%,低于市场预期的+3.99%。同比增速较 5 月下降 1.7pct,是 2023 年 2 月以来的最低值。3 年 CAGR 为 2.7%,增速 环比下滑 0.2pct。从季调后环比看,6 月社零总额环比-0.12%,低于 5 月 0.35pct,为 2023 年 8 月以来首次转负。按消费类型分,6 月商品零售同比 +1.5%(增速环比-2.1pct),3 年 CAGR 为+2.4%(增速环比-0.5pct);餐饮 收入同比+5.4%(增速环比+0.4pct),3 年 CAGR 为+5.5%(增速环比+1.7pct), 餐饮类消费表现好于商品类 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 15 日 中国财险(02328) 车险增速环比回落,非车险增速环比改善 事件:公司发布 2024 年 6 月保费收入公告,6 月当月公司实现保费收入 628.75 亿元,同比+6.1%,其中车险同比+1.8%、非车险同比+9.2%。 ➢ 6 月车险保费同比+1.8%,增速环比有所回落,主因新车销量降幅扩大 6 月公司实现车险保费收入 254.29 亿元,同比+1.8%。公司的车险保费增 速环比回落(5 月为+4.4%),主要系新车销量降幅扩大。6 月我国狭义乘用 车零售销量同比-6.7%(5 月为-1.8%)。但全年来看,随着"以旧换新"政 策的效果逐步显现,新车销量仍有望实现较好增长,从而能带动公司车险 保费实现正增。对于车险 COR,2024Q2 公司的车险 COR 预计将保持在较好 水平。2024Q2 以来,得益于公司积极践行"保险+风险减量服务+科技"新 商业模式,自然灾害对公司车险赔付率的影响可控。公司的车险赔付率预 计将处于较好水平。同时车险执行"报行合一"也有望推动车险费用率同 比改善。从全年维度来看,随着公司持续升级风险减量服务水平、优化车 险业务结构,公 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 18 日 建筑材料及新材料 2024Q2 业绩预告点评:符合预期,需求支撑偏弱 水泥:2024H1 需求延续弱势,代表企业收入盈利降幅较大 天山股份、塔牌集团、上峰水泥、冀东水泥、宁夏新材发布业绩预告,2024H1 归母净利润分别同比转亏、减少 55%-50%、减少 70%-66%、减少 136%-101%、 减少 70%-60%。2024H1 全国水泥产量 8.5 亿吨,yoy-10%,2024H1 需求延续 弱势,全国水泥吨均价和吨毛利呈现同比双减态势。但同时注意到多区域 近期价格有企稳信号,企业间错峰生产力度加大,呈"淡季不淡"态势,关 注近期价格上涨持续性及潜在政策支持。 光伏玻璃:2024H1 供需矛盾有所加大,龙头企业盈利韧性更优 信义光能、凯盛新能发布业绩预告。信义光能 2024H1 归母净利率润预计同 比增长 35%-45%,主要系 2023 年新增产能持续爬坡,销量同比大幅增长。 凯盛新能 2024H1 归母净利润同比转亏,主要系光伏玻璃价格同比降幅较 大,拖累盈利,同时预计政府补贴贡献同比有所减少。2024H1 光伏玻璃供 需矛盾有所加大,价格低位徘徊 ...

Economic Performance - In Q2, China's GDP growth slowed to 4.7%, down from 5.3% in the previous quarter, and below the consensus forecast of 5.1%[93] - The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth was only 0.7%, significantly lower than the previous quarter's 1.5% and below the potential growth rate of 1.2%-1.3%[107][108] - The negative output gap has widened again, primarily due to a slowdown in the tertiary sector, which is the main drag on GDP growth[107][111] Consumer Behavior - In June, retail sales showed a slight decline of 0.3% month-on-month, compared to a previous increase of 0.7%[59][88] - Consumer spending on essential goods continued to rise, while discretionary spending, particularly on daily goods and real estate-related items, saw a significant drop[31][100] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment rebounded in June, with a month-on-month increase of 1.5%, up from 0.5% in May, driven by a notable rise in manufacturing investment (+5.3%) and infrastructure investment (+17.6%)[48][66][123] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a month-on-month drop of 2.8% in June, reflecting high inventory levels among households and real estate companies[125] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, consistent with the previous month, indicating a steady employment situation in major cities[73][130] Future Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations, the overall view remains that a new economic cycle in China is likely to support moderate recovery in the future[78][132]

全球地绿政治出现重大变化，导致全球市场风险偏好急剧变化。 美联储加息超预期变化。 市场流动性超预期变化。 国内经济复苏不及预期。 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 20 分析师声明 17 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 投资策略│策略点评 图表35：科技相对周期短期热度维持均衡水平 必选VS周期历史分布 可选VS周期历史分布 5/31 6/7 6/14 6/21 6/28 7/5 7/12 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% （ 可 选 消 费- 周 期 ）GLSC 扩 散 指 数 GLSC全A扩散指数 From 2010 可选相对周期更热 整体市场趋热 当前可选消费相对周期的 热度处于历史均衡水平 市场极冷：可选与周期热度趋于平衡 市场极热：可选与周期相对独立 5/31 6/7 6/14 6/21 6/28 7/5 7/12 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% （ 必 选 消 费- 周 期 ...

8 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 6 月以美元计价的出口规模在季节性调整后基本保持平稳（环比-0.4%，前值 +1.8%）。尽管航运价格的上涨与部分"抢出口"需求的结束，影响了一些品类在 6 月 的出口，但我们认为外需的景气可能对冲了这一部分的影响，使得 6 月出口整体保 持了较为平稳的状态。 但与此同时，一些供给端的因素对 6 月的出口构成了限制。 6 月的情况也验证了，尽管对巴西的汽车"抢出口"已经结束，且航运价格还抑 制了一些货值较低的轻工产品的出口，但在外需保持景气和补库存需求的支撑下，6 月出口仍表现出了较强的韧性。 复苏。 2024 年 07 月 14 日 作者 6 月中国出口同比增速为 8.6%（美元计价），较 5 月（7.6%）进一步回升， 部分原因是去年基数偏低。季节性调整以后，6 月以美元计价的出口金额环 比下降 0.4%（前值+1.8%），出口规模总体保持平稳。 6 月进口有所回落 风险提示：海外经济与预期不一致，政策与预期不一致 核心观点： 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1、《制造业产出或保持平稳：——对 6 月 PMI 和 高频数据的思考及未来经济展望》2024.07.02 2、《美 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 2.56 RMB [7] Core Views - The company focuses on aircraft and container leasing, with 80% of its revenue coming from aircraft leasing and nearly 20% from container leasing in 2023 [4] - The company has a leading position in the global leasing market, with 458 aircraft orders, ranking first in the industry [4] - The company's financial performance is expected to improve due to the widening of leasing net interest margins, driven by rising aircraft rents and potential Fed rate cuts [4] Company Overview - The company has transitioned from an industrial leasing company to a global leasing giant through acquisitions of high-quality overseas leasing assets such as Seaco, Cronos, Avolon, and CIT [4] - The company's actual controller changed from the Hainan Cihang Foundation to no actual controller after the restructuring of HNA Group in 2022 [4] - The company's revenue structure is dominated by aircraft leasing, which accounted for 80% of total revenue in 2023, while container leasing contributed nearly 20% [4] Aircraft Leasing - The global aircraft leasing market has seen significant growth, with the fleet size expanding from 2,850 in 1980 to 23,561 in 2023, and the leasing penetration rate increasing from 2.4% to 51.3% [4] - The company's subsidiary, Avolon, has a fleet value of $20.82 billion and a fleet size of 576 aircraft, ranking 4th and 3rd globally, respectively [4] - The company has 458 aircraft orders, the highest in the industry, and is expected to benefit from the ongoing supply-demand imbalance in the aircraft market [4] Container Leasing - The global container leasing market is highly concentrated, with the top five companies holding 84.8% of the market share [4] - The company is the third-largest container leasing company globally, with a fleet size of 4.087 million CEU and over 750 customers [4] - The company's container leasing business is expected to benefit from the cyclical recovery in the shipping industry [4] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.78% from 2024 to 2026, with net profit growing at a CAGR of 18.53% over the same period [5] - The company's PB ratio is currently 0.53x, lower than the industry average of 0.85x, indicating potential for valuation upside [5] - The company's net interest margin is expected to widen due to rising aircraft rents and potential Fed rate cuts, which will improve its financial performance [4] Industry Outlook - The global aircraft leasing market is expected to continue growing, driven by increasing demand for new aircraft and the replacement of aging fleets [4] - The container leasing market is also expected to grow, with the penetration rate projected to increase from 48.5% in 2023 to 52.6% by 2027 [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from these industry trends due to its strong market position and extensive global network [4]

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 18 日 家用电器 2024 年中报前瞻:探寻确定性增长 ➢ 白电:内销降速,出口高增,盈利平稳向好 4-5 月空、冰、洗内销分别同比+6%/+5%/+9%,空调降速,冰洗增速平稳。 4-5 月空、冰、洗外销分别同比+36%/+19%/+14%,空调提速明显,冰洗增速 随基数走高略有放缓,但依旧较快,且较超预期。综合看,预计白电 Q2 收 入环比或略有放缓,但能保持稳健增长。期内虽铜铝价格及海运费上行, 但考虑到产品结构优化及降本增效,预计板块净利润率延续稳中有升趋势。 ➢ 黑电:外销表现较好,产品升级趋势突出 彩电 Q2 内销量相对平淡,外销则在欧洲杯赛事带动下高增,其中欧洲、拉 美表现突出,与此同时体育营销有望推动海内外产品升级,行业均价提升 幅度可观。成本方面,TV 面板价格 Q2 延续上涨,但随着基数提升,预计进 入 7 月成本同比涨幅将明显收窄。企业层面,以海信视像为代表的中国彩 电龙头全球维度产品升级、份额提升红利显著,其业绩改善趋势值得期待。 ➢ 后周期:竣工压力传导,集成灶压力尤甚 年初以来地产竣工端压力较大,虽然更新需求释放有一定支撑,但品类间 分化明显 ...

证券研究报告 2024 年 07 月 17 日 股价相对走势 洛阳钼业 沪深300 -20% 10% 40% 70% 2023/7 2023/11 2024/3 2024/7 行 业: 有色金属/小金属 投资评级: 买入(维持) 当前价格: 9.17 元 洛阳钼业(603993) 铜、钴产量高增,业绩弹性兑现 事件: 基本数据 作者 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 21,599.24/21,599.24 流通 A 股市值(百万元) 161,995.13 每股净资产(元) 2.82 资产负债率(%) 57.95 一年内最高/最低(元) 9.87/4.61 | --- | |-----------------------------| | 执业证书编号:S0590523090001 | | 邮箱:dingsht@glsc.com.cn | | 分析师:刘依然 | | 执业证书编号:S0590523110010 | | 邮箱:liuyr@glsc.com.cn | | 分析师:周志璐 | | 执业证书编号:S0590524060001 | | 邮箱:zhouzhl@glsc.com.cn | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2024, with estimates ranging from 8.10 to 9.50 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 180.89% to 229.44% [1]. - The demand for high-speed optical modules is anticipated to continue growing, driven by ongoing technological upgrades and capacity expansion [4]. - The company has successfully launched the latest 800G/1.6T optical module products, indicating strong R&D progress [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 15.30 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 122.23% [4]. - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 61.71 billion yuan, 92.34 billion yuan, and 138.21 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 99.23%, 49.62%, and 49.68% [4][5]. Product Development - The company is expanding its production capacity by issuing convertible bonds to fund new high-speed optical module projects in Chengdu and Thailand, which will add annual production capacities of 1.85 million and 1.10 million units, respectively [3]. - The product lineup includes advanced technologies such as VCSEL/EML, silicon photonics, and thin-film lithium niobate solutions [3]. Market Trends - The introduction of NVIDIA's Spectrum X800 switch, capable of supporting 800G optical modules, is expected to accelerate the evolution of optical modules towards 1.6T [2]. - The continuous upgrade of switching technology is likely to drive demand for higher-capacity optical modules [2].