[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 年 月 日 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|----------------------------|--------------| | 宏观点评 | 财政部新闻发布会的八个要点 | 2024 10 12 | | | —— 2024 年 | 日发布会点评 | | 证券分析师 | | | | | [Table_Summary] | | 投资要点： 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 事件：10 月 12 日，财政部部长蓝佛安先生出席国务院新闻发布会"加大财政政 策逆周期调节力度、推动经济高质量发展"并介绍有关情况，我们认为此次新闻发 布会有八点值得关注： 1、发布会低于预期？如何理解。自 924 新政以来，市场受流动性及风险偏好的提 升影响出现了显著的上涨，市场对基本面改善的期待反映在了对一系列增量政策 的期待，财政政策成为稳增长、稳预期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the ESG utility sector [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing development of distributed photovoltaic power generation management regulations by the National Energy Administration, emphasizing the integration of these projects into the electricity market [10][11] - It notes that 81% of new renewable energy sources in 2023 are cost-competitive compared to fossil fuel alternatives, supporting the goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 [11] - The report discusses the importance of ESG financial products, with significant issuance in bonds, public funds, and bank wealth management products, indicating a growing market for sustainable investments [33][36][38] Summary by Sections Hotspot Focus - Domestic: The National Energy Administration is seeking opinions on the management of distributed photovoltaic power generation, allowing these projects to participate in the electricity market [10] - International: The International Renewable Energy Agency reports that 81% of new renewable energy is cheaper than fossil fuels, reinforcing investment in renewables [11] Policy Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a guide on green low-carbon development technologies for the dyeing industry, updating the previous version with new technologies [12] - Beijing's ecological environment bureau issued guidelines for carbon emissions trading, allowing major emitters to offset a portion of their emissions [14] ESG Performance Research - Jiangxi Hongcheng Environment Co., Ltd. aims to be a leading comprehensive environmental operator, focusing on water supply, wastewater treatment, and solid waste disposal [15] - The company has a strong ESG rating, with governance being the most weighted factor in its ESG assessment [15][16] ESG Financial Products Tracking - As of October 11, 2024, China has issued 4,882 ESG bonds with a total scale of 13.87 trillion yuan, indicating a robust market for sustainable finance [33] - The total net value of ESG public funds reached 535.63 billion yuan, with environmental protection products making up the largest share [36] Expert Opinions on ESG - Zhang Zongliang, an academic, emphasizes the integration of water, wind, and solar energy as a new path for green development, highlighting the importance of hydrogen in the new energy system [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry, specifically focusing on Huawei's database developments [1]. Core Insights - Huawei's GaussDB and openGauss databases are positioned to support the domestic database market, with a clear focus on both self-developed and open-source solutions [3][10]. - The Chinese database market is projected to reach CNY 93.029 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 12% from 2023 to 2028, driven by increasing demand for data security and domestic product competitiveness [3][17]. - GaussDB is recognized for its high availability, security, and performance, making it suitable for critical industries such as finance and telecommunications [25][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Development of GaussDB - GaussDB has evolved over 20 years, starting from internal use to becoming a key player in the database market, with significant applications in finance, insurance, and telecommunications [8][10]. - The development phases include internal use (2001-2011), productization (2011-2019), cloud and open-source initiatives (2019-2020), and ecosystem building (2021-present) [8][10]. 2. Database Architecture - GaussDB supports both distributed and primary-backup deployment, while openGauss focuses on primary-backup deployment, catering to different user needs [10][12]. - The report highlights the advantages of distributed databases in handling large data volumes and high concurrency, which are increasingly important in modern IT environments [14][18]. 3. Market Growth and Policy Support - The report emphasizes the growth potential for domestic database vendors, with increasing policy support for localization and security in data management [3][19]. - The rise of cloud computing is also noted as a significant factor driving the adoption of distributed databases [21][22]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that have established mature commercial distributions based on openGauss, as well as those providing related technical services and value-added solutions [3][4].

Economic Overview - The current economic environment faces challenges from "de-real estate" and "de-China" trends, with a strong policy strategy focusing on a "manufacturing nation" approach to counter these issues[1] - Q3 GDP growth is expected to be around 4.7%, slightly lower than the previous quarter due to a slowdown in industrial production and external pressures[5][27] Industrial Production - Industrial production is anticipated to show a slight month-on-month recovery, with September's industrial added value expected to grow by approximately 4.7% year-on-year[1][29] - The official manufacturing PMI rose by 0.7 percentage points to 49.8%, indicating a return to expansion territory for production[29] Retail Sales - Retail sales in September are projected to increase by 2.0% year-on-year, with restaurant-related sales expected to rise by 4.5% and automotive sales declining by 1.0%[2][36] - The automotive market is experiencing a rebound due to government policies supporting vehicle replacement, with a total market size of approximately 2.1 million units sold in September[36] Investment Trends - Infrastructure investment is expected to grow by 4.0% year-on-year for the first nine months of the year, supported by accelerated special bond issuance[40] - Manufacturing investment is projected to maintain a growth rate of around 8.9% year-on-year, bolstered by favorable policies and market conditions[28][40] Trade Performance - In September, exports and imports are expected to grow by 9.4% and 6.2% year-on-year, respectively, with a trade surplus of approximately $99.3 billion[2][28] - The increase in shipping rates and demand for exports is attributed to competitive pricing and improved domestic consumption[2] Inflation and Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by 0.7% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decline by 2.5%[3][28] - Key factors influencing CPI include rising pork prices, which are expected to reach around 30 yuan per kilogram by year-end[3] Financial Data - New loans in September are estimated at approximately 1.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 690 billion yuan, with a loan balance growth rate of around 8.1%[4][28] - Social financing is projected to increase by approximately 3.3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 7.9%[4][28] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy measures falling short of expectations, unexpected downturns in the real estate market, and geopolitical tensions affecting exports[4]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry, driven by the potential for a new economic cycle fueled by the development of new quality productive forces [1] Core Viewpoints - The development of new quality productive forces, centered on technological innovation, is expected to initiate a new economic cycle, with OA (Office Automation) tools playing a crucial role in enhancing enterprise management efficiency [1][7] - The combination of "Xinchuang" (domestic substitution) and AI is expected to significantly boost the growth potential of the OA market, with leading companies like Fanwei Network and Zhiyuan Interconnection poised to benefit [2] - The OA market is projected to reach RMB 34.2 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 10.42% from 2023 to 2027, driven by enterprise digital transformation and the integration of AI into OA systems [2][45] Market Space and Growth Potential - The OA market is expected to grow to RMB 34.2 billion by 2027, with Fanwei Network and Zhiyuan Interconnection projected to achieve revenue growth of 1.4x and 1.6x, respectively, compared to 2023 levels [2][45] - The growth is driven by the increasing complexity of collaborative management needs, the integration of AI into OA systems, and the ongoing domestic substitution in the software industry [2][45] Key Players and Competitive Advantages - Fanwei Network and Zhiyuan Interconnection are highlighted as the leading players in the OA market, with strong product portfolios, efficient management, and robust channel strategies [2][26] - Fanwei Network's unique EBU (Empowered Business Unit) model and Zhiyuan Interconnection's shift from distribution to direct sales have strengthened their market positions [26][31] - Both companies have developed comprehensive product matrices that cater to large, medium, and small enterprises, with a focus on integrating AI and Xinchuang-compatible solutions [26][38] Technological Trends and AI Integration - AI is reshaping the OA landscape by enhancing the value of collaborative management software through improved functionality and user experience [20][43] - Fanwei Network and Zhiyuan Interconnection are actively integrating AI into their products, with Fanwei launching the "Smart Little e" assistant and Zhiyuan developing AI-COP frameworks to enhance intelligent office capabilities [43][44] Industry Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The OA industry is highly fragmented, with product-driven companies like Fanwei and Zhiyuan holding a competitive edge due to their strong R&D capabilities and brand influence [21][24] - The industry is expected to see further consolidation, with leading companies likely to capture a larger market share as customer demands for advanced, integrated solutions increase [24][25]

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The semiconductor sector is identified as a key investment direction in the current bull market, with significant potential for further appreciation. As of October 8, 2024, the Shenwan Semiconductor Industry Index reached 4554 points, marking a 16.6% increase from the previous trading day and a cumulative increase of 57.6% since September 23, 2024. The index remains approximately 61.2% below its five-year high, indicating substantial room for growth [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Semiconductor Industry Index has shown a significant recovery, with a 57.6% increase since September 23, 2024, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 32.5% in the same period. The semiconductor index's performance relative to the CSI 300 indicates a lower position, suggesting potential for further gains [2][3] Key Investment Drivers 1. **Self-Sufficiency**: The domestic semiconductor industry faces a significant capacity gap, with external restrictions accelerating the push for localization. Key areas include: - Advanced manufacturing, where domestic capacity is only 8% as of 2023, indicating substantial growth potential [3] - AI chip development, spurred by restrictions on acquiring advanced chips from overseas [3] - Automotive chip localization, which is expected to accelerate due to supply chain impacts from foreign restrictions [3] 2. **Cycle Reversal**: The semiconductor industry is believed to be at the end of a downturn cycle, with signs of recovery as inventory levels normalize and demand gradually rebounds. The overall revenue and performance of semiconductor companies are expected to improve significantly in the first half of 2024 [5][6] 3. **Technological Innovation**: The upcoming technological cycle, particularly driven by AI and electric vehicle (EV) advancements, is anticipated to be a major growth driver. The semiconductor market for automotive applications is projected to grow from $53.04 billion in 2021 to $103.85 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 8.8% [6] Recommended Focus Areas - Key companies to watch include: - **Wafer Foundries**: SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and others [6] - **Packaging and Testing**: Changdian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and others [6] - **Equipment and Materials**: Northern Huachuang, AMEC, and others [6] - **AI and Computing Chips**: Haiguang Information, Cambricon, and others [6] - **Analog and Storage Chips**: Zhaoyi Innovation, Beijing Junzheng, and others [6]

Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Outperform the Market (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The European Union has approved a proposal to impose anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which may impact the competitive landscape [1][8] - Ideal and Xiaopeng have achieved record monthly delivery numbers, indicating strong demand and operational performance [1][8] - NIO is expanding into the Middle East and North Africa, enhancing its global presence and addressing local electric vehicle demand [1][8] - BYD has reported a record monthly sales figure of 419,426 new energy vehicles in September, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45.91% [1][9] Industry Key News - The EU's proposal to impose anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles received necessary support from member states, with tariffs expected to range from 17% to 36.3% [1][8] - Ideal Auto delivered 53,709 vehicles in September, a year-on-year increase of 48.9%, while Xiaopeng delivered 21,352 vehicles, marking a significant increase [1][8] - NIO has signed a strategic cooperation agreement to establish a technology R&D center in Abu Dhabi, focusing on smart driving and AI technology [1][8] - Ideal has launched a new generation of smart driving technology, enhancing user experience [1][8] - BYD's sales in September surpassed 41,000 units, marking a historic high for monthly deliveries [1][9] - Toyota and Subaru plan to jointly develop electric vehicles for release in 2026, targeting markets in Japan, the US, and Europe [1][8] Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the broader market, with the A-share automotive index rising by 8.94% compared to the 8.48% increase in the CSI 300 index [2] - The passenger vehicle segment saw significant gains, with companies like Li Auto and Xiaopeng leading the charge [2][7] New Vehicle Launches - The Star Sea S7, a new electric vehicle, was launched on September 30, 2024, with a price range of 119,800 to 154,900 CNY [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the SaaS industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [3]. Core Insights - The SaaS business model is characterized by flexibility and resilience, with numerous high-performing companies emerging across various segments. SaaS allows users to access software solutions via the internet, offering advantages such as lower initial costs, ease of deployment, rapid updates, and strong scalability [3]. - The SaaS market in China reached a scale of 58.1 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of approximately 23.1%. Despite a decline in growth rate, the overall market continues to show steady growth, with increasing penetration rates. The entry of AI technologies is expected to inject new vitality into the SaaS sector [4]. - SaaS companies are highly correlated with macroeconomic conditions, and they are likely to benefit from policy support and economic recovery. The government's emphasis on monetary and fiscal policy coordination is expected to enhance the outlook for the macroeconomy, which in turn will positively impact SaaS companies [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report highlights the significant price elasticity of SaaS companies, with notable stock price increases from 2019 to 2021, outperforming the broader computer sector and the CSI 300 index [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in both general and vertical SaaS sectors, including Fanwei Network, Zhiyuan Interconnection, and Kingdee International, among others [5].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 食品饮料 2024 年 10 月 07 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------|-------|------------------|-------|----------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 政策强刺激下信心回升，乐观看待本 | | 食品饮料 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 优于大市 | | | 轮行情 | | | | | | | 食品饮料行业周报 | | 20240923-20240930 | 证券分析师 熊鹏 资格编号：S0120522120002 邮箱：xiongpeng＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 食品饮料 沪深300 -43% 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《食品饮料行业周报 20240916- 20240920-茅台注销式回 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the fourth quarter [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights four main investment themes for the pharmaceutical sector: 1) rebound of undervalued blue-chip stocks and benefiting Hong Kong stocks, 2) focus on companies with positive short-term changes and a price-to-book (PB) ratio less than 1, 3) companies with solid fundamentals supporting long-term growth, and 4) companies expected to have high earnings growth in the second half of 2024 [2][5][6]. Summary by Sections Main Investment Themes - **Theme 1: Undervalued Blue-Chip Stocks and Benefiting Hong Kong Stocks** - The market sentiment has quickly recovered following central bank policies and political meetings, leading to a rebound in the pharmaceutical sector. Key focus areas include undervalued blue-chip stocks and industry leaders, as well as quality Hong Kong consumer and innovative companies benefiting from U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts [5][6]. - **Theme 2: Companies with Positive Short-Term Changes and PB < 1** - The report suggests focusing on companies with positive changes, particularly those with a PB ratio less than 1, especially state-owned enterprises. Companies expected to benefit from short-term pharmaceutical policies, mergers, and buybacks are highlighted [6][7]. - **Theme 3: Companies with Solid Fundamentals for Long-Term Growth** - Emphasis is placed on companies with strong fundamentals and logical business models, as these are expected to provide long-term valuation support. Recommended companies include those in the pharmaceutical sector with stable fundamentals [7][8]. - **Theme 4: Companies with High Earnings Growth Expectations for 2024H2** - The report advises focusing on companies expected to exceed market earnings expectations in the second half of 2024 and into 2025, indicating significant growth potential [8]. Market Performance Review - From September 23 to September 30, 2024, the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index rose by 28.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.6%. However, year-to-date, the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index has declined by 7.2%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 24.3% [8][10][13]. Notable Stocks - The report identifies several stocks to watch, including: - **Undervalued Blue-Chip Stocks**: Aier Eye Hospital, Tongce Medical, Huaxia Eye Hospital, and others [6]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: Jinxin Fertility, Haijia Medical, etc. [6]. - **Strong Fundamentals**: Heng Rui Medicine, Innovent Biologics, and others [7]. Sector Valuation - As of September 30, 2024, the overall valuation of the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Sector is 32.4, reflecting a 7.2 increase since the beginning of the year, ranking it 9th among Shenwan's first-level classifications [11]. Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Sector in the past two weeks was 555.3 billion, accounting for 7.0% of the total A-share trading volume, with a significant increase of 250% compared to the previous trading period [12]. Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 15.9% in the week from September 30 to October 4, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 5.7% [17]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed overview of the current state and future outlook of the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting key investment opportunities and market dynamics.