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静待下半年多产品放量
海通国际· 2024-04-24 00:30
Notice to Singapore investors: This research report is provided in Singapore by or through Haitong International Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd ("HTISSPL") [Co Reg No 201311400G. HTISSPL is an Exempt Financial Adviser under the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) ("FAA") to (a) advise on securities, units in a collective investment scheme, exchange-traded derivatives contracts and over-the- counter derivatives contracts and (b) issue or promulgate research analyses or research reports on securities, exchange- ...
2023年扣非后净利润同比增长55.82%,在建项目不断推进
海通国际· 2024-04-23 10:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company with a target price of Rmb8.45, based on a FY24E PER of 12.43x [4][8][10]. Core Insights - The company's recurring net profit increased by 55.82% year-on-year in 2023, with total operating revenue reaching Rmb9.991 billion, a 10.54% increase from the previous year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was Rmb701 million, up 58.94% year-on-year [1][14]. - The growth in operating income was primarily driven by increased sales volume of fertilizer products, supported by effective raw material procurement and inventory management strategies [1][14]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends totaling approximately Rmb150 million, with a dividend of Rmb1.30 per 10 shares [1][14]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company produced 3.391 million tonnes of phosphate compound fertilizer, a 24.32% increase year-on-year, with sales of 3.131 million tonnes, up 16.93% year-on-year. The increase in sales was attributed to rising grain prices and stable downstream demand [2][15]. - The operating revenue from sulfur-based compound fertilizers was Rmb2.041 billion, a 34.07% increase year-on-year, while the gross profit margin improved to 17.39%. Chlorine-based compound fertilizers generated Rmb5.875 billion in revenue, up 6.95% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 17.28% [2][15]. - The company has ongoing construction projects that are expected to enhance its production capacity, including a new 400,000 tonnes/year sulfur-based compound fertilizer unit and several monoammonium phosphate plants [3][16]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for the company has been raised due to increased sales volume, with expected EPS for 2024-2026 at Rmb0.68 (+4.62%), Rmb0.77 (+2.67%), and Rmb0.90 (new) [4][8][12]. - The projected operating revenue for 2024 is Rmb11.488 billion, reflecting a 15% growth from 2023 [12]. ESG and Governance - The company adheres to national environmental laws and regulations, enhancing its pollution control measures and energy-saving initiatives [5][19]. - It has established a robust governance structure, including clear roles and responsibilities for its shareholders, board of directors, and management [19].
公司年报点评:2023年扣非后净利润同比下降8.83%,在建项目有序推进
海通国际· 2024-04-23 08:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 15.68 based on a 14x PE for 2024 [8][14]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company's net profit excluding non-recurring items fell by 8.83% year-on-year, with total revenue of RMB 15.10 billion, down 5.38% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.21 billion, a decrease of 7.85% [39]. - The decline in profit was primarily attributed to fluctuations in raw material prices and market factors affecting downstream inventory levels, leading to price drops in phosphate compound fertilizers [39]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 3 per 10 shares, totaling RMB 376 million, which represents approximately 31.15% of the 2023 net profit attributable to shareholders [39]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved phosphate fertilizer sales of 5.07 million tons, an increase of 6.30% year-on-year. The breakdown by product includes: - Phosphate fertilizers: 1.06 million tons sold, up 13.97% year-on-year, with revenue of RMB 3.05 billion, down 8.03%, and a gross profit margin of 19.52%, up 1.16 percentage points [7][13]. - Conventional compound fertilizers: 2.89 million tons sold, down 1.49%, with revenue of RMB 7.51 billion, down 13.12%, and a gross profit margin of 11.03%, up 1.02 percentage points [7][13]. - New compound fertilizers: 1.12 million tons sold, up 23.60%, with revenue of RMB 3.67 billion, up 12.50%, and a gross profit margin of 19.47%, up 1.10 percentage points [7][13]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is RMB 1.41 billion, RMB 1.67 billion, and RMB 1.93 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.12, RMB 1.33, and RMB 1.53 [8][14]. - The company expects revenue growth to resume in 2024, with projected revenues of RMB 15.86 billion, RMB 17.15 billion, and RMB 18.60 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [11][36].
公司年报点评:23年归母净利2.2亿元,分红尽显诚意
海通国际· 2024-04-23 08:00
我, 汪立亭,在此保证(i)本研究报告中的意见准确反映了我们对本研究中提及的任何或所有目标公司或上市公司的个人观点,并且(ii)我的报酬中没有任何部分与本研究报告中表 达的具体建议或观点直接或间接相关;及就此报告中所讨论目标公司的证券,我们(包括我们的家属)在其中均不持有任何财务利益。我和我的家属(我已经告知他们)将不会在本研 究报告发布后的 3 个工作日内交易此研究报告所讨论目标公司的证券。I, Liting Wang, certify that (i) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject companies or issuers referred to in this research and (ii) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations ...
首次覆盖:本土业绩有支撑,海外份额或提升
海通国际· 2024-04-23 02:30
资料来源:公司官网,HTI 资料来源:公司官网,HTI 22 Apr 2024 2 [Table_header2] 朝日集团 (2502 JP) 首次覆盖优于大市 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 啤酒 烈酒 其它 红酒 冰箱普及率 单位:升 图 4 日本人均酒精消耗量 (左轴)与冰箱普及率 (右轴), 1961-1979 年 图 5 日本四大啤酒厂商市场份额变化,1954-2013 年 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 19541957196019631966196919721975197819811984198719901993199619992002200520082011 朝日 麒麟 札幌 三得利 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 资料来源:世界卫生组织,日本统计局,HTI 注:人均酒精消耗量以纯酒精量计 资料来源:公司 2013 年年报,HTI 朝日啤酒 麒麟啤酒 图 6 1980 年朝日啤酒和麒麟啤酒在日本产能分布 图 7 公司引领日本啤酒容器创新 资料来源:公司 ...
首次覆盖:核心业务盈利稳定,核电“双雄”稳占半壁江山
海通国际· 2024-04-23 01:02
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "OUTPERFORM" rating for China General Nuclear Power (1816 HK) [2][36]. Core Views - The core business of China General Nuclear Power demonstrates stable profitability, with nuclear power accounting for a significant portion of the country's energy supply [5][8]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the nuclear power sector, with a strong operational capacity and ongoing projects that support future growth [5][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Clear Outlook for Nuclear Power Leader - China General Nuclear Power is the sole platform for nuclear energy generation under China General Nuclear Group, a state-owned enterprise regulated by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [8]. - The company focuses on safe, efficient, and low-carbon energy supply through the construction, operation, and management of nuclear power plants [8]. 2. Stable Financials and Growing Cash Dividends - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 82.56 billion, with a slight decrease of 0.35% year-on-year, while net profit rose by 9.99% to RMB 9.49 billion [13]. - Power sales contributed RMB 62.52 billion, accounting for 75.7% of total revenue, with a gross profit of RMB 28.67 billion and a gross margin of 45.85% [13][5]. - The company has maintained a stable dividend growth, with a payout ratio of 44.3% based on net profit [19]. 3. Nuclear Power "Duopoly" Dominating the Market - As of the end of 2023, China General Nuclear Power operated 27 nuclear units with a total installed capacity of 30,568 MW, representing 53.6% of the national operational nuclear capacity [27][24]. - The company is expected to see steady growth in installed capacity, with an average of 1-2 units expected to be commissioned annually from 2024 to 2028 [31]. 4. Extending Nuclear Plant Lifespan as a Path to Net Zero by 2050 - The company has significantly reduced coal consumption and CO2 emissions through its operations, contributing to environmental sustainability [33]. - Extending the operational lifespan of nuclear plants is crucial for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, with the potential to add substantial low-carbon electricity to the grid [33]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts operating revenues for FY24-26 at RMB 87.12 billion, RMB 91.95 billion, and RMB 97.05 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 16.23 billion, RMB 17.78 billion, and RMB 19.34 billion [34]. - A target price of HK$3.27 per share is set based on DCF valuation, reflecting the company's stable dividend growth and decreasing debt ratio [34].
工商业用户占比持续扩大,派息比例仍有上涨空间
海通国际· 2024-04-23 01:02
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Kunlun Energy [3][6][9] Core Views - In 2023, all business segments of Kunlun Energy achieved comprehensive profitability, with a revenue of CNY 177.35 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was CNY 5.68 billion, an increase of 8.7% compared to the previous year [6][9] - The growth in revenue was primarily driven by a 9.6% increase in natural gas sales volume, reaching 49.29 billion cubic meters, particularly from industrial and commercial users [6][7] - The company expects to add 800,000 new users in 2024, with a projected 10% year-on-year increase in natural gas sales volume [7][9] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023: CNY 177.35 billion, up 3.2% YoY [6] - Net profit for 2023: CNY 5.68 billion, up 8.7% YoY [6] - Gross profit margin: 12.0%, down 0.2 percentage points YoY [6] - Operating profit margin: 6.7%, up 0.2 percentage points YoY [6] - Net profit margin: 5.2%, up 0.5 percentage points YoY [6] - Average processing rate of LNG facilities: 90.6% [6] - Average processing rate of LNG increased by 1.1 percentage points to 45.4% [6] Dividend and Cash Flow - Operating cash flow in 2023 reached CNY 14.41 billion, with free cash flow of CNY 9.02 billion [8] - The dividend per share increased to CNY 0.28 in 2023, corresponding to a payout ratio of 40% of core profit [8] - The company expects the dividend payout ratio to increase to 45% by 2025 [8] Valuation Forecast - Revenue projections for FY24-26 are CNY 189.98 billion, CNY 202.59 billion, and CNY 215.16 billion, respectively [9] - Target price set at HKD 8.11 per share [9]
公司年报点评:2024,进入微芯原创新药收获之年
海通国际· 2024-04-23 01:01
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 26.33 per share [36][41]. Core Insights - The company is entering a year of harvesting original new drugs starting in 2024, with significant expectations for its drug Xidabenamine in various indications [27][37]. - Xidabenamine has shown promising data in multiple trials, particularly in combination with PD-1, indicating a potential new era for immuno-oncology treatments [28][38]. - The company anticipates multiple data readouts and market approval submissions in 2024, including for Xidabenamine in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and Siglitin in NASH [4][17]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 524 million, a slight decline of 1.2% year-over-year, while net profit increased significantly by 408.1% to RMB 89 million [16][18]. - The revenue forecast for 2024 is RMB 705 million, representing a growth of 34.5% year-over-year, with expectations of continued growth in subsequent years [20][18]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to decline from 89.1% in 2023 to 83.8% in 2024, reflecting increased competition and investment in R&D [18][20]. Drug Pipeline and Market Potential - Siglitin, a novel insulin sensitizer, has entered a volume increase phase after being included in the National Reimbursement Drug List for type 2 diabetes in January 2023 [27]. - The company expects to see significant growth in revenue from Siglitin, with a projected revenue of RMB 127 million in 2024, up from RMB 42 million in 2023 [23]. - Xidabenamine is anticipated to receive approval for its DLBCL indication in the first half of 2024, which could significantly expand its market potential [37]. Valuation - The DCF valuation suggests a fair market capitalization of RMB 10.83 billion, with a target price of RMB 26.33 per share, based on a perpetual growth rate of 0.20% to 0.80% and a WACC of 5.95% to 6.55% [29][41].
公司年报点评:23年归母净利润9.44亿元同比下滑,24年来制冷剂景气度大幅改善
海通国际· 2024-04-23 01:00
[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/化工/基础化工材料制品 证券研究报告 巨化股份(600160)公司年报点评 2024年04月22日 23 年归母净利润 9.44 亿元同比下滑,24 年来制冷剂景气度大幅改善 [Table_Summary] 投资要点:  巨化股份发布2023年年度报告。2023年公司实现营业收入206.55亿元,同 比下滑3.88%,归母净利润9.44亿元,同比下滑60.37%。公司拟向向全体股 东按每 10 股派发现金红利 1.1 元(含税),占合并报表中归属于上市公司股 东净利润的31.48%。  公司2023年营业收入与利润下滑主要系产品价格下降。1)分业务营收来看, 公司含氟精细化学品、氟化工原料,含氟聚合物材料、基础化工产品及其他、 制冷剂、食品包装材料、石化材料 2023 年营业收入分别同比变化-17.31%、 -20.83%、-11.54%、-15.33%、-12.21%、-4.72%、48.35%至0.49、6.80、22.07、 41.25、59.83、13.00、25.08 亿元。2)分业务毛利率来看,公司含氟精细化 学品、氟化工原料,含氟聚合物材料、基础化 ...
公司年报点评:需求修复带动23年业绩改善,24年业绩有望进一步提升
海通国际· 2024-04-22 12:00
[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/交通运输/航空公司 证券研究报告 吉祥航空(603885)公司年报点评 [ Table_InvestInfo] 需求修复带动 23 年业绩改善, 24 年业绩有望进一步提升 [Table_Summary] 投资要点:  23年客运收入大幅改善,业务成本随航班量修复有所增长。23年公司实现营 收 200.96 亿元,同比上升 144.8%,较 19 年同期上升 20.0%;录得归母净利 润 7.51 亿元(去年同期亏损 41.48 亿元,19 年同期盈利 9.94 亿元)。公司 23 年总供给/需求分别环比上升 105.79%/153.17%,客座率环比上升 15.5pcts 至 82.8%,公司毛利率环比上升 50.4pcts 至 14.25%;随着航班量修复,主营 业务成本同比上涨 54.14%至 171.63 亿元:其中航油成本同比上升 82.70%至 63.38 亿元,占主营业务成本 36.93%;随着航班量增加,起降费等同比上升 121.72%;人工成本同比上涨 31.34%,但占比下降至 17.44%。全年人民币兑 美元升值 1.7%带来汇兑损失 1.3 ...