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2024年7月PMI数据点评:景气度季节性回落,期待新一轮政策加力
Southwest Securities· 2024-08-01 06:00
Manufacturing PMI - Manufacturing PMI in July 2024 fell by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4%, remaining below the boom-bust line for three consecutive months[1] - New orders index dropped by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, indicating weak demand for three consecutive months[1] - Production index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.1%, still in expansion but showing a downward trend for three months[1] Large vs. Small Enterprises - Large enterprises' PMI rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.5%, while medium and small enterprises' PMI fell by 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points to 49.4% and 46.7%, respectively[1] - Large enterprises' production and new orders indices remained in expansion at 52.1% and 50.6%, supporting stable manufacturing operations[8] Price Indices and Inventory - Raw material purchase price index dropped by 1.8 percentage points to 49.9%, falling below the boom-bust line for the first time in a year[12] - Finished product inventory index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 47.8%, indicating weak inventory replenishment[13] Non-Manufacturing PMI - Non-manufacturing PMI declined by 0.3 percentage points to 50.2%, with services PMI touching the boom-bust line at 50.0% for the first time in seven months[17] - Construction PMI fell by 1.1 percentage points to 51.2%, affected by seasonal factors and slower local government bond issuance[18] Export and Import - New export orders index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 48.5%, while import index increased by 0.1 percentage points to 47.0%, both remaining below the boom-bust line[4] - Short-term export resilience is expected due to potential preemptive export actions amid trade friction concerns[4]
润本股份:研产销一体化优势突出,大品牌小品类空间广阔
Southwest Securities· 2024-08-01 06:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Runben Co., Ltd. (603193) with a target price of 24.00 CNY over the next six months, based on its strong growth potential and market positioning [1][6]. Core Insights - Runben is entering a phase of rapid revenue and profit growth, driven by the specialization and segmentation of the baby care market, which has a low brand concentration. The online sales channel is growing significantly faster than offline, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.3% from 2020 to 2023 for direct online sales [1][25]. - The company has a competitive edge through its integrated research, production, and sales model, allowing for quick product iterations and strong brand recognition among its target audience [1][4]. - The financial forecast indicates a compound annual growth rate of 30% for net profit from 2024 to 2026, with earnings per share (EPS) projected to be 0.73 CNY, 0.96 CNY, and 1.23 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Runben Co., Ltd. specializes in mosquito repellent and baby care products, with a well-established brand and a diverse product matrix [17][18]. Industry Analysis - The mosquito repellent market is steadily growing, with a market size of approximately 8 billion CNY in 2023 and a CAGR of 7.6% from 2018 to 2023. The baby care market is also expanding rapidly, with a CAGR of 11% for single-child care spending from 2017 to 2023 [1][28]. Company Analysis - Runben's integrated model enhances its product competitiveness, with a focus on high cost-performance and innovation. The company has a strong online presence, with 60.1% of its revenue coming from direct online sales [1][23][25]. Growth Potential - There is significant room for improvement in average transaction value and repurchase rates, particularly in underdeveloped markets. The company aims to enhance brand recognition and expand its offline presence [1][4][25]. Financial Analysis - The company has shown robust financial growth, with revenue increasing from 280 million CNY in 2019 to over 1 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 38.7%. The net profit also grew significantly during this period [19][21].
雅克科技:LNG板材、HBM景气向上,平台型公司发展可期
Southwest Securities· 2024-07-31 10:30
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company. Core Views - The company is positioned as a platform-type enterprise in electronic materials through global acquisitions, having expanded its business from flame retardants to LNG insulation materials and various electronic materials [2][12]. - The LNG shipping market is performing strongly, with the company holding a full order book for its insulation materials, which will continue to contribute to its performance in the coming years [3][46]. - The company benefits from the domestic substitution demand for color photoresists as panel production capacity shifts eastward, with expectations for increased market share following the local production of photoresist products [4][20]. - The rapid development of AI models is driving high demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which in turn boosts the demand for semiconductor precursors, with the global precursor market projected to grow significantly by 2028 [5][28]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1997, the company initially focused on foaming agents and later entered the flame retardant industry, becoming the only domestic supplier of LNG insulation materials certified by GTT and classification societies [2][12]. - The company has made several acquisitions since 2016 to expand into electronic materials, including silicon micropowder, electronic specialty gases, semiconductor precursors, and various types of photoresists [2][12]. Market Performance - The LNG shipping market has seen a surge in demand due to greenhouse gas reduction policies and geopolitical factors, with the company being the sole domestic supplier of LNG insulation materials, ensuring a robust order pipeline [3][46]. - The domestic market for color photoresists is still developing, with the company positioned as a key supplier to major panel manufacturers, benefiting from the shift in production capacity [4][20]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a record revenue of 4.738 billion yuan in 2023, primarily driven by its photoresist and precursor businesses [2][28]. - The company has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.3% in revenue from 2018 to 2023, with net profit also showing significant growth during this period [28][31]. Competitive Advantages - The company holds a strong market position in electronic materials, supplying major semiconductor manufacturers and being the first domestic supplier of LNG insulation materials [20][28]. - The company has a solid R&D focus, with increasing investment in technology development to enhance its competitive edge [36][37].
卫星互联网专题(三):从发射到终端,我国低轨运力和卫星应用梳理
Southwest Securities· 2024-07-31 10:03
卫星互联网专题 ( 三 ) 从发射到终端,我国低轨运力和卫星应用梳理 西南证券研究发展中心 通信研究团队 2024年7月 核心要点 ● 卫星组网即将开启 , 大国博弈背景下的内需新增量。据财联社, "干帆星座" 首批组网卫星发射仪式将于8月5日在太原举行,将以首批1箭18 星拉开我国卫星互联网组网大幕。目前,我国已向国际电联申请了GW星座、干帆星座、鸿鹄星座等低轨卫星星座,申请卫星数量总数近4万颗, 组网发射即将开启。低轨卫星不仅在民用通信发挥重要作用,在紧急时期也将承担军用特殊任务,如Starlink为美国军方提供了"星盾"的卫 星通信服务。因此,我们认为在国家间太空资源博弈的背景下,低坑卫星产业的国产化率有望维持在较高的水平,海量的低轨卫星和商业火箭 制造需求将成为我国内需的新增量。 ● 我国低轨运力能否支撑星座建设?商业火箭和智慧发射场将有效提供运力支持。我国国家队主力火箭为长征系列火箭,除部分型号专用于载人 航天或深空探测外,大部分火箭型号可用于低轨载荷发射,且在研的长征六号X/长征九号/长征八号R等改型将能够重复使用,将为我国低轨卫 星组网提供国家队运力。商业火箭方面,我国目前已有6家商业火箭公司成 ...
恩华药业:业绩稳健增长,创新研发加速推进
Southwest Securities· 2024-07-31 07:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.76 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 630 million yuan, up 15.5% [2] - The growth is driven by the strong performance of new products "Jingru Shua A" and "Aosailidin," alongside effective market penetration in county-level healthcare and the sleep market [2] - The company continues to invest in R&D, with 320 million yuan allocated in the first half of 2024, a 13% increase year-on-year, and multiple clinical trials underway for innovative drugs [2] Summary by Sections Performance Summary - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 2.76 billion yuan, a 15.1% increase - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 630 million yuan, reflecting a 15.5% growth - The gross margin stood at 72.5%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points, while the net margin remained stable at 22.67% [2] R&D and Innovation - R&D expenses accounted for 10.9% of revenue, an increase of 1 percentage point - The company is advancing several clinical projects, including one Phase III and two Phase II trials, with plans to submit three clinical applications in the second half of 2024 [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Advice - The company is expected to generate net profits of 1.21 billion yuan, 1.42 billion yuan, and 1.74 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 16, and 13 [3] - The report emphasizes the potential of TRV130 to continuously drive performance [3]
药明康德:Q2收入利润环比改善,在手订单增长稳健
Southwest Securities· 2024-07-31 06:30
[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 07 月 30 日 证券研究报告•2024 年半年报点评 买入 (维持) 当前价:40.69 元 药明康德(603259)医药生物 目标价:——元(6 个月) Q2 收入利润环比改善,在手订单增长稳健 [Table_Summary 事件:公司发布] 2024年半年报,2024年半年度实现收入 172.4亿元,同比下滑 8.6%,实现归母净利润 42.4亿元,同比下滑 20.2%,经调整 Non-IFRS 归母净 利润 43.7 亿元,同比下滑 14.2%。 2024H1 业绩符合预期,剔除新冠项目后实现稳健增长。2024H1 公司业绩平稳 增长,其中剔除新冠商业化项目后收入同比下滑 0.7%;在原有活跃客户 6000+ 基础上新增客户 500+,在手订单 431亿元,剔除新冠商业化项目后+33.2%;全 球 Top20药企客户贡献收入 65.9亿元,剔除新冠商业化项目后+11.9%;小分子 D&M 管线持续扩张,2024H1 新增分子644 个,目前管线分子共 3319 个。 2024Q2收入、利润环比改善,一体化赋能平台持续驱动业务增长。公司持续强 化 ...
均胜电子:盈利水平持续提升,新业务订单保持强劲增长
Southwest Securities· 2024-07-31 04:03
2024 ↑ 07 ↑ 30 ↑ 证 事研究教師•2024 牛牛皮 业纳快 袜 养 均胜电子(600699) 允养 买入 (焦片) 考前价:14.99 元 目标价:22.68 元(6个月) 盈利水平持续提升,新业务订单保持强劲增长 教养养 ● 李仲: (1) 7月 29日,公司发布 2024 辛辛度业绩长报,2024H1 公司实现容 业状入约 271 亿元,同比增长约 0.24%,较 2023H2 下降约 5.7%;实现归非许 村洞的 6.38 亿元,同比增长的 34%,较 2023H2 增长的 5%,构非归非净村洞 6.40 亿元,同比增长约 61%,较 2023H2增长约 5%。共中 2024Q2,公司实现 容量被入的 138亿元,同环比分别塔长的 0.1%/ 3.9%:实现归非许利润的 3.31 亿元,同环比分别增长约 20%/ 8%:构非归非净利润 3.29亿元,同环比分别增 长约 25%/ 6%。 (2) 7月 27日,公司发布《关于变让控股子公司少贫股东邻分 殷份的公告》, 拟通过控股子公司 JSS HOLDING HONG KONG LIMITED以 2.83 亿美元素等佳人民币的价格查让 PA ...
人福医药:麻醉药稳健增长,归核聚焦持续推进
Southwest Securities· 2024-07-31 03:30
[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 07 月 28 日 证券研究报告•2024 半年报点评 持有 (维持) 当前价:18.70 元 人福医药(600079)医药生物 目标价:——元(6 个月) 麻醉药稳健增长,归核聚焦持续推进 [Table_Summary] 业绩总结:公司 2024 上半年实现营业收入 128.6 亿元(+3.86%),实现归母 净利润 11.1 亿元(-16.07%),主要系上年同期公司出售资产实现的非经常性 损益高于本报告期所致;扣非归母净利润 10.89 亿元(+1.68%)。 宜昌人福保持快速增长,非麻醉科室增速较快。宜昌人福继续推进多科室临床 应用工作,报告期内神经系统用药实现销售收入约 37.4 亿元(+11.2%),其中 在非麻醉科室实现销售收入约 12.86 亿元(+18%)。 各子公司稳健增长,稳步推进国际化发展。(1)医药工业:在呼吸道疾病用药 需求下降的情况下,葛店人福持续拓展高端原辅料业务,新疆维药加快拓展疆 外市场,业绩均保持稳步增长;三峡制药积极推进工艺改进,控制生产成本, 持续减亏。(2)医药商业:湖北人福持续提升产品引进及分销能力,积极响应 ...
福耀玻璃:Q2业绩超预期,盈利能力持续提升
Southwest Securities· 2024-07-31 03:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - Q2 2024 performance exceeded expectations with significant growth in revenue and net profit [2] - Revenue for H1 2024 reached 183.4 billion yuan, up 22% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 34.99 billion yuan, up 23.4% YoY [2] - Q2 2024 revenue was 95.04 billion yuan, up 19.1% YoY and 7.6% QoQ, with net profit of 21.11 billion yuan, up 9.8% YoY and 52.1% QoQ [2] - Profitability continues to improve, with H1 2024 total profit reaching 41.25 billion yuan, up 24.3% YoY [2] - High-value-added products are driving ASP growth, with automotive glass ASP increasing by 5.94% YoY to 213.24 yuan per square meter in 2023 [2] - The company's market share is expanding, with global automotive glass sales reaching 140.16 million square meters in 2023, up 10.24% YoY [2] - Capital expenditure for 2024 is planned at 8.123 billion yuan to support capacity expansion [2] Financial Forecasts - EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.55/2.99/3.51 yuan, with a CAGR of 17.6% for net profit attributable to shareholders [3] - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 396.73/461.25/525.83 billion yuan, with growth rates of 19.64%/16.26%/14.00% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is expected to be 66.65/78.10/91.59 billion yuan, with growth rates of 18.39%/17.19%/17.27% [4] - ROE is projected to increase from 19.68% in 2024 to 22.77% in 2026 [4] Industry and Market Position - The automotive glass industry is highly concentrated, and the company benefits from stable supply chains and cost advantages [2] - The company's focus on high-value-added products, cost control, and R&D investment gives it a competitive edge [2] - The trend towards automotive electrification and intelligence is driving market expansion, benefiting the company's product mix and ASP growth [2]
AI专题:从模型视角看端侧AI:模型技术持续演进,交互体验有望升级
Southwest Securities· 2024-07-30 13:03
AI专题•从模型视角看端侧AI 模型技术持续演进,交互体验有望升级 西南证券研究发展中心 海外研究团队 2024年7月 核心观点 口 基础的构建:模型实现高效压缩是端侧AI的第一步。模型尺寸变小、同时具备较好性能 , 是端侧AI 的前提。目前,在10B参数规模以下的模型中,7B尺寸占据主流,3B及以下小模型仍在探索,部分 小模型性能正逐步接近更大参数模型,如谷歌Gemini-Nano模型在部分测试基准上接近Gemini- Pro、Meta Llama-3-8B模型表现可与Llama-2-70B匹敌。模型厂商为兼顾模型尺寸与性能,在算 法优化上进行积极探索,在模型压缩技术、稀疏注意力机制、多头注意力变体等领域取得持续进展 , 帮助模型减少参数、降低存算需求 , 同时保持较好的性能 , 为端侧AI奠定小模型的基础。 口 落地的关键:模型适配终端硬件是端侧AI的第二步。小语言模型(SLM)不完全等于端侧模型,在 模型实现高效压缩后,需要进一步与手机硬件进行适配,帮助小模型装进终端。从众多小模型论文 中可以发现,当前主要存在内存、功耗、算力三大硬件瓶颈。其中,苹果在其论文《LLM in a flash》中指出,70亿 ...