财务报表分析和预测 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|--------|-------|-------------------------|-------|------------------------|-------|-------------------------|-------|-------| | 主要财务指标 | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 利润表 ( 百万元 ) | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 每股指标 ( 元 ) | | | | | 营业总收入 | | 3,134 3,438 4,070 4,828 | | | | 每股收益 | | | 3.23 4.13 4.95 6.00 | | 营业成本 | | 155 189 224 241 | | | | 每股净资产 | | | 13.49 17.65 22.60 28.59 | | 毛利率 % | 95.1% | 94.5% | 94 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|行业周报 农林牧渔 2024年4月2日 农林牧渔 猪价震荡上涨，均重延续上行 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 赵雅斐 资格编号：S0120523070006  生猪：猪价震荡上涨，均重继续上行。1）周内先涨后跌，猪价震荡上涨。上周猪 邮箱：zhaoyf＠tebon.com.cn 价先涨后跌，周前期头部企业主动拉涨，叠加部分地区二育增量，猪价上涨；周后 市场表现 期需求端持续低迷，多数屠企减量收猪，下压猪价回落。3月29日猪价15.11元/ 公斤，周环比+0.87%。2）屠企宰量低位运行，冻品库存率略降。近期终端消费表 沪深300 现低迷，鲜品走货不佳，屠宰量低位运行。3月29日涌益样本屠企屠宰量12.3万 4% 0% 头，周环比+0.23%。近期猪价上行，屠企陆续出库往期冻品，冻品库存略降。3月 -4% 22日全国冻品库容率18.35%，周环比-0.28pct。3）压栏产能陆续释放，生猪均重 -7% 延续上涨。集团场持续滚动出栏，同时因猪价阶段性高位，散户压栏大猪出栏积极 -11% -15% 性提升，带动生猪交易均重上涨。3月 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司首次覆盖 西部矿业(601168.SH) 2024年04月02日 西部矿业（601168.SH）：玉龙 买入（首次） 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 铜矿发力改扩建，西部矿业龙头 当前价格(元)：19.22 腾飞 证券分析师 翟堃 投资要点 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 西部矿业：西部地区矿企龙头。公司是中国第二大铅锌精矿生产商、第五大铜精矿 张崇欣  生产商，主要从事铜、铅、锌、铁、镍、钒、钼等基本有色金属、黑色金属的采选 资格编号：S0120522100003 冶、贸易等业务，以及黄金、白银等稀贵金属和硫精矿等产品的生产及销售。截至 邮箱：zhangcx＠tebon.com.cn 2024年1月31日，西部矿业集团有限公司持有公司31.27%的股份，为公司控股 研究助理 股东，实控人为青海省国资委。截至2023年报，公司全资持有或控股并经营十五 谷瑜 座矿山，其中，有色金属矿山6座、铁及铁多金属矿山8座、盐湖矿山1座，公 邮箱：guyu5＠tebon.com.cn 司绝大部分收入来自铜类产品 （铜精矿 ...

程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱： chengqiang@tebon.com.cn 年 月 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-------|------------------------------| | 宏观点评 | PMI | | 当前三大亮点和未来三大关注点 | | | | —— | | | 证券分析师 | | | | [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点：3 月 PMI 在季节性回升的基础上，叠加复工复产、重大项目推动和外 需支撑，建筑业 PMI 以及小型企业 PMI 景气度超预期回升。一般来说，3 月 PMI 存在季节性上行，但是此次上行幅度超市场预期，为更好分析数据超预期原因， 我们梳理了 3 月 PMI 数据的三大亮点以及未来的三大关注点。三大亮点分别为： 产需视角下，3 月供需均呈现改善状态，需求不足问题边际小幅改善；结构视角 下，大中小型企业分化程度减弱，小型企业景气度回升明显；非制造业视角下， 复工复产加速+重大项目推动建筑业景气度回 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The tightening cycle is nearing its end, supporting the long-term value of gold and silver prices [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Gold prices have increased, with Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au9999 closing at 528 CNY/gram, a weekly change of +3.2% [9][13] - COMEX silver prices rose by 1.0% to 25.1 USD/ounce [9] - Industrial metal prices generally increased, with SHFE copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel futures closing at +0.3%, +1.6%, +3.6%, -1.3%, +0.5%, and -2.8% respectively [4] Precious Metals - Gold's spot price rose, with a weekly change of +3.2% and a monthly change of +9.9% [13] - The gold ETF holdings decreased, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [13] Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased to 72,530 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of +0.3% and a monthly change of +5.5% [25] - Aluminum prices rose to 19,710 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of +1.6% and a monthly change of +4.9% [35] - Lead prices increased to 16,815 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of +3.6% [49] - Zinc prices decreased to 20,945 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of -1.3% [53] - Tin prices rose to 228,100 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of +0.5% [57] - Nickel prices fell to 130,920 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of -2.8% [62] Rare Earths and Tungsten - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides decreased by 0.6% [71] Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices increased slightly by 0.7%, while lithium carbonate prices fell [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the non-ferrous metals sector may yield excess returns as the global monetary environment shifts from tight to loose, with a focus on precious metals, industrial metals, and new materials [5]

Economic Recovery - Traditional manufacturing industry chain production recovery is better than high-end manufacturing, with 19 industries showing cumulative year-on-year growth in industrial added value above the five-year average[2] - Cumulative year-on-year profit growth in 11 industries exceeds the five-year average, indicating production recovery is stronger than profit recovery[2] Profit and Production Analysis - In February, industrial enterprises' added value growth was 7%, close to the five-year average of 7.36%, while profit growth was 10.2%, significantly lower than the five-year average of 21.74%[55] - The recovery in production is primarily seen in traditional industries such as black and non-ferrous metals, and consumer manufacturing (food, textiles, and apparel)[2] Employment and Inflation - The U.S. labor market remains strong, with initial jobless claims decreasing, and employment numbers expected to increase steadily in March[4] - February's U.S. PCE inflation was 0.3%, aligning with market expectations, while core PCE inflation also met expectations at 0.3%[75] Market Trends - In March, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.86%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 5.57%, indicating market volatility and sector rotation[58] - The advanced manufacturing sector showed a strong performance with a 4.09% increase, while technology sectors lagged behind[63] Investment Recommendations - Focus on short-term rebounds in leading consumer electronics and long-term investments in cyclical sectors such as agriculture, insurance, and new energy vehicles[16] - The report suggests that the high-end manufacturing sector's supply-demand gap may have peaked, with potential profit improvements expected[21]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Inflation - The Federal Reserve has adopted a hawkish stance, indicating that interest rate cuts are not imminent, with a focus on inflation trends[2] - Recent core PCE data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures[11] - The market's expectation for a rate cut on May 1 is only 4%, while the probability for a cut on June 12 is 61%[11] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - In March, major global stock markets saw positive performance, with the DAX, FTSE 100, and CAC40 rising by 4.6%, 4.2%, and 3.5% respectively[32] - The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, outperformed larger indices with a March increase of 3.39%[33] - The Japanese stock market is expected to face volatility due to fluctuations in the yen exchange rate[12] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation and geopolitical tensions that could lead to market volatility[3][74][75] - The global economic outlook remains uncertain, with potential negative impacts if economic recovery falls short of expectations[60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [2] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing performance differentiation, with notable highlights in certain segments [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring annual and quarterly performance reports as the industry enters a seasonal lull [12] - The white liquor sector is projected to stabilize in production while revenue and profit are expected to grow steadily [12] - The beer sector is undergoing structural upgrades, with a focus on high-end products despite some differentiation among leading companies [5] - The snack food segment is benefiting from channel expansion and strong performance from leading companies [5] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The white liquor sector saw a decline of 0.31% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.10% [12] - In 2023, the national white liquor industry achieved a total production of 6.29 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%, while sales revenue increased by 9.7% to 756.3 billion yuan [12] - The beer sector's production in January-February 2024 was 5.666 million kiloliters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [12] 2. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks price data for various segments, including white liquor, beer, and dairy products, indicating price stability and slight fluctuations in certain categories [32][44] - The average price of fresh milk was reported at 3.53 yuan per kilogram, showing a decrease of 0.56% [44] 3. Investment Recommendations - For the white liquor sector, key recommendations include Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, with a focus on the 1,000 yuan price range [6][15] - In the beer sector, recommended companies include Qingdao Beer, Chongqing Beer, and China Resources Beer [6][15] - The snack food segment highlights companies like Salted Fish and Jin Zai Foods, which are expected to benefit from channel expansion and product innovation [6][15] 4. Valuation Situation - As of March 29, the overall valuation of the food and beverage sector stood at 25.07x, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 11.66x [23] - The highest valuations were noted in the seasoning and fermentation segment at 36.13x, while dairy products had a lower valuation of 18.13x [23] 5. Fund Flow - Northbound capital showed significant activity in leading companies such as Wuliangye and Guizhou Moutai, with notable increases in holdings [27] - Salted Fish saw the largest increase in holdings among Northbound funds, while Qiaqia Foods experienced a decrease [27][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit due to the elimination of substantial asset impairment losses from 2022, with a year-on-year growth of 113.53% in net profit for 2023 [4][5] - The company has made progress in resolving industry competition issues, which is expected to enhance its operational efficiency and profitability [5] - The company achieved record production levels for lead, zinc, and germanium products in 2023, indicating strong operational performance [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 21.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.24%, and a gross profit of 3.53 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year [4][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.43 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 113.53% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.47 billion yuan, up 143.37% year-on-year [4][6] - The company’s production capacity includes 420,000 tons/year for lead and zinc metals and 60 tons/year for germanium products, with production volumes for lead and zinc metals increasing by 7.3% and 20.0% respectively in 2023 [4][5] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 22.4 billion yuan, 23.0 billion yuan, and 23.2 billion yuan for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.69 billion yuan, 2.21 billion yuan, and 2.27 billion yuan [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.33 yuan, 0.43 yuan, and 0.45 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.13x, 13.09x, and 12.72x [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance and textile sectors, highlighting strong performance and recovery potential in consumer demand [4][28]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector shows robust performance with leading companies like Midea Group, Haier, and Hisense demonstrating resilience and high dividend payouts. In 2023, Midea Group, Haier, and Hisense had dividend payout ratios of 62%, 55% (including buybacks), and 49% respectively [9][10]. - The textile and apparel sector is witnessing a healthy recovery in sportswear, with major brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning reporting significant revenue growth. Anta's revenue increased by 16.2% and net profit by 34.9% in 2023 [21][22]. Summary by Relevant Sections Home Appliances - The overall performance in domestic and international sales is steady, with Stone Technology and Haier showing significant profit improvements. Stone Technology reported a revenue of 8.654 billion yuan, up 30.55%, and a net profit of 2.051 billion yuan, up 73.32% in 2023 [11][13]. - Midea Group achieved a revenue of 373.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, with a net profit of 33.72 billion yuan, up 14.1% [14]. - Haier's revenue reached 261.43 billion yuan, growing by 7.3%, with a net profit of 16.597 billion yuan, up 12.8% [13]. Textile and Apparel - The sportswear segment is performing well, with Anta Sports reporting a revenue increase of 16.2% and a net profit increase of 34.9% in 2023 [21]. - Li Ning's revenue was 27.598 billion yuan, up 7.0%, but net profit decreased by 21.6% [22]. - The contract manufacturing leader, Shenzhou International, saw a revenue decline of 10% but maintained stable net profit [26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key areas for investment: 1. Stone Technology in the home appliance sector due to its global market share growth in robotic vacuum cleaners [28]. 2. Midea Group and Haier for their resilient domestic and international positioning [28]. 3. In the textile sector, Shenzhou International and Anta Sports are highlighted for their stable performance and growth potential [28].