Macro Analysis - The upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) is expected to maintain an economic growth target of around 5%[11] - Key focuses include boosting consumption, fiscal and monetary policy coordination, and structural reforms to improve the business environment[11] - Five major industry themes for 2025 are identified: AI and AI+, quality consumption, new urbanization, infrastructure overseas, and food security[11] Market Impact - The NPC is anticipated to establish industry trends with policies supporting AI and AI+ as the most significant trends for 2025[16] - Enhancing consumer sentiment and happiness is a core policy concern, with current consumption performance being relatively weak[16] - The transition from old to new economic drivers will take time, with price rather than volume being a key factor influencing major asset changes in 2025[16] Investment Highlights - Jiufeng Energy (605090.SH) shows steady growth in clean energy with LNG domestic sales increasing, and the company’s gross profit per ton is improving[17] - Solid growth in the traditional Chinese medicine sector is noted for Guoshengtang (02273.HK), with a CAGR of 26.2% from 2018 to 2023[21] - Ximai Food (002956.SZ) has seen a steady increase in revenue, with a 5-year CAGR of 13.1% despite profit fluctuations[24] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential underperformance of policy support, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and competition in various sectors[7][12][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the civil explosive industry, aiming for widespread application of unmanned production lines by the end of 2027, and to enhance the industry's concentration by forming 3 to 5 large enterprises with strong international competitiveness [4]. - The integration of AI technology in civil explosive production is expected to drive the modernization of outdated equipment, with a goal of achieving a 90% CNC rate in key processes by 2027 [4]. - The report highlights the ongoing optimization of product structure and production capacity, with a focus on increasing the proportion of on-site mixed explosives and high-value products [4]. - The global market for civil explosives is projected to be significantly larger than the domestic market, presenting opportunities for domestic companies to expand internationally, particularly under the Belt and Road Initiative [4][5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical industry has shown a performance trend with fluctuations ranging from -18% to +24% compared to the CSI 300 index [2]. Related Research - Several related reports have been published, focusing on various aspects of the chemical industry, including price trends and investment opportunities in specific sectors like organic silicon and fertilizers [3]. Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support in driving industry consolidation and enhancing product quality, with a target for the industry's CR10 to increase from 49% in 2020 to over 60% by the end of 2025 [4]. - The report suggests monitoring specific companies such as Jin Aobo, Yipuli, Jiangnan Chemical, and others for potential investment opportunities [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent surge in policies supporting the biodiesel industry is expected to accelerate domestic commercialization and clarify export guidelines, enhancing the industry's profitability outlook [5] - The EU's anti-dumping investigation conclusion has reduced market uncertainty, indicating that the industry's "darkest hour" has passed, and companies with established overseas sales channels may benefit [5] - The rising price of glycerin, a byproduct of biodiesel production, is projected to significantly boost the profits of related manufacturers [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a market performance fluctuation of -17% to +26% from March 2024 to November 2024 [3] Policy Developments - Multiple policies have been introduced to promote biodiesel, including pilot programs and guidelines for renewable energy alternatives, indicating a strong governmental push towards the industry [5][13] Company Developments - The report highlights that Zhuoyue New Energy's 50,000-ton biodiesel capacity could yield approximately 40,000 tons of glycerin, potentially adding 96 million yuan to after-tax profits at current glycerin prices [5] - Zhuoyue New Energy's upcoming production of fatty alcohol from biodiesel is expected to leverage cost advantages due to internal raw material supply, enhancing profitability [7] Price Trends - Glycerin prices have surged to 7,400 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 14.3% and a year-on-year increase of 85% [5] - Fatty alcohol prices reached 20,800 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 77.8% [7] Recommended Stocks - Suggested stocks to watch include Zhuoyue New Energy, Jiaao Environmental Protection, Haineng Technology, Pengyao Environmental Protection, Langkun Environment, and Shangaohuan Energy [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Views - The coal industry is expected to benefit from improving macroeconomic conditions and demand recovery, particularly in the context of the upcoming "Two Sessions" and government policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [4][5] - The report highlights the potential for price rebounds in both coking and thermal coal due to anticipated demand recovery and supportive fiscal policies [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Overview**: Thermal coal prices have decreased, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price at 690 CNY/ton, down 29 CNY/ton (-4.03%) [11][12] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Increased railway input and differentiated domestic and international freight rates noted [36][39] - **Inventory Analysis**: Southern and northern port inventories show divergence, with total inventory decreasing [44][46] - **International Coal Market**: International coal prices have declined, with Newcastle FOB thermal coal price at 76 USD/ton, down 1.75 USD/ton (-2.25%) [53][55] 2. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a decline of 1.11% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's decline of 1.72% [58] 3. Recent Important Events - The National Energy Administration released guidelines for 2025 energy work, emphasizing the construction of a new power system and coal power upgrades [61] - Shanxi Province government issued a notice for safety production in 2025, focusing on enhancing mining safety and technology [63]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|行业周报 通信 2025 年 03 月 01 日 通信 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 49% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 通信 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《IDC 行业深度：DeepSeek 加速 国产算力链形成闭环，价值网络有望 井喷》，2025.2.25 2.《DeepSeek 打破 scaling law，国 产 基 础 设 施 打 造 价 值 网 络 》， 2025.2.22 3.《DeepSeek 加速基础设施和商业 模式成熟》，2025.2.15 4.《DeepSeek 快速渗透，商业模式 优势加速基础设施爆发》，2025.2.8 5.《DeepSeek，中国算力模式胜出 的加速器》，2025.2.5 DeepSeek 开源的杀伤力 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 1.投资策略 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1.1 行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The low-altitude industry is in its early stages, characterized by a combination of rule establishment, policy support, and technological innovation, with the potential to reach a market size of 10 trillion yuan [4][20] - The company is positioned as a leader in the AI and low-altitude sectors, leveraging its resources and market mechanisms to drive growth and innovation [5][9] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The low-altitude economy in China reached 505.95 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 33.8%, and is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026 [4][32] - AI is considered the core of the low-altitude industry, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs significantly [4][46] - The company has signed over 15 strategic cooperation agreements in low-altitude regions, indicating strong market demand and potential for nationwide standard-setting [6] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to be 3.257 billion yuan in 2024, 4.311 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.174 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.5%, 32.3%, and 43.2% respectively [10][32] - Net profit is expected to reach 352 million yuan in 2024, 490 million yuan in 2025, and 809 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 2.7%, 39.3%, and 65.1% respectively [10][32] Distinct Perspectives from the Market - The company is redefined as a generative AI application company rather than a traditional remote sensing satellite application company, with potential for subscription-based revenue models [11] - The company is actively leading the upgrade of business models in the low-altitude sector, moving towards an AI SaaS enterprise model [11] - The company possesses comprehensive capabilities in IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS for low-altitude operations, positioning it well for future growth [11][12] Market Catalysts - The acceleration of low-altitude infrastructure support policies and the signing of strategic cooperation agreements are key factors that could drive the company's growth [14]

[Table_Main] 宏观专题 证券分析师 张浩 核心观点：全国两会即将召开，地方两会、集体调研及集体学习是重要前瞻信号， 地方两会聚焦扩内需、AI 及 AI+、对外开放及改革；集体学习关注提振消费和改 善营商环境，集体调研则侧重不同，经济大省重视新质生产力发展，化债重点省份 则关注高质量发展。 结合前瞻信号，我们提示全国两会关注三个方面，经济增长目标或维持 5%，提振 消费是重中之重，财政货币与各项产业、区域、环保等政策协同配合助力广义财政 扩张是政策发力关键。关注体制机制改革的重要牵引作用，统一全国大市场、民营 经济高质量发展、深化国资国企改革和改善消费环境、营商环境是四个重点方向。 2025 年产业主题关注五大领域：AI 及 AI+、品质消费、新型城镇化、基建出海、 粮食及食品安全。 地方两会传递哪些信号？①地方两会关注"扩内需"，聚焦提振消费行动和扩大有 效投资。②产业发展方面，地方政府工作报告主要聚焦标准提升促进传统产业提质 升级和通过"AI+"发展新质生产力两个方面。③对外开放关注贸易出口、资本出 海、吸引外资和服务消费。④改革方面，地方政府工作报告主要聚焦（1）统一大 市场、（2）推进民营经 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has transitioned from the "software era" to the "intelligent era," focusing on digital transformation in manufacturing for over 40 years, with a steady revenue growth of over 10% annually in the last three years [6][14]. - The company achieved a net profit of 150 million yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [23]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on global manufacturing shifts, leveraging its extensive experience in the manufacturing sector and a comprehensive industrial software product matrix [6][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, founded in 1982 in Taiwan, has expanded its operations from Taiwan to mainland China and Southeast Asia, focusing on manufacturing ERP and now offering a full-stack industrial software layout [14][15]. - It has over 50,000 clients and maintains a leading market share in manufacturing ERP products in mainland China [14][39]. 2. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 2.228 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [23]. - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.558 billion, 2.990 billion, and 3.494 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 14.82%, 16.90%, and 16.84% [6][24]. 3. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leader in the IDC's evaluation of digital factory solution providers in China, focusing on sectors such as electronics, semiconductors, and automotive parts [6][39]. - The company is enhancing its AI capabilities through the Athena platform, which is expected to drive significant growth in AI applications and customer engagement [6][39]. 4. Product and Service Offerings - The company has developed a comprehensive industrial software product matrix, covering digital management, research and design, production control, and AIoT services [17][39]. - The introduction of AI-integrated products, such as the new generation PLM system and Chat CAD, aims to enhance operational efficiency and product quality [46][47]. 5. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing digital transformation in manufacturing, with a strong focus on AI and intelligent manufacturing solutions [6][39]. - The strategic partnerships and continuous innovation in AI applications are anticipated to further enhance the company's market position and revenue growth [6][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the food and beverage sector, emphasizing the importance of low-positioned investment opportunities due to favorable policy expectations [5]. - The white liquor sector is expected to see a valuation recovery driven by improved consumption policies and market adjustments by major companies [10]. - The beer sector faces short-term performance pressure but is anticipated to benefit from structural upgrades as consumer demand improves [11]. - The dairy sector is projected to recover gradually, with a focus on high-end and diversified products [12]. - The snack food sector is expected to maintain growth potential due to channel evolution and the emergence of new consumption patterns [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The white liquor sector is experiencing a recovery trend, with major companies adjusting market supply to stabilize prices [10]. - The beer sector's performance is under pressure, but structural upgrades are expected to continue as consumer demand improves [11]. - The dairy sector is focusing on high-end products and diversified offerings, with a gradual recovery anticipated [12]. 2. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 0.09% against the index's 1.00% rise [17]. - Various sub-sectors within food and beverage showed mixed performance, with some segments like white liquor and dairy experiencing gains, while others like soft drinks and snacks faced declines [21]. 3. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks price movements in various segments, including white liquor, beer, and dairy products, indicating fluctuations in market prices and production volumes [30][36][40]. - The average price of fresh milk and other dairy products has shown slight variations, reflecting market dynamics [40]. 4. Company Announcements - Notable announcements include share reduction plans by Dongpeng Beverage and financial adjustments by other companies in the sector [61]. 5. Upcoming Events - Key upcoming events include shareholder meetings for various companies, indicating ongoing corporate governance activities within the sector [63].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage (02460.HK) [1] Core Views - China Resources Beverage has established itself as the second-largest packaged water company and the largest drinking purified water company in China, with market shares of 18.4% and 32.7% respectively in 2023 [4][16] - The company is expanding its beverage categories, achieving significant market shares in tea, juice, and coffee beverages, and is progressing towards a multi-category development strategy [4][16] - The report anticipates revenue growth driven by increased self-production rates and a reduction in service fees, alongside national expansion and the development of the beverage segment [4][22] Company Overview - China Resources Beverage has been deeply involved in the water beverage industry for decades, gradually expanding its beverage categories [4][13] - The company has a clear and stable shareholding structure, with its controlling shareholder, China Resources Group, being a state-owned diversified holding enterprise [4][17] - The management team has extensive industry experience, which aids in the execution of strategic initiatives [4][19] Packaging Water Market - The packaging water industry is experiencing stable growth, driven by increasing health awareness and demand for bottled water [4][30] - The market size for packaged water in China grew from 152.6 billion to 215 billion yuan from 2018 to 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1% [4][34] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a stable oligopoly, with China Resources Beverage holding a significant market share in the purified water segment [4][31] Financial Analysis - The company's revenue increased from 113.4 billion yuan in 2021 to 135.15 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.2% [4][22] - The beverage segment has shown remarkable growth, with revenues rising from 5.22 billion yuan in 2021 to 10.68 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 43% [4][22] - The report projects revenues of 143.3 billion, 154.2 billion, and 167 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 16.2 billion, 19.9 billion, and 23.2 billion yuan [4][22]