研究报告Research Report 28 Apr 2024 中远海能 COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (600026 CH) 通胀预期下持续看好公司市场表现 Continued optimism for the company's market performance amid sustained inflation expectations. [观Ta点bl聚e_焦yem Inevie1s] tment Focus [Tab维le_持Inf优o] 于大市Maintain OUTPERFORM (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 评级 优于大市OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb15.76 2024 年 Q1，归属于母公司所有者的净利润 12.36 亿元，同比增长 目标价 Rmb20.95 12.76%；营业收入 58.38 亿元，同比增长 3.68%；基本每股收益 HTI ESG 2.3-2.4-2.5 0.259元，同比增长12.76%。 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 35.42, reflecting a 6% decrease from previous estimates [2][40]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2023 was RMB 630 million, a decline of 10.66% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 80 million, down 39.18% [7][10]. - The decrease in net profit was attributed to changes in downstream market demand and adjustments in product mix, with revenue from synthetic flavors, cooling agents, and natural flavors changing by -18.18%, 19.29%, and -29.53% respectively [7][11]. - The company is expanding its capacity and developing new products, with significant projects underway, including a 300-ton/year Isoamyl Acetate project and a 500-ton/year WS-23 project [7][11]. Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin (GPM) for synthetic flavors, cooling agents, and natural flavors changed by -9.37, 1.50, and -5.05 percentage points, resulting in GPMs of 16.92%, 33.94%, and 37.20% respectively [7][11]. - Total expenses in sales, management, finance, and R&D increased significantly, with total expense ratio rising by 4.78 percentage points to 19.18% [7][11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 1.54, RMB 2.55, and RMB 3.25 respectively, indicating a recovery in profitability [2][40]. Revenue and Cost Projections - The total revenue is expected to grow to RMB 900 million in 2024, RMB 1.199 billion in 2025, and RMB 1.438 billion in 2026, with corresponding net profits of RMB 124 million, RMB 206 million, and RMB 262 million [6][12]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve to 33.7% in 2024, 35.7% in 2025, and 37.2% in 2026 [6][12]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established strong relationships with well-known domestic and international firms, leveraging its advantages in brand, customer resources, product quality, and technology [11][7]. - As an early developer of natural flavors in China, the company has a robust R&D and production capability, currently able to mass-produce nearly 300 types of flavors, including over 160 natural flavors [11][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "OUTPERFORM" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 12.18, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price [2][5][14]. Core Insights - The film market is experiencing a strong recovery, with the company's operations showing significant improvement. In 2023, total revenue reached RMB 1.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 105%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 420 million, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year growth of 1596% [10][11]. - The company has a diverse and stable film supply, with a strong focus on animated films. In 2023, the film business generated RMB 1.29 billion in revenue, accounting for 83.2% of total revenue, with a gross profit margin of 41.02% [10][12]. - The company has a rich slate of films and TV series planned for 2024, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth. This includes several animated films and a variety of TV series [12][13]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of RMB 1.55 billion, with a net profit of RMB 420 million. The revenue from the film business was RMB 1.29 billion, while the agency and other income contributed RMB 260 million [10][11]. - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 projects total revenues of RMB 2.87 billion, RMB 3.27 billion, and RMB 3.73 billion, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 85.6%, 14.0%, and 14.2% respectively [4][8][13]. - The fully diluted EPS is expected to be RMB 0.37, RMB 0.43, and RMB 0.50 for 2024-2026, indicating a positive growth trajectory [8][14].

研究报告Research Report 25 Apr 2024 特斯拉 Tesla (TSLA US) 一季度营收遭遇滑铁卢，新平台廉价车型有望提前投产 1Q23 Revenue Faced Waterloo, and New Platform Entry-level Model Expected to Launch Early [观Ta点bl聚e_焦yem Inevie1s] tment Focus [Tab维le_持Inf优o] 于大市Maintain OUTPERFORM (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) Q1 营收遭遇滑铁卢，持续加码 AI 基建和储能投入。特斯拉 1Q24 评级 优于大市OUTPERFORM 单季营收164.6亿美元，同比降9%，由于ASP、车辆交付同比下降 现价 US$162.13 和汇率负面影响，受其他业务增长和 FSD 收入同增抵消。Q1 营业 目标价 US$216.60 利润率 5.5%，同比降 592bps。非 GAAP 净利润 15.4 亿美元，同比 市值 US$517.03bn 降 48%。毛利率同比降 199bps ...

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/公用事业 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024年04月25日 电力上周调整，Q1 压力较小，继续看好 [Table_Summary] 投资要点：  上周电力调整。上周电力股大跌，华电国际-7%，华能国际-5%，皖能电力-2.6%， 浙能电力-2.7%，几乎跌掉了前一周的涨幅。上证+1.5%，几乎覆盖了前一周的 跌幅。我们认为上周电力调整的核心理由是之前涨幅较大，而电力公司的经 营数据，比如华电，内蒙华电等电价相对去年有一定下降，同时煤价又企稳 了两周， Q1业绩或有压力，所以调整。但我们认为业绩不会面临太大压力， Q2仍将继续好转。上周油价下跌3%，英伟达大跌14%，电力股Q1业绩向好， 趋势明确。  上周国内煤价从812涨至820元/吨，但周五止涨。去年闰2月，煤炭库存看新 历或需有一定调整，农历或更有参考意义。上周 25 省电厂煤炭库存 1.08 亿 吨，周环比+1.5%，年同比+9.8%（前一周+10.2%），农历同比+15.0%（前一周 +14.2%）。日耗周平均489.4万吨，农历年同比-8.8%（前一周-5.8%）。上周三 港港口库存也在周中止跌回升，短 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/商业贸易/专营零售 证券研究报告 珀莱雅（603605）公司年报点评 2024年04月23日 1Q24 收入增 35%净利增 46%，龙头组织 定力赋能品牌周期 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 公司发布2023年报。2023全年实现收入89.05亿元，同比增长39.45%；归母净 利润11.94亿元，同比增长46.06%，扣非归母净利润11.74亿元，同比增长48.91%。 摊薄 EPS 为 2.97 元；加权平均净资产收益率 29.94%，经营性现金流净额 14.69 亿元，同比增长32.19%。 公司发布2024年一季报。一季度实现营业收入21.82亿元，同比增长34.56%； 归母净利润3.03亿元，同比增长45.58%；扣非净利润2.92亿元，同比增长47.50%； 摊薄EPS 0.75元。加权平均净资产收益率6.89%，经营性现金流净额为4.31亿 元，同比增长5.15%。 公司拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利9.1元（含税），合计派发现金股利3.59 亿元（含税）；公司已派发23年中期红利，向全体股东每10股派发现金红利0.38 元（含税）， ...

Huaichao Zhuang hc.zhuang@htisec.com 2023 年扣非净利润同比增长 28.19%， 24Q1 扣非净利润同比增长 21.99% [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 2023 年扣非净利润同比增长 28.19%， 24Q1 扣非净利润同比增长 21.99%。 2023 年公司实现营收 8.00 亿元，同比增加 15.07%；实现归母净利润 2.26 亿 元，同比增加 15.84%；实现扣非净利润 2.19 亿元，同比增长 28.19%。2023 年公司合计派发现金红利 9936.23 万元，占公司归母净利润的比例为 43.94%。 2023Q4，公司实现营收 2.15 亿元，同比增长 6.35%；实现归母净利润 5849 万元，同比增加12.80%；实现扣非净利润5761万元，同比增长44.72%。2024Q1， 公司实现营收 1.92 亿元，同比增加 12.40%；实现归母净利润 6170 万元，同 比增长 20.37%；实现扣非净利润 6080 万元，同比增长 21.99%。 公司 23H1 完成收购科澳化学和信达丰。科澳化学具有多种成熟的抗氧剂配方 和生产经验 ...

Industry Overview - The autoimmune disease (AID) market is the second-largest drug market globally, with a significant patient base requiring lifelong treatment [2] - Autoimmune diseases affect approximately 7.6% to 9.4% of the global population, with over 100 different types identified [4] - The global autoimmune drug market was valued at $1323 billion in 2022, with biologics accounting for 72.9% of the market share [11] Market Growth and Trends - The global autoimmune drug market is projected to reach $1767 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 3.7% from 2022 to 2030 [11] - Biologics are expected to dominate the market, increasing their share to 81% by 2030 [11] - Psoriasis, rheumatoid arthritis, and asthma are the top three indications by market size, with psoriasis expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.4% from 2020 to 2030 [12] Key Therapeutic Areas - Psoriasis: The global market is expected to grow from $253 billion in 2020 to $515 billion by 2030, driven by biologics targeting TNF-α, IL-17, and IL-23 [12] - Atopic Dermatitis: The market is projected to grow from $126 billion in 2020 to $232 billion by 2030, with JAK and IL-4R inhibitors leading the way [12] - Rheumatoid Arthritis: The market is expected to grow from $230 billion in 2020 to $378 billion by 2030, with TNF-α and JAK inhibitors remaining key players [12] China Market Dynamics - China's autoimmune drug market is in its early stages, with a market size of $36 billion in 2022, expected to grow to $247 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 27.2% [16] - Biologics penetration in China is low, but rapid growth is expected as more drugs are approved and covered by insurance [16] - Key areas of growth in China include psoriasis, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), and atopic dermatitis, with CAGRs of 29.0%, 28.0%, and 21.1%, respectively [16] Key Players and Drugs - Adalimumab (TNF-α) remains the top-selling autoimmune drug globally, with $212.4 billion in sales in 2022 [8] - Dupilumab (IL-4Rα) and Ustekinumab (IL-12/IL-23) are also top performers, with sales of $97.2 billion and $97.2 billion, respectively, in 2022 [8] - In China, companies like Hengrui Medicine, Innovent Biologics, and CSPC Pharmaceutical are leading in the development of IL-17, IL-23, and JAK inhibitors [20] Emerging Therapies and Innovations - New therapies targeting IL-4, IL-13, OX40, and TSLP are in development, with potential to address unmet needs in atopic dermatitis and asthma [32] - Oral JAK inhibitors like Upadacitinib and Abrocitinib are gaining traction, offering faster response times compared to biologics [22] - Combination therapies, such as IL-4/IL-13/TSLP trispecific antibodies, are being explored to improve efficacy and expand indications [33] Market Challenges and Opportunities - Price and accessibility are critical factors for the adoption of autoimmune drugs in China, with insurance coverage playing a key role in driving sales [17] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with both domestic and international companies vying for market share in China's rapidly growing autoimmune drug market [16] - Companies with strong R&D pipelines and the ability to quickly bring innovative therapies to market are well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for autoimmune treatments [19]

研究报告Research Report 24 Apr 2024 康哲药业 China Medical System Holdings (867 HK) 集采下业绩承压，创新管线陆续迎来转化 Earnings Under Pressure Due to VBP, Expecting Transformation of Innovative Pipeline [观Ta点bl聚e_焦yem Inevie1s] tment Focus [Tab维le_持Inf优o] 于大市Maintain OUTPERFORM (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 评级 优于大市OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$7.10 康哲药业公布 2023 年业绩：营业额 80.1 亿元（-12.4%）；若全按 目标价 HK$9.90 药品销售收入计算，营业额 94.7 亿元（-9.8%）。毛利率 76.2% HTI ESG 2.0-2.5-4.0 （-0.7pct）；销售费用 25.1 亿元（-7.7%），销售费用率 31.3% E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/医药与健康护理/化学制药 证券研究报告 九洲药业（603456）公司年报点评 2024年04月22日 九洲药业 2023 年报点评：全年收入利润 增速放缓，CDMO 业务实现高质量增长 [Table_Summary] 投资要点：  公告：九洲药业发布2023年报。  点评：  收入端增速放缓。2023 年，公司营业收入 55.23 亿元，同比增长 1.44%；归 母净利润 10.33 亿元，同比增长 12.17%；扣非归母净利润 10.24 亿元，同比 增长10.46%；公司经营性现金流为13.60亿元，同比增长10.98%。2023年第 四季度，公司营业收入9.47亿元，同比下降11.71%，归母净利润0.66亿元， 同比下降62.64%，扣非净利润0.73亿元，同比下降55.74%。  2023年分业务板块经营情况： （1）CDMO业务：收入40.79亿元，同比增长19.40%，占营业总收入73.86%， 毛利率40.34%。公司原料药 CDMO项目管线日益丰富，已经形成了可持续的临 床前/临床Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ期的漏斗型项目结构，已递交NDA的新药项目数快速增 ...