[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 铜陵有色(000630.SZ) 2024 年 08 月 28 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：3.05 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 谷瑜 资格编号：S0120524080002 邮箱：guyu5＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 铜陵有色 沪深300 -20% 0% 20% 40% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|-------|--------|--------| | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -0.97 | -13.11 | -22.50 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 2.63 | -8.25 | -12.90 | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《铜行业跟踪：24Q2 铜价创新高， Q3TC 骤 降 ， 供 需 持 续 紧 张 》， 2024.7.11 2.《 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhongtai Co., Ltd. (300435.SZ) [2] Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with revenue at 1.368 billion yuan, down 18.18% year-on-year, and net profit at 123 million yuan, down 33% [3] - The decrease in revenue is attributed to a high base in the previous year and a delay in the delivery of high-margin overseas orders, leading to short-term pressure on the equipment business [3] - Despite the short-term challenges, the company has a strong order backlog, with orders increasing by 33.5% year-on-year, and overseas markets are expected to drive revenue and margin recovery [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The stock has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a 26% decline [2] Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company achieved operating income of 1.368 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.18%, and a net profit of 123 million yuan, a decline of 33% [3] - The equipment sales revenue was 498 million yuan, down 9.6%, with a gross margin of 30.5%, a decrease of 4.6 percentage points [3] - The cash flow from operating activities was 204 million yuan, an increase of 86.1% year-on-year [3] Order Backlog and Market Outlook - As of June 30, 2024, the company had an order backlog of 2.132 billion yuan, up 33.5% year-on-year, with over 30% of these orders from overseas markets [3] - The company has been expanding its presence in international markets, benefiting from the global olefin investment boom [3] Cost and Expense Analysis - The company’s period expense ratio was 6.93%, an increase of 1.84 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising management expenses [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report adjusts the revenue forecast for 2024-2026, expecting revenues of 2.881 billion yuan, 3.399 billion yuan, and 3.789 billion yuan, with growth rates of -5.5%, 18%, and 11.5% respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 296 million yuan, 405 million yuan, and 525 million yuan, with growth rates of -15.4%, 36.7%, and 29.8% respectively [4]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 永泰能源(600157.SH) 2024 年 08 月 28 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：煤炭/煤炭开采 当前价格(元)：1.11 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 薛磊 资格编号：S0120524020001 邮箱：xuelei＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 永泰能源 沪深300 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|-------|-------|--------| | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 0.91 | -7.50 | -15.27 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 3.96 | -3.19 | -6.18 | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《永泰能源事件点评：资源规模扩张， 业绩增长可期》，2024.8.8 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company maintains its leading position in the photovoltaic film market, with its material business continuing to grow [1][4] - In H1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.764 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 928 million yuan, up 4.95% from the same period last year [4][5] - The company's photovoltaic film sales volume reached 1.389 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 43.61%, while revenue from this segment was 9.879 billion yuan, up 3.79% [4][5] Financial Performance - The company reported a quarterly revenue of 5.321 billion yuan in Q1 and 5.442 billion yuan in Q2 of 2024 [4] - The electronic materials business also showed growth, with sales volume of photosensitive dry film reaching 7.4 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 35.83%, and revenue of 275 million yuan, up 26.92% [4][5] - The aluminum-plastic film business is entering a sales ramp-up phase, with sales volume of 5.606 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 35.54%, and revenue of 5.9 million yuan, up 26.52% [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.942 billion yuan, 2.660 billion yuan, and 3.032 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][7] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 19.72, 14.40, and 12.63 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [6][7]

Group 1: Financial Condition Index Overview - The Financial Condition Index (FCI) measures the tightness or looseness of the financial environment, reflecting dollar liquidity[2] - The Chicago National Financial Condition Index (NFCI) includes a weighted average of 105 financial activity indicators and three sub-indices: risk, credit, and leverage[21] - As of August 16, the NFCI remained unchanged at -0.52, indicating relatively loose market liquidity despite high benchmark interest rates[45] Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - Recent weak U.S. inflation and employment data, along with dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, have initiated rate cut trading[2] - The market has priced in a 141% probability of a rate cut in September, with implied overnight rates at 4.98%[8] - The risk, credit, and leverage indicators have all shown higher levels of looseness compared to historical averages, confirming the ongoing rate cut trading[4] Group 3: Implications for Investors - Investors should use the FCI to gauge current market conditions and make informed asset allocation decisions rather than predicting specific future trends[42] - The NFCI has a strong negative correlation of -0.91 with the S&P 500 index, indicating its effectiveness in reflecting stock market performance[39] - The Bloomberg Financial Condition Index (BFCI) is updated in real-time, allowing investors to quickly assess market disturbances[34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 was under pressure due to a high base effect from the previous year, with revenue declining by 13.64% year-on-year to 7.817 billion yuan and net profit decreasing by 12.51% to 495 million yuan [4] - Despite the short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for the company remains positive, particularly following the acquisition by China National Pharmaceutical Group [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024H1, the company achieved revenue of 7.817 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.64% year-on-year, and a net profit of 495 million yuan, down 12.51% [4] - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 3.61 billion yuan, a decline of 21.94%, and a net profit of 248 million yuan, down 25% [4] - The company's core products, including Huoxiang Zhengqi Oral Liquid and Jizhi Syrup, experienced significant growth in the first half of 2023, with year-on-year growth rates of 81.66% and 149.06% respectively [4] - The company’s pharmaceutical manufacturing segment reported sales of 5.079 billion yuan, down 19.77%, while the health segment saw a revenue increase of 79.63% to 265 million yuan [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are 984 million yuan, 1.217 billion yuan, and 1.498 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12, 10, and 8 times [5] - The report emphasizes the company's potential for sustained improvement under the new ownership structure [5] Market Performance Comparison - The company's stock has underperformed relative to the CSI 300 index, with absolute declines of 17.92% over the past month and 43.17% over the past three months [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [2][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of approximately 3.908 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.77%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.43% to about 244 million yuan [3][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.8 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 230 million yuan, which accounts for 94.21% of the net profit for the period [3][4]. - The company's decorative materials business showed strong growth, with revenue reaching approximately 3.282 billion yuan, up 29.01% year-on-year, while the custom home business saw a slight decline of 11.41% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the second quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of about 2.425 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.74%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 27.34% to approximately 156 million yuan [3][4]. - The company’s operating cash flow showed significant recovery, with a net profit margin of 6.25%, down 2.60 percentage points year-on-year [4][6]. Business Segments - The decorative materials segment generated approximately 2.146 billion yuan in revenue, a 41.45% increase year-on-year, while the brand usage fee revenue decreased by 11.59% [4]. - The custom home segment reported revenue of about 300 million yuan, a 22.04% increase, with a focus on high-end positioning and regional brand development [4]. Cost Management - The company successfully reduced its expense ratio to 6.95%, down 2.81 percentage points year-on-year, with significant reductions in management and financial expenses [4][6]. - Despite the decrease in expense ratios, credit and asset impairment losses increased by 264.11% to approximately 79 million yuan, primarily due to receivables from a subsidiary [4]. Retail Strategy - The company is accelerating the construction of a new retail model, with over 2,000 stores adopting this model, enhancing online operations to attract customers [5][6]. - The focus on multi-channel operations and the development of small B-end channels is expected to drive future growth [6].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 兴业银锡(000426.SZ) 2024 年 08 月 27 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 当前价格(元)：11.58 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谷瑜 邮箱：guyu5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 兴业银锡 沪深300 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2023-08 2023-12 2024-04 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|-------|--------|--------| | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -5.62 | -16.15 | -18.10 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -2.57 | -11.12 | -9.88 | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《兴业银锡（000426.SZ）：技改放量， 23 年归母净利大增 457%》，2024.4.30 2.《兴业银锡（000426.S ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 恒玄科技(688608.SH) 2024 年 08 月 27 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-------|--------------------------|-------|--------------------| | 买入（维持） | | 可穿戴市场需求份额双增， | | BES2800 放量可期 | | | | | | | | 所属行业：电子 / 半导体 | | | | | | 当前价格 ( 元 ) ： 151.00 | | 恒玄科技 | 2024 | 年中报点评 | 证券分析师 陈蓉芳 资格编号：S0120522060001 邮箱：chenrf＠tebon.com.cn 陈瑜熙 资格编号：S0120524010003 邮箱：chenyx5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 46% 57% 69% 恒玄科技 沪深300 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------- ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 福瑞达(600223.SH) 2024 年 08 月 27 日 增持（下调） 所属行业：美容护理/化妆品 当前价格(元)：6.05 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -23% -11% 0% 11% 23% 34% 福瑞达 沪深300 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|----------------|--------------|--------| | -46% 2023-08 \n沪深 300 对比 | 2023-12 \n1M | 2024-04 \n2M | 3M | | 绝对涨幅 (%) | -1.93 | -14.96 | -23.71 | | 相对涨幅 (%) | 1.11 | -9.93 | -15.49 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《福瑞达：23 年业绩超出此前预告， 静待化妆品新品放量》，2024.3.22 2.《福瑞达：化 ...