[Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 07 月 28 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•国防军工 军工行业周报（7.22-7.28） 国防军工业绩复苏在即，建议积极配置 [上周（ Table_Summary 7月 22日-]7月 28日），SW 军工板块报收 1239.2点，上涨 1.4%，板 块排名第 1，商业航天指数(8841877)涨幅达 6.2%。同期沪深 300 指数下跌 3.7%，创业板指数下跌3.8%。 2024H1 跟踪速递： 半年度业绩预告跟踪：上半年业绩低迷，静待拐点。截至 7月 26日，共 40家 军工上市公司发布业绩预告，其中 26家企业净利润预计同比降低/转亏：10家 上市公司预计净利润同比增加/减亏；3 家上市公司预计扭亏为盈；1 家上市公 司暂不确定。从目前发布预告的公司业绩情况看，2024年上半年行业整体订单 和业绩仍处于低迷。预计随着订单合同的陆续下达，行业业绩将迎来修复与反 转。 半年报跟踪：截至 7月 26日，共 1家军工上市公司发布中报：航亚科技 2024H1 归母净利润同比增长 98%。 10754 军工研究： 商业航天：G60 星座首批 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.98 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.62 billion yuan, up 7.6% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of 14.0 billion yuan, reflecting a 26.0% year-on-year increase and a 27.6% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - The copper market is expected to see a long-term upward trend in prices due to increasing supply-demand gaps, with demand benefiting from high growth in the new energy sector. The company’s copper production is projected to reach 160,000 tons in 2024, contributing significantly to profit growth [2][3]. Company Summary - The company’s copper, zinc, and lead concentrate production for H1 2024 was 85,000 tons, 53,000 tons, and 28,000 tons respectively, with year-on-year changes of +42%, -12%, and -10%. The electrolytic copper production was 121,548 tons, up 44.1% year-on-year [2]. - The average prices for copper, lead, and zinc increased by 14%, 22%, and 14% respectively in H1 2024 [2]. - The company has completed the technical upgrades for the Yulong copper mine, which is expected to enhance production capacity significantly [2]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for the next three years is 3.51 billion yuan, 4.24 billion yuan, and 4.42 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.47 yuan, 1.78 yuan, and 1.85 yuan. The PE ratios are projected to be 11, 9, and 9 times respectively [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is to "continue to pay attention" based on the potential for increased operational income through strategic acquisition and leasing of second-hand ships [7][31]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 500 million, 748 million, and 900 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.55, 0.82, and 0.98 yuan, leading to PE ratios of 17x, 11x, and 10x [7][31]. - The shipping market is experiencing a recovery, with significant increases in the import volumes of Brazilian iron ore and Guinean bauxite, which is expected to enhance the company's operational efficiency and profitability [6][31]. - The company is optimizing its fleet and managing costs effectively, resulting in a substantial year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024 [31]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - The company anticipates revenues of 1,705.34 million, 3,120.69 million, 4,218.30 million, and 4,895.45 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 82.99%, 35.17%, and 16.05% [8][25]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 185.04 million, 500.16 million, 747.93 million, and 900.19 million yuan for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 170.30%, 49.54%, and 20.36% [8][25]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 5.09% in 2023 to 12.42% in 2024, reaching 16.00% and 16.59% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [8][25]. Market Dynamics - The global shipping market is recovering, with the Baltic Sea Index (BSI) average expected to be 1,430.47, 1,573.52, and 1,573.52 for the years 2024 to 2026 [10][12]. - The supply-demand balance in the dry bulk shipping market is tightening, with a forecasted supply-demand gap of 0.8% in 2024 and -2.2% in 2025, which is expected to support high freight rates [32]. Operational Strategy - The company is enhancing its fleet capacity through the acquisition of second-hand ships and long-term leasing, with an expected increase in controlled bulk carrier capacity of 20%, 15%, and 10% from 2024 to 2026 [12][31]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its global route layout and improving operational efficiency to reduce costs and strengthen profitability [6][31].

VD3、VE等持续涨价，关注维生素提价持续性 -原料药板块202402跟踪报告 西南证券研究发展中心 2024年7月 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 核 心 观 点 2024年原料药最新报价及行情回顾（报价截至2024年7月26日）： ロ 价格上涨品种：大宗原料药中，维生素类：维生素D3在2024年7月价格为240元/千克(环比+182.4%，同比 +306.8%) , 维生素E价格为92.5元/千克(环比+17.1% , 同比+27.6%) , 维生素B1价格为195元/千克(环比+6.8% , 同比+69.6%)，维生素A价格为90.5元/千克(环比+3.4%，同比+4.0%)；维生素B6价格为154元/千克(环比+2.7% , 同比+14.5%）；抗生素及中间体类：青霉素工业盐2024年6月价格为150元/BOU(环比+36.4%，同比-11.8%), 6-APA价格为350元/干克(环比+9.4%，同比-5.4%)，7-ACA价格为490元/干克(环比+2.1%，同比+8.9%)；激素 类：皂素6月价格为6 ...

2024 年 07 月 29 月 译美研究体体2024 牛牛棋点评 水 井 坊（600779） ★★★★ 买入 ( ##) 当前价：35.84 无 目标价：一一无（６个月） 24Q2 实现稳健增长，臻酿八号券能延续 表美美成 ● 李仲：公司 2024上半年杂现救入 17.2亿元，同比+12.6%，炉草净利润 2.4亿 元，同比+19.5%：共中 2402 实现较入 7.9 亿元，同比+16.6%，但非许利润 0.6 亿元，同比+29.6%；24Q2 较入积利润越市场预算。 。 基础入于良性减关，被心口点稳步扩张。 1、在 24H1 受休消费环境重长，行业 林瓦沃克辛支尔明廷的背景下，球鼠入今大半品稳健成长，八大核心市场基本 查稳固, 公司实现良性成长,2.分产品, 24H1 高格酒求入 15.2 亿元, 网比+6.1%, 预计桑融入务保持稳健增长，养台及以上有所下滑：中格通救入 1.0亿元，同比 +12.8%，主卖系天爷陈新品页献增量。3、渠道站，八大林心市场基本会稳固， 延续稳健良性成长：公司持续提升有效门店数量，核心门店数量保持 20%以上 稳徙增长，잭部入今市场意盖面不断拓宽。4、乌存方面，由于消费大环 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 254.80 CNY over the next six months, based on the current price of 207.00 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 5.65 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.99%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.72 billion CNY, up 11.6% year-on-year [2]. - The growth in revenue is attributed to enhanced market planning and the expansion of sales channels, particularly in the beauty product segment, which saw a significant increase in sales [2]. - The rising price of natural cow bile has exerted pressure on gross margins, but potential easing of cost pressures is anticipated due to new import policies [2]. - The company is actively investing in innovative research and development, achieving significant milestones in new drug approvals and clinical trials [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 5.65 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 11.99%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.72 billion CNY, reflecting an 11.6% increase year-on-year [2]. - The operating profit for the first half of 2024 was 2.06 billion CNY, with a slight decline in operating profit margin due to rising costs of key raw materials [2]. Sales and Market Strategy - The company has expanded its sales channels significantly, with over 100,000 terminal stores covered through partnerships with major pharmacy chains. The beauty product segment saw a revenue increase of 83.18% in the first quarter of 2024 [2][8]. - The company has upgraded its brand image by transforming all "Pian Zai Huang Experience Halls" into "Pian Zai Huang National Medicine Halls" [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The price of natural cow bile has surged from 200,000 CNY per kilogram at the beginning of 2023 to a peak of 1.65 million CNY per kilogram in June 2024, leading to increased cost pressures [2]. - New import policies are expected to alleviate some of the cost pressures associated with natural cow bile, potentially improving profit margins [2]. Research and Development - The company has made significant progress in R&D, obtaining clinical licenses for new drugs and advancing multiple projects into critical research phases [2][8]. - The company is exploring clinical advantages of its products in various therapeutic areas, including liver disease and oncology [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 3.29 billion CNY, 3.84 billion CNY, and 4.49 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 38, 33, and 28 [3][9]. - Given the competitive landscape and expected cost reductions, the company is assigned a valuation premium, leading to a target price of 254.80 CNY based on a 40x PE for 2025 [2][9].

农林牧渔行业2024年中期投资策略 产能去化持续兑现，主线低估 西南证券研究发展中心 农林牧渔研究团队 2024年7月 核心观点 养殖板块：产能去化持续兑现，养殖产业链反转突破。2023年开始能繁母猪存栏不断下降，2024 年4月，能繁母猪存栏量为3986万头，同比下降6.9%，能繁母猪创4年新低。二季度末能繁母猪存 栏4038万头，同比减少259万头，下降6.0%，环比增加46万头，增长1.1%，产能增长较慢，盈利 期持续性好。生猪产能去化持续兑现，猪价持续走高。黄羽鸡景气度提升，截至24年5月中在产父 母代存栏处于绝对低位，黄鸡猪价关联性强，猪价上涨打开盈利空间。推荐牧原股份（002714）、 温氏股份（300498）、立华股份（300761）、华统股份（002840）。 风险提示：养殖端突发疫情，消费需求不及预期等。 动保板块：销量和净利率双向提升，新产品及国产替代发展格局广阔。生猪均价及板块盈利水平趋 势向好带动动保需求，销量和净利率双向提升。非瘟疫苗相关研究稳步推进，若未来顺利实现商业 化，新产品将推动市场扩容。宠物消费市场规模持续增长，新产品带动我国宠物疫苗国产替代正加 速推进中。综合布局生物制药 ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 07 月 28 日 跟随大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•传媒 影视传媒行业周报（0721-0727） 第 21 届 ChinaJoy 在沪开幕，谷歌构建全新 AI 天气预测模型 [Table_Summary] 行情回顾：本周，传媒板块表现一般，下跌 1.61%，跑赢创业板约 2.22 个百 分点（创业板指下跌 3.82%）；跑赢市场约 2.06 个百分点（沪深 300 下跌 3.67%）。 细分行业：（1）游戏指数跑赢市场：中信游戏指数（CI005577）下跌 1.53%， 沪深 300下跌 3.67%。中信游戏指数相对于沪深 300指数上涨 2.14%；（2） 广告指数跑赢市场：中信广告指数（CI005847）下跌 1.02%，沪深 300 下跌 3.67%。中信广告指数相对于沪深 300 指数上涨 2.64%；（3）体育指数跑赢 市场：中证体育指数（399804）下跌 1.61%，沪深 300 下跌 3.67%。中证体 育指数相对于沪深 300 指数上涨 2.06%；（4）A 股教育公司跑输沪深 300， 港股教育公司跑输恒生指数。中信教育指数 ...

2024 ✦ 07 用 28 日 译事项尤林仲打业研究·札卡 汽车行业周扱 (7.22-7.26) 發チ大市(維持) "议旧换新"补贴力度加大，购车需求将进一步释放 杖养夫点 。 教育走议： 国家友系改革委、财政部印发《指动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧 换新行动方案》，找筹实排 3000 亿元左右超长期特别国绩齐全，办力支持大 规模设备更新科消费品以旧换新。本次改革直接向地方安排 1500 亿元左右超 长朝特别国後齐会，政策支持的力度明显办大，有助于政策效果的改善。而多 半衰新救援显示，救至７月 25日，汽车以旧换新体息千台已找到汽车报废支 新补贴中请 36.4万份，半日新增已超过1万份。上半年，全国摄成汽车回救至 277.8 万辆，阿比塔长 27.6%。 泉周本才商： 新能 逐柔周丰丰丰丰贴颍皮和比 之前翻待，燃油柔用丰和比之前半丰培か 0.8 万元。从补贴颍皮科总会领明显 装升的这样未有，新政策有望在一定程度上帝功来用丰终站客未丧复，尤其是 新能源来用丰的培养有望办快，金松比亚迪/长安/华为/吉利茂辞小理等丰企在 新能源丰供给境的特续友力，新能源来用丰涉违申有望持续援升，半月涉违申 预计将稳定在 50%以上 ...

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 07 月 23 日 证券研究报告•2024 半年报业绩快报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：38.12 元 拓普集团（601689）汽车 目标价：——元（6 个月） Q2 业绩高增长，平台化战略持续推进 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024 半年度业绩快报，24H1 实现营收 122.27 亿元，同比 +33.5%；归母净利润 14.52亿元，同比+32.7%；扣非归母净利润 12.95亿元， 同比+26.1%。其中 24Q2实现营收 69.39亿元，同比+39%，环比+15%；归母 净利润 8.07亿元，同比+25.3%，环比+25%；扣非归母净利润 6.99亿元，同比 +15.2%，环比+17.3%，Q2 业绩实现高增长，表现亮眼。 Q2业绩超预期，客户结构持续优化。报告期内，公司围绕既定战略，不断提升 销售，降低成本，经营绩效保持持续增长态势。24Q2公司主要客户销量实现增 长，公司 Tier0.5级创新商业模式持续被客户接受和认可，单车配套高价值的智 能电动车企客户群体不断扩大，客户结构持续优化。 产品平台化战略不断推进。依托研发创 ...