Group 1: Labor Market Trends - The U.S. labor market has recently weakened due to both supply and demand factors, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in July 2024, marking a significant increase from the pandemic low[14] - The share of foreign-born workers in total employment has increased from 17% in 2020 to 19.6% in the first eight months of 2024[9] - Monthly non-farm employment growth has declined to an average of 20,000 in 2024, down from over 60,000 in 2021[48] Group 2: Immigration Impact - Net immigration is projected to decrease to around 2 million in 2024, influenced by upcoming U.S. elections and potential policy changes[1] - If Kamala Harris wins the election, average annual immigration may stabilize at 2-3 million, while a Trump victory could reduce it to 700,000-1.6 million[1] - The rapid influx of illegal immigrants has contributed to structural changes in the labor market, particularly in low-skill jobs such as construction and food services[46] Group 3: Economic Implications - Wage growth has slowed, with the Employment Cost Index (ECI) dropping to 4.1% in Q2 2024, down from a peak of 5.1% in Q2 2022[54] - Rental price growth has also decelerated, with the Zillow rental index rising only 3.4% year-over-year in July 2024, significantly lower than the 15.8% peak in 2022[58] - The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals (V/U) has returned to pre-pandemic levels, indicating a potential easing of labor market tightness[54]

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2024 年 09 月 13 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 通用设备月报（0801-0831） 需求筑底，把握结构性机会 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------|----------------|-----------|---------- ...

[2024 Table_IndustryInfo 年 09 月 14 日 ] 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业周报（9.9-9.13） 持续关注医保谈判进展 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | ...

ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2024 年 09 月 13 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（9.9-9.13） 推动国内高水平对外开放，美国总统辩论打响 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 09 月 11 日 证券研究报告•新股分析报告 中草香料（920016）美容护理 本次发行情况 [发行前总股本 Tabel_PublishInfo] (万股) 5978.94 本次发行(万股) 1495.00 发行后总股本(万股) 7473.94 2023 年扣除非经常性损益后的 每股收益(摊薄后)(元)0.69 [Table_Report] WS 系列凉味剂主要供应商，募投项目再助产能突破 [Table_Summary 推荐逻辑：1）]国内 WS系列凉味剂主要供应商，WS-23产品 2021-2022年国 内市占率均约 30%，居于行业领先地位；2）WS 系列凉味剂行业快速扩张，根 据上海市食品添加剂和配料行业协会数据，WS 系列凉味剂有望部分取代薄荷 醇，发展空间广阔；3）募投项目助力产能突破，达成后每年将新增腈类 1170 吨、酰胺类（凉味剂）900吨、醛类 20吨、酯类 550吨的产能，有助于形成规 模效应，同时延伸至产业链上游，保障关键原料 DIPPN 供应。 国内 WS 系列凉味剂主要供应商，与多家国际大型知名企业进行紧密合作。目 前，公司已掌 ...

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 09 月 11 日 证券研究报告•新股分析报告 中草香料（920016）美容护理 本次发行情况 [发行前总股本 Tabel_PublishInfo] (万股) 5978.94 本次发行(万股) 1495.00 发行后总股本(万股) 7473.94 2023 年扣除非经常性损益后的 每股收益(摊薄后)(元)0.69 [Table_Report] WS 系列凉味剂主要供应商，募投项目再助产能突破 [Table_Summary 推荐逻辑：1）]国内 WS系列凉味剂主要供应商，WS-23产品 2021-2022年国 内市占率均约 30%，居于行业领先地位；2）WS 系列凉味剂行业快速扩张，根 据上海市食品添加剂和配料行业协会数据，WS 系列凉味剂有望部分取代薄荷 醇，发展空间广阔；3）募投项目助力产能突破，达成后每年将新增腈类 1170 吨、酰胺类（凉味剂）900吨、醛类 20吨、酯类 550吨的产能，有助于形成规 模效应，同时延伸至产业链上游，保障关键原料 DIPPN 供应。 国内 WS 系列凉味剂主要供应商，与多家国际大型知名企业进行紧密合作。目 前，公司已掌 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 智能驾驶专题报告 | | | | | | | | | Robotaxi | | 商业化加速，高阶智驾未来已来 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 西南证券研究发展中心 | | | | | | | | | 2024年9 | 月 | | | | | | | | 汽车研究团队 | | | | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.44 CNY over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned well within the automotive aluminum alloy precision die-casting industry, with significant growth potential driven by the trends of electrification and lightweighting in vehicles. The domestic automotive aluminum alloy market is expected to reach 302 billion CNY by 2026, with a CAGR of 14.4% from 2024 to 2026 [2][3]. - The company is transitioning towards producing larger components for new energy vehicles (NEVs), aiming for these products to account for over 30% of sales by 2025 and 70% by 2030, thus establishing a second growth curve [2][3]. - The company is expanding its global production capacity, with new facilities in North America, Southeast Asia, and Europe, which will enhance its local production capabilities and support future revenue growth [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Deepening Aluminum Alloy Precision Die-Casting - The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of aluminum alloy precision die-casting parts, primarily for automotive applications, including components for NEVs [14]. 2. Electrification and Lightweighting Trends - The average aluminum usage in vehicles is projected to increase significantly, with the domestic average expected to reach 350 kg by 2030. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this trend [2][3][43]. 3. Transition to New Energy Large Components - The company has made substantial progress in its NEV projects, with a significant portion of its sales expected to come from NEV components, particularly in the areas of body structure and battery systems [3][7]. 4. Financial Analysis - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected net profit of 10.5 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 16.8 billion CNY by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 22.5% [7][16]. 5. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a strong performance for the company, with a target price based on an 18x PE ratio for 2024, indicating confidence in its growth trajectory [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 19.44 CNY over the next six months [1][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a high-quality manufacturer of aluminum alloy precision die-casting parts, with significant growth potential driven by the trends of electrification and lightweighting in the automotive industry [2][3]. - The domestic market for automotive aluminum alloys is expected to reach 302 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4% from 2024 to 2026 [2]. - The company is transitioning towards producing larger components for new energy vehicles (NEVs), aiming for these products to account for over 30% of sales by 2025 and 70% by 2030 [3][14]. - The company has established a global production footprint, with manufacturing bases in North America, Southeast Asia, and Europe, enhancing its local production capabilities [3][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Deepening Aluminum Alloy Precision Die-Casting and Accelerating Layout of New Energy Large Components - The company focuses on the research, production, and sales of aluminum alloy precision die-casting parts, primarily for automotive applications [14]. - It aims to increase the proportion of NEV components, particularly in the three electric systems and structural parts, to over 30% by 2025 and 70% by 2030 [14]. 2. Electrification and Lightweighting Trends - The average aluminum usage in Chinese vehicles is projected to grow significantly, with a target of 350 kg per vehicle by 2030 [2][43]. - The global trend towards electrification and lightweighting is expected to drive demand for aluminum die-casting parts, with the company well-positioned to capitalize on this growth [2][37]. 3. Transitioning to New Energy Large Components - The company has made substantial progress in its NEV projects, with an order backlog of approximately 268.9 billion CNY for NEV components as of September 2023 [3][16]. - The focus on larger components for NEVs is anticipated to create a second growth curve for the company [3][7]. 4. Financial Analysis - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a CAGR of 17.8% from 2019 to 2023, driven by an optimized customer structure and ongoing project rollouts [16]. - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10.5 billion CNY, 13.6 billion CNY, and 16.8 billion CNY, respectively, indicating a CAGR of 22.5% [7][16]. 5. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 for 2024, corresponding to the target price of 19.44 CNY [7].

Export Performance - In the first eight months of 2024, China's total goods trade amounted to $40,210.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%[3] - Exports reached $23,147.7 billion, growing by 4.6% year-on-year, while imports totaled $17,062.7 billion, with a growth of 2.5%[3] - The trade surplus expanded to $608.5 billion, up from $547.3 billion in the same period of 2023[3] Monthly Trends - In August 2024, exports increased by 8.7% year-on-year, up 1.7 percentage points from July, while imports grew only 0.5%, down 6.7 percentage points[3] - The trade surplus for August reached $91.02 billion, higher than the $67.22 billion surplus in the same month last year[3] Sector Analysis - Mechanical and electrical products saw an export increase of 11.9% in August, while high-tech products grew by 9.1%, although the latter's growth rate decreased by 2.4 percentage points from the previous month[8] - Labor-intensive goods showed a mixed performance, with most categories experiencing a decline in export growth rates[7] Import Dynamics - Agricultural imports, particularly grains and soybeans, showed signs of recovery, with grain imports increasing by 6.1% year-on-year[10] - However, the import growth of raw materials and mechanical products was hindered, with significant declines in iron ore and copper imports[11] Trade Partner Performance - Exports to the US, EU, Japan, and South Korea all saw an increase, while imports from the EU and South Korea declined[5] - ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling $632.67 billion, a 7.6% increase year-on-year[5]