[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 稳定预期，激发活力 ——政府工作报告的八点学习体会 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 2025 年 03 月 07 日 宏观专题 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 连桐杉 邮箱：liants＠tebon.com.cn 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心观点：3 月 5 日，2025 年政府工作报告正式公布，2025 年是十四五规划最后 一年，为圆满收官"十四五"，并为"十五五"的良好开局打牢基础，本次政府工 作报告定调积极，结合短期内外部的风险和中期经济挑战，进行了针对性的政策和 改革部署，我们认为，以下是本次会议着重需要关注的四个方面： 一是政策基调强调稳定预期、激发活力，首先，宏观政策要结合形势动态调整，当 前的政策安排依旧为未来留用空 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 通信 通信 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 43% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 通信 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《DeepSeek 开源的杀伤力》， 2025.3.1 2.《IDC 行业深度：DeepSeek 加速 国产算力链形成闭环，价值网络有 望井喷》，2025.2.25 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年 03 月 06 日 事件：2025 年 3 月 5 日，2025 年《政府工作报告》提出要建立未来产业投入增长 机制，培育生物制造、量子科技、具身智能、6G 等未来产业。 从 AI+到具身智能，AI 持续赋能千行百业。人工智能+首次写入 2024 年政府工作 报告。截至目前，人工智能产业持续发展，融合千行百业取得长足进步：1、大模 型涌现。根据国家互联网信息办公室数据，截至 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观周报 2025 年 3 月 3 日 [Table_Main] 宏观周报 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy@tebon.com.cn 连桐杉 邮箱：liants＠tebon.com.cn 本周看什么？俄乌冲突进展、AI+ --宏观周报（20250224-20250302） [Table_Summary] 摘要： 核心观点：本周聚焦两个方向，其一，俄乌问题和平解决仍面临挑战。其二，抢抓 人工智能发展的历史性机遇，"人工智能+"建设浪潮将至。 高频宏观数据：高频数据映射的行业来看，建筑建材和石油化工行业景气度待修 复。 短期投资建议：债市关注两会政策；股市关注海外扰动下市场情绪的修复以及国内 政策预期的发酵。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 热点观察 1：俄乌问题和平解决或仍面临挑战。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和乌克兰 总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基星期五(2 月 28 日)在白宫会面演变成一场就乌克兰战 争的激烈争吵。其主要是由于 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in AI SaaS and data analysis applications in China, with significant growth potential driven by its unique offerings in satellite and low-altitude data [6][9] - The company is expected to experience a structural adjustment in its revenue growth momentum in 2025, with a focus on enhancing its business model from project-based to subscription-based services [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with a notable absolute increase of 18.55% over one month and 26.19% over two months [4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.26 billion yuan (up 29.49% YoY) and a net profit of 352 million yuan (up 2.67% YoY) [8] - The company has a projected revenue growth of 32.3% in 2025, reaching approximately 4.31 billion yuan, and a net profit of 490 million yuan, reflecting a 39.4% increase [9][10] Business Segments - The fastest-growing segment is the online business (Star Map Earth), with revenue expected to reach 103 million yuan in 2024, a YoY increase of 395.44% [6] - The meteorological ecological business (Weitianxin) is projected to generate 563 million yuan in revenue, up 47.36% YoY, while government business (Star Map Wisdom) is expected to reach 956 million yuan, up 28.91% YoY [6] Profitability - The gross margin for the Star Map Cloud online business is 76.80%, contributing to an overall gross margin increase to 49.59% [6] - The company plans to increase investment in Star Map Cloud, low-altitude cloud, and AI data analysis platforms, with a proposed capital increase of 2.5 billion yuan [8] Future Outlook - The company aims to leverage AI technologies to reduce marginal development costs and enhance user experience, positioning itself for scalable growth in the AI SaaS and data analysis market [6] - The projected net profit for 2026 and 2027 is expected to reach 809 million yuan and 1.22 billion yuan, respectively, indicating continued strong growth [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [2] Core Views - The food and beverage industry is expected to gradually improve due to signs of recovery in real estate data and supportive policies [5][8] - The report highlights three main investment themes for 2025: focusing on industry leaders with strong fundamentals, companies that may benefit from demand recovery, and those undergoing management improvements [5][8] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The liquor sector saw a 1.64% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.86% during the week of February 24-28, 2025 [5][8] - Key stocks such as Jinse Yuan (+12.12%) and Zhenjiu Lidu (+8.37%) led the gains [5][8] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 3.99 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 1.77% compared to a 2.22% decline in the index [15] - Various sub-sectors showed positive trends, including snacks (+4.30%) and meat products (+3.52%) [16] Key Data Tracking - As of February 28, 2025, the overall valuation of the food and beverage sector was 20.25x (PE-TTM), significantly higher than the CSI 300's 12.55x [20] - The liquor segment's valuation was noted at 19.50x, while snacks and health products were at 32.11x [20] Company Announcements - Jinse Yuan reported a significant increase in sales, with a 72% growth in its V3 product line [47] - Other companies like Salted Fish and Anqi Yeast also made notable announcements regarding their performance and future projects [43]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Xin Feng Ming (603225.SH) with a "Buy" rating [6]. Core Views - The report highlights a favorable long-term supply-demand landscape for polyester filament yarn, indicating a potential turning point in supply and demand dynamics [4]. - The company has established a significant scale advantage in the polyester filament sector, with plans for further capacity expansion [17]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability driven by the release of new capacities and an improving market environment [5]. Summary by Sections 1. "Two Continents and Two Lakes" Base Layout - Xin Feng Ming has been a leader in the chemical fiber industry for over 20 years, focusing on the research, production, and sales of polyester filament yarn [15]. - The company has expanded its upstream supply chain by investing in PTA production, enhancing its raw material self-sufficiency [17]. - The establishment of an international supply chain through a partnership with Tongkun Group for a refinery project in Indonesia is noted [15][17]. 2. Favorable Supply-Demand Dynamics for Filament Yarn - The inventory levels of POY and FDY are currently at low levels, with significant inventory reduction observed due to increased orders from overseas [5]. - The report predicts a long-term positive supply-demand balance, with a decrease in the growth rate of filament yarn production capacity from 7.1% (2017-2023) to 1.5% (2024-2026) [5]. - Demand for polyester filament yarn is expected to grow, with a projected year-on-year increase of 18% in 2024 [5]. 3. Significant Scale Advantage and Upstream Integration - Xin Feng Ming's polyester filament capacity has grown from 4.3 million tons in 2019 to 7.4 million tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5% [5]. - The company is also the largest producer of polyester staple fiber in China, with a capacity of 1.2 million tons as of mid-2024 [17]. - Plans for further capacity expansion include an additional 650,000 tons of PTA production, enhancing the company's upstream integration [17]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for Xin Feng Ming to be 1.17 billion, 1.97 billion, and 2.49 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 7.7%, 68.1%, and 26.6% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electrical equipment industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that silicon material prices are stable, with new production capacity expected to come online soon. The average transaction prices for N-type and P-type polysilicon are reported at 41,700 CNY/ton and 34,000 CNY/ton respectively, with minimal fluctuations observed [6][10]. - Investment suggestions in the renewable energy sector focus on companies with integrated component advantages, emerging technologies in battery cells, and leading inverter firms. Key companies include JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, and CATL among others [6][10][19]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of monitoring the wind power sector, suggesting attention to offshore wind-related companies and upstream component manufacturers [14][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Silicon Material and Prices - Silicon material prices remain stable, with N-type polysilicon prices ranging from 39,000 to 46,000 CNY/ton and an average of 41,700 CNY/ton. P-type polysilicon prices range from 32,000 to 36,000 CNY/ton, averaging 34,000 CNY/ton. Most polysilicon companies are operating at reduced capacity, with a slight decrease in demand due to self-regulation in the industry [10][11]. - The report indicates that the market is currently observing a cautious attitude from both upstream and downstream players, with procurement decisions primarily driven by economic considerations [10][11]. 2. Renewable Energy Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on several key areas for investment in renewable energy: 1. Integrated component companies with new battery cell technologies: JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, Trina Solar. 2. Companies in the battery cell segment with emerging technologies: Tongwei Co., Aiko Solar, and Junda Co. 3. Silicon wafer companies with efficiency or volume growth potential: TCL Zhonghuan, Shuangliang Eco-Energy. 4. Leading inverter companies benefiting from overall growth: Sungrow Power Supply, GoodWe, and DeYe [6][10][19]. 3. Wind Power Sector - Investment suggestions in the wind power sector include: 1. Offshore wind-related companies: Qifan Cable, Haizhi Wind Power, and Zhenjiang Co. 2. Upstream component manufacturers: Guoda Special Materials, Lixing Co. 3. Wind turbine manufacturers: Sany Heavy Energy, Mingyang Smart Energy [14][19]. 4. Electric Power Equipment and Industrial Control - The report recommends focusing on the energy storage segment within electric power equipment, highlighting companies such as New Fengguang, Jinpan Technology, Sifang Co., and State Grid NARI Technology [6][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Chinese innovative drug sector is expected to experience new growth logic due to internal and external policy catalysts, suggesting a focus on undervalued small-cap pharmaceutical stocks [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Innovative Drugs and Industry Chain - **Sangfor Pharmaceutical**: Core products show steady growth, with innovative pipelines gradually yielding results. The PD-1/VEGF dual antibody AK112 has become the first to defeat K drug in head-to-head Phase III trials, enhancing the development heat for PD(L)-1/VEGF dual antibodies [10][11]. - **Kojin Pharmaceutical**: The CAR-T therapy shows significant potential, with its first product, CT053, approved for multiple myeloma treatment. Another product, CT041, is expected to submit NDA in mid-2025 [12][13]. - **Hotgen Biotech**: The SGC001 drug for acute myocardial infarction is progressing through clinical trials, with promising preclinical data indicating significant therapeutic effects [20][21]. - **Kangfang Biotech**: The company is advancing its IO+ADC strategy, with two dual antibodies already approved. It is collaborating with Pfizer to explore combination therapies for various solid tumors [30][34]. - **Kolin Biotech**: The company is expanding its international clinical trials with Merck, focusing on multiple cancer types [36][40]. 2. Market Performance Review - The pharmaceutical sector index fell by 2.7% from February 24 to February 28, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.5%. However, year-to-date, the sector has risen by 1.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 2.3% [43][44]. 3. Investment Strategy and Focus - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: 1) Oversold blue-chip stocks and Hong Kong stocks, 2) Companies with positive short-term changes and low price-to-book ratios, 3) Firms with solid fundamentals, and 4) Companies expected to show high growth in H2 2024 [7][8]. - Recommended stocks include Kangfang Biotech, Zai Lab, Kolin Biotech, and others [7]. 4. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in the demand for innovative drugs, driven by supportive government policies and increased investment in the biotech sector. This recovery is expected to benefit upstream companies and CRO services [42].

Market Performance - In February, global stock markets showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Tech and Hang Seng Index leading gains globally[4] - The US major indices experienced declines, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq down by -1.4%, -1.6%, and -4.0% respectively[4] - European markets saw collective gains, with Germany's DAX, France's CAC40, and the UK's FTSE 100 rising by 3.8%, 2.0%, and 1.6% respectively[4] Economic Indicators - US initial jobless claims rose by 22,000 to 242,000, the highest level since October 2024[4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for January recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, the lowest since June 2024[4] - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for February was reported at 98.3, below market expectations[4] Market Sentiment - The market is beginning to trade on "recession" narratives, indicated by a significant drop in retail sales and consumer confidence[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield has been declining, recently falling below 4.2%[4] - Current market conditions suggest a narrative of moderate economic weakening rather than a significant risk of hard landing[4] Asset Allocation Strategy - March is expected to be a macro-heavy month with various uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and upcoming FOMC meetings[4] - Recommended asset allocation includes a focus on short-term US Treasuries and a balanced approach between value (Dow) and growth (XBI) stocks[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, which could lead to tighter monetary policies in the US and Europe[4] - Global economic conditions may worsen, impacting market performance negatively[4] - Escalation of geopolitical conflicts could heighten market volatility and risk aversion[4]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《行业自律逐步兑现，关注有机硅、 涤纶长丝、三氯蔗糖等》，2025.2.23 2.《聚氨酯行业深度报告——从海外 企业财报看未来三年聚氨酯供需格 局》，2025.2.20 3.《春潮涌动！关注化工涨价行情》， 2025.2.16 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 4.《春耕有望提振化肥景气，新政赋 能生物柴油破局》，2025.2.9 5.《春耕来临，关注化肥板块投资机 会》，2025.2.9 基础化工 2025 年 03 月 02 日 关注生柴内需与出口政策，新疆 煤化工建设加速落地 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点： 生物柴油政策密集促内需扩容，关注出口细则落地助出海提速。①头部海运公司加 速生物船燃布局，生物柴油商业化落地有望再加速。中国远洋海运 ...