[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 计算机 2025 年 04 月 19 日 计算机 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 李佩京 资格编号：S0120524090004 邮箱：lipj＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 1.《历次外部冲击后的信创股价复 盘》，2025.4.15 2.《"国产化"，风云再起》，2025.4.5 3.《IDC：供需格局改善，AIDC 开启 行业新周期》，2025.3.31 4.《中科星图："小米造车式创新"效 果显现， AI+低空应用场景加速落 地》，2025.3.30 市场表现 -27% -13% 0% 13% 27% 40% 54% 67% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 5.《GPT-4o 原生图像告别"AI 味"， 进阶为生产力工具》，2025.3.29 Agent：从"单点工具"到"数 字员工" [Table_Summary] 投资要 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|金融产品专题 深度报告 2025 年 4 月 18 日 金融产品专题 证券分析师 温瑞鹏 资格编号：S0120523060004 邮箱：wenrp＠tebon.com.cn 路景仪 资格编号：S0120524070002 邮箱：lujy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 金融产品专题 金融地产行业基金：证券为矛，银行 为盾，保险攻守兼备 ——主题基金系列研究之五 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 证券、保险和银行板块的特点：1）证券：券商行情涨幅较快，因此需要左侧布局。 根据历史复盘，可以关注经济表现较弱，高层级会议召开前夕，同时关注估值以及 市场情绪；2）保险：受投资端和负债端影响，投资端受益于利率上行，板块的波 动性弱于券商；3）银行：拥有一定的红利属性，不同类型银行在部分年份里表现 差异较大。 证券、保险和银行板块的相关指标：年化波动率及最大回撤：银行<保险<证券； 过去 1 年，银行指数夏普比率较高；3 年维度上看，保险指数的夏普比率高于银 行；信息比率：过去 1 年、3 年，保险>证券>银行。因此，长期持有的 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业月报 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 煤炭开采 沪深300 煤炭 优于大市（上调） 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报：煤价底部企稳，回购 增持彰显板块价值》，2025.4.12 2.《煤炭周报：成本支撑显现，煤价 止跌企稳》，2025.4.6 3.《中国旭阳集团（1907.HK）：传 统业务显韧性，新兴领域迎发展》， 2025.4.3 4.《兖矿能源（600188.SH）：成本 管 控 优 异 ， 成 长 空 间 广 阔 》 ， 2025.3.30 5.《煤炭周报：红利价值不改，把握 低位布局》，2025.3.30 煤炭行业月报：3 月进口同比转 负，静待后续需求改善 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 煤炭开采 202 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业月报 煤炭 优于大市（上调） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 1.《煤炭周报：煤价底部企稳，回购 增持彰显板块价值》，2025.4.12 2.《煤炭周报：成本支撑显现，煤价 止跌企稳》，2025.4.6 3.《中国旭阳集团（1907.HK）：传 统业务显韧性，新兴领域迎发展》， 2025.4.3 4.《兖矿能源（600188.SH）：成本 管 控 优 异 ， 成 长 空 间 广 阔 》 ， 2025.3.30 5.《煤炭周报：红利价值不改，把握 低位布局》，2025.3.30 煤炭行业月报：3 月进口同比转 负，静待后续需求改善 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 煤炭开采 2025 年 04 月 18 日 国内煤炭生产维持高位，进口规模有所下降。供给情况：国内方面，3 月份国内原 煤累计产量 4.41 亿吨,同比增长 9.6%。1-3 月累计产量 12.03 亿吨，同比增长 8.1%。进口方面，3 月国内煤炭进口量 0.39 亿吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 9.481 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.59%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 891 million yuan, up 15.26% year-on-year [5] - The company's profitability remains stable, with a gross margin of 30.08% and a net margin of 11.94% in 2024 [5] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the civil explosives industry, benefiting from high demand in regions like Xinjiang and ongoing asset injections from its major shareholder [6][8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with a 1-month absolute return of -5.63% and a 3-month relative return of 4.03% [4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.782 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.91% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.68% [5] - The company’s R&D expenses have increased, reflecting a commitment to enhancing technological innovation and core competitiveness [5] Business Segments - Civil explosives revenue reached 2.741 billion yuan in 2024, up 6.61% year-on-year, with a production capacity of 765,500 tons [5] - The blasting service segment generated 5.104 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 8.25%, with new contracts significantly exceeding previous years [5] - The renewable energy segment reported a revenue of 777 million yuan, down 11.32% year-on-year [5] Growth Drivers - The company is leveraging both organic growth and acquisitions to drive performance, with significant contributions from recent acquisitions in the civil explosives sector [6] - The company is expanding its international presence, with operations in various regions including Namibia and Mongolia [6] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.105 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24% [8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.42 yuan, with continued growth anticipated through 2027 [8]

Group 1: Manufacturing's Role in Economic Growth - Manufacturing investment accounted for over 30% of fixed asset investment from 2007 to 2017, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8% from 2017 to 2024, surpassing the 4.3% CAGR of total fixed asset investment[9][10] - Despite a decline in manufacturing's share of total GDP from over 30% in 2010 to less than 25% in 2024, its share of industrial GDP increased from around 80% to nearly 83% during the same period, indicating ongoing growth in manufacturing output[14][16] - The manufacturing sector has transitioned from a cyclical variable to a counter-cyclical one, driven by structural changes in demand and supply shocks, allowing it to stabilize economic growth[6][30] Group 2: Investment Trends and Drivers - Manufacturing investment has shown sustained high growth, particularly in high-tech sectors, while also upgrading traditional manufacturing and enhancing digital and green transformations[6][34] - Key drivers of manufacturing investment include the reconstruction of industrial foundations, stabilization of key industries, digital and green technological upgrades, and the promotion of capacity iteration through improved standards[6][39] - The manufacturing sector is increasingly focused on meeting new demand from energy transitions and green development, necessitating new capital investments to align supply with evolving market needs[30][31] Group 3: Risks and Policy Implications - Risks to manufacturing growth include insufficient macroeconomic policy support, global supply chain disruptions, and trade frictions that could hinder industrial development[6][34] - Recent policies have aimed to support manufacturing through technological upgrades and supply chain security, reflecting a shift in focus towards enhancing production capabilities and ensuring supply safety[33][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Without considering the impact of tariff issues, the convertible bond market might have entered a gradually calm April. However, the "tariff storm" accelerated the market adjustment, but also led to the early resolution of the high - valuation pressure on convertible bonds. After the adjustment, the cost - performance of convertible bonds has been restored to a certain extent. In the future, it is recommended to gradually allocate convertible bonds in small positions, with a style preference of value first and then growth [4]. - Industry investment should focus on three main lines: increased domestic demand policies, a new global game equilibrium, and the oversold rebound of the technology sector [4][30][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. "巨石"之后，转债宜徐徐图之 - **Reduction of positions by the allocation side**: Based on the convertible bond holding data of institutions on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges and the subscription and redemption data of convertible bond ETFs, the allocation side has been gradually reducing positions in convertible bonds. For example, since February, there have been significant single - day scale declines in the subscription and redemption of convertible bond ETF products, and the convertible bond holding scale of institutions such as public funds and insurance companies has also decreased [4][8]. - **Equity market style shift**: Since late March, the equity market style has gradually shifted from growth to value. The performance gap between the CSI 300 Index and the Guozheng 2000 Index has gradually narrowed. With less than 50% of the performance disclosed, the short - term preference for high - elasticity convertible bonds may be suppressed [4]. - **Subtle changes in the convertible bond market**: The issuance side has accelerated, with 10 convertible bonds announcing issuance and 5 announcing listing dates from March to the first week of April, with a total issuance scale of over 10 billion yuan. Some convertible bond companies have planned to participate in themes such as AI and robots, and many individual bonds have successfully promoted conversion in March. The scale of theme - related convertible bonds announcing forced redemptions this year accounts for nearly 50% of all announced forced - redemption convertible bonds [4]. Tariff Accelerates Market Adjustment - **Tariff impact on the market**: The "tariff storm" led to a rapid adjustment of the A - share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by more than 7% on the first trading day, and the price and valuation of convertible bonds were quickly compressed. However, the policy response was rapid, and the equity market quickly stabilized. At the same time, the price pressure of convertible bonds was cleared, and the cost - performance of the products was restored to a certain extent [4]. Current Cost - Performance of Convertible Bonds - **Overall market situation**: Since the market recovery on April 8, the index has returned to the level of early February. The weighted premium rate and price median have also completed part of the repair process after the tariff shock. For example, the 22% weighted premium rate in the 90 - 110 range corresponding to 122 yuan has basically completed the repair [4][23]. - **Industry performance**: The TMT and other growth sectors that performed well previously have shown a gradual recovery trend. The valuations of sectors such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and non - ferrous metals have fallen to low quantiles [4][25]. - **New bond performance**: Due to the wait - and - see attitude of the liability side and the volatile equity market, the performance of new bonds on the first day of listing has been weak recently, which may have certain allocation cost - performance [4]. Outlook for the Future - **Investment strategy**: It is recommended to gradually try some cost - effective convertible bond varieties in small positions, with a style preference of value first and then growth [4][30]. - **Industry investment lines**: - **Domestic demand policy reinforcement**: Exclude sectors with excessive increases or high external demand in the consumption sector. Recommend expanding domestic demand (traditional consumption, new domestic - brand consumption, duty - free) and broad fiscal policies (construction, building materials, finance). Suggest paying attention to individual bonds such as Hefeng Convertible Bond and Zhongchong Convertible Bond 2 [4][30]. - **New global game equilibrium**: Chinese products flowing to countries with demand gaps are beneficial to global trade, such as oil and gas transportation [30]. - **Oversold rebound of the technology sector**: Many TMT stocks' valuations have fallen back to or close to the level before the spring rally. There are about 182 stocks with a year - to - date increase or decrease within ±3%, mainly distributed in semiconductor, software development, and other secondary industries. Suggest paying attention to individual bonds such as Lingyi Convertible Bond, Yirui Convertible Bond, and Zhenhua Convertible Bond [4][31].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 固定收益专题 专题报告 2025 年 04 月 16 日 固定收益专题 证券分析师 吕品 资格编号：S0120524050005 邮箱：lvpin＠tebon.com.cn 苏恩民 资格编号：S0120524120001 邮箱：suem＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 固定收益专题 信用债行情或"由短及长" —— 4 月信用策略 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 短端信用利差快速压缩。3 月以来，受资金面波动、权益市场、关税政策影响，利 率债市场大幅波动。对比来看，信用债市场相对稳定，信用利差仅在 3 月初小幅上 行后就重回下行趋势，短端表现更好：截至 4 月 11 日，1Y、3Y、5Y 中短票收益 率较 3 月初分别下行 28BP、18BP、12BP，信用利差分别压缩 17BP、12BP、 4BP；期限利差小幅走阔，AAA 中票 5Y-3Y 利差为 12BP，较 3 月初走阔 6BP， 处于近三年 16.8%的历史分位。对比来看，关税政策影响下 4 月初利率快速下行， 信用债表现弱于长久期利率债：4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading enterprise in satellite core networks and is expected to benefit from the growth of its overseas business [4][5]. - The recent signing of a framework agreement for a $1.5 billion project in the Democratic Republic of Congo is anticipated to drive revenue growth [4]. - The company is actively optimizing its overseas market layout, with increasing demand for optical infrastructure globally [4][5]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected total revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated at 949 million, 1,251 million, and 1,588 million yuan respectively, with a net profit forecast of 26 million, 113 million, and 176 million yuan [5][7]. - The expected year-on-year revenue growth rates are 66.1% for 2023, 7.3% for 2024, 31.8% for 2025, and 26.9% for 2026 [7]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 40.5% in 2023 to 52.5% by 2026 [7]. Project Highlights - The company has secured multiple overseas projects, including significant contracts in Angola, Mauritania, and Bangladesh, indicating a robust international presence [4][5]. - The satellite internet sector is showing initial demand, with the company being a key supplier for the "Tiantong-1" project core network [5]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative increase compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute growth rates of 5.60%, 21.90%, and 6.35% over the past months [3][4].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 买入（维持） 所属行业：通信/通信设备 当前价格(元)：33.18 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 1.《震有科技(688418.SH)：卫星核心 网领先企业，有望受益出海业务增 长》，2025.3.13 震有科技(688418.SH) 2025 年 04 月 15 日 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 沪深300对比 1M 2M 3M -26% 0% 26% 51% 77% 103% 129% 154% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 震有科技 沪深300 绝对涨幅(%) 5.60 21.90 6.35 相对涨幅(%) 11.72 26.41 7.90 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 震有科技（688418.SH）：刚果 总包项目落成，海外业绩增长启 动 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 事件： 4 月 15 日，震有科技发布《关于签署总包工程框架协议的公告》。公司与刚 果民主共和国光纤公司签订了关于"刚果民主共和国国家骨干光纤宽带网络项目" ...