证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|国防军工 如何看待中国船舶和中国重工的重组合 并 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月22日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 9 月 18 日中国船舶和中国重工披露了《中国船舶换股吸收合并中国重工股份暨关联交易预 案》，9 月 19 日两公司股票复牌。根据公告，此次合并将以中国船舶吸收中国重工的方式进 行，具体换股比例为 1:0.1335，每 1 股中国重工可以换取 0.1335 股中国船舶股票。中国船舶 与中国重工的换股价格分别确定为 37.84 元/股和 5.05 元/股。中国船舶异议股东收购请求权 价格 30.27 元/股，中国重工异议股东现金选择权价格 4.04 元/股。 |分析师及联系人 吴爽 SAC：S0590523110001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月22日 国防军工 如何看待中国船舶和中国重工的重组合并 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -30% -17% -3% 10% 2023/9 2024/1 2024 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|证券Ⅱ 券商服务实体经济力度进一步加大，优 质券商资本约束有望适度放松 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月22日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 本次《规定》较 2023 年 11 月证监会发布的征求意见稿，在 4 个核心风控指标风险覆盖率、 资本杠杆率、流动性覆盖率、净稳定资金率的分子分母细分项目和计算标准方面，根据行业发 展需要进行了局部调整。风控指标体系修订有望在一定程度上适度放松对头部券商资本约束， 进一步提升头部券商用表水平。 |分析师及联系人 SAC：S0590522100001 刘雨辰 耿张逸 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 行业研究|行业点评研究 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

中国汽车出海：挑战与机遇并存 国联证券汽车研究团队 2024年9月21日 证券研究报告 报告评级：强于大市丨维持 1 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 第一部分 中国汽车出口欧洲及英国现状 英国市场特点及中国品牌表现 第二部分 第三部分 英国汽车市场面临的挑战 第四部分 补齐短板，中国品牌竞争力有望增强 第五部分 风险提示 目 录 2 下 1、中国汽车出口欧洲及英国现状 3 中国汽车出口三阶段回顾 ◥ 阶段1：2001-2006年，汽车出口从2万辆增长至164万辆，2001-2006年CAGR为131%。中国车企开始陆续出口中东以及非洲地区，性价比优势带动出口量快速提 升，但海外售后服务体系的建设较为落后，出口量继而下滑； ◥ 阶段2：2007-2019年，汽车出口从61万辆增长至122万辆，2007-2019年CAGR为6%。金融危机对全球汽车消费的负面影响逐渐消弭，2009年后国内汽车出口量快 速恢复，后续出口量有所波动，但整体维持在100万辆左右，受海外发达地区排放标准的影响，对欧洲、北美的出口量较少，产品主要销往东南亚、拉美、中 东、非洲等地区； ◥ 阶段3：2020年至今，汽车出口从108万辆增长至52 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 173.41 billion, 192.44 billion, and 211.80 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.18%, 10.98%, and 10.06%, resulting in a three-year CAGR of 12.05% [11][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 85.91 billion, 95.39 billion, and 105.78 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 14.95%, 11.04%, and 10.89%, leading to a three-year CAGR of 12.28% [11][12] - The company maintains a strong brand barrier, and its competitive advantage is expected to further enhance in a weak recovery environment, with market share likely to continue increasing [11] Summary by Sections Share Buyback - On September 20, the company announced a share buyback plan using its own funds, with a buyback price not exceeding 1,795.78 yuan per share, amounting to 3 to 6 billion yuan, which corresponds to 1.67 to 3.34 million shares, accounting for 0.13% to 0.27% of total share capital [11] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2022 was 127.55 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16.53%, and is expected to reach 150.56 billion yuan in 2023 [12] - The EBITDA for 2024 is projected to be 123.26 billion yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 18.5 [12] - The company’s asset-liability ratio stands at 18.32% [7] Market Strategy - The company is actively expanding its marketing efforts to new consumer groups and has launched various promotional activities across over 30 provinces during the Mid-Autumn Festival season [11] - The company is also advancing its production capacity expansion, with a new production line expected to commence operations in the near future [11] Shareholder Returns - The company has announced a three-year dividend plan, committing to distribute cash dividends totaling no less than 75% of the annual net profit attributable to the parent company, which is expected to enhance market confidence [11]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业周报|电子 从 iPhone16 看智能手机光学升级趋势 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月21日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 近年来摄像头一直是智能手机厂商重点竞争领域，价值量呈现逐年增加的趋势。在 iPhone 16 这一代系列产品中，原先只应用于 Pro Max 版本的一些光学配置下沉至 Pro 版本，大大提升 了 Pro 版本拍摄性能。和 iPhone 15 Pro Max、iPhone 15 Pro 相比，iPhone 16 Pro 将超广 角镜头的像素从 1200 万提升至 4800 万。同时由于采用了潜望式长焦，相比于 iPhone 15 Pro 的最高 3 倍光学变焦，iPhone 16 Pro 支持最高 5 倍光学变焦。此外，iPhone 16 Pro 还支持 空间照片的拍摄，并且采用了抗反射涂层。 |分析师及联系人 熊军 王晔 SAC：S0590522040001 SAC：S0590521070004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 10 行业研究|行业周报 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月21日 电子 9 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating (首次) to the company, with a target price of 24.29 yuan based on a 2.5x PB multiple for 2024 [4][9][57] Core Views - The company is a leading semiconductor packaging and testing provider in China, ranking 4th globally and 2nd in mainland China in 2023 [2][7] - As AMD's largest packaging and testing supplier, accounting for over 80% of AMD's orders, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the rapid growth of AI and computing industries [2][5][7] - The company has a comprehensive layout in advanced packaging technologies, including 2D+, 3D stacking, and Chiplet, with several technologies already verified and mass-produced [5][14] - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.59% from 2024 to 2026, with net profit projected to increase significantly due to the company's leadership in advanced packaging and strong customer relationships [5][9] Industry Overview - The global advanced packaging market is expected to grow from $37.4 billion in 2021 to $65 billion by 2027, driven by the increasing difficulty and cost of improving chip performance through process advancements [5][22] - Chiplet technology, which allows for modular chip design, is becoming increasingly important for cost reduction and performance improvement, with the market expected to reach $57 billion by 2035 [25][26][28] - The semiconductor packaging and testing market is dominated by Taiwanese and mainland Chinese companies, with the company holding a 7.9% global market share in 2023 [29] Company Analysis - The company has seven major production bases and plans to acquire a 26% stake in Jinglong Technology to further enhance its industrial layout [36][37] - Revenue from the company's largest customer (AMD) has grown from 42.97% in 2018 to 59.38% in 2023, reflecting a strong and growing partnership [5][34] - The company has made significant progress in areas such as memory, display drivers, and power semiconductors, with several products entering mass production [14][44] - R&D investment has been consistently high, with the company holding over 1,500 patents, more than 60% of which are related to advanced packaging technologies [46][47] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to reach 25.85 billion yuan in 2024, 30.66 billion yuan in 2025, and 36.06 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 17.59% [5][9] - Net profit is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 115.91% from 2024 to 2026, driven by the company's leadership in advanced packaging and strong customer relationships [5][9] - The company's valuation is supported by a FCFE model, which estimates a fair value of 23.16 yuan per share, and a PB multiple of 1.9x, which is below the industry average [52][55][57]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The construction industry is facing pressure on growth and cash flow, while industry concentration continues to rise. The issuance of special bonds in the second half of the year may accelerate, alleviating funding pressures for infrastructure projects and easing profit and cash flow pressures for companies [3][9][10]. Summary by Sections Overall: Cash Flow and Growth Pressure, Continued Increase in Concentration - A sample of 20 construction companies, including central state-owned enterprises, international engineering firms, and local state-owned enterprises, shows that growth momentum is weakening, with median growth rates for new contracts, revenue, and net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024H1 at +2.4%, -1.4%, and -2.1% respectively. The industry concentration continues to increase, with sample companies accounting for 28% of total revenue in 2024H1, up from 26% in 2023H1 [9][12][13]. Sub-segment: Growth and Cash Flow Under Pressure, International Engineering Performs Better - The "one profit and five rates" comparison shows that international engineering firms outperform central state-owned enterprises, which in turn outperform local state-owned enterprises. In 2024H1, the profit growth rates for leading central state-owned enterprises were +3.7% for China Energy Engineering, +2.1% for China Communications Construction, and +1.3% for China Nuclear Engineering [25][26]. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Central State-owned Enterprises with Valuation Advantages and High Dividends - The report suggests focusing on two types of targets: 1) Central state-owned enterprises with low valuations and good dividends, benefiting from increased industry concentration, such as China Construction, China Railway Construction, and China Communications Construction; 2) Companies actively transforming and breaking into overseas markets, such as China National Materials, China Steel International, and China Chemical Engineering [9][10][27].

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|建筑装饰 增长及回款承压，重视估值优势 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月20日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 我们选择了整体央企、国际工程企业、地方国企合计 20 家企业作为样本，观察建筑行业整体 变化特征。2024H1 样本建筑企业规模增长中枢持续下移、国内回款形势较为严峻；另一方面， 行业集中度持续性提升及海外广阔市场前景应予足够重视。我们认为下半年专项债发行进度 或持续加快，有利于缓解基建项目资金端压力，纾解企业利润及回款压力。建议重视大型建筑 企业的估值优势及积极变化。 |分析师及联系人 SAC：S0590523080005 武慧东 吴红艳 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 18 行业研究|行业专题研究 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济|宏观点评 前置降息 50 基点正式开启降息周期 ——美联储 9 月议息会议点评 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月20日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 9 月美联储前置降息 50 个基点，点阵图显示继续降息是大概率，究竟是降 1 次还是 2 次还有 些分歧。当日美股高开低走，美债利率下行后反弹。9 月声明重点强调了美联储对劳动力市场 的支持。尽管鲍威尔在新闻发布会上努力说服市场，降息 50 个基点是基于好消息，但是市场 走势似乎仍反映衰退的担忧上升。我们仍认为美国经济不着陆的可能性较大。9 月公布的经济 预期概要中也整体维持了经济不着陆的预测，略微上修了失业率的预期，下修了通胀预期。同 时缩表 6 月已经降速，但流动性目前仍问题不大，需关注相关小银行风险。 |分析师及联系人 樊磊 王博群 SAC：S0590521120002 SAC：S0590524010002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 23 宏观经济|宏观点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月20日 宏观点评 前置降息 50 基点正式开启降息周期 ——美联储 9 月议息会议 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|装修建材 增长及盈利能力承压，延续分化 —装修建材企业 2024 半年报总结探讨 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月19日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 我们选取装修建材 25 家上市代表企业作为观察样本。2024H1 大部分样本企业收入和归母净 利润增长显现一定压力，反应需求继续筑底，其中北新建材、天安新材、王力安防收入和归母 净利润延续较好增长。整体来看，地产销售低迷背景下，装修建材需求增长有压力，竞争或延 续较为激烈态势，少部分客户偏 C 端或小 B 端的"消费"类企业收入利润增长显示更优韧性。 2024H1 大部分企业盈利承压，部分企业（如科顺股份、天安新材）受益于产品结构优化以及 降本降费措施，盈利能力稳步改善。2024H1 装修建材企业经营质量分化加大。 |分析师及联系人 武慧东 朱思敏 SAC：S0590523080005 SAC：S0590524050002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 18 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月19日 装修建材 增长及盈利能力承压，延续分化 —装 ...