Trade Overview - In the first nine months of 2024, China's total goods trade (imports and exports) reached $45,458.2 billion, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, with export growth at 4.3% and import growth at 2.2%[3] - The trade surplus expanded to $689.5 billion, up from $622.4 billion in the same period of 2023[3] Monthly Performance - In September 2024, exports grew by only 2.4%, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points compared to August, while imports rose by 0.3%, down by 0.2 percentage points[3] - The trade surplus for September was $81.71 billion, higher than the $75.12 billion recorded in the same month last year[3] External Factors - Extreme weather events, such as typhoons, caused delays at major Chinese container ports, contributing to the decline in export growth[3] - Weak manufacturing performance in the US and Europe, with the US ISM manufacturing index at 47.2% and the Eurozone manufacturing PMI at 45%, indicates ongoing external demand challenges[3] Trade Partners - Exports to the EU increased, while exports to ASEAN, South Korea, and Japan saw declines; exports to the US remained stable[6] - In the first nine months, trade with ASEAN totaled $715.77 billion, a 7.4% increase year-on-year, making it China's largest trading partner[6] Commodity Exports - Major commodities like automobiles, ships, and home appliances saw export growth exceeding 20%, while exports of grains and traditional Chinese medicine declined[9] - High-tech product exports turned from a 9.11% increase to a 1.15% decrease in September, indicating a significant slowdown in this sector[10] Import Trends - Agricultural imports, including grains and soybeans, showed growth, with grain imports up by 7.8% year-on-year, while edible oil imports fell by 24.1%[11] - The import growth rate for mechanical and high-tech products slowed, with mechanical product imports increasing by 7.8% and high-tech product imports by 11.9%[12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yituo Co., Ltd. (601038) with a target price of 20.91 CNY over the next six months, based on a current price of 17.42 CNY [1][7]. Core Views - The agricultural machinery industry is expected to benefit from favorable policies, with a record high subsidy of 24.6 billion CNY for agricultural machinery purchases in 2024, which is anticipated to stimulate demand [1][5]. - Yituo Co., Ltd. holds the leading market share in the medium and large tractor segment, with a market share of 24% in 2022, and is well-positioned to benefit from the growth in this segment [1][5]. - The company's export of tractors is projected to become a significant growth driver, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37% from 2021 to 2023 [1][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yituo Co., Ltd. is a long-established state-owned enterprise in the tractor market, originally founded in 1955, and has undergone significant transformations, including a public listing in 2012 [14][18]. Tractor Industry - The global agricultural machinery market exceeds 1 trillion CNY, with China's agricultural machinery market size over 500 billion CNY, where tractors account for approximately 30% [1][31]. - The demand side is supported by new agricultural machinery purchase subsidies and equipment renewal policies, while the supply side sees an improving competitive landscape with a market concentration nearing 50% in the medium and large tractor segment [1][25]. Export Growth - China's agricultural machinery and parts exports reached 13.28 billion USD in 2023, with tractors transitioning from small to medium and large models, indicating a growing trend in exports [1][5]. - Major export markets for Chinese tractors include Europe and Asia, which account for 30-40% of total exports [1][5]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.18 billion CNY, 1.38 billion CNY, and 1.56 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a three-year compound growth rate of 16% [2][7]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the next three years are 17, 14, and 13 times, respectively [7]. Market Position - Yituo Co., Ltd. is recognized as the leading player in the medium and large tractor market, with a focus on high-end product development and international market expansion [1][5].

Group 1: Food and Beverage - The report continues to recommend the liquor sector and leading consumer goods companies, emphasizing the positive impact of expansionary fiscal policies and structural tax reductions on the food and beverage industry [1] - For liquor, the long-term configuration value remains strong, with major liquor companies generating revenues of 756.3 billion yuan and profits of 232.8 billion yuan in 2023, indicating a robust market despite short-term pressures [1] - The market share of leading liquor brands is expected to continue increasing due to brand culture, pricing strategies, and consumer recognition, with a projected market share of around 35% when including regional brands [1] - In the consumer goods sector, beer companies are expected to see price increases despite overall sales pressure, with a focus on premium product upgrades [2] Group 2: Dairy and Condiments - The dairy sector is experiencing profit elasticity due to lower raw milk prices and improved efficiency in cost management, with expectations for continued upward profitability in the medium to long term [2] - The condiment industry is benefiting from the recovery of the B-end restaurant sector and the health trend in C-end products, leading to improved industry dynamics and growth opportunities [2] Group 3: Light Industry - The home goods sector is anticipated to recover as real estate policies stimulate demand, with leading companies likely to benefit from industry consolidation [4] - The paper industry is expected to see price increases as economic conditions improve, with a focus on companies with strong supply-demand dynamics [4] Group 4: Real Estate - The report outlines three key measures to stabilize the real estate market, including the use of special bonds for land acquisition, support for purchasing existing homes for affordable housing, and tax policy optimization [5] - These measures aim to balance supply and demand in the real estate market and alleviate liquidity pressures on developers [5] Group 5: Electric and New Energy - The photovoltaic sector is projected to grow rapidly in 2024, driven by falling component prices and global economic recovery, with N-type technology expected to become mainstream [6] - The electric power equipment sector is set for growth due to increased investment in power grids, particularly in high-voltage projects, with a focus on smart grid upgrades [7] - The energy storage market is expected to grow as renewable energy penetration increases, with domestic and overseas demand showing positive trends [7] Group 6: Machinery and New Economy - The general equipment sector is transitioning from active destocking to passive destocking, with improved demand expectations [8] - The rail transit equipment sector is expected to maintain high investment levels, with significant growth anticipated in the second half of 2024 [8] - The report highlights opportunities in new economic sectors such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economy, suggesting a focus on core industry players [8]

Group 1: Tesla's Robotaxi Launch - Tesla's Robotaxi launch event showcased 50 units of Cybercab, which lack steering wheels, pedals, and control devices, with a production cost below $30,000 expected to start by 2026 or 2027. The current global Robotaxi penetration rate is nearly 0, indicating significant future potential for operators, automakers, and related suppliers [1] - The introduction of Robotaxi is anticipated to accelerate the commercialization of L3+ autonomous driving, enhancing public awareness and acceptance of L3 high-level intelligent driving. The current penetration rates for advanced autonomous driving remain low globally, with Tesla leading the industry transformation [1] - The event highlighted two product forms of Robotaxi: the passenger Cybercab and the RoboVan for public transport, both equipped with advanced AI systems and wireless charging technology. Cybercab can accommodate 2 passengers, while RoboVan can carry up to 20 passengers or transport goods [1] Group 2: Market Potential and Entertainment Integration - As of mid-2024, China's vehicle ownership exceeds 400 million, with approximately 24.72 million being electric vehicles. This high vehicle ownership suggests a potential entertainment market worth hundreds of billions, especially with technological breakthroughs [2] - Cars possess essential characteristics for becoming entertainment platforms, including a large user base, extended travel times, minimal space constraints for equipment, and a private environment that allows for immersive experiences [2] - The advancement of intelligent driving technology is expected to resolve core issues hindering in-car entertainment development, such as the need for driver focus and visual conflicts caused by manual driving, thereby enhancing the overall entertainment experience [2] Group 3: Electric Vehicle and Battery Market Insights - In 2024, overseas electric vehicle (EV) sales are projected to grow by over 30%, while domestic EV sales are expected to increase by around 20%. The overall supply-demand situation in the industry remains relatively loose, with profitability anticipated to have bottomed out [3] - The energy storage sector is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of renewable energy, with positive trends in domestic bidding scales and stable long-term demand in overseas markets, particularly in Europe and the U.S. [3] - Industrial control companies are expected to see a recovery in orders in 2024, with a focus on domestic substitution and international market expansion, driven by sustained demand from the renewable energy sector and advancements in humanoid robotics [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not specify a clear investment rating for 康哲药业 (0867.HK) [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown signs of a performance turnaround, with a 8.9% quarter-on-quarter increase in drug sales revenue and a 92.8% increase in profit for the first half of 2024 [2][19]. - The successful NDA approval of Lucozine cream positions it as the first domestic drug for treating vitiligo, targeting a significant market of 14 million existing patients [2][11]. - The company is entering a harvest period in its innovation transformation, with five innovative drugs launched and over ten self-research projects progressing steadily [2][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Turnaround - The impact of centralized procurement has largely dissipated, with a notable improvement in performance indicators. The first half of 2024 saw a drug sales revenue of 12.3 billion yuan from three national procurement products, reflecting a 49.2% decline, but the negative effects are expected to lessen moving forward [2][19]. - The company reported a revenue of 42.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, down 22.6% year-on-year, but with a quarter-on-quarter improvement in both revenue and profit [19]. 2. Innovation Pipeline - 康哲药业 has made significant strides in its innovation strategy, with over 30 innovative products, primarily First-in-Class (FIC) and Best-in-Class (BIC) drugs. Five innovative drugs have been launched, including Diazepam nasal spray and Treziq monoclonal antibody injection [2][11]. - The company has ten self-research projects in progress, with three innovative drugs entering clinical development [2][11]. 3. Market Potential - The Lucozine cream targets a large unmet clinical need in the vitiligo market, with 14 million patients in China. It is the only drug approved globally for this indication [2][11]. - The company’s product lines include cardiovascular, digestive, ophthalmology, and dermatology, with a strong market presence across over 55,000 hospitals and approximately 280,000 retail pharmacies in China [11][19]. 4. Financial Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 78.9 billion yuan, 88.9 billion yuan, and 98 billion yuan, respectively [3][4].

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 94.50 yuan for the next 6 months [1] Core Views - The digital printing industry is experiencing rapid growth driven by multiple factors, with the domestic market for equipment and consumables expected to reach 13.1 billion yuan by 2025 [1] - The company has established a dual-drive business model of equipment and consumables, with a market share of over 50% in the domestic mid-to-high-end digital printing machine market from 2017 to 2019 [1] - The company is expanding horizontally and vertically, leveraging its expertise in textile digital printing to enter non-textile printing fields, generating 60 million yuan in revenue in 2023 [1] Industry Trends - Digital printing aligns perfectly with the "small orders, fast response" consumption trend, offering advantages such as reduced inventory and faster production cycles [1] - Environmental regulations are pushing printing companies to adopt new technologies, with digital printing reducing pollution by 40%-60% and energy consumption by 40%-50% compared to traditional methods [1] - The cost of digital printing is rapidly declining, with digital transfer printing costs now close to traditional printing at 1.27 yuan/meter compared to 0.8-1.1 yuan/meter for traditional printing [1] - The domestic digital printing equipment and consumables market is projected to reach 10.9 billion yuan and 2.4 billion yuan, respectively, by 2025 [1] Company Strategy - The company has built a dual-drive business model, leveraging its equipment to attract customers and then generating recurring revenue through high-quality, cost-effective consumables [1] - The company is expanding its product offerings beyond textiles to include book printing, building materials, and corrugated paper printing, generating 60 million yuan in revenue in 2023 [2] - The company's IPO-funded project, a smart factory capable of producing 2,000 sets of printing equipment and consumables annually, has commenced operations, with another project expected to reach full capacity by 2025 [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 1.258 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.564 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.2% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 325.26 million yuan in 2023 to 684.85 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 28.2% [3] - The company's ROE is expected to rise from 11.55% in 2023 to 15.82% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [3] Market Potential - The digital printing market is still in its early stages with low penetration and high growth potential, driven by the "small orders, fast response" trend and environmental regulations [1] - The domestic digital printing equipment and consumables market is expected to reach 13.3 billion yuan by 2025, with significant growth opportunities in both equipment and consumables [10] Competitive Advantage - The company has a strong market position in the domestic mid-to-high-end digital printing machine market, with a market share of over 50% from 2017 to 2019 [1] - The company's dual-drive model of equipment and consumables enhances customer stickiness and strengthens its competitive advantage [1] - The company is expanding its product portfolio and entering new markets, positioning itself as a platform company in the digital printing industry [2]

Market Performance - The overall performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) was weak, with the market capitalization closing at 397.67 billion yuan on October 11, 2024, reflecting a 0.1% increase from October 8, 2024[10] - The BSE 50 index outperformed the ChiNext index by approximately 3.5 percentage points, as the ChiNext index declined by about 3.4%[10] - Among 254 stocks, 37 stocks increased, 2 remained flat, and 215 stocks decreased, indicating a cautious market sentiment[11] Trading Volume and Valuation - The weekly trading volume for the BSE was 94.41 billion yuan, with an average weekly trading amount of 3.72 million yuan and a turnover rate of 45.9%, showing improved liquidity compared to the previous week[6] - The median price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the BSE was 21.8 times, which decreased by 4.8 times since September 30, 2024[6] Notable Stocks - The stock of Tongguan Mining Construction (920019.BJ) surged by 731.4%, with a TTM PE ratio of 98.9 times, while Ningxin New Materials (stock code not provided) fell by 20.5%, with a TTM PE ratio of -1305.9 times[11] - The average market capitalization of BSE component stocks was 1.57 billion yuan, compared to 8.51 billion yuan for ChiNext and 10.53 billion yuan for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board[6] Upcoming Events - The third-quarter earnings reports for BSE companies are set to begin, with Minshida expected to disclose its report, indicating a potential opportunity to focus on high-performing stocks for Q3[1] - No new stock issuance updates or company meetings are scheduled for the upcoming week[9]

202X`4[Table_ReportInfo] 年 10 月 12 日 证券研究报告•市场周评 北交所周报（10.8-10.11） 北交所从严打击惩处违规减持行为，Q3 业绩披露将拉开序幕 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------| | | | | | 摘要 | 西南证券研究发展中心 | | | [Tab ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Market Perform" for the media industry [1]. Core Insights - The media sector experienced a decline of 8.57% this week, underperforming the ChiNext by approximately 5.15 percentage points and the broader market by about 5.31 percentage points [7]. - The gaming index, represented by the CITIC Gaming Index (CI005577), fell by 9.25%, while the CITIC Advertising Index (CI005847) decreased by 6.06% [9][11]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in Mango Excellent Media (300413) and Shenzhou Taiyue (300002) [25]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The media sector's performance was generally poor, with a notable decline compared to both the ChiNext and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices [7]. 2. Gaming Industry - The CITIC Gaming Index underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 6.00% this week [9]. - The top gainers in the A-share gaming sector included Shengxunda, while the biggest losers were Sanwu Huli, Dasheng Culture, and Wentou Holdings [9]. 3. Advertising Industry - The CITIC Advertising Index fell by 6.06%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.81% [11]. - The top gainers in the A-share advertising sector were Zhipi Co., while the biggest losers included Fushi Holdings, Yinsai Group, and Tianlong Group [11]. 4. Sports Industry - The CSI Sports Index (399804) decreased by 7.59%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.34% [12]. 5. Education Industry - The CITIC Education Index (CI005816) dropped by 4.67%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.41% [14]. - The Hong Kong education index fell by 12.36%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 5.83% [14]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Mango Excellent Media and Shenzhou Taiyue as potential investment opportunities [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Market Perform" for the media industry [1]. Core Insights - The media sector experienced a decline of 8.57% this week, underperforming the ChiNext by approximately 5.15 percentage points and the broader market (CSI 300) by about 5.31 percentage points [7]. - The gaming index (CITIC 005577) fell by 9.25%, while the advertising index (CITIC 005847) decreased by 6.06%. The sports index (CSI 399804) dropped by 7.59%, and the education index (CITIC 005816) declined by 4.67% [9][11][12][14]. - Notable events in the film industry include the announcement of the "International Short Video Competition" by the National Radio and Television Administration and the premiere of the film "The Volunteer Army: The Battle of Life and Death" [25][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The media sector's performance was lackluster, with a drop of 8.57% compared to a 3.25% decline in the CSI 300 index [7]. 2. Gaming Industry - The gaming index underperformed the CSI 300 by 6.00%, with the top gainers being Shengxunda and the biggest losers being Sanwu Huli, Dasheng Culture, and Wentou Holdings [9]. - The IOS top-selling games included "Honor of Kings" and "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin" [27]. 3. Sports Industry - The sports index fell by 7.59%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 4.34% [12]. 4. Education Industry - The education index decreased by 4.67%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.41%. The Hong Kong education index dropped by 12.36%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 5.83% [14]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Mango Super Media (300413) and Shenzhou Taiyue (300002) as potential investment opportunities [25].